I apologize that there hasn't been much activity at our blog over the past couple months, but we've finished our latest book, Pro Football Prospectus 2007, and we're ready to take more questions from the FO mailbag. In fact, this question goes way, way back to October, but I always kept it around to answer later because I knew it would make a fun blog post.
Daniel Shack: My question relates to the "Guts and Stomps" article that was in PFP 2006, and previously appeared on FOXSports.com. (You can find a copy of that article here.) I was wondering if you also found trends by analyzing each team's losses instead of its wins. For example, " Good teams wouldnt allow themselves to get blown out" or "good teams wouldn't lose close games" seem to be two of the most popular expressions I hear. Of course, we all remember Buffalo's shutout of New England in 2003.
Aaron Schatz: Good teams, it turns out, wouldn't allow themselves to get blown out, at least by bad teams. If you think of a reverse STOMP as losing by 14+ points to a team under .500, only one of the last 12 Super Bowl champions was STOMPED at any time during the regular season: the team you mentioned in your question, the 2003 Patriots. Nine out of 12 Super Bowl losers went the whole season without being STOMPED either. The exceptions are the 2006 Bears, 2002 Raiders, and 1995 Steelers, and the Bears loss of course took place in the last week of the season with some of the Chicago starters playing limited roles.
Out of 165 teams with winning records since 1995, only five were STOMPED by a losing team more than once: the 2004 Falcons, 2004 Jaguars, 2003 Cowboys, 1998 Jets, and 1996 Cowboys. Teams with more STOMP losses are 5-11-20 in the last dozen years of conference championships and Super Bowls. That "20" indicates that the majority of the time, teams meet with the same number of STOMP losses, either one or zero, because it is so rare for playoff teams to lose in this fashion during the regular season.
On the other hand, it isn't rare for a winning team or even Super Bowl champion to lose at some point during the season by at least two touchdowns. Only four of the last dozen Super Bowl champions did not have such a loss: the 2002 Bucs, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams, and 1998 Broncos. However, none of the other eight Super Bowl champions had more than one loss by 14+ points. Six of the 12 Super Bowl losers had two losses by 14+ points.
Teams with more blowout losses during the season won as many conference championship games as teams with fewer blowout losses (6-6-12) although the teams with fewer blowout losses do have an advantage in the Super Bowl (8-3-1).
In all, only 21 percent of winning teams have made it through the whole season without a loss by 14+ points. Plenty of those teams never even made it to the conference championship game. In fact, there were even three teams in the past dozen years with LOSING RECORDS that never lost by more than 14 points: the 2004 Chiefs, 2003 Jets, and 2001 Chargers.
Trying to measure close losses doesn't really work, because teams that make it to the conference championship games usually only have 1-4 losses and those losses are almost all close
It's easy to talk about the NFL's behavior problems. It's much more difficult to quantify them. At Football Outsiders, we like to use statistics to analyze every aspect of football. Unfortunately, there has never been an effective metric to measure arrests, suspensions, barroom brawls, or other acts of naughtiness.
Until now. After 45 minutes of intense boredom, I've developed the latest weapon in Football Outsiders' data arsenal. I call it the Violent, Immature, Criminal, or Knuckleheaded Behavior Statistic, or VICK BS. The VICK BS tells you instantly whether, on any given day, the NFL is a collection of respectable young athletes dedicated to making the world a better place, an ocean-liner-sized hand basket careening straight into hell's deepest septic tank, or something in between.
Like all of our statistics, the VICK BS is easy to compute. You only need two bits of data:
1) The number of stories in the "Headlines" box on the NFL section of FOXSports.com that relate to criminal or antisocial behavior, and
2) The number of days since an NFL player was last arrested. This value can easily be found on ProFootballTalk.com
Each of these values, by itself, is a pretty potent indicator of how prevalent bad behavior is in the NFL on any given day. Put them together, and you have a handy uber-stat. Just square the FOXSports.com headlines, divide by the days since an arrest, and you have VICK BS.
On Sunday, Mat 27th, at 6 p.m. Eastern time, five of the nine football headlines on FOXSports.com dealt with criminal or mischievous incidents. Over at ProFootballTalk.com, the counter stood at six days without an arrest. Five squared is 25, and 25 divided by six is 4.17. I did that without a calculator, folks, because I have a degree in mathematics.
So Sunday's VICK BS was 4.17. What does that mean? In the world of statistics, context is everything. That's why I devised a simple color-coded companion system for VICK BS. If you are too busy or math-phobic to deal with the actual numerical value, you can simply refer to VICK BS by its color code:
VICK BS: Zero to 0.99
CONDITION: Rosy
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: A guarded smile.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Hey, that new Australian punter sure is giving our veteran punter a run for his money in minicamp. I'll be following that battle right up until the end of August."
VICK BS: 1.00 to 2.99
CONDITION: Orange you glad you weren't partying with the Bengals this weekend?
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: An embarrassed grimace.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Crushing and snorting Skittles to get high just isn't right. If NFL linebackers think they can get away with it, then junior high kids will be next."
VICK BS: 3.00 to 4.99
CONDITION: Amber, the exotic dancer who works the 3 a.m. shift and tried to make off with 81,000 of your hard-earned dollars. One at a time.
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: Roughly the same look your wife gives you when you come home smelling like you were run over by a cement mixer filled with Makers Mark.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Did you hear that Terrell Owens faked his own death to avoid paying income taxes? That man has issues."
The Patriots have traded for Randy Moss, giving Tom Brady by
far the best receiver he has ever had and thereby guaranteeing the Patriots
another Super Bowl. That will be the
conventional wisdom. The only red flag
anyone will bring up is Moss' character concerns and whether he can fit into
the team-first approach in New England. Maybe that is an issue (it certainly was not
for Corey Dillon), but a bigger problem could be that Moss is simply no longer
a star player.
Similarity scores are a tool used to compare people to other
players who posted similar numbers over a given time period. A quick glance at
Moss’ three-year similarity profile is very alarming. (Only yards are listed,
but similarity scores also compare catches, touchdowns, and average yards per
catch.)
The names on the left are acceptable if not overly
impressive. More than half had over 7,000 receiving yards in their careers. The
numbers on the right represent the next season after the similar three-year
stretch. Only one receiver had more than 700 yards. Some of these guys had
another good season or two in them, but nobody hit 1,000 yards again.
Moss is a different animal because his peak was higher even
than that of Rison or Pearson. The other assumption is that Oakland was too dysfunctional and/or Moss
just did not care when he was there. Of course, both Doug Gabriel and Ronald
Curry had success there the past two seasons. Gabriel, of course, came to the
Patriots a season ago and struggled to get consistent playing time. Curry was actually the leading receiver on
the Raiders last season.
Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Aaron Brooks, Andrew
Walter, and Kerry Collins put together, but this is not Randy Moss circa
2002. Moss averaged a whopping 3.3
catches per game last season, and the once-dominant red zone threat scored just
three touchdowns. He caught only 43% of
the passes intended for him.
The truth is that Moss is 30 years old, and he always relied
heavily on his speed to get open. He is not the physical receiver that Terrell
Owens is or the master route-runner that Marvin Harrison is. As such, he is not
likely to age gracefully. Moss always
played better on the fast track of the Metrodome, so it is good news that the
Patriots have gotten rid of their grass field.
Is Randy Moss an upgrade for the Patriots? Certainly, considering Jabar Gaffney and
Reche Caldwell were their second and third receivers. But, I think it is a little wishful thinking
to see Moss as a better player than Deion Branch at this point in his
career. Branch also would have been a better fit
opposite Donte Stallworth than the supposed deep threat in Moss. Only once in the last six years has Moss
caught 60% of the passes intended for him, a total Branch hit three times in
four years with the Patriots.
Still, the Patriots have to be commended for playing this
one right. They unloaded Branch at the
height of his value for a first-round pick and now steal Moss away for a
fourth-round pick. His reputation alone
should help open up the running game and get Stallworth one-on-one
opportunities. Moss could easily get his
900 yards, 65 catches, and eight touchdowns, and the Patriots will be a better
team. Just don't expect Moss to team
with Brady to form some sort of Montana-Rice unstoppable duo.
As the stock of Michigan DT Alan Branch seems to drop
further and further in the upcoming NFL draft (having two
broken legs generally doesn't help), he's being pushed below
fast-rising Amobi Okoye on most draft boards. Indeed, NFLDraftScout.com's
defensive tackle rankings list Okoye above Branch. Listed below them
is Tennessee's Justin Harrell,
who's seen as a notch below the other two first round-graded tackles.
Allow me to hazard a prediction, right now, that Harrell
will end up being the best of the three.
Why? Because, simply put, highly-regarded SEC defensive
tackles are as much of a lock as any other position and conference in the
draft.
Since 1995, 11 defensive tackles from the SEC have been
selected in the top two rounds of the draft. They include:
-
James Manley
-
Booger McFarland
-
Reggie McGrew
-
Cornelius Griffin
-
Gerard Warren
-
Richard Seymour
-
Marcus Stroud
-
John Henderson
-
Albert Haynesworth
-
DeWayne Robertson
-
Johnathan Sullivan
Of the 11, only three were busts: Manley (who never played
an NFL down), McGrew, and Sullivan, who ate his way out of the league. The
other eight are all starters and considered top-tier NFL defensive tackles.
In addition, many SEC defensive tackles that were drafted in
the later rounds made it to the NFL, including Shane Burton, Jason Ferguson,
Michael Myers, Darwin Walker, Kendrick Clancy, Ian Scott, Kenny King, and Chad
Lavalais
The Big 10, on the other hand, enjoys no such regard. Since
Dan Wilkinson went first overall in 1994, they have struggled to put out
quality defensive tackles. Second-rounder Nathan Davis played two games with
the Falcons before they cut him. Wendell Bryant was drafted 12th overall in
2002 by the Cardinals and is now out of football.
Even the success stories aren't that successful. Jimmy
Kennedy has matured into a NFL starter, albeit not a very good one; Anthony
Adams still has a job but hasn't broken through, and was let go by the 49ers
after three seasons, and Jonathan Babineaux is still behind Rod Coleman and
Grady Jackson in Atlanta. The only
Big 10 tackle to be a real success since Wilkinson is Chargers DT Luis
Castillo, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.
The highest-drafted defensive tackle in Conference USA
(Okoye's home conference for the majority of his college career) history is former UAB DT Eddie Freeman, who was out
of the league after 20 games.
Does this mean that making a move for Okoye or Branch is an
obvious mistake? Not really. Okoye has that massive upside, and Branch is the
only legit nose tackle that's Day 1-caliber. Picking Harrell, though, sure
would look like a nice move for a team looking for defensive line depth. Don't
be surprised if one of the "smarter" organizations in the league grab
him at the end of the first round.
Pac-Man Jones is going to take a major hit in the wallet now that commissioner Roger Goodell has suspended him for the year without pay. But let's talk about the other people who will be heavily affected by this decision: The Tennessee Titans players, coaches and fans.
Remember how good everybody felt about the Tennessee Titans at the end of last season? There's now very little chance of that carrying over into 2007. Pac-Man Jones was a major distraction, but he was also the best player on that team. He wasn't a year or two away from being a shutdown corner -- he already was a shutdown corner, the best one in the NFL outside of Denver.
Our game charting numbers for 2006 are now very close to complete; we're missing eight games out of the entire season. Look at how Pac-Man Jones rated compared to the league's other corners.
Yards allowed per pass attempt (minimum 48 passes)
Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 5.4 yds/att
Jason Craft, NO: 5.5 yds/att
R.W. McQuarters, NYG: 5.6 yds/att
Walt Harris, SF: 5.9 yds/att
Nate Vasher, CHI: 5.9yds/att
Champ Bailey, DEN: 5.9 yds/att
Nick Harper, IND: 6.0 yds/att
Asante Samuel, NE: 6.2 yds/att
Stop rate (stopping plays short of 40% of yards on first, 60% on second, 100% on third)
Jason Craft, NO: 64%
Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 63%
Al Harris, GB: 62%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 61%
Courtland Finnegan, TEN: 61%
Charles Tillman, CHI: 60%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 60%
Chris McAlister, BAL: 60%
The Titans can take some solace in the fact that they already signed Nick Harper to be Pac-Man's partner if he stayed, and Pac-Man's replacement if he was suspended. But Harper allowed very few yards per pass in part because people were throwing ahead of him in zone coverage (we count those passes as half-credit). Courtland Finnegan is promising, but at 48 passes he barely hits the minimum here. Like Jason Craft and Mike McKenzie R.W. McQuarters (sorry about the earlier mistake, Saints fans -- Aaron), he's a nickel back usually facing lesser receivers. The other names here are practically a who's who of the best cornerbacks in the league, although it is missing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden (injured part of last year) and Nate Clements and Rashean Mathis (who are just below these rankings in both stats).
Say what you will about his personality, but Jones is an exceptionally talented football player. Very few starting cornerbacks reach this level of performance in their second year. He was only going to get better in 2007. Now he's gone, and a lot of Tennessee's playoff hopes are gone with him.
You might not feel bad for the Titans -- after all, didn't they know about Pac-Man's troubles when they drafted him? Yes, they did. But a lot of players who get in trouble in college at the age of 20 turn out to be fine when they get older. Plenty of NFL players come from bad neighborhoods, and have friends still in those neighborhoods, but clean up their act when they hit the pros. The Titans just had the bad luck to find one of those who didn't. The better he got as a player, the worse his act got off the field.
Upon hearing that Marshall Faulk officially retired, I was curious to see his place in history. Whenever I want historical information, I start at the excellent website Pro Football Reference. What I found on Faulk was what you would expect, namely he was an amazing player. More interesting was a finding on this page dealing with various leaders in yards from scrimmage. Much
to my surprise, Faulk's replacement in St. Louis, Steven Jackson,
gained the fifth most yards from scrimmage in history during a single
season.
I
watch a fair number of Rams games and was well aware that Jackson had a
Pro Bowl-caliber season, but I did not realize he was doing anything
historic. His total ranked only behind Faulk himself in 1999, Tiki Barber in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, and Barry
Sanders in 1997. Not bad company at all.
Looking at those five dates, however, gives immediate pause as to the historical significance of Jackson's efforts. Quite simply, today's NFL places increased pressure on a single running back. Furthermore, the running back is featured in the passing offense at a much higher rate. Of the top 21 yards from scrimmage seasons of all time, 16 have taken place in the last 10 years. Even more amazing, four of the top 21 took place last season. Tomlinson ranks sixth all time, Larry Johnson 19th, and Frank Gore 21st.
What struck me about that total is that this was the year that the NFL was supposedly buying into multiple running backs. The
presence of four split-carry situations in the Conference Championship
Games led to numerous articles praising this phenomenon. Many
at Football Outsiders have been calling for this sort of arrangement
for years, in large part to avoid wearing down the primary back. I wanted to believe it was true, but a deeper
look shows that radical change is not likely coming.
The
copycat NFL was supposed to follow this trend, but two months into the
off-season, it appears that the teams in the Conference Championship
game themselves are not even following the trend themselves. The
Super Bowl Champion Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency
without much of an effort to retain him and with no obvious in-house
solution to replace him. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets for draft picks and have no established back-up to Cedric Benson.
The Patriots cut Corey Dillon leaving only Laurence Maroney and third-down back Kevin Faulk. Only
New Orleans kept both of their running backs, and there, Reggie Bush's
versatility makes it easier to play them both at the same time.
Of course, we could have seen this coming. As recently as 2005, the Colts gave 360 carries to Edgerrin James while the Bears gave Jones 314 in 15 games. The Patriots in 2004 gave Dillon 345 in 15 games. Clearly those coaching staffs were not afraid to ride a workhorse back. All three will have at their disposal young legs to lean on next year and will likely push those backs hard.
Overall last season, 10 running backs had 300 carries compared with 10 in 2005 and nine in 2004. Of the 9 in 2004, five have since missed at least six games in a season due to injury. Admittedly, these numbers are down from the peak of 13 in 2003, but that year was the exception. Nine backs had over 300 carries in both 2001 and 2002.
The failure of teams to adapt appears to be a mistake. The
success of the playoff teams can easily be explained by other factors;
the teams had three of the game's five best quarterbacks for one. More
persuasive is the fact that of the top 10 teams in rushing offense
DVOA, only two had a running back with 300 carries, San Diego with
Tomlinson and New York with Barber. Of note, their
back-ups, Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs, ranked first and eighth in
DVOA (value on a per play basis) indicating that the offensive lines
played a large role in each team's overall ranking.
Still, despite the success of these teams who split carries, the workhorse back appears here to stay. As
long as that workhorse is also factored in the passing game, the
single-season leaderboard for all-purpose yards will remain in constant
flux. Jackson may yet suffer the same fate as William Andrews. The former Atlanta Falcon ranked sixth on this list from 1985 to 1997 and now finds himself 22nd.
Hopefully, Jackson does not
mimic Andrews in another way. Coming off a 331 carry, 56 catch season in 1983, Jackson blew his knee out in training camp the next season. He gained only 249 yards from scrimmage the rest of his career.
Mount Ephraim, NJ --
Insurance adjuster Brad Anderson broke out in a cold sweat while surfing the
Internet on Monday afternoon. He felt a tingling in his neck. He feared he was
having a heart attack.
"I read on Pro Football Talk that the Eagles were going
to trade for a Takeo Spikes," he said. "A linebacker. An actual
starting linebacker. Suddenly, I saw spots in front of my eyes." Alertly,
he took a glycerine tablet and called 9-1-1.
When he arrived at the hospital, he found that he was just one of hundreds of
Eagles fans hospitalized by the team's recent spurt of off-season activity. The
problem has become so widespread that the Center for Disease Control had dubbed
it SAOSSD: Surprisingly Active Off-Season Stress Disorder.
"I've never seen anything like this," said Dr.
James Albright of the newly opened Free Agency
Trauma Center
at Einstein Medical
Center. "Over the last two
weeks, we've treated dozens of patients for shock and heart palpitations. But
when the Spikes trade hit, our ER looked like a M*A*S*H unit. There were guys
in green shirts everywhere, just kind of flailing around and twitching."
The outbreak began when the Eagles signed receiver Kevin
Curtis two weeks ago. SAOSSD cases escalated when the team signed Montae Reagor.
But the Spikes deal created a flashover situation. "It was too much, too
soon," Albright explained. "In Washington,
they are inoculated against this kind of off-season. But March in Philadelphia
is usually the time to debate the merits of Jabar Gaffney or hail the return of
Shawn Barber. The affect on Philly fans is like shoveling 35 inches of snow
after a winter without physical exertion. It's potentially dangerous."
Dr. Sylvester Harczynski agrees. Harczynski owns a degree in
Philadelphia Fan Psychology from Temple
University, a degree he earned by
listening to local sports talk radio until he was declared clinically insane
(17.5 minutes). "The Eagles lulled their fans into a false sense of
security by letting Jeff Garcia, Rod Hood, and Donte Stallworth walk, then
replacing them with Bethel Johnson. Fans were ready to go about their early
spring business: complaining about the Phillies and vilifying Donovan McNabb.
But the Curtis, Reagor, and Spikes deals created a whiplash effect."
The effect can be seen all over the Philadelphia
area. "I can't handle this. I can't handle this," Upper
Darby bartender Joe Klein said while hyperventilating into a paper
bag. "I mean, they needed receivers and defenders, and they signed
receivers and defenders. It just doesn't make sense." Klein was treated at
Einstein and released later in the day. "I don't know what came over me. I
mean, I handled the Terrell Owens-Jevon Kearse off-season well. I guess my
resistance was lowered by one too many Matt Schobel signings."
Albright warns that if you are an Eagles fan who is feeling
the onset of SAOSSD, you should take steps to ward off an all-out attack.
First, lie down. Second, avoid the Philadelphia Daily News at all costs.
Finally, download old press conferences in which Andy Reid says "I'm happy
with Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett as my wide receivers," or "Dhani
Jones is doing a fine job at linebacker." Most of all, says Allbright,
"don't try to be a hero. Don't read mock drafts or search the Internet for
other trade rumors. Remember that other teams sign free agents all the time,
and that it is a natural part of football."
Anderson did his
best to heed Albright's advice, but SAOSSD is a pernicious illness. "It's
no big deal, really," Anderson
said while in the recover room. "A decent wide receiver. Another small
defensive tackle. A good-but-often injured linebacker. It's not like they
filled their need for a power back behind Brian Westbrook. Now if they drafter
Brian Leonard … wow … a Rutgers guy … big all-purpose runner … that would be …
ugh … uggggh," Anderson was quickly rushed to the emergency room and
treated with exposure to 50 minutes of Mike McMahon highlights.
Michael Perez: Looking through the DVOA rankings for wide receivers, Torry Holt seems awfully far down on the list, including a negative DVOA! Though Rams games are not ones I watch consistently, I was under the anecdotal impression he was a top tier receiver. Is he overrated?
Aaron Schatz: Interesting question. We've always thought of Torry Holt as a top tier receiver -- in fact, as perhaps the most consistent top tier receiver. From 1999-2005, Torry Holt had more combined DPAR than any other wide receiver in the NFL, and he led the league in DPAR as recently as 2003.
However, there's no question that his numbers have slipped in the last two years. Before 2005, Holt had never averaged less than 14 yards per catch, but he averaged 13.0 in 2005 and 12.8 n 2006. The other thing to drop was his catch rate. He caught more than 60% of intended passes every year until 2006. Last year, he caught 52% of intended passes, the lowest of anyone on the Rams.
There's a reasonable argument to be made that Holt isn't playing any worse. What we are seeing here may be the focus of defenses moving over the past two seasons from treating Holt and Isaac Bruce as equals to acknowledging that Holt is now the superior player.
But it's also interesting to look at the game charting for last year. We have 9 drops listed for Holt, and only 2 for Bruce. We also have three incompletes listed as "Miscommunication," with none for Bruce.
The strangest result is in the category of "Overthrown." 26 of the 78 charted incomplete passes to Holt are marked as Overthrown. Only 6 of the charted 44 incomplete passes to Bruce are marked as Overthrown. Only 3 of the combined 22 incomplete passes charted to Shaun McDonald or Kevin Curtis are marked as Overthrown. I have no idea why Holt would be easier to overthrow than the other receivers. Some of these are deep routes, but not all of them.
Anyway, put it all together and I think we get a combination of tighter coverage, a slight slowdown as Holt passes the age of 30, and a somewhat fluky one-year case of the dropsies.
Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?
Well, maybe.
Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren’t always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.
Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.
Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.
A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:
Team Tackles Run Defense Rank
Bills 1,076 29th
Titans 1,059 28th
Jets 1,052 32nd
Colts 1,010 31st
Bucs 1,004 9th
It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.
But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.
If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.
So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.
Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.
The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.
As free agency dies down, a lot of signings are a bit more under the radar, but one of them really drew my attention this week. The Seattle Seahawks signed 35-year-old tight end Marcus Pollard, formerly of the Colts and Lions. The contract terms were undisclosed, but we know there is some guaranteed money involved.
I know the Seahawks wanted to wash their hands of the Salty Senorita, Jerramy Stevens, and they lost out on the bidding for Daniel Graham. But seriously? This is their answer at tight end?
Pollard told Seattle reporters that he doesn't have the usual wear and tear of a 35-year-old football player. The main reason? He didn't play college football; like Antonio Gates, he was a power forward on the basketball team in college. That's less wear and tear? Last time I checked, power forwards did a good amount of ####ing to get those rebounds. It's not like being a running back, but it isn't ballet either.
Do you realize how many tight ends in NFL history had good seasons at age 35? Two. That's it. Shannon Sharpe and Wesley Walls. Here's the entire list -- the ENTIRE LIST -- of 35-year-old tight ends who caught at least five passes in a season since 1978, with catches, yards, and touchdowns:
Shannon Sharpe, 2003 Broncos (62-770-8)
Wesley Walls, 2001 Panthers (43, 452, 5)
Jimmie Giles, 1989 Eagles (16, 225, 2)
Bob Tucker, 1980 Vikings (15, 173, 1)
Pete Metzelaars, 1995 Panthers (20, 171, 3)
Russ Francis, 1988 Patriots (11, 161, 0)
Ed West, 1996 Eagles (8, 91, 0)
Mickey Shuler, 1991 Eagles (6, 91, 0)
Don Warren, 1991 Redskins (5, 51, 0)
Rodney Holman, 1995 Lions (5, 35, 0)
That's it, folks. In fact, I only have eight other 35-year-old tight ends in my database, and they were basically long snappers (Mike Bartrum, Dave Moore) or glorified extra tackles (Brian Kozlowski).
I would accept the signing if we were talking about signing a 35-year-old Tony Gonzalez. But Pollard had only 12 catches for 100 yards last year and has never been known as a strong blocker. Maybe I'm wrong, and Pollard really has a ton left in the tank, but I wouldn't want to bet any guaranteed money on that.
By the way, I should point out that Pollard is the second 35-year-old tight end signed to a free agent contract this off-season. The other one is Kyle Brady, but frankly, the Patriots don't mind if 35-year-old tight ends rarely catch more than a handful of passes, because they only plan on throwing to him a handful of times. He's in there to block; Ben Watson and David Thomas are the tight ends who will run patterns. Still, Brady isn't the world's best bet to stay healthy and strong either.
Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."
It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.
Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.
The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.
Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):
Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals
Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.
Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.
On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.
It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.
What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.
On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?
Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.
Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.
Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:
Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.
When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49
million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive
lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy
dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109
million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard
really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as
low-cost and fungible.
The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats
for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back
carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack
Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In
addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project.
These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.
One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly
conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of
many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.
Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five
linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost
a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.
Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota
Vikings
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings
signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison
pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the
Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle
gave Hutchinson
the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot
Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing
salary cap, things would never be the same. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LG, Minnesota
Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League
Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19
League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 0 (the second straight
season Hutchinson
hasn’t been penalized) Comments: You’ll get arguments, but
most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some
time adjusting in Minnesota,
but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if
you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota
line – check out at the Seattle
line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’
front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from
ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st
in Mid/Guard ALY.
Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers
Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two
years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on
the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot
closer. Games Started (Position) 15 of 16
(15 LG, San Diego
Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average
4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1
Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding) Comments: Perhaps the most coveted
pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and
Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over
time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only
to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in
the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus
McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.
(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)
Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns
Contract: Seven years, $49.5
million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to
the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland,
though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati
Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left
Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 5 (5 False Start) Comments: Interesting note: While
the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of
the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an
Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average.
RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for
that.
Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million
guaranteed. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16
LG, Washington
Redskins) Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left
Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1
Offensive Holding) Comments: The Redskins were below
the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right
End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly
major part. Think they’ll miss him?
Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys
Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this
one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex
Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LT, Arizona
Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12)
Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37) Blown Blocks: 7 Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2
Offensive Holding) Comments: It’s quite simple, really.
