Recently, teams in the NFL have become associated with an interest in the players of certain schools: New England went after players from LSU and, more recently, have decided that receivers from Florida are the bees' knees. Atlanta's taken a liking to Virginia Tech alums, while Detroit has opted for drafting players from Texas.

There are different reasons for why this occurs. Sometimes, a coach was previously the coach at a college, and brings his old players in -- Steve Spurrier famously attempted this with Washington in 2003 and 2004 -- with the theory being that they've already been in their particular system for years. Other times, a coach has ties to the coach or the system used at a particular college, and brings in players who have already spent years in the system; this was the reason why Bill Belichick brought in players from Louisiana State, who had played in a similar system under Nick Saban, Belichick's former assistant in Cleveland.

It leads to an interesting question: Can teams gain an advantage on the opposition by focusing on drafting players from a particular school, conference, or region? The Atlanta Braves employ a similar strategy, focusing specifically on prep players from the suburbs of Atlanta in the draft. This strategy has led to the acquisition of players like Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Is the same true in the NFL? Let's take a look at four teams who focused on one particular college over a period of time and how those players from those teams turned out.

• Los Angeles Rams, Ten players from UCLA, 1985-1993: This focus on UCLA is doubly ironic when you consider that the Rams' coach for most of this run was John Robinson, whose tenure with the Rams was preceded by seven years at, of all places, USC! St. Louis' picks from UCLA enjoyed better-than-average success: Tenth-rounder Duval Love spent twelve years in the NFL, fifth-rounder James Washington spent seven years in the league and was part of the Cowboys dynasty in the early-nineties, Flipper Anderson was the player that Alvin Harper was supposed to be, Darryl Henley was a competent linebacker, and Roman Phifer an excellent one. The only real disappointment amongst these picks was the one first-rounder the Rams used on a UCLA graduate, running back Gaston Green. Green left the Rams after three seasons, rushed for 1000 yards with the Broncos, and was out of football the year after.
• Chicago Bears, Nine Players from Oklahoma, 1987-1992: Most of these picks were late-round flyers -- only one of them was higher than a fifth-rounder, second-rounder Dante Jones. Jones played several season for Chicago, but none of the other selections had any real career with the Bears.
• Dallas Cowboys, Nine Players from Florida, 1983-1991: Another ironic one this; Jimmy Johnson, who made half of these picks, made his name at rival Miami. Tom Landry's side of these selections enjoyed varying levels of success: fourth-round TE Chris Faulkner didn't make the team, while third-round guard Jeff Zimmerman struggled with injuries and never panned out. Fellow third-round guard Crawford Ker was better, starting for several years. In Johnson's first draft, third-rounder Rhondy Weston wasn't good enough to make a 1-15 team. 1990, though, saw what may have been Johnson's best selection of his entire campaign in Dallas, selecting Emmitt Smith seventeenth overall. Godfrey Myles, chosen the year after in the third round, stuck around as a borderline starting linebacker and got out when the good times started to fade, finishing up in 1996.
• Oakland Raiders, Nine Players from USC, 1971-1977: Oakland was averaging 10.7 wins off of a 14 game schedule over this time frame, so they were clearly doing something right. One of those things was drafting players from USC, almost all of whom played an important role on the team during this period. Fourth-rounder Clarence Davis stuck as a high-percentage scatback, the kind of player FO would have loved if it existed in the seventies. Skip Thorpe, taken in the seventh round, became a starting corner, while second rounder Charles Phillips went in as a big-play safety. Fellow second-rounder John Vella started at tackle and guard for most of the era, and even eighth-rounder Mike Rae stuck as a backup quarterback. The pick of the group, though, was when the twelfth round of the '77 draft rolled around and the Raiders grabbed linebacker Rod Martin. Martin would become a legend of the silver and black.

Post by Bill Barnwell

Well, it’s official (ha!): the referee for Super Bowl XLI between the Colts and Bears will be Tony Corrente. As we did before the Conference Championship games, let’s break down penalty tendencies, FO-style, using our regular season penalty database. 

