It's July, and nothing, nada, diddly-squat is happening in the NFL. That hasn't stopped me from watching the NFL Network every day. Watching NFLN in July is like watching the Weather Channel on a clear day. It's repetitive, and there's nothing to talk about, but the pretty colors and the cool jazz keep you tuned in.

Here's what I've learned.

In their continuing effort to spin straw into gold, the Saints acquired former Eagles linebacker Dhancin' Dhani Jones to help bolster their run defense. Wow, I wrote that sentence without snickering. To get into the Big Easy spirit, Jones may change his victory celebration from Air Banjo to Air Trombone; he'll toot the imaginary horn after he makes an important tackle (in other words, once every four games). Before signing with the Saints, Jones said he would work for Al Gore as an environmental activist. I feel bad for the Saints defense, but on the flip side, I'm suddenly optimistic about the giant panda.

Jones was on NFLN on Friday reciting poetry. Remember that awkward moment when your girlfriend opened her journal and shared her soul-bearing blank verse with you? ("Here I sit, listening to Morrissey, my heart an empty shell.") Now imagine your girlfriend weighing 230 pounds and wearing a bowtie. That's what NFLN was like on Friday.

In other Saints news, a group of Saintsations cheerleaders has been touring Iraq. The troupe performs at military bases around the Middle East, traveling from gig to gig in Black Hawk helicopters. Talk about Bombshells over Baghdad. The tour has been going smoothly except for one hitch. At a mobile army surgical hospital, a hairy Lebanese corporal donned a miniskirt and pompoms and attempted to sneak off with the girls. He was captured and sentenced to room with Jones in training camp.

The Falcons signed NFL Europa receiver Noriaki Kinoshita, who if he makes the team will be the first player born in Japan to play in the NFL. Bobby Petrino was initially excited by the move, then disappointed to learn that Kinoshita cannot throw a Gyroball. Michael Vick and other Falcons were also disappointed that the long time Amsterdam Admiral didn't smuggle any extra goodies with him from overseas. They hoped Kinoshita could score one of those hard-to-find Nintendo Wii systems. What were you thinking?

For months, NFLN has been running an American Heart Association public service announcement featuring Steve Smith and a bunch of kids running, skating, and swimming. The "Get Up and Move" spots were fast-paced and good-natured efforts to encourage kids to exercise, and Smith looked comfortable in front of the camera. Recently, the PSA was edited: Steve Smith is out, with Matt Leinart in his place. Leinart displays all of the charisma of a department store mannequin and reads his few lines as though he's translating on the fly from Lebanese. This guy is supposed to be "Hollywood"? On camera, he's barely Glendale.

Watching the Smith PSAs made my son want to swim the English Channel and hang glide over the Grand Canyon. But when he saw Leinart, he grabbed a crate a Pop Tarts and a blanket and settled in for a Spongebob marathon. It's time to retire the Leinart ads. The health of our children is at stake.

Don't get me wrong. I like Dhani Jones. He's a Renaissance man. The trouble is, they didn't have football in the Renaissance.

In non-NFLN news, the Sporting News season preview is out, and the otherwise solid publication predicts that the Cowboys will go 13-3 this season. Yes, 13-3. Who is making these predictions … Jon Kitna? Seriously, for the Lions to win 11 games (as predicted by the Oracle of Kitna) and the Cowboys to win 13, the Vikings will have to lose about 34 games.

Speaking of the sports bible, Donovan McNabb's rehabilitation from an ACL tear is on schedule. The Sporting News reported a few weeks ago that McNabb's regimen includes games of tag to improve agility and stop-start strength in the knee. Tag is no laughing matter: the collective bargaining agreement strictly prohibits Kick the Can, and rumor has it that Eric Mangini keeps his players in shape with a vigorous Red Light, Green Light drill. Donovan was apparently playing traditional tag, not freeze tag or TV tag ("Grey's Anatomy! You can't touch me!") TSN reports that at one point, a cornered McNabb improvised, stood at attention, and declared, "I'm a tree. You can't tag a tree." There's no truth to the rumor, however, that McNabb was hanging out with Kinoshita in Amsterdam.

