As the stock of Michigan DT Alan Branch seems to drop further and further in the upcoming NFL draft (having two broken legs generally doesn't help), he's being pushed below fast-rising Amobi Okoye on most draft boards. Indeed, NFLDraftScout.com's defensive tackle rankings list Okoye above Branch. Listed below them is Tennessee's Justin Harrell, who's seen as a notch below the other two first round-graded tackles.

Allow me to hazard a prediction, right now, that Harrell will end up being the best of the three.

Why? Because, simply put, highly-regarded SEC defensive tackles are as much of a lock as any other position and conference in the draft.

Since 1995, 11 defensive tackles from the SEC have been selected in the top two rounds of the draft. They include:

- James Manley

- Booger McFarland

- Reggie McGrew

- Cornelius Griffin

- Gerard Warren

- Richard Seymour

- Marcus Stroud

- John Henderson

- Albert Haynesworth

- DeWayne Robertson

- Johnathan Sullivan

Of the 11, only three were busts: Manley (who never played an NFL down), McGrew, and Sullivan, who ate his way out of the league. The other eight are all starters and considered top-tier NFL defensive tackles.

In addition, many SEC defensive tackles that were drafted in the later rounds made it to the NFL, including Shane Burton, Jason Ferguson, Michael Myers, Darwin Walker, Kendrick Clancy, Ian Scott, Kenny King, and Chad Lavalais

The Big 10, on the other hand, enjoys no such regard. Since Dan Wilkinson went first overall in 1994, they have struggled to put out quality defensive tackles. Second-rounder Nathan Davis played two games with the Falcons before they cut him. Wendell Bryant was drafted 12th overall in 2002 by the Cardinals and is now out of football.

Even the success stories aren't that successful. Jimmy Kennedy has matured into a NFL starter, albeit not a very good one; Anthony Adams still has a job but hasn't broken through, and was let go by the 49ers after three seasons, and Jonathan Babineaux is still behind Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson in Atlanta. The only Big 10 tackle to be a real success since Wilkinson is Chargers DT Luis Castillo, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

The highest-drafted defensive tackle in Conference USA (Okoye's home conference for the majority of his college career) history is former UAB DT Eddie Freeman, who was out of the league after 20 games.

Does this mean that making a move for Okoye or Branch is an obvious mistake? Not really. Okoye has that massive upside, and Branch is the only legit nose tackle that's Day 1-caliber. Picking Harrell, though, sure would look like a nice move for a team looking for defensive line depth. Don't be surprised if one of the "smarter" organizations in the league grab him at the end of the first round.

written by Bill Barnwell

Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?

Well, maybe.

Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren’t always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.

Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.

Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.

A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:

Team     Tackles        Run Defense Rank

Bills         1,076          29th

Titans      1,059         28th

Jets          1,052        32nd

Colts       1,010         31st

Bucs       1,004         9th

It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.

But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.

If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.

So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.

Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.

The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.

post by Mike Tanier

Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."

It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.

Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.

The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.

Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):

1. Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
2. Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
3. Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
4. Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
5. Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
6. Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
7. Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
8. Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
9. Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
10. Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals

Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.

Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.

On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.

It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.

What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.

On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?

Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.

Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.

Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:

1. Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
2. Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
3. J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
4. Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
5. Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
6. Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
7. Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
8. Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
9. Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
10. Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
    

Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Colts finally made the Super Bowl for a number of reasons. One of the major changes is one receiving very little press in the lead-up to the Super Bowl: the improvement of Peyton Manning. He greatly improved his mobility inside the pocket allowing the Colts to change the emphasis of their offense.

The change was subtle, as the Colts still run the same formations and plays they have been running for years. A look at the season totals, however, show that their confidence in Manning's ability to stay upright has led to increase emphasis on getting their Pro Bowl wide receivers down the field. As a result, per our advanced metrics, Manning had arguably the best season of his career. (2004 was slightly more valuable, but the increased offensive environment of that year makes this year more impressive).