NOTE: Postseason crews are not the same ones assigned to the referee all season – these are “all-star” crews. Because of that, it’s not quite as easy to get a comprehensive picture, but the referee has more than enough effect on the game to make season tendencies worthwhile to analyze. For the record, Corrente’s crew consists of umpire Carl Paganelli and back judge Perry Paganelli – the first brothers ever to work a Super Bowl together, according to SuperBowl.com – along with head linesman George Hayward, line judge Ron Marinucci, field judge Jim Saracino, side judge John Parry, and replay assistant Mark Burns. 

What is Corrente’s role? Specifically, the referee in any game has jurisdiction over time, down and distance, announcing all penalties, counting the number of offensive players, signaling the back judge as to when to start the 25-second clock, and which receivers are eligible. Generally, he’s the overseer and the arbiter of all penalty disputes between crews – he’s the traffic cop. 

This will be Corrente’s first Super Bowl as a referee, though he was the alternate in Super Bowl XL. A veteran of the Big West and Western Athletic Conferences, the La Mirada, California resident officiated Alamo, Aloha and Rose Bowls before becoming an NFL back judge in 1995. At the beginning of the 1998 season, he was promoted to referee. Corrente has worked three postseason games, including the 2001 NFC Championship game between the Giants and Vikings. In the off-season, he teaches high school social sciences. 

In 2006, Corrente’s crew called more penalties than any other – 242 for 1,590 yards. The crew led the NFL in defensive holding (15) and was on the high side of just about every other common call. 

As for the two teams playing, the Bears and Colts were just about even in false starts (Chicago’s 22 to Indy’s 23), but the Bears were flagged for holding almost twice as often – 23 to 11. (Chicago opponents were also flagged for holding twice as often as Indianapolis opponents, so this could have more to do with the referees and less with the two teams themselves.) Other notable discrepancies: Chicago racked up seven more defensive offside calls (18-11), and neither team had many calls for defensive pass interference (Colts 4, Bears 2). Each team had three of the ever-nebulous illegal contact calls, and four roughing the passer penalties. Chicago totaled 133 penalties – fourth-most in the league behind the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals and Rams. Indianapolis’ 95 flags ranked seventh-fewest in the NFL. 

Bears games are messy affairs in general, as evidenced by the fact that teams playing them were penalized far more then any other – 154 to the 98 calls against teams playing the Colts. Again, this could be related to the teams themselves, or to the specific refs involved. Chicago’s defense precipitated a league-leading 31 false starts, one more than Minnesota’s. Surprisingly, Indy’s air attack caused only four defensive pass interference penalties and five illegal contact calls, a fact with which Colts team president Bill Polian is no doubt very familiar.

The final question regarding the officiating in this Super Bowl is how the crew will react, and how they may be asked to react, after the controversy surrounding Super Bowl XL. Bill Leavy’s crew was raked over the coals by the media right after the game, and the standard Mike Pereira damage control on the NFL Network’s Official Review show did little good outside of the Pittsburgh area. It took a surprising amount of time for the furor to die down. Will this crew ignore last year’s fallout and call ‘em as they see ‘em (which means calling them more often than usual) or will the common postseason refrain of “Let them play!” rule the day? 

Once again, keep your eye on the third team when Super Sunday rolls around.

Post by Doug Farrar

Similarity scores aren't going to get across the full magnitude of Rex Grossman's up-and-down 2006 season, but I thought it would be interesting to get a list of quarterbacks with seasons most similar to Grossman's total 2006 numbers.

1. Jon Kitna, 1999 Seahawks
2. Randy Wright, 1986 Packers
3. Vinny Testaverde, 1989 Bucs
4. Paul McDonald, 1984 Browns
5. Neil Lomax, 1985 Cardinals
6. Jim Zorn, 1980 Seahawks
7. Neil O'Donnell, 1993 Steelers
8. Craig Erickson, 1993 Bucs
9. Richard Todd, 1981 Jets
10. Joey Harrington, 2004 Lions

Well, that's not a very good list, is it? I'm sure Grossman would love to have a career like Testaverde, throwing a ton of interceptions and lasting forever anyway. What's interesting is that I only compared a single season, and I based the experience variable on "years of experience" rather than "years as a starter." Yet, I still got a number of players who, like Grossman, were in their third or fourth year in the pros but first full year as a starter. That includes Kitna, Wright, McDonald, and lower down, Scott Brunner of the 1982 Giants, Stan Humphries of the 1992 Chargers, and Vince Ferragamo of the 1980 Rams. Maybe that means that Grossman's struggles were to be expected o####uy in his situation.