I just realized that my Spell Checker is happily accepting "Kinoshita" without a little red underline. A quick Google search reveals a stunning model named Ayumi Kinoshita, a film director named Keisuki Kinoshita, a hotel named Casa Kinoshita in San Miguel, Mexico, and an NFL Europa receiver who was just signed by the Falcons. Apparently, Kinoshita is a fairly common name in Japan, and possibly Mexico. I'm told Tanier is pretty common in France, but Spell Checker never accepted it until I added it. Maybe if I could throw a Gyroball, or something.

Rookie tight end Greg Olsen signed a contract with the Bears. Olsen is eager to be in camp on time; he wants to master his timing with Rex Grossman. When he does, he'll be the first.

Okay, I'll cop: I watched a lot of NFLN on Friday because I thought I would be on. Indie filmmaker Tim Carr was hawking his movie "Leaf, an Almost True Story," and I appear in the film as a football humorist/historian. Yep, a stretch. Sadly, I wasn't in the clip Carr used, probably because I have the screen charisma of Matt Leinart.

Mike Nolan and Jack Del Rio have once again gotten league permission to wear cheap-looking suits designed by a sneaker company during games. The NFL should adopt a rule that if a coach wears a sneaker suit, then his players must wear Armani cleats. I don't have a problem with suits per se, and I know Nolan wears one as a tribute to his sick father, but I wish these guys were allowed to line up their own formalwear endorsements like NBA coaches. The typical NBA coach looks like who he is: a high-profile executive for a successful multi-million dollar corporation. The sneaker suits make Nolan and Del Rio look like Salesmen of the Month at the local used Hyundai dealership.

It could be worse, though. Rumor has it that liberal firebrand Michael Moore is working on a new film called "Slobbo," an expose on how Bill Belichick's wardrobe choices have unintended consequences for low-wage garment industry employees. In one of the film's most dramatic scenes, Moore and Belichick visit a dry cleaner for the first time in their lives.

Aaron would be miffed if I didn't mention that Football Prospectus will be out in just two weeks. A quick look at the Amazon sales board on Friday found us ranked 1,505th among books, pretty darn good for two weeks before the drop date. I told Aaron that we should call it Football Prospectus and the Deathly Hallows, but the muggle never listens to me. We're ranked 30th in sports books. Take that, Inner Game of Tennis! Be sure to check us out, even if sobriety prevents us from predicting a 13-3 season for the Cowboys or 11-5 season for the Lions.

Finally, as the father of two small children, I watch nothing but kiddie programming when I am not glued to NFL Network. I also see all of the superhero movies. I saw Spider-Man 3 and was disturbed by the amount of time Peter Parker spent dancing in the movie. I saw Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, and shielded my eyes as Reed Richards performed an elaborate dance at a New York club. Superheroes should not dance. Remember the Batutsi? Be glad you don't.

I bring this up because I haven't seen Transformers yet, but I heard a song from the soundtrack by the Goo Goo Dolls. It's a ballad. Worse yet, it is in 3/4 time, making it a waltz. A Giant Robot that Turns into Motorized Vehicle to Fight Evil Waltz. Mark my word, if champagne bubbles start floating and Optimus Prime starts waltzing in that movie, I am taking my kids and marching right out of the theater.

And if old Optimus starts playing Air Banjo or reciting poetry, I'm demanding a refund.

post by Mike Tanier

Upon hearing that Marshall Faulk officially retired, I was curious to see his place in history. Whenever I want historical information, I start at the excellent website Pro Football Reference. What I found on Faulk was what you would expect, namely he was an amazing player. More interesting was a finding on this page dealing with various leaders in yards from scrimmage. Much to my surprise, Faulk's replacement in St. Louis, Steven Jackson, gained the fifth most yards from scrimmage in history during a single season.

