So, I was playing around with the game charting data, and I decided to check out some of the stats that we included in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, to see if they stayed consistent this year. One of the biggest things in the charting is yards after catch -- STATS Inc. keeps that, but they really don't do a good job of making it public, so we wanted our own numbers. We did those not just for wide receivers, but also for tight ends, running backs -- and quarterbacks, to see who got the most extra yardage from hitting receivers in stride, throwing screens, or having Santana Moss on their team.

Comparing the two seasons was pretty interesting. (Actually, we're talking about the 2005 season compared to an incomplete sample from the first 13 weeks of the 2006 season, but I digress.) It's surprising how few quarterbacks played a significant amount of time on the same team, in the same system, in both 2005 and 2006. 30 quarterbacks had at least 80 charted passes in 2005 and at least 50 charted (so far) passes in 2006. But seven are now on different teams, and five (counting Mark Brunell) are in new offensive systems this year. Both of those could be big reasons why YAC would change.

At first glance, it doesn't look like quarterback YAC has a lot of correlation from one year to the next, but actually, the correlation coefficient is .33 for all the quarterbacks, and .41 for the quarterbacks who are on the same team as last year (no matter if the coaching staff changed or not). For the NFL, that's reasonably consistent.

Last year's top quarterback in YAC was Jake Delhomme, and he's fallen to the middle of the pack this year. (No duh, since Steve Smith hasn't been as explosive or used as much as last year.) But last year's number two, Donovan McNabb, is this year's top quarterback in YAC, by far: 8.0 yards per completion. Delhomme was at 6.1 last year, and nobody is above 6.7 in our incomplete sample of 2006.

Here's the remarkable stat for people who think Jeff Garcia is actually better than Donovan McNabb in that Philadelphia offense: Garcia is last this year with just 3.8 yards after catch. In the same offense, with the same receivers. It sure doesn't look like they're calling the plays differently -- the Eagles still throw bombs and hit Westbrook on screens -- but something is clearly different.

The rest of this year's top five: Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Mark Brunell, and Brett Favre. Brunell was third last year, but Garrard was near the bottom of the YAC rankings last year. That's an overall change in the Jacksonville offense, I think -- Garrard went from 43rd to third, and Leftwich went from 33rd to eighth.

Tom Brady was one of last year's leaders, but he's middle of the pack this year with the New England "seriously, who are these guys" wide receiver plan.

Another same team, different offensive philosophy: Culpepper was second this year and Joey Harrington is third from the bottom. The bottom five: Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Joey Harrington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair. All of those guys were middle of the pack in 2005 except Hasselbeck -- with a lot of specific routes to get first downs, and running backs who suck at receiving, Hasselbeck is just not going to get YAC.

There are a lot of other guys who are near the bottom in YAC both years, though -- they just aren't bottom FIVE this season. That includes Charlie Frye, Carson Palmer (surprising, I think), and Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

It's time again for our weekly roundup of Sunday's action. Here's what the Football Outsiders staff was talking about this week:

"Jacksonville's first play from scrimmage against the Colts was a 76-yard Fred Taylor run. Their second play was an 18-yard run by Maurice Jones-Drew. Two rushing plays, 94 yards, one minute off the clock, touchdown. That kind of run defense is how you lose in the first round of the playoffs."

"The announcers are talking about what a fine job Brad Johnson is doing managing the game. There are approximately 100 quarterbacks on NFL rosters, and I think it's safe to say every one of them would do a fine job managing the game against the Lions' defense."

"The amazing thing about the Colts is how they can be simultaneously great and terrible. On the one hand, every play I've seen so far, the Jags have been physically manhandling them. On the other hand, they've still got a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter on the road against a good team."

"After watching Jeff Garcia the last two weeks I'm convinced he was just half-assing it in Cleveland and Detroit. He just threw a bomb to Reggie Brown and hit him right in stride, then he followed that up a few plays later with a great 4-yard touchdown pass to Stallworth. Jeff Freakin' Garcia.

"Kansas City's last three possessions: interception, Trent Green fumble, interception. Both interceptions by Ed Reed, just hanging out in center field."

"Holy ####! Vince Wilfork just got called for a personal foul because Joey Harrington tripped over him while he was lying on the ground."

"The Chiefs are now walking off the field at halftime -- at Arrowhead -- to a resounding host of boos."