If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial
reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the
President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings
(some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was
the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s
signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.
Recently, teams in the NFL have become associated with an interest in the players of certain schools: New England went after players from LSU and, more recently, have decided that receivers from Florida are the bees' knees. Atlanta's taken a liking to Virginia Tech alums, while Detroit has opted for drafting players from Texas.
There are different reasons for why this occurs. Sometimes, a coach was previously the coach at a college, and brings his old players in -- Steve Spurrier famously attempted this with Washington in 2003 and 2004 -- with the theory being that they've already been in their particular system for years. Other times, a coach has ties to the coach or the system used at a particular college, and brings in players who have already spent years in the system; this was the reason why Bill Belichick brought in players from Louisiana State, who had played in a similar system under Nick Saban, Belichick's former assistant in Cleveland.
It leads to an interesting question: Can teams gain an advantage on the opposition by focusing on drafting players from a particular school, conference, or region? The Atlanta Braves employ a similar strategy, focusing specifically on prep players from the suburbs of Atlanta in the draft. This strategy has led to the acquisition of players like Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Is the same true in the NFL? Let's take a look at four teams who focused on one particular college over a period of time and how those players from those teams turned out.
Los Angeles Rams, Ten players from UCLA, 1985-1993: This focus on UCLA is doubly ironic when you consider that the Rams' coach for most of this run was John Robinson, whose tenure with the Rams was preceded by seven years at, of all places, USC! St. Louis' picks from UCLA enjoyed better-than-average success: Tenth-rounder Duval Love spent twelve years in the NFL, fifth-rounder James Washington spent seven years in the league and was part of the Cowboys dynasty in the early-nineties, Flipper Anderson was the player that Alvin Harper was supposed to be, Darryl Henley was a competent linebacker, and Roman Phifer an excellent one. The only real disappointment amongst these picks was the one first-rounder the Rams used on a UCLA graduate, running back Gaston Green. Green left the Rams after three seasons, rushed for 1000 yards with the Broncos, and was out of football the year after.
Chicago Bears, Nine Players from Oklahoma, 1987-1992: Most of these picks were late-round flyers -- only one of them was higher than a fifth-rounder, second-rounder Dante Jones. Jones played several season for Chicago, but none of the other selections had any real career with the Bears.
Dallas Cowboys, Nine Players from Florida, 1983-1991: Another ironic one this; Jimmy Johnson, who made half of these picks, made his name at rival Miami. Tom Landry's side of these selections enjoyed varying levels of success: fourth-round TE Chris Faulkner didn't make the team, while third-round guard Jeff Zimmerman struggled with injuries and never panned out. Fellow third-round guard Crawford Ker was better, starting for several years. In Johnson's first draft, third-rounder Rhondy Weston wasn't good enough to make a 1-15 team. 1990, though, saw what may have been Johnson's best selection of his entire campaign in Dallas, selecting Emmitt Smith seventeenth overall. Godfrey Myles, chosen the year after in the third round, stuck around as a borderline starting linebacker and got out when the good times started to fade, finishing up in 1996.
Oakland Raiders, Nine Players from USC, 1971-1977: Oakland was averaging 10.7 wins off of a 14 game schedule over this time frame, so they were clearly doing something right. One of those things was drafting players from USC, almost all of whom played an important role on the team during this period. Fourth-rounder Clarence Davis stuck as a high-percentage scatback, the kind of player FO would have loved if it existed in the seventies. Skip Thorpe, taken in the seventh round, became a starting corner, while second rounder Charles Phillips went in as a big-play safety. Fellow second-rounder John Vella started at tackle and guard for most of the era, and even eighth-rounder Mike Rae stuck as a backup quarterback. The pick of the group, though, was when the twelfth round of the '77 draft rolled around and the Raiders grabbed linebacker Rod Martin. Martin would become a legend of the silver and black.
Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.
It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.
Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.
Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.
Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.
Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.
Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.
Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?
Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.
Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.
Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.
Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?
Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.
Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.
Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.
Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to