I watch a fair number of Rams games and was well aware that Jackson had a Pro Bowl-caliber season, but I did not realize he was doing anything historic. His total ranked only behind Faulk himself in 1999, Tiki Barber in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, and Barry Sanders in 1997. Not bad company at all.

Looking at those five dates, however, gives immediate pause as to the historical significance of Jackson's efforts. Quite simply, today's NFL places increased pressure on a single running back. Furthermore, the running back is featured in the passing offense at a much higher rate. Of the top 21 yards from scrimmage seasons of all time, 16 have taken place in the last 10 years. Even more amazing, four of the top 21 took place last season. Tomlinson ranks sixth all time, Larry Johnson 19th, and Frank Gore 21st.

What struck me about that total is that this was the year that the NFL was supposedly buying into multiple running backs. The presence of four split-carry situations in the Conference Championship Games led to numerous articles praising this phenomenon. Many at Football Outsiders have been calling for this sort of arrangement for years, in large part to avoid wearing down the primary back. I wanted to believe it was true, but a deeper look shows that radical change is not likely coming.

The copycat NFL was supposed to follow this trend, but two months into the off-season, it appears that the teams in the Conference Championship game themselves are not even following the trend themselves. The Super Bowl Champion Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency without much of an effort to retain him and with no obvious in-house solution to replace him. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets for draft picks and have no established back-up to Cedric Benson. The Patriots cut Corey Dillon leaving only Laurence Maroney and third-down back Kevin Faulk. Only New Orleans kept both of their running backs, and there, Reggie Bush's versatility makes it easier to play them both at the same time.

Of course, we could have seen this coming. As recently as 2005, the Colts gave 360 carries to Edgerrin James while the Bears gave Jones 314 in 15 games. The Patriots in 2004 gave Dillon 345 in 15 games. Clearly those coaching staffs were not afraid to ride a workhorse back. All three will have at their disposal young legs to lean on next year and will likely push those backs hard.

Overall last season, 10 running backs had 300 carries compared with 10 in 2005 and nine in 2004. Of the 9 in 2004, five have since missed at least six games in a season due to injury. Admittedly, these numbers are down from the peak of 13 in 2003, but that year was the exception. Nine backs had over 300 carries in both 2001 and 2002.

The failure of teams to adapt appears to be a mistake. The success of the playoff teams can easily be explained by other factors; the teams had three of the game's five best quarterbacks for one. More persuasive is the fact that of the top 10 teams in rushing offense DVOA, only two had a running back with 300 carries, San Diego with Tomlinson and New York with Barber. Of note, their back-ups, Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs, ranked first and eighth in DVOA (value on a per play basis) indicating that the offensive lines played a large role in each team's overall ranking.

Still, despite the success of these teams who split carries, the workhorse back appears here to stay. As long as that workhorse is also factored in the passing game, the single-season leaderboard for all-purpose yards will remain in constant flux. Jackson may yet suffer the same fate as William Andrews. The former Atlanta Falcon ranked sixth on this list from 1985 to 1997 and now finds himself 22nd.

Hopefully, Jackson does not mimic Andrews in another way. Coming off a 331 carry, 56 catch season in 1983, Jackson blew his knee out in training camp the next season. He gained only 249 yards from scrimmage the rest of his career.

Post by Ned Macey

If you read the FO blog regularly, you may remember that, halfway through the season, we introduced very early results from our game charting project. And surprisingly, those results had Fred Thomas as one of the better cornerbacks in the league in the early going. It was surprising because he's never been thought of as very good, and even more surprising as the season went on because Thomas was clearly one of the most flammable cornerbacks in the league in November and December.

Well, I think I have discovered why the early numbers were positive on Thomas. I just finished charting the second half of Carolina's Week 4 win over New Orleans, which was one of the unfinished games in the charting project. And Thomas sucked