PackerNation: I've been a huge fan of Football Outsiders since
I stumbled onto you guys a few years ago, but your DVOA/DPAR is losing
credibility with me.
How Brett Favre can be rated right behind
Tony Romo in your QB rankings just astounds me. I've watched every
game that both of them have played this year -- and some of the
games, several times. Romo MAKES that team. He's playing freaking
great and just keeps extending plays and making things happen.
Favre, by contrast, punctuates long stretches of just
flat out ineffectiveness with an occasional "play", sometimes good,
sometimes bad. He's inaccurate to the extreme, rarely hits anybody
more than 10 yards away (hence his terrible yards/attempt numbers,
despite his receivers having great YAC) and just cannot seem to make
anything at all happen for his team. He's had critical red zone
meltdowns at the end of the game in two losses already, he's had three
straight games where his passer rating is under 60 ... yet he's just
behind Tony Romo and still in the upper half of QBs?
I'm sorry, Aaron, but you need to take a closer look at how you guys rank QBs. This just isn't credible.
First of all, I'm not sure how Favre is "just behind" Tony Romo. Romo is 9th in DPAR for the season. Favre is 13th. So there are a couple players between them.
More importantly, DPAR is our measure of total value. DVOA is the measure of value per play, and in that one, Romo is far ahead of Favre. Romo's DVOA of 37.1% is the second highest in the NFL behind Peyton Manning. Favre's DVOA of 4.3% ranks 18th.
There is nothing that you can do to go back in time and exchange Romo
for Bledsoe before the season started, and because of that, he has less
total value than he would had he started every game.
Packer Nation also asks how we can have Favre still ranked as an above-average quarterback. The question is, what level of play is "average"? Think about every team. You would be surprised how many
subpar quarterbacks are starting in the NFL right now.
For example,
Favre is easily the best quarterback in his own division. Our stats have Jon Kitna slightly ahead of him, but I think most people would take Favre over Kitna. Honestly, who else in
the NFC would you take over Brett Favre, right now? Alex Smith is still just
potential. Same with Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell. Delhomme has the exact same problems.
Garcia is just as old and not as good. Vick is Vick, you either love
him or hate him. The only NFC QBs I would take over Favre are Bulger,
Hasselbeck, Brees, Romo, and maybe Eli Manning. And of course McNabb if
he was healthy.
What about the fact that the AFC is the better division? Look again at the table of quarterback value. What quarterback ranked below Favre would you rather have to play one game next week? Matt Hasselbeck, yes, he's had some off games which is why he's ranked so low. Trent Green doesn't qualify for the rankings because he hasn't thrown 100 passes. Maybe Steve McNair, although he's way past his prime just like Favre. That's it, right?
Brett Favre is still an above-average starting quarterback because "average" is a lot lower than most people think it is.
There are several things that NFL scribes and fans refer to when attempting to determine how underrated a player is. For a player like Steelers DT Casey Hampton, it’s his skills in occupying offensive linemen at the line of scrimmage and allowing the linebackers behind him to make plays. Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal plows the holes to keep halfbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner going, while Bears LB Lance Briggs is a machine in coverage, shutting down tight ends and even wide receivers coming over the middle.
It’s hard, though, for a skill position player to be underrated solely because of the sheer amount of coverage they get. Fantasy football players could tell you more about Bertrand Berrian than they could about Vince Wilfork, even if the latter plays a much more important role in winning football games. Highlights focus on diving catches and long runs, and they should -- they’re exciting! That being said, there’s a NFL quarterback whose play is underrated by even fanatical followers of the L who simply look at his statistics and watch his highlights Monday morning. That man, shockingly, is Brett Favre. And even more so than Favre, his top WR, Donald Driver, remains remarkably underrated for a skill he and, perhaps, only a few others in the NFL share; the ability to draw pass interference.
As you may be aware, the NFL does not award the yardage gained from a pass interference penalty to the individual statistics of a quarterback and his wide receiver, which seems quite unfair when you consider the letter of the law: a interference penalty is only supposed to be called when a defensive player commits "...any player movement beyond the line of scrimmage significantly [hindering] the progress of an eligible player of such player’s opportunity to catch the ball". In English, he prevents a player from catching a ball he had the opportunity to catch.
Now, of course, not every pass would result in a catch if the interference penalty was not committed; on the other hand, though, most NFL receivers catch anywhere from 55-65% of the balls thrown in their general direction. Is it fairer, then, to award them none of credit for the plays they are prevented from making, or all of it? I’m inclined to think the latter.