Manning has always been rarely sacked. Sure, the offensive line deserves some credit, but for years Manning has unloaded the ball almost immediately upon finishing his drop back. This year the Colts were more comfortable with giving the outside receivers an opportunity to get open down the field.

One asset of Manning is that when the pressure comes, he is willing to dump the ball off to his running backs. In fact, Manning has been much more willing to do that this year. Breaking down his pass breakdown is difficult because Dallas Clark plays wide receiver and tight end. Looking at three groups, starting wide receivers, other wide receivers or tight ends, and running backs, the change this year becomes obvious.

In 2005, Manning attempted 451 passes. 56% were intended for Harrison or Wayne; 32% went to other wide receivers or tight ends, and 12% went to running backs. This year, in 553 passes, only 52% went to the starting wideouts; 31% went to other, and 16% went to running backs.

Harrison and Wayne saw a lower percentage of passes, but the ones they saw were much more valuable. The two receivers ranked first and second in DPAR, measuring total value, and by DVOA which measures on a per play basis, they were first and second among receivers targeted 70 or more times.

You don't need our advanced stats to see the increased value of these two receivers. Each player had the second highest yards per catch of his career. This increase was largely attributable to consistent 10-20 yard gains rather than big plays.

Yards per catch

• Harrison: 14.0 in 2005, 14.4 in 2006
• Wayne: 12.7 in 2005, 15.2 in 2006

Percentage of catches getting first down

• Harrison: 72% in 2005, 82% in 2006
• Wayne: 65% in 2005, 84% in 2006

Percentage of catches over 20 yards

• Harrison: 17% in 2005, 19% in 2006
• Wayne: 13% in 2005, 21% in 2006

In 2004, Harrison and Wayne played opposite roles from 2005 with Harrison working underneath and Wayne down the field. This year was the first time that both of them consistently were pushing the defense. Manning's increased mobility in the pocket allows the receivers time to get open.

As a result, teams are almost forced to give safety help. Harrison and Wayne often run routes near the sideline. As a result, the middle of the field becomes wide open.

Consider the Patriots game, where Wayne and Harrison had seemingly poor games. Their impact was still felt. The Patriots ranked 4th in DVOA defending tight ends and extra wide receivers. With so much attention on the two receivers, Dallas Clark, Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, and Bryan Fletcher combined for 11 catches for 197 yards.

The plays the receivers did make later opened up the field for Clark et al. Early in the game, the Colts tried to go deep several times, and New England cornerbacks made good plays in single coverage. With the cornerbacks playing the deep pass, the Colts shortened up the routes and started bleeding the Patriots.

Their first touchdown drive of the second half include four of five passes intended for Harrison or Wayne. Immediately on the next drive, Clark got open for his first big catch of the game.

To that point, Clark had caught only three of six passes intended for him for 37 yards. From this point forward, he caught three for four for over 90 yards.

A big run and a pass interference call on an attempt to Wayne set up the touchdown. Harrison beat Samuel for the two-point conversion and the game was tied. The next drive, the Patriots kept the receivers covered, and the linebackers deep to slow Clark. As a result, Manning hit the running backs on all his attempted passes.

On perhaps the most crucial play of the game, the Colts hit a 32-yard pass play to Fletcher. First, Manning had the confidence in his internal mobility to allow his tight end to work all the way to the sideline and up the field. Second, the attention paid to the receivers left Fletcher in man coverage by a linebacker with no safety help.

The Bears face the best passing offense in football. They have to get pressure on Manning, but unlike in past years, he does not unload the ball on the first sign of trouble. As a result, the receivers will be putting constant pressure on the cornerbacks and young safeties. Pinch to the outside, and Manning will wait for Clark to work down the middle. Drop everyone deep, and he will hit his backs underneath. The Colts have always been versatile this way, but the confidence to let plays develop longer makes them nearly impossible to defend.