Of course, most of those players lost their jobs within a couple of years, or, in the case of McDonald, the next year. Probably not a good sign.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called.

New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay

McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.

The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.

Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.

McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.

New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo

One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.

Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.

Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.

Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.

The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.

Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.

Post by Doug Farrar

One of the big stories this weekend is whether the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots can hide their weaknesses at cornerback. On the Saints, one corner (Fred Thomas) has given up big plays far more often than the other two. On the Patriots, one corner (Asante Samuel) is much better this season than the other two.

Let's go through data from the Football Outsiders game charting project to see what we can learn about who each cornerback might end up covering during the game. We've assigned each offense with #1 WR and #2 WR for each week, with other WR into a third category and TE as a fourth category.

Standard caveats apply: Charting off of television camera angles is bound to have mistakes. This information is incomplete, because we aren't finished with every game yet. Designations of "#1 WR" and "#2 WR" are somewhat arbitrary, and it would be better to mark "flanker" and "split end" except that we have no record of which players were on which side on every play. "Other WR" doesn't necessarily designate slot receiver, since sometimes the top guy will move to the slot in a three-wide.

Anyway, none of this means we can't learn something, so let's see what we find when we look at which defenders cover which receivers the most often for each team.

Chicago Bears

vs. #1 WR

• 33-C.Tillman 48%
• 31-N.Vasher 18%
• 55-L.Briggs 6%
• 24-R.Manning 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
• Other 17%

vs. #2 WR

• 33-C.Tillman 24%
• 31-N.Vasher 19%
• 24-R.Manning 15%
• 55-L.Briggs 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
• 54-B.Urlacher 5%
• 38-D.Manning 5%
• Other 19%

What you see here are three things.

In the Bears' Tampa-2 defense, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher aren't usually assigned to specific receivers. But it doesn't matter whether the quarterback is throwing to one starter or the other -- he's going after Tillman more often.

Because of the Tampa-2, the Bears have a higher than normal percentage of passes listed as Uncovered or Hole in Zone.

It's not man coverage specifically, but Lance Briggs probably ends up defending starting wide receivers more than any linebacker in the league.

vs. Other WR

• 24-R.Manning 29%
• 33-C.Tillman 14%
• 31-N.Vasher 14%
• 55-L.Briggs 13%
• Uncovered/Hole 10%
• Other 20%

This responsibility is less specific on some teams (as you'll see when I do the Patriots tomorrow) but on the Bears, that third corner is most often on that third guy. And there's Briggs again.

vs. TE

• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 16%
• 55-L.Briggs 15%
• 54-B.Urlacher 13%
• 46-C.Harris 12%
• 92-H.Hillenmeyer 10%
• 33-C.Tillman 6%
• 31-N.Vasher 6%
• 35-To.Johnson 6%
• Other 17%

The high Uncovered/Hole in Zone number for covering tight ends is very indicative of the Tampa-2.

New Orleans Saints

vs. #1 WR

• 22-F.Thomas 35%
• 21-J.Craft 19%
• 34-M.McKenzie 18%
• 29-J.Bullocks 8%
• 23-O.Stoutmire 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 1%
• Other 14%

Burn, baby, burn. Disco inferno!

vs. #2 WR

• 34-M.McKenzie 26%
• 22-F.Thomas 25%
• 21-J.Craft 15%
• 58-S.Shanle 7%
• 29-J.Bullocks 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 8%
• 55-S.Fujita 5%
• Other 8%

The question here is: Is Fred Thomas covering the top receiver more often than McKenzie? Or do opposing quarterbacks just throw to the top receiver more often than he's covered by Thomas. Remember, we can't chart a pass with Thomas covering the #1 WR unless the pass is thrown to the #1 WR. Last week, we talked about the difference between Thomas's performance before and after midseason. Now, look at the difference in where opposing quarterbacks threw the ball:

Weeks 1-8: Thomas covered 28% of charted passes to #1 WR, 32% of passes to #2 WR.
Weeks 9-16: Thomas covered 44% of charted passes to #1 WR, 17% of passes to #2 WR.