"I think there are more Giants fans in Carolina than Panthers fans."

"The Colts look like a bad MAC team playing Michigan."

"With hot Tennessee and schizophrenic Jacksonville on the schedule still, the Patriots are actually in danger of blowing the division to the Jets. I'm in shock at the very thought."

"Jason Taylor is without question the Defensive Player of the Year."

"Vince Young is just plain awesome. When he gets a little more seasoning, he's going to be scary good."

"We love Arizona safety Adrian Wilson, and he just recovered a Shaun Alexander fumble caused by a perfect Robert Griffith hit. The subsequent Edgerrin James rushing touchdown gets an assist from Seattle's continued enrollment in the Indianapolis School of Tackling."

"Shanahan deserves Goat of the Century for the way he handled his quarterbacks this year. Only in the world where Super Bowls are all that matter is this decision not the worst we've seen since the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie debacle in Buffalo. Ok, you wouldn't have won a Super Bowl with Jake Plummer, but now you're going to miss the playoffs and ruin your team and your fan base's confidence in Jay Cutler."

"Cutler looks like he's about 15. The kid who mows my lawn looks older than he does."

"Fourth-and-20 for the ball game in Arizona, Matt Hasselbeck throws a 19-yard pass to Deion Branch. Branch catches it with about three yards to go, and if he pushes straight forward, I think he has it. But he tries to go sideways to get around the guy in front of him and it costs him. Can we all guess which Arizona defensive back made the game-ending tackle? Our man Adrian Wilson."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

At Football Outsiders, we use a measure called VARIANCE to track the game-to-game consistency of teams. It's pretty simple, just the variance of the 16 single-game DVOA ratings for that season. The higher the number, the less consistency.

The Jaguars' VARIANCE will change over the next four weeks, but right now it is 34.0%. That is way, way, way ahead of any other team in the NFL. Atlanta is second, at 24.9%, Kansas City third at 24.6%. Every other team falls between 6.6% and 23.6%.

I figured the Jaguars would come out as the least consistent team since 1997, the first year we have DVOA numbers. But it turns out that they are only second, and the least consistent team of the decade played just one year ago. Can you guess who they are?

Here are a couple hints:

• Philadelphia 42, Team X 0
• Washington 52, Team X 17
• Seattle 41, Team X 3

Yes, it's your 2005 San Francisco 49ers! The 49ers (VARIANCE: 35.5%) were inconsistent in a very different way than the current Jaguars. The 49ers had the worst DVOA ever, by a healthy margin, because they were blown out over and over. But they also managed to win four close games. Instead of mixing good and bad ratings like the Jaguars, the 49ers mixed average ratings with really, really bad ratings.

Here's a look at the rest of the current top five, Jaguars excluded.

2003 Bills (6-10, VARIANCE: 31.9%) -- This is the team that beat the Patriots 31-0 in their first game and lost to them 31-0 in their last game. In between, they lost games 30-3 (Jets) and 38-5 (Chiefs), but won twice by the score of 24-7 (over the Giants and Redskins).

2003 49ers (7-9, VARIANCE: 31.6%) -- They beat the Bears 49-7 on opening day but lost to Minnesota 35-7 two weeks later. They lost the first game with the 4-12 Cardinals, then beat them 50-14 in the second game -- one week after getting whipped 44-6 by Baltimore. They lost to the 5-11 Browns and beat the 12-4 Eagles.

2000 Cowboys (5-11, VARIANCE: 29.4%) -- Dallas was shut out twice: 27-0 by Baltimore, and 31-0 by Tennessee. They also beat the Cardinals 48-7 and the Bengals 23-6.

2001 Redskins (8-8, VARIANCE: 29.1%) -- This is the team that lost its first five games, then won the next five. Those first four losses were by a combined score of 135-25. After that, they were a totally different team.

What makes the current Jaguars different from these other inconsistent teams is that they are winning more often than they are losing. To find a team with a winning record, you have to go down to the 1997 Detroit Lions, who have the sixth highest VARIANCE and finished 9-7.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders or right here on FOX.

What's your favorite Jimmy Smith memory?

His 118 catch season in 2001? That's not a memory – you looked that up. His 15-catch, 291-yard, three-TD performance against the Ravens in 2000? Now we're getting somewhere. Why do you remember it? Because of that game's impact on your fantasy team, of course. Otherwise, you would have no memory of that game unless you are a Ravens or a Jaguars fan.