Post by Ned Macey

Well, it’s official (ha!): the referee for Super Bowl XLI between the Colts and Bears will be Tony Corrente. As we did before the Conference Championship games, let’s break down penalty tendencies, FO-style, using our regular season penalty database. 

NOTE: Postseason crews are not the same ones assigned to the referee all season – these are “all-star” crews. Because of that, it’s not quite as easy to get a comprehensive picture, but the referee has more than enough effect on the game to make season tendencies worthwhile to analyze. For the record, Corrente’s crew consists of umpire Carl Paganelli and back judge Perry Paganelli – the first brothers ever to work a Super Bowl together, according to SuperBowl.com – along with head linesman George Hayward, line judge Ron Marinucci, field judge Jim Saracino, side judge John Parry, and replay assistant Mark Burns. 

What is Corrente’s role? Specifically, the referee in any game has jurisdiction over time, down and distance, announcing all penalties, counting the number of offensive players, signaling the back judge as to when to start the 25-second clock, and which receivers are eligible. Generally, he’s the overseer and the arbiter of all penalty disputes between crews – he’s the traffic cop. 

This will be Corrente’s first Super Bowl as a referee, though he was the alternate in Super Bowl XL. A veteran of the Big West and Western Athletic Conferences, the La Mirada, California resident officiated Alamo, Aloha and Rose Bowls before becoming an NFL back judge in 1995. At the beginning of the 1998 season, he was promoted to referee. Corrente has worked three postseason games, including the 2001 NFC Championship game between the Giants and Vikings. In the off-season, he teaches high school social sciences. 

In 2006, Corrente’s crew called more penalties than any other – 242 for 1,590 yards. The crew led the NFL in defensive holding (15) and was on the high side of just about every other common call. 

As for the two teams playing, the Bears and Colts were just about even in false starts (Chicago’s 22 to Indy’s 23), but the Bears were flagged for holding almost twice as often – 23 to 11. (Chicago opponents were also flagged for holding twice as often as Indianapolis opponents, so this could have more to do with the referees and less with the two teams themselves.) Other notable discrepancies: Chicago racked up seven more defensive offside calls (18-11), and neither team had many calls for defensive pass interference (Colts 4, Bears 2). Each team had three of the ever-nebulous illegal contact calls, and four roughing the passer penalties. Chicago totaled 133 penalties – fourth-most in the league behind the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals and Rams. Indianapolis’ 95 flags ranked seventh-fewest in the NFL. 

Bears games are messy affairs in general, as evidenced by the fact that teams playing them were penalized far more then any other – 154 to the 98 calls against teams playing the Colts. Again, this could be related to the teams themselves, or to the specific refs involved. Chicago’s defense precipitated a league-leading 31 false starts, one more than Minnesota’s. Surprisingly, Indy’s air attack caused only four defensive pass interference penalties and five illegal contact calls, a fact with which Colts team president Bill Polian is no doubt very familiar.

The final question regarding the officiating in this Super Bowl is how the crew will react, and how they may be asked to react, after the controversy surrounding Super Bowl XL. Bill Leavy’s crew was raked over the coals by the media right after the game, and the standard Mike Pereira damage control on the NFL Network’s Official Review show did little good outside of the Pittsburgh area. It took a surprising amount of time for the furor to die down. Will this crew ignore last year’s fallout and call ‘em as they see ‘em (which means calling them more often than usual) or will the common postseason refrain of “Let them play!” rule the day? 

Once again, keep your eye on the third team when Super Sunday rolls around.

Post by Doug Farrar

Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called.

New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay

McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.

The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.

Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.

McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.

New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo

One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.

Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.

Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.

Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.

The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.

Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.

Post by Doug Farrar

Yesterday, we looked at what the Football Outsiders game charting project said about which defensive players on Chicago and New Orleans are most often in coverage against different types of receivers. Read that for an intro to the idea and all the standard explanations and caveats.
Today, Indianapolis and New England.

Indianapolis Colts

vs. #1 WR

• 25-N.Harper 31%
• 42-J.David 29%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 10%
• 26-K.Hayden 8%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• Other 13%

vs. #2 WR

• 42-J.David 30%
• 25-N.Harper 26%
• 26-K.Hayden 7%
• 28-M.Jackson 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
• Other 22%

Wowie zowie. That's some pretty evenly split Tampa-2 action right there. But here's something interesting: Nick Harper has a 37% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 57% stop rate against #2 WR. Jason David has a 56% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 38% stop rate against #2 WR. A look at which receivers counted as #1 or #2 backs up something we learned from the 2005 charting data: David generally plays things closer, so he stops more plays but gives up larger gains when he gets beat. The receivers who had success against Harper were mainly possession-style guys: Reggie Williams, Andre Johnson, Eric Moulds. (Terrell Owens was an exception, he got Harper deep a couple of times.) The receivers who had success against David were mainly speed guys: Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Terry Glenn, Drew Bennett. (Yes, Drew Bennett is a speed guy. He's "deceptively" speedy, as we all know.)

I guess Reche Caldwell is the #1 WR and the speed guy for the Patriots, so the Patriots may want to have Caldwell on David's side and Jabar Gaffney on Harper's side.

vs. Other WR

• 25-N.Harper 24%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 20%
• 42-J.David 16%
• 58-G.Brackett 10%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 59-C.June 6%
• Other 18%

The Colts have passes to "Other WR" come up as Uncovered or Hole in Zone twice as often as their Tampa-2 brethren up north in Illinois. I would have to check, but I would guess that the Colts are the only team where the nickel back doesn't even come up as covering "Other WR" on at least 5% of passes. Then again, Kelvin Hayden isn't always the nickel back -- the Colts also use safety Marlin Jackson as nickel back, especially in likely run situations.

vs. TE

• 58-G.Brackett 23%
• 25-N.Harper 14%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 14%
• 59-C.June 9%
• 42-J.David 6%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• 51-G.Gardner 5%
• Other 13%

The other difference between the Chicago Tampa-2 and the Indy Tampa-2: Gary Brackett is in that middle zone defending the tight end seam routes more often than Brian Urlacher is.

New England Patriots

vs. #1 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 25%
• 27-E.Hobbs 25%
• 30-C.Scott 14%
• 54-T.Bruschi 6%
• 80-T.Brown 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 21%

That Troy Brown number is basically all against Green Bay; the Pats will only use Brown as a slot cornerback -- he knows that position best thanks to his role in the offense -- so the Packers lined Donald Driver up in the slot to take advantage.

vs. #2 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 27%
• 30-C.Scott 17%
• 27-E.Hobbs 16%
• 26-E.Wilson 9%
• 25-A.Hawkins 7%
• 32-H.Poteat 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
• Other 14%

Hank Poteat keeps two apartments: one on Long Island, one in Foxboro.

vs. Other WR

• 22-A.Samuel 28%
• 30-C.Scott 20%
• 27-E.Hobbs 17%
• 37-R.Harrison 6%
• 36-J.Sanders 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 20%

Yes, that's correct. We have Asante Samuel listed as the most common defender against all three types of wide receivers. Hint to Peyton Manning: When Ellis Hobbs or Chad Scott is on Marvin Harrison, throw it to him. (I don't think Peyton needs my hints, actually.)

vs. TE

• 50-M.Vrabel 20%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 18%
• 54-T.Bruschi 14%
• 37-R.Harrison 11%
• 27-E.Hobbs 7%
• 55-J.Seau 6%
• Other 24%

This probably has no bearing on Dallas Clark. Let's be honest, if Dallas Clark is a tight end, I'm a turnip. But Mike Vrabel has definitely lost something in pass coverage this season, so Ben Utecht could take advantage of that.

Post by Aaron Schatz

We all know that the Colts defense has turned things around so dramatically in the playoffs. But I'm not sure people understand what a historical outlier the Colts would be if they actually beat the Patriots this Sunday and make Super Bowl XLI. They would have the worst regular season defense to ever make the Super Bowl -- certainly since 1978, the year the NFL expanded to a 16-game season and liberalized passing rules to increase offense. The Saints would also end up as one of the worst defenses to ever make the Super Bowl, although not quite to same degree.

Check out where the 2006 Colts and Saints stand in the following categories. Teams that actually won the Super Bowl are in italics.

Most regular season points allowed by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 360
• 1983 Raiders, 338
• 1983 Redskins, 332
• 1988 Bengals, 329
• 1995 Steelers, 327
• 1986 Broncos, 327
• 1999 Titans, 324
• 2006 Saints, 322
• 1991 Bills, 318

Most regular season rushing yards per carry allowed for conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 5.3
• 2006 Saints, 4.9
• 1997 Broncos, 4.7
• 1984 Dolphins, 4.7
• 1982 Dolphins, 4.4
• 1986 Broncos, 4.4
• 1987 Broncos, 4.4
• 2004 Eagles, 4.3
• 2001 Patriots, 4.3

Highest completion percentage allowed during regular season by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 64.3%
• 1994 Chargers, 62.9%
• 2004 Eagles, 60.7%
• 2002 Raiders, 60.7%
• 1993 Cowboys, 60.2%
• 1995 Steelers, 59.1%
• 1992 Bills, 58.7%
• 2004 Patriots, 58.6%
• 2001 Rams, 58.0%
• 2005 Seahawks, 58.0%

The Saints allowed a 56.3% completion percentage this season, so in this category, they would actually end up roughly average among conference champions.

Fewest regular season interceptions by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Saints, 11
• 1982 Redskins, 11 (strike year)
• 1990 Giants, 13
• 1993 Cowboys, 14
• 2005 Steelers, 15
• 2006 Colts, 15
• 2005 Seahawks, 16
• 2003 Panthers, 16
• 1999 Titans, 16
• 1986 Broncos, 18

In the Colts' defense, they faced only 414 pass attempts all year because they were so easy to run on, so their interception per pass attempt rate isn't quite so awful.

How about our advanced Football Outsiders stats?

Worst regular season defensive DVOA by conference champion (since 1997):

• 2006 Colts, 11.3%
• 2006 Saints, 3.6%
• 1998 Broncos, 0.4%
• 2004 Eagles, -2.2%
• 2005 Seahawks, -3.5%
• 1999 Titans, -4.6%
• 2001 Patriots, -6.3%
• 2002 Raiders, -6.4%

And finally, here's an important stat that measures both points scored and allowed, Pythagorean wins. For those unfamiliar, this takes points scored and allowed and projects an estimate of wins over a 16-game season. The team with the most Pythagorean wins has won the Super Bowl more often than the team with the most actual wins, although the team with the most Pythagorean wins this year is now out of the playoffs (Ravens, 12.7):

• 1979 Rams, 8.4
• 2003 Panthers, 8.6
• 1986 Broncos, 9.4
• 2006 Colts, 9.6
• 1980 Raiders, 9.6
• 1999 Titans, 9.8
• 1995 Steelers, 10.0
• 1994 Chargers, 10.0
• 1985 Patriots, 10.1
• 1988 49ers, 10.1
• 2006 Saints, 10.3

Just because something has never been done before doesn't mean that it can't be done in the future. But no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a defense this bad, much less won the thing. The Saints are a different issue, because their defense wasn't as bad as the Colts during the season, and the Bears' own defense has been having problems since the beginning of December. But as great as the Colts' defense has been over the last two weeks, I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why those two games are a better indicator than the 16 games that came before.

Postscript: I should note that the same issue exists with Peyton Manning. There's no reason to believe that his poor performance in the last two games is a better indicator of how he'll play next week than his fabulous performance in the first 16 games.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Much is being made of the matchup on Saturday between Jon Ogden and Dwight Freeney, but this is not the first time these two players have faced off. For the folks who read us on FOX and haven't been reading Football Outsiders for years, let me point out two articles where Michael David Smith broke down the last two meetings of these players:

• Ogden-Freeney I
• Ogden-Freeney II

Post by Aaron Schatz
 

Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:

"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."

"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."

"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."

"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."

"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"

"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"

"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."

"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."

"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."

"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."

"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."

"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"

"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"

"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"

"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."

"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."

"This is the craziest #### game I've ever seen!"

"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."

"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."

"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"

"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."

"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."

"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."

"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."

"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."

"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."

"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.

"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."

"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."

"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."

"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."

"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."

"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."

Read more in Audibles at the Line on FootballOutsiders.com.
 

post by Mike Tanier

When I finished writing last week's Too Deep Zone article about the Colts' terrible run defense, I secretly knew they would turn around and have an awesome game. It's Murphy's Law as it applies to sports journalism.

I reviewed the game tape this morning to see what the Colts were doing differently on defense. The first thing I noticed was the presence of Rob Morris, who has been starting for several weeks in place of Gilbert Gardner. Morris, a starter with the Colts for several seasons before losing his job in 2005, is a classic two-down linebacker: a big guy who isn't very fast but can shed isolation blocks and make plays between the tackles. Bob Sanders was back on the field, allowing CB/safety tweener Marlon Jackson to move back to cornerback, where he's an asset in run defense. And reserve defensive end Josh Thomas rotated into the lineup more regularly as a sub for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Thomas weighs 270 pounds and is a more effective point-of-attack run defender than Freeney or Thomas. All three personnel moves improved the run defense.

Overall, the Colts did a very good job of filling their assignments. The defensive tackles got good penetration. Linebackers shot their gaps and made sure tackles. Freeney and Mathis did a fine job of pursuing plays along the line and dragging down Larry Johnson or taking away cutback lanes. At the same time, the back-side defense didn't over-pursue. The Chiefs ran some reverses and misdirection plays to catch the Colts keying on Johnson, but the Colts' stay-at-home defenders stayed at home.

Of course, the Colts knew what was coming, and that may have been the biggest boon to their run defense. On three of their first four drives, the Chiefs ran Johnson on first and second downs. It wasn't exactly a subtle gameplan. The Colts could concentrate all of their energy on run defense because everyone in the stadium knew that the Chiefs had no interest in throwing the ball.

Next week, the Colts face the Ravens, a team with a little more offensive balance. Steve McNair likes to throw the ball over the short middle of the field, and he will be looking for Morris in coverage. Brian Billick, for all his flaws, isn't quite as single-minded as Herm Edwards. He'll try to loosen the Colts up a little before unleashing Jamal Lewis. The Colts will have to use their nickel package more on early downs. Freeney and Mathis will have to work harder to get to McNair and may start vacating their run gaps again.

I have a feeling that the Colts haven't solved all of their problems on run defense. They played a great game on Saturday. Let's see how they fare against a multi-dimensional offense and backs who haven't been run into the ground this season.

post by Mike Tanier

So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.

("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)

Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).

KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense, since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.

Dallas at Seattle

We covered this one a couple weeks ago. The numbers on the Dallas cornerbacks are fairly similar and all worse than last year, but there are many more passes thrown at Anthony Henry than thrown at Terrance Newman. And our charting doesn't include most of the recent period where the Dallas pass defense imploded.

Seattle numbers are pretty worthless given all the injuries. Jordan Babineaux's numbers sucked as a cornerback last year. There's going to be a LOT of passing in this game.

New York Jets at New England

Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best guys in the league in these stats last year but struggled with injuries in 2006.