And remember, Thomas missed a couple of games in the second half of the season due to injury (Weeks 10 and 12) so when he was in the lineup, those percentages were actually higher.

vs. Other WR

• 22-F.Thomas 32%
• 21-J.Craft 20%
• 34-M.McKenzie 18%
• 29-J.Bullocks 8%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 18%

Yep, he's number one here too.

vs. TE

• 41-R.Harper 16%
• 55-S.Fujita 13%
• 21-J.Craft 11%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 11%
• 34-M.McKenzie 8%
• 58-S.Shanle 8%
• 23-O.Stoutmire 8%
• 29-J.Bullocks 7%
• 53-M.Simoneau 7%
• 22-F.Thomas 5%
• Other 7%

Among the myriad of incredible facts about the 2006 New Orleans Saints is this: They got a draft steal in strong safety Roman Harper, who was excellent in pass coverage early, yet they continued to play well even though he was lost for the year after five games. Harper was used so often in pass coverage that he comes out as the most common defender assigned to the tight end -- even though he played just one-third of the season.

Summarizing all this: On each of these teams, quarterbacks prefer to go after one cornerback over the others. But on Chicago, the picked-on cornerback was just as good as the other cornerback this year. That's not true in New Orleans. Advantage: Bears.

Then again, this is all dwarfed by the fact that New Orleans has the better quarterback by leaps and bounds. Advantage: Saints.

We'll do the Patriots and Colts tomorrow.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Last week we looked at our game charting data for defensive backs from the wild card games. I figured it was a good idea to check out the top two seeds in each conference, since we left them out last week.

The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:

• Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
• Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.

All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.

Baltimore

I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.

McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.

As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.

Chicago

The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender, and only 48 with Vasher as the main defender. We've charted more passes at Tillman than any other defender in the league, and while you might think this is because some teams have incomplete data this year, Tillman was second behind Ike Taylor in 2005, and Vasher was way behind Tillman last year as well.

Ricky Manning comes out with a lower stop rate and more yards allowed per pass (46%, 7.7). Also, he's a ####.

Like I said, linebacker numbers aren't quite as trustworthy as cornerback numbers. But Lance Briggs has a 62% stop rate, second behind Zach Thomas, and allows 4.6 yards per pass, second behind Keith Bulluck. He was near the top in both categories last year too. Briggs is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

New Orleans

OK, this one is really strange. When I first looked at charting data, Fred Thomas came out as one of the top guys in the league. Then he got injured, and when he came back he was getting super-toasted by everybody he tried to cover. Now his numbers are worse than those for both Mike McKenzie and the other cornerback in New Orleans, who I bet you can't even name.

Even weirder is the split between New Orleans before and after the bye week, which is roughly when Thomas was injured.

Weeks 1-6
Mike McKenzie: 25 charted psses, 36% stop rate, 10.2 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 39 charted passes, 67% stop rate, 3.3 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 21 charted passes, 48% stop rate, 6.3 yards per pass.

Weeks 8-15
Mike McKenzie: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 36 charted passes, 33% stop rate, 14.9 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.

"Other Guy" is eight-year veteran Jason Craft. Yes, his numbers from Weeks 8-15, based on the data collected as of today, are the exact same as McKenzie, and both are far better than they were before the bye week, and Thomas is far, far worse. Honestly, I have no idea what the heck is going on here. Craft's charting numbers were horrific in 2005. In 2006, based on data so far, he's tied with Pac-Man Jones for the best stop rate among all cornerbacks (65% for the whole year).

San Diego

This one is pretty interesting, especially since the secondary was supposed to be the weakness of the Chargers. Drayton Florence has one of the best stop rates in the league, 63%, and Quentin Jammer's stop rate is just 47%. But they allow roughly the same yards per pass (6.1 for Florence, 6.5 for Jammer), because Florence allows double the yards after catch.

Nickel cornerback Antonio Cromartie also has a 63% stop rate. He's allowed 8.4 yards per pass, which doesn't look good until you see that the average pass we've charted against him is 20.3 yards in the air. That's the highest of any cornerback with at least 30 charted passes by a good THREE YARDS. (Fred Thomas, by the way, is second. He really has been super torch-o-licious over the second half of the year.)