And we've never actually met a Jaguars fan. But we're sure they are out there.

Some people believe that Smith belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They are the kind of people who see that Smith is high on the all time receptions list and say "with numbers like that, you have no choice but to put him in." We call those people "baseball fans." Smith was a very, very good player. He was probably the best player on those Jaguars teams of the late 1990's and early 2000's. Except for Tony Boselli; that dude rocked. And Fred Taylor when he was healthy. And Mark Brunell in his best years. Yep, Smith was the second, third, or fourth best player on a team that never made the Super Bowl but certainly won a lot of games. And he led the league in receiving … never. He did finish fourth a lot. If they gave out trophies for finishing fourth or fifth in receiving yards, Smith's mantle would be full.

We've come not to bury Smith, but to praise him. Of course he's not a Canton Hall of Famer. But the guy is a shoo-in for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame. He compiled tons of stats and led team after team to fantasy championships. His legacy lives on in that Sopranos DVD you bought with the money you earned from your second place fantasy finish in 2002, the money that Smith helped you earn.

All Smith needs now is your vote. Balloting begins on Friday at Football Outsiders for the FFHoF. Come out and cast a ballot, because those who don't vote don't have a right to complain.

post by Mike Tanier

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"At 1:55 PM EST, I witness my first Eagles first down. I am not a happy dude."

"Wow. Steve McNair just threw a ball directly at two Saints defenders -- both of whom whiffed on it -- and Todd Heap gets a touchdown surprise with

seconds to go in the first half. Man, this Billick guy really is a genius."

"The Bears took a 24-0 lead before the Niners executed their 8th play from scrimmage."

"Reggie Bush has been off his game all day, and he just tried to bounce a running play outside for a three-yard loss. As #### Engberg so aptly noted, this is the difference between the Pac-10 and the NFL."

"Boomer Esiason said on CBS post-game that David Garrard was the reason the Jaguars beat the Eagles, and that the Jaguars just play better with him in there. Unbelieveable. Garrard threw for 87 yards. The Jaguars ran all over a Philly defense that bit on every misdirection and completely forgot how to wrap up tackles. The Jaguars defense was all over the Eagles, who couldn't hold onto any passes. And Garrard is the reason they won. Sure."

"David Carr has been lifted for Sage Rosenfeld. Ouch!"

"The Titans seem to have gotten their defense together the last few weeks. If they finish 5-11, will Jeff Fisher still be fired? If so, how many teams will fire their coach and hope to pick Fisher up?"

"Who had Owen Daniels in his fantasy league?"

"Note to NFL quarterbacks – if you’re facing the Seahawks, and you have third and long, just heave the ball over the middle. Your guy will have 20 yards of open space all around him."

"When Ty Law is considered for the Hall of Fame, this game won't be on his highlight film. He dropped what could have been the easiest interception of his career. A couple plays later, he fell down and Darrell Jackson was wide open to catch a floater from Seneca Wallace for the touchdown. I think there was a pump-fake and maybe Law wanted to make up for the missed interception."

"This current defense will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And it should be thing that gets them in, from a talent standpoint."

"Just got back from the Giants game. However bad the wind looked on the field, it was worse in person. Neither team could do much of anything in conditions like that. Still, I didn't like Jon Gruden's gameplan, throwing 50 passes with a rookie QB in those conditions in a game they never trailed by more than two scores.

"Imagine what the Cardinals could do if their skill position players all had a good day at the same time."

"The Colts Broncos game has turned into a battle to see which is more powerful, the Peyton Manning offense, or the colossal power of suck emanating from the galaxy-sized Hoover that is the Indianapolis run defense."

"I liken Ben Roethlisberger to an old television set. If it's a little fuzzy, you hit it once and it works great. You hit again and it's back to being fuzzy".

"Roethlisberger just threw his fourth pick, this one for a 100-yard touchdown return. The rest of his throws have been awful. I mean, they've been so bad that somewhere Tommy Maddox is saying, in between giggling uncontrollably, 'Now that's an awful interception.'"

"When was the last time you saw Randy Moss do something really impressive?"