With that in mind, I used Football Outsiders’ play-by-play database from the last several years to look at every pass from 2002-2005 that resulted in a pass interference penalty against the defense that was accepted by the offense -- an event that occurred 820 times in those four seasons. I wanted to see if there were certain players or a certain subset or archetype of player (tall guys, fast guys, good or bad route-runners, etc) that recorded more pass interference penalties than the norm. What I found was that for a majority of players, pass interference penalties were generally dependent upon how many devious stares they got in their direction. Take Plaxico Burress, for example:
Just to note, I sorted guys who had the same number of penalties drawn by the yards they recorded on those non-catches to determine their rank.
As you can see with Burress, when he was getting a lot of throws towards him, more of them resulted in pass interference penalties. Burress is actually tied for the lead in pass interference penalties against him for the four-year stretch with 17 -- his yardage, though, pales in comparison to the leader.
Most players had patterns like that -- one year, they’d be in the top ten, the next, they’d be in the late seventies. To give another example, Peerless Price was in the top five in 2002 and 2003, when he was thrown 289 passes; in 2004 and 2005, when he was thrown 106, he didn’t record a single pass interference against him.
There were several players, though, whose numbers really stood out against the pack. As I mentioned previously, the Brett Favre to Donald Driver connection has been quite strong: Driver’s 17 pass interference penalties drawn are tied for the lead when it comes to wide receivers over that timeframe, while Favre’s 36 are in first for quarterbacks. What makes the gap even more dramatic, though, is that their pass interference penalties draw so many yards. Driver’s 17 penalties have drawn nearly 27 yards per catch, fourth over the timeframe -- the three receivers who have averaged more (David Patten, Torry Holt, and DJ Hackett) have done so with only half as many throws. With this combination, Driver’s 443 yards gained through pass interference penalties blows away the number two receiver, Patten, who has only 311. If you apply the yardage gained in penalties to Driver’s numbers, the difference is quite dramatic:
While Driver does also draw more penalties as he’s thrown to more, he consistently draws some even in leaner times -- when he was hurt in 2003, for example, he still drew a pass interference penalty about every 28 throws. Last year, Driver had plays of 10, 18, 33, 36, 37 and 41 yards wiped off his record by pass interference penalties; 13% of the yardage he gained all season, a whopping 175 yards.
While Driver clearly has shown a propensity for being interfered with, he doesn’t dominate his position like Favre does. Favre’s 36 completions are four more than the next highest quarterback, Peyton Manning, and his 729 yards blow away Matt Hasselbeck’s 523 yards for second place. Last year, Favre had 276 yards taken away by penalties, which would be nearly 7% of his season total if included in his numbers.
Speaking of the Packers, the other player who stood out as the one who draws pass interference penalties at a rate beyond that commensurate with his attempts is Koren Robinson. Robinson has racked up 13 pass interference penalties drawn in four years despite missing chunks of the 2004 and 2005 seasons, good enough to be tied for fourth in the league over that timeframe.
Strangely enough, Driver hasn’t drawn a single pass interference penalty this season, while Favre hadn’t drawn a single one until last week’s game against the Cardinals, when he managed to earn three penalties. The change may have something to do with the coaching change the Packers underwent, and may raise a point about scheme having something to do with drawing pass interference penalties.
Whether drawing pass interference penalties is an actual skill or something entirely subject to usage is still up for debate, two things are clear. One, if anyone really does have the skill to draw them, it’s reasonably rare; Two, quarterbacks and especially wide receivers are losing a pretty significant chunk of their performance that they could be applying come contract time.
I know this is a couple days too late, but I still wanted to share with the class. This showed up in the Football Outsiders MNF discussion thread, composed by reader Jason Harris:
Every time someone mentions a Packer starter and you say, “Who the hell is that?”: Take a drink
Every time Favre flings a completely inexplicable interception: Take a drink
Every time Favre does that and Theismann covers for him: Take a drink
Every time somebody mentions Terrell Owens:
And his suicide attempt: Take a drink
And his impact on the Eagles: Take a sip (pace yourself)
And you ask yourself why they’re talking about a guy who has nothing to do with the game: Take a sip (Again, pacing)
Every time an announcer mentions how vicious Eagle fans are: Take a drink
If said fans give the announcer a well-deserved cockpunch: Chug the bottle
Every time somebody mentions cheesestakes, cheeseheads or if the camera
man finds the lone, marginally attractive female Green Bay fan in the
stadium: Take a drink
Every time somebody mentions Brett Favre in relation to a tragedy
befalling his family, his pet ferret or his favorite tractor up to and
including: death, dismemberment, VD, bad haircut, psorisis or
heartbreak associated with same: Drink enough to dull the pain
Every time somebody mentions Donovan McNabb’s injury: Drink three fingers of rotgut
Take one drink for every player Kornheiser claims to have on his fantasy team
Take one drink for every minute the utterly useless celebrity spends spouting inanities in the booth
If Theismann gets so angry about Albert Haynesworth his head actually explodes: Take a Lithium and lay down in a dark room If, after a sack, somebody says, “He is all over the QB like Mark Foley on teenage boys”: Chug heartily
Here's a detailed breakdown of the 45-yard touchdown pass from Donovan McNabb to Greg Lewis that broke the game open for the Eagles against the Packers.
It's first-and-10 on the Packers' 45-yard line. The Eagles just completed a 12-yard screen pass to Corell Buckhalter. They line up without a huddle. Backs Correll Buckhalter and Thomas Tapeh are in an I-formation. There are three wide receivers on the field: Lewis split wide right, Hank Baskett in the slot right, and a third receiver, probably Donte Stallworth (edit: this receiver, who can barely be seen on the television replays, is probably Reggie Brown), wide left. This is the fastest personnel grouping the Eagles had available on Sunday night. Their goal on this play is to isolate a cornerback on a faster receiver.
The Packers counter with a nickel defense. On the defensive line, ends Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Aaron Kampman take a very wide alignment: both are playing an outside 7-technique, almost a yard outside the shoulders of tackles William Thomas and Jon Runyan. Ryan Pickett is in a 3-technique on the defensive left side. Chris Cole plays a 1-technique between right guard and center. This is a pass-rushing alignment, and Kampman and KGB will take an upfield rush at the snap. Linbebackers Nick Barnett and Ben Taylor line up about five yards deep and inside the defensive ends. Safety Marquand Manuel walks up to a spot just behind them before the snap. Nick Collins stays very deep. Cornerback Al Harris covers Stallworth, with Charles Woodson on Baskett and Ahmad Carrol on Lewis. Lewis is the Eagles' #4 receiver, so it makes sense that Carrol, who is having a bad night, is assigned to him. The pre-snap read suggests man coverage, with Collins as the deep safety.
Donovan McNabb takes the snap and drops to execute a play-action fake to Buckhalter. The Eagles ran the ball well on the last drive, so the fake makes sense, but it doesn't appear to draw the linebackers up or slow the pass rush. Kampman and KGB are easily checked by Thomas and Runyan. Center Jamaal Jackson and guard Todd Herremans double team Cole. Guard Shawn Andrews has what should be the toughest assignment, handling Pickett one-on-one. Andrews locks on, and defensive tackle doesn't move. McNabb completes a deep drop and has a clear pocket.
Tapeh completes his block fake and runs a sharp sideline route left, taking Taylor with him. Buckhalter slides into the gap between Andrews and Runyan and runs a short arrow route to the right sideline. Barnett harasses him and follows him. It's man coverage, with one safety deep and the other (Manuel) spying McNabb and taking away the middle of the field. Baskett runs a crossing route 15-yards deep. Brown and Lewis run fly patterns.
The route combination is simple. It's designed to spread the defense horizontally and vertically. If the Packers were in a Cover-2 defense, Collins and Manuel could provide help on the deep fly patterns. But Collins is all alone. McNabb freezes Collins by quickly progressing from Tapeh to Baskett to Lewis with his eyes. Collins must respect the deep cross and the possibility of a deep pass to Brown's side. McNabb turns and throws immediately. KGB executes a spin move just before McNabb releases, but he cannot escape from Thomas.
Lewis runs a straight fly pattern and simply runs by Carroll. Carroll has a rep as an aggressive defender, and Lewis can easily be disrupted at the line, but Lewis gets off the ball clean without getting jammed. McNabb's pass is perfect. Collins has no chance to provide support. Lewis catches the ball at the two-yard line and waltzes into the end zone.
Chalk the success of this play up, at least partially, to the no-huddle offense. The Packers DTs may have taken a play off after the Buckhalter screen. Carroll may not have thought through his assignment at the snap. And of course, the Packers might not have called their ideal defense for the situation. The Eagles have been using the no-huddle effectively all year. Opponents will have to be ready for it.
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