Donnie Edwards, like Lance Briggs, is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

In today's DVOA ratings commentary, I mention that Chicago is on pace to finish with the second-best special teams rating since the start of DVOA in 1997. Here's a look at the top ten special teams of the last decade. The special teams method is described in detail here.

 1)      2002 New Orleans Saints: 10.0% DVOA. The Saints ranked fifth or higher in our ratings for all five aspects of special teams. Michael Lewis averaged 25.8 yards per kickoff return with two touchdowns, and 14.2 yards per punt return with one touchdown. John Carney was 31-for-35 on field goals. Toby Gowin averaged 65.6 yards per kickoff (third in the official NFL stats) and 36.9 net yards per punt (seventh). Special teams probably worth at least two wins to the 9-7 Saints, although it wasn't enough to put them in the playoffs.

 2)      2006 Chicago Bears: 8.2% DVOA through Week 15.

 3)      1998 Dallas Cowboys: 7.8% DVOA. Deion Sanders had six punt returns over 30 yards, including two touchdowns. Toby Gowin had 17 touchbacks on kickoffs, while the Dallas kickoff coverage forced four fumbles.

4)      2004 Buffalo Bills: 7.5% DVOA. Thanks to cornerbacks Terrance McGee and Nate Clements, who also returned kickoffs and punts, the Bills were first in our punt return ratings, and second in kick returns behind Dante Hall and Kansas City. Punter Brian Moorman also had a strong year, although kicker Rian Lindell was below average on field goals.

 5)      2000 Miami Dolphins: 7.5% DVOA. 2000 had three of the top eight special teams units of the decade, as well as the worst (Buffalo). Miami ranked in the top 10 in each aspect of special teams, with nobody in particular standing out except perhaps for kicker Olindo Mare (28-for-31 on field goals).

 6)      2000 Seattle Seahawks: 7.4% DVOA. Jeff Feagles was an average punter, and Rian Lindell an average kicker, but the coverage teams were awesome. Punt coverage forced three fumbles and three muffs, and allowed only one return over 15 yards (by Dante Hall, and only for 22 yards). Kickoff coverage forced two fumbles and three muffs, with only two returns ending past the 40-yard line. Charlie Rogers had 13 kick returns over 30 yards, with one touchdown.

 7)      2001 Philadelphia Eagles: 7.4% DVOA. Philadelphia was top 10 in all five aspects of special teams. David Akers had the league's best kickoffs and was 26-for-31 on field goals. Sean Landeta was excellent on punts.

 8)      2000 Baltimore Ravens: 7.2% DVOA. Matt Stover was 35-for-39 on field goals, and except for a block, the misses were all on kicks of 45+ yards. Jermaine Lewis was the top punt returner in the league and brought two back for touchdowns. Kyle Richardson also had a good year punting, once you consider the effects of cold weather.

 9)      2005 Buffalo Bills: 7.2% DVOA. Pretty much the same cast as the 2004 team.

 10)  1997 Dallas Cowboys: 6.6% DVOA. Pretty much the same cast as the 1998 team.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

In a few weeks, I'll be selecting the Too Deep Zone All Rookie Team. With the help of Michael David Smith and some of the other Football Outsiders, I select an entire team of rookies to honor, right down to the special teams gunners. I also pick a Rookie of the Year, which is never an easy task. This year, it's really difficult.

I drew up my first draft of the All Rookie Team about a month ago. Back then, the ROY question was easy: Marques Colston was the odds-on favorite for the award. But after a remarkable three-game stretch in which he caught 27 passes (19 of them for first downs or touchdowns), Colston missed three games with an injury. During his time with the pit crew, lots of other competitors gained ground.

Just after Colston got hurt, Joseph Addai had his monster 171-yard, four-touchdown Monday night game. If Addai followed that performance up with a few other great games, he would be the clear favorite ROY candidate. But he has rushed for just 56 and 22 yards in his last two games and hasn't done much as a receiver lately. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney have similar resumes to Addai: a few great games, value as a runner, receiver, and return man (Addai isn't a return man but has more offensive yards than the others), and some highlight-reel plays to capture the imagination. Reggie Bush is in the same category but hasn't been quite as good. If there are three or four similar players vying for an award, it may be a sign that none of them has distinguished himself enough to earn the award. But I haven't ruled any of them out.

