So, I was playing around with the game charting data, and I decided to check out some of the stats that we included in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, to see if they stayed consistent this year. One of the biggest things in the charting is yards after catch -- STATS Inc. keeps that, but they really don't do a good job of making it public, so we wanted our own numbers. We did those not just for wide receivers, but also for tight ends, running backs -- and quarterbacks, to see who got the most extra yardage from hitting receivers in stride, throwing screens, or having Santana Moss on their team.

Comparing the two seasons was pretty interesting. (Actually, we're talking about the 2005 season compared to an incomplete sample from the first 13 weeks of the 2006 season, but I digress.) It's surprising how few quarterbacks played a significant amount of time on the same team, in the same system, in both 2005 and 2006. 30 quarterbacks had at least 80 charted passes in 2005 and at least 50 charted (so far) passes in 2006. But seven are now on different teams, and five (counting Mark Brunell) are in new offensive systems this year. Both of those could be big reasons why YAC would change.

At first glance, it doesn't look like quarterback YAC has a lot of correlation from one year to the next, but actually, the correlation coefficient is .33 for all the quarterbacks, and .41 for the quarterbacks who are on the same team as last year (no matter if the coaching staff changed or not). For the NFL, that's reasonably consistent.

Last year's top quarterback in YAC was Jake Delhomme, and he's fallen to the middle of the pack this year. (No duh, since Steve Smith hasn't been as explosive or used as much as last year.) But last year's number two, Donovan McNabb, is this year's top quarterback in YAC, by far: 8.0 yards per completion. Delhomme was at 6.1 last year, and nobody is above 6.7 in our incomplete sample of 2006.

Here's the remarkable stat for people who think Jeff Garcia is actually better than Donovan McNabb in that Philadelphia offense: Garcia is last this year with just 3.8 yards after catch. In the same offense, with the same receivers. It sure doesn't look like they're calling the plays differently -- the Eagles still throw bombs and hit Westbrook on screens -- but something is clearly different.

The rest of this year's top five: Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Mark Brunell, and Brett Favre. Brunell was third last year, but Garrard was near the bottom of the YAC rankings last year. That's an overall change in the Jacksonville offense, I think -- Garrard went from 43rd to third, and Leftwich went from 33rd to eighth.

Tom Brady was one of last year's leaders, but he's middle of the pack this year with the New England "seriously, who are these guys" wide receiver plan.

Another same team, different offensive philosophy: Culpepper was second this year and Joey Harrington is third from the bottom. The bottom five: Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Joey Harrington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair. All of those guys were middle of the pack in 2005 except Hasselbeck -- with a lot of specific routes to get first downs, and running backs who suck at receiving, Hasselbeck is just not going to get YAC.

There are a lot of other guys who are near the bottom in YAC both years, though -- they just aren't bottom FIVE this season. That includes Charlie Frye, Carson Palmer (surprising, I think), and Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz