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The New Age of Millionaire Linemen
Mar 09, 2007 | 8:29AM | report this

When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49 million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109 million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as low-cost and fungible.

The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project. These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.

One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.

Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.

Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings

Contract:
Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle gave Hutchinson the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing salary cap, things would never be the same.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Minnesota Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19 League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 0 (the second straight season Hutchinson hasn’t been penalized)
Comments: You’ll get arguments, but most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some time adjusting in Minnesota, but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota line – check out at the Seattle line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’ front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st in Mid/Guard ALY.

Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers

Contract:
Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot closer.
Games Started (Position) 15 of 16 (15 LG, San Diego Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1 Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding)
Comments: Perhaps the most coveted pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.

(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)

Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns

Contract: Seven years, $49.5 million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland, though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 5 (5 False Start)
Comments: Interesting note: While the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average. RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for that.

Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills

Contract:
Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million guaranteed.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Washington Redskins)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1 Offensive Holding)
Comments: The Redskins were below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly major part. Think they’ll miss him?

Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys

Contract:
Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LT, Arizona Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37)
Blown Blocks: 7
Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2 Offensive Holding)
Comments: It’s quite simple, really. If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings (some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.

Post by Doug Farrar

35 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NFL, Football Outsiders, Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings, Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers, Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys, Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns, Dennis Dockery, Buffalo Bills
 
Random thoughts about Cincinnati and Baltimore
Nov 30, 2006 | 8:27AM | report this

The Bengals and Ravens are playing in tonight's NFL Network game (now available to 3% of American cable subscribers!). It just so happens that last night, while filling holes in our game charting data, I did the first half of the first Bengals-Ravens game, back in Week 9. I thought I would share some notes on things to look for tonight.

Samari Rolle was usually in man coverage on Chad Johnson and was giving him a cushion larger than Terrell Owens' ego. I wonder if this has anything to do with that early charting data, which indicated that Rolle has been giving up a ton of huge plays this season. Do the coaches see that he's declined, and move him back so he won't get beat deep? Is he actually playing zone, but he's just really bad at it? It's always hard to tell without knowing what the actual play calls are.

The Bengals like to run a defensive play where they start by rushing four, but after two steps, right defensive tackle John Thornton will drop into coverage. I noticed this play three times; the Ravens caught two of those three passes, each for nine yards. One of them was a great example of two teams thinking entirely different things. Third-and-6, and the Bengals rush three after Thornton has dropped off. The Ravens are in an empty backfield set but leave both tight ends back to block in max protect, so you have three rushing seven. Somehow, even though there are eight defenders in zone coverage and only three receivers, Steve McNair finds Michael Clayton standing right in front of linebacker Andre Frazier for a first down.

The Bengals like to use tight end Reggie Kelly as a fullback. Sometimes he's a straight-out fullback. Other times he's in a position that I guess is supposed to be H-back, but he's farther back from the offensive line than other H-backs I've seen. In the charting data, I've been marking that as offset I-formation. I can't tell if it is supposed to be two-TE or not. These are the things that try the souls of game charters.

This is the last game where Carson Palmer's mechanics still seem to be a little off because of the knee surgery. He sailed some passes badly by throwing slightly too soon and lifting his foot when he felt pass pressure. Chad Johnson made a leaping catch on one of them for a 15-yard gain. From Week 10 on, Palmer's been back to his fabulous 2005 self.

Rudi Johnson's blitz pickup in this game was terrible, just awful. He led directly to one sack and one play where Bart Scott whacked Palmer big time. Scott is awesome, he was everywhere in this game. He should get some Defensive Player of the Year talk, as should Adalius Thomas.

Post by Aaron Schatz

1 Comment | Add a comment   categories: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Bart Scott, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Kelly, Samari Rolle, Chad Johnson, Football Outsiders, NFL, John Thornton
 
Overheard at FO
Nov 13, 2006 | 5:40AM | report this

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Buffalo is using a really soft front against the Colts. They are only keeping six in the box. I want someone to create a montage of Edgerrin James watching this while 'Memories' plays in the background."

"It's amazing how different San Diego's defense is without Shawne ('I can't find the bottle') Merriman in the lineup. They can bring no real consistent pressure, and Carson Palmer is shredding them to bits."

"Is my scoreboard messed up? Tennessee's put 26 points on Baltimore in the first half?"

"Somebody forgot to tell Travis Henry the Ravens' run defense is good. He's running all over them in the first half."

"#### Enberg and Randy Cross are going on and on about how smart Tony Dungy is because he doesn't care how big a player on his defense is, he just cares if he can play. Uh, guys, did you notice how the Colts' small defensive players are getting their butts kicked up and down the field every Sunday?"

"Just when you thought it was safe to come out of the locker room, the Chargers scored 21 points in the third quarter. Philip Rivers is showing a very admirable ability to rebound from a rough start ... and before I could even finish writing that, Chad Johnson ran by the entire right side of San Diego's defense for a 74-yard touchdown."

"San Francisco shut down Minnesota last week, and now, thanks largely to three fumbles, they've rammed the Lions' bandwagon off the highway. Are they getting better?"

"The Jets brought a ton of pressure, and the Patriots simply haven't had time to react. Tom Brady can't move around well on the sloppy field."