Vince Young has leapt into the spotlight in the last few weeks. He has been impressive as a runner and (to a lesser extent) a passer during the Titans' four-game winning streak. But I'm wary of anoint a quarterback as the ROY because he "won" or got hot at the right time. Young's DPAR – 7.9 as a passer, 1.7 as a rusher – is good for a rookie but not overwhelming.

DPAR, of course, is Football Outsiders' top tool for evaluating players. Addai's DPAR is a whopping 33.2 as a runner, far outstripping Jones-Drew (10.7) or Maroney (2.5). Addai has them beat as a receiver, too, and kick return yardage can't really make up the difference. Colston's 25.9 DPAR is within striking distance of Addai. But I'm not obligated to choose the rookie DPAR champion as ROY. Other factors come into play, like the strength of the rookie's supporting cast. After watching Edgerrin James flop in Arizona, I'm convinced that it's really easy to run the ball in the Colts offense. That's not a knock on Addai, but if he continues to slip in the next few weeks, it'll be taken into account.

Why does the ROY have to be a "skill position" player? A month ago, before Addai's big game, I had Jets' center Nick Mangold penciled in as the runner-up to Colston. I have film evidence that Mangold has had a great season, plus lots of press clippings. The FO stats say that the Jets line has been playing relatively well, and their playoff run has been a pleasant surprise. If there were no high-profile candidates at quarterback, receiver, or running back, I would tap Mangold. At this point, I don't want to pick a lineman just to be cool. (Hey, look how much smarter than everyone else I am for picking this guy!) Do you really like Mangold better than Colston, Young, or Addai? I don't, but if that trio plays poorly over the next two weeks, Mangold may still get the nod.

The same goes for defensive players. Last year, I gave serious consideration to DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Lofa Tutupu, and Odell Thurman as ROY candidates. But this year's rookie defensive class isn't as impressive as last year's. DeMeco Ryans of the Texans has Defensive Rookie of the Year all but locked up. His raw totals: 105 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, an interception, six passes defensed – blow away the competition. Dig deeper, and you discover that Ryans isn't just making clean-up tackles. But again, does he have something that the offensive stars don't? If he does, I can't find it.

Late Monday night, a final contender entered the field: Devin Hester. Check out the Bears special teams DVOA: a whopping 14.8 on punt returns, and that doesn't count Hester's missed field goal return. That may not compare to Addai or Colston's DPAR, but the impact of Hester's returns has been huge. Hester doesn't contribute much to the Bears defense, and I haven't seen him on offense yet, though I have a feeling I will. He's on the list.

Clearly, the ROY race is going right down to the wire. The list goes live just before Week 17, so Addai, Colston, Hester, Young, and the dark horses have two more weeks to (further) impress me. I have a feeling that I will be giving a lot of "runner-up" and "honorable mention" notices this year.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Seven minutes to go in the first quarter: two Vick passes, two Crumpler drops."

"I think the Titans have a very good chance of pulling off an upset, though I would rather that they never win a game with the light blue uni-color uniforms. Some decisions just shouldn't be rewarded."

"This is what it is to be a Lions fan: They're up 7-3 and have first-and-goal inside the 5. Do they score? Nope. Ball squirts out of Kevin Jones' hand, Patriots pounce on it."

"Props where props are due: On third-and-5, Vick play-actions, and hits Crumpler in stride for a 20-plus yard gain. Great throw, great catch."

"Wow. In the first half, Rex Grossman completed 3 of 9 passes for 22 yards and 2 picks. That, my friends, is a quarterback rating of 2.8."

"After trailing 14-0, the Falcons are now leading 17-14. The last TD resulted from Falcons' DL Chauncy Davis intercepting a Jason Campbell pass and returning it to the Atlanta 25-yard line. Two plays later, Vick gets time and throws a laser to Michael Jenkins who inexplicably doesn't drop it. By the way, the best thing about the Davis pick was that Grady Jackson was right next to him when he made the play and proceed to take two steps before seemingly saying, 'Look, you know I'm not going to run downfield and block, and I know I'm not going to run downfield and block, so let's stop kidding ourselves right now.' Jackson stopped running."