Usually the nickel back faces shorter passes, because he's facing guys trying to convert third downs, but David Barrett of New York faced an average pass that went 15 yards in the air, compared to just 10 for starters Andre Dyson and Justin Miller. Miller's stats were pathetic as a rookie but much better this year. Dyson and Miller allowed the same average yards per pass (7.7) but Dyson was successful against just 40% of passes, Miller against 55% of passes. Barrett had excellent numbers, but I'm guessing that's a sample size fluke caused by a few overthrown bombs.

New York Giants at Philadelphia

If the charting numbers are to be believed, the safeties in New York are horrible. Kevin Dockery's 12 yards per pass was #1 among all players with at least 30 charted passes. Will Demps' 9.8 is eighth. Both had stop rate of 36%, the only defensive back worse than that was Travis Fisher of St. Louis.

As for the cornerbacks, as mentioned above, R.W. McQuarters comes out with great stats, which is really weird and completely goes against the subjective view of my eyes any time I watched the Giants. Corey Webster was thrown at more often than Sam Madison, giving up slightly more yards per pass with a slightly lower stop rate.

Last year in Philly, Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood both ranked among the best in the league while an injured Lito Sheppard was near the bottom. This year, Hood was the injured corner with the subpar stats, and Sheppard's stats were near the top of the league. Injuries are bad, huh? Anyway, Sheppard had a stop rate of 62%, one of the best in the league, and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass, and that doesn't even take into account all his timely interceptions. Brown had a stop rate of 57% and allowed 8.6 yards per charted pass (in his defense, he faced longer passes on average). Hood's stats don't mean much since we're missing the recent weeks where he was actually healthy.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Mike Junt: I was just browsing the defensive Adjusted Line Yards stats and figuring to look up how bad the Alleged Colts Run Defense(tm) is, and then I noticed:

The Colts are ranked number one against runs around left end.

Is that a typo, or are people really running over the entire Colts defense except Dwight Freeney? If that isn't an error, isn't that really noteworthy and worth investigating? If Freeney's really playing that well, considering his bad pash rush statistics this year, that would be a pretty miraculous mirror image of, well, the rest of forever.

Aaron Schatz: Yep, that's pretty crazy. Let's go look into the situation.

This is not a case of Dwight Freeney turning into an amazing run stopper. A run "at" Freeney would probably be listed as left tackle or left guard by the official scorekeepers. Unfortunately, one of the things about Adjusted Line Yards is that we are at the mercy of the official scorekeepers, and we can't know for sure what the real difference is between "left end" and "left tackle" without seeing each run individually. But an "end" run is usually a sweep, a stretch, or a pitch, not a straight ahead run. The other problem is that a backwards pass is technically a run, so a few ends listed as runs are actually screens.

What we have here is a case of small sample size. Through Week 15, there are only 14 recorded runs around left end by running backs against the Colts. That's the lowest of any defense in the league, and the average is 41. I wondered if the issue was the official scorer in Indianapolis -- does the guy just never mark anything as an end run? -- but the Colts rank fourth in left end runs on offense.

Marion Barber had one for 20 yards, but none of the others are over six yards. Four of them are listed as zero yards and three lost yardage. By total chance, two of these runs were by Clinton Portis, on the same drive in Week 7, and it just so happens that I have all the Week 7 games on DVD, so I went and actually looked at the plays. I think they demonstrate why teams don't run left end against the Colts.

Picture the angles in your mind. Dwight Freeney is doing his outside spin move around the left tackle. If you run behind your guard and tackle, he's taken himself out of the play. But if you run a wider run around the end, you are going to run right into Freeney as he's on his way towards your quarterback. That's exactly what happened with Portis. The first play is a pitch left. But Freeney is so far upfield that Portis has to change his angle and try to go even wider. By the time he gets to where he's turning the corner, Gilbert Gardner is right there for a six-yard loss.

On the second play, the pulling guard (R. Thomas) runs right past F