"Marlon McCree should be suspended for the rest of the year for the helmet to helmet hit he just put on T.J. Houshmandzadeh before the pass was even there."

"I like Jeff Fisher, but he made a cardinal sin at the end of the Baltimore game. Driving for the game-winning field goal, he has 3rd-and-4 at the 25-yard line. The Titans run the ball into the line, leaving a 40+ yard field goal. It gets blocked, and what probably would have been the biggest upset of the day does not happen."

"Shaun Philips really abused Bengals fullback Jeremi Johnson on the Carson Palmer fumble in the fourth quarter … The last two LaDainian Tomlinson touchdowns came within 15 seconds of each other."

"St. Louis' run defense is horrid. 'Oops - I missed the assignment again!'"

"This is the same Steelers team we've seen all year, except with better luck and more stability on special teams."

"Sean Payton - he knows what he's doing - but he looks like a middle manager out there."

"Richie Incognito is the real-life embodiment of the fat guy from Varsity Blues."

"Broncos-Raiders was a heck o####ame if you hate drives or offense."

"Hi, Brandon Jacobs? This is Steve Smith. When you finally give birth to that football, give me a ring, I can give you some wiping tips."

"The Giants were really dominating the game for about a quarter and a half, and then it suddenly turned at the end of the first half, and now they've turned into the gang that couldn't shoot straight."

"The short field goal attempt returned for a touchdown is easily my favorite play in all of football. Except, of course, when it's against the Giants."

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

Add a comment   categories: NFL, Football Outsiders, San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
 
Overheard at Football Outsiders
Oct 23, 2006 | 5:39AM | report this

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"I think it's amazing that Joey Harrington threw 62 passes and Chris Chambers had TWO catches."

"Nice to see Ronde Barber clinch his Pro Bowl bid today. What I liked about the two touchdowns was that one was done with guile and one was done with physical skill. "

"I would rather see Donovan McNabb drained, puking, and throwing touchdowns than fresh and throwing easy interceptions."

"Can we check Matt Bryant for steroids?"

"The Jaguars only scored seven against the Texans because Byron Leftwich played like Drew Bledsoe on a bender."

"I really think Bengals tackle Willie Anderson should be named offensive player of the week for the job he did on Julius Peppers."

"The San Diego-Kansas City final score isn't really a big surprise. The halftime score was a big surprise, but not the final score. Losing by a field goal on the road isn't a huge upset."

"I think the two Steelers-Falcons games of the last five years might be the two strangest games of the last five years. Just so many different bizarre scenarios."

"I could read Bill Cowher's lips and he very clearly said after the false start, 'that's a bull---t call.' He's wrong. It was the right call."

"Oakland is beating Arizona, 17-0, in the second quarter. I'm off to buy stock in YouTube before the Dennis Green postgame press conference."

"I really think that the Washington offense with Brunell would be good enough if they had a defense even approaching last year's. Instead, it looks like the Jason Campbell era may be starting soon. "

"Ron Pitts after Chester Taylor’s 95-yard TD run – 'That’s probably the longest run Taylor’s had this season.' You think so, Detective? It's actually the longest run in Vikings history, and Steve Hutchinson was a factor as he walled off Peterson on the cutback. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck'’s in the locker room with what we’re being told is a sprained MCL. Ladies and gentlemen, the value of elite guards has officially been established.

For more, read Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders on Monday afternoon.

post by Mike Tanier

1 Comment | Add a comment   categories: Football Outsiders, NFL, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals
 
Overheard at FO
Oct 02, 2006 | 6:00AM | report this

Every week at Football Outsiders, the writers e-mail each other with thoughts and updates about Sunday's games as they happen. Here are some of the things we said on Sunday:

"Albert Haynesworth should get a 10-game suspension for what he did. It was perhaps the dirtiest move I've ever seen on a football field."

"Pennington made a stupid play worse by tossing it up for grabs. Horrible, game-changing call."

"Look, this is the Colts. You don’t kick a field goal against them and think, 'golly, this three-point lead sure is safe.'"

"So, for those scoring at home, I have it as: Pennington’s little swing pass to Leon Washington. Washington handed off to Brad Smith. From there it was (deep breath) Smith to Laveranues Coles, Coles to Chad Pennington, Pennington to Justin McCareins, McCareins to Smith, Smith to Coles, Coles to Nick Mangold, Mangold to Washington (who lost the ball), and the game-ending recovery by Indy’s Jason David. That was fun."

"Looked to me like the Chargers backed off on the final drive. If I were Brian Billick, I wouldn't do any preening after that one."

"I'm not sure which is worse, the Raiders' O-line or the Browns' back seven on defense. As expected, this is just a painful game to watch."

"Anyone notice the lack o####reat team this year?"

"Calling the Bengals run defense 'average' is a compliment. This is the second straight week they've been treaded."

"I just saw Keanu Kaesvaharn'#### on Reche Caldwell. It's amazing how much better he is when he's plugged into the Matrix."

"I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now, the Ravens are the best team in the AFC North."

"No really great team this year? I humbly submit the Chicago Bears."

For more, read Audibles at the Line on Monday afternoon at FootballOutsiders.com.

Post by Mike Tanier

5 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Football Outsiders, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans
 
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