"Halfway through the third quarter, Grossman has three more incompletions and another pick. His rating is now the Big Blutarsky. Take it, Dean Wormer: 'Zero-point-ZERO. ' Right now, I'm picturing Grossman with a pencil in each nostril."

"The Steelers are way down the depth chart at WR. For example, on the last play Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass to Sean Morey and it was broken up by ... Phillip Buchanon. This is sad on so many levels."

"The Giants socks should have been hung by the chimney with care."

"At what point in discussing the problems of the Denver offense will somebody finally say the words 'Matt Lepsis'"?

"Bootlegs, scrambles, incomplete passes ... golly, Denver sure looks different tonight."

"I swear, they should just put it right on the ball: THIS IS AN OFFICIAL NFL FOOTBALL. DO NOT THROW THIS ANYWHERE NEAR CHAMP BAILEY."

"Okay, Seahawks fans - your team is 8-4 and your kicker is your MVP. You'll take it, right?"

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"The Jets-Texans announcers must be the CBS "R"-Team. I am pretty sure the next broadcast team they'd send out would be Jeff Probst and the clock from 60 Minutes".

"Michael Vick may not be able to pass, and may be a 'coach killer,' but boy does he have moves."

"Baltimore's second touchdown drive was something Bronko Nagurski would have enjoyed: 8 plays, 47 yards, and six of the plays were essentially runs up the middle."

"Drew Brees just threw a 50-yard, half-ending Hail Mary TD. With triple coverage, the Falcons made a lame attempt at batting down the ball. The primary coverage was DeAngelo Hall, who was in such poor body position he wasn’t able to do any defending. The Falcons took a timeout right before the play began and Daryl Johnson noted, 'they don't get to take those into the locker room with them, so you better use them if you are unsure of what to do. The worst thing would be to get burned on the last play here, so it's best to take the timeout and be sure.' Guess they weren't that sure."

"Boredom is Texans-Jets. Long drive, field goal. Long drive, punt. Rinse, repeat."

"Ben Roethlisberger is getting heat on just about every play, and the distressing thing is how much of the pressure is unblocked. The only time this season I've seen a quarterback under siege to this extent was when Andrew Walter got sacked nine times by the Seahawks a few Monday nights ago. Yes, I just compared the offense of the defending Super Bowl champs to the Oakland Raiders."

"There's a really good chance that neither Edgerrin James nor Shaun Alexander will run for 100 yards in a single game this season. Between them, they did so 20 times in 2005."

"Is anyone really surprised by Edge, though? The guy never saw an eight-man front in his life, and then he moved to a team with an absolutely horrid offensive line. I'd have to say he is who I thought he was."

"It's time for the general populace to realize how good this Oakland defense really is. In the first half, the Chargers - who are currently ranked second in the NFL in offensive DVOA - have gained 55 total yards, have three first downs, are 0 for 4 in third-down conversions, and have had the ball for a whopping eight minutes and twenty-three seconds."

"Yeah, the Raiders defense is great, but their offense handed the Chargers the ball on the 12-yard line and couldn't execute a drive longer than four plays in the second half. The defense can't hold on forever."

"If any of the subjective power ranking writers drop the Bears because they lost, they are complete and total idiots. They just lost by four points on the road against one of the top five or six teams in the league. This does nothing -- nothing -- to prove that the Bears can't win against the best team the AFC has to offer on a neutral field in February.

"Guess who's on my fantasy bench this week? Joseph Addai. Time to trade someone for a receiver."

"The Eagles can blame a lot on the McNabb injury and bad luck, but there is no excuse for the complete and total disintegration of their run defense over the past few weeks. I know they are in nickel a lot tonight, but last time I checked you weren't supposed to stop tackling people just because you had one less linebacker on the field."

Check out more in this week's FO Audibles at the Line.

post by Mike Tanier

Mactbone: My impression is that Rex Grossman performs well when the team is up and plays poorly when the Bears are losing. I'm curious if his DVOA/DPAR is higher when the Bears are already up by 7/14 and lower when they're down 7/14 points. Of course, he could just play well when he has a short field and poorly when he actually has to put a drive together. Just trying to get a handle on the reason the Bears will win or lose in the playoffs.