"The Jets got screwed. Don't get me wrong, the rules are the rules, and it's a split second decision. However, they got screwed. It's their own fault. They made so many mistakes during the game to eventually putthemselves in a position in which they could get screwed. So it goes."

"It seems like Bill Parcells is auditioning for Weekend at Bernie's 3. Has he reacted to anything? False starts, turnovers, questionable calls by the official ... he just stares into space like Art Shell."

"Jake Delhomme just went through a very Drew Bledsoe-like progression. He held onto the ball too long, threw late to his first read into double coverage, and got intercepted. All he needed was a star on his helmet and cement feet."

Read more of this commentary in Audibles at the Line at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

Here's what we wrote about Reggie Williams in Pro Football Prospectus 2005:

So this is what a first round bust looks like. Williams had just 27 catches and one touchdown despite starting 15 games, and only two starting receivers in the league were below him in DVOA. Averaging less than 10 yards a reception is also a special talent. Yes, Williams was drafted in front of Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, and Keary Colbert. Williams would seemingly have to improve this season, if only because he cannot be worse. New coordinator Carl Smith was brought in to help make the passing game vertical, a move specifically designed to benefit Williams because he struggled in the timing-based routes of last year’s West Coast scheme. In his second pro season with a more favorable offense, Williams will have no excuses this year.

And here's what we wrote about Reggie Williams in Pro Football Prospectus 2006:

Reggie Williams was drafted in the top 10 and immediately handed a starting job. Unfortunately, he is not nearly good enough to be a starting receiver. An injury against St. Louis opened the door for Ernest Wilford, and Williams slid all the way back to the # 4 receiver role. Finally, Williams found a place where he could be productive, using his physical tools to beat safeties and dime cornerbacks. He is behind two players his age or younger on the depth chart. The upside for Williams appears to be as an adequate third receiver. No shame in that, but given his lofty draft status, he will always be considered a disappointment.

Or will he?

Suddenly in this third year, Reggie Williams seems to "get it." He regained a starting position opposite Matt Jones, and he's played well so far. His cuts are crisper, and unlike the first two years, when Byron Leftwich throws the ball, Williams is in the right place. In fact, despite what we wrote after his rookie year, Williams has become a possession receiver who runs timing-based routes. With Jones as the deep threat, there's a dynamic similar to Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress before Burress left for the Giants, or Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie (now Javon Walker) in Denver, or Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson in Carolina (well, if Smith ever gets back on the field).

Assuming that Williams continues to play well, was there any way to see this coming? I thought I would go back and look at our similarity scores for Williams in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, the FOX blog software doesn't seem to allow for tables, so it's hard to give all the numbers for these guys, but here are the top similar receivers and how each one developed after the first two years:

Jeff Query, 1989-90 Packers: A scrub except for one year as a starter for the 1993 Bengals, he was out of the league by 1995.
Shawn Jefferson, 1991-92 Chargers: It took him until 1994 to really develop, but eventually he had a long career as a second receiver for the Chargers, Patriots and Falcons.
Jabar Gaffney, 2002-03 Texans: Yeah, what's he up to these days?
Drew Bennett, 2001-02 Titans: Barely cracked 500 yards in 2003, but broke out with over 1,200 yards in 2004.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 2001-02 Bengals: Lost 2003 to injury, broke out in 2004.
David Dunn, 1995-96 Bengals: Generally special teams only after 1997.
O.J. McDuffie, 1993-94 Dolphins: 800 or more yards each year from 1995-1998.
Terance Mathis, 1990-91 Jets: Mathis was a real late bloomer, finally breaking out once he left the Jets for the Falcons in his fifth season, but then he put up four 1,000-yard seasons.

It's a mixed bag. Five guys developed, three did not, but if we keep going down the list it takes a while to get to a player as successful as Mathis or Housh. (The next five are Bobby Wade, Robert Ferguson, Cedric Tillman, Kelley Washington, and Cedrick Wilson.) The list of similar players really demonstrates how disappointing Williams has been as a first-round pick. McDuffie was taken at the end of the first round, Gaffney at the start of the second. But Query was a fifth, Jefferson a ninth, Bennett undrafted, Housh a seventh, Dunn a fifth, and Mathis a sixth.

Nonetheless, based on historical similarities, we may have been a bit too quick to write off Reggie Williams. Now let's see if he can keep it up the rest of the year.

Post by Aaron Schatz