Aaron Schatz: Thanks for the excellent question, Mactbone. It turns out that you are absolutely correct. When I measure scoring gap, I generally use 8 points as the guideline, since that's the maximum score you can get on just one drive. Here are Grossman's stats when the Bears are up by 9+ points, losing by 9+ points, or within 8 points either way.

Lose >8: -17.0 DPAR, -70.7% DVOA, 4.3 ypa, 4 INT
Within 8: 1.8 DPAR, -10.6% DVOA, 5.9 ypa, 7 INT
Win >8: 39.3 DPAR, 82.2% DVOA, 9.4 ypa, 0 INT

Wow, that would concern me if I was a Bears fan. Evil Rex seems to come out whenever the Bears are losing, and they're more likely to fall behind a good team they'll meet in the playoffs than they are to fall behind some team like Detroit.

How does this compare to other quarterbacks? I ran two other random guys with somewhat similar total value this year:

Here's Tom Brady:

Lose >8: 10.2 DPAR, 22.4% DVOA, 5.5 ypa, 0 INT
Within 8: 15.4 DPAR, 5.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 8 INT
Win >8: 18.5 DPAR, 36.3% DVOA, 6.1 ypa, 1 INT

Brady seems to play looser in close games -- more yards, more turnovers -- but better overall when he either is coming back from behind or has a nice lead. Here's Steve McNair:

Lose >8: -0.2 DPAR, -14.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 3 INT
Within 8: 11.8 DPAR, 2.0% DVOA, 5.7 ypa, 5 INT
Win >8: 5.0 DPAR, 2.8% DVOA, 5.0 ypa, 1 INT

I have no idea if this is actually a real trend that represents the Chicago offensive style, or Grossman himself, or if it is just random chance. One of the projects I hope to do for next year's book is a study of which "splits" represent actual skills and which are basically just random from year to year.

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Giants hosted the Bears with five of their defensive starters hurt, including All-Pro defensive end Michael Strahan, and three rookies in the defensive starting lineup. You might think that coordinator Tim Lewis would be more conservative with so many substitutes in the game. Quite the contrary: Lewis schemed aggressively to compensate for the loss of Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and others with zone blitzes and blitzes from the secondary.

The Bears faced third-and-9 from their own 25-yard line on their opening drive of the first quarter. They lined up in a three-receiver set, with Thomas Jones as the lone back behind Rex Grossman. The Giants countered with their nickel package with R.W. McQuarters in the game in place of rookie linebacker Gerris Wilkinson. McQuarters was also on the field on the previous play; he blitzed from the nickel position, forcing a poor throw by Grossman. On this play, he shows blitz from the strong (offensive right) side, and linebacker Reggie Torbor also shows blitz from the strongside A-gap between the center and the guard.

The Giants' front four takes a wide alignment. Right end Fred Robbins lines up outside the left shoulder of left tackle John Tait. William Joseph, who spent much of the game playing end, covers the weakside A-gap as a defensive tackle. Rookie tackle Barry Cofield plays the 3-technique in the strongside B-gap. Mathias Kiwanuka is shaded to the inside shoulder of tight end Desmond Clark.

A split second before the snap, the Giants shift. Kiwanuka drops from the line, McQuarters and Torbor drop out of their blitz look, and deep safety Gibril Wilson, who was shaded to the right side of the offensive formation, rotates quickly to the left side. In that fraction of a second, the Giants reveal that they are running an overload blitz to the offensive right side. Unfortunately, the Bears don't have a pause button. Everything about the Giants formation and tendencies suggested a strong side blitz, and that's what the offensive line is prepared for.

At the snap, all three of the remaining Giants defensive linemen slant to their left. Kiwanuka drops into coverage in the flat zone. Joseph does an excellent job of forcing a double team by avoiding the block of Rueben Brown and crossing the face of center Olin Kreutz. Cofield occupies right tackle Fred Miller. Robbins starts straight up the field and works inside on Tait, demonstrating surprising quickness. Robbins easily beats Tait to the inside. It's a fine example of how a small thing like pre-snap alignment affects the outcome of a play. Robbins' wide alignment, coupled with Joseph's inside move to clear Brown, gave Robbins the space to beat a very good blocker.

Two Giants defenders blitz from the offensive left side behind the slanting linemen: linebacker Antonio Pierce and safety Will Demps. Both get a great jump at the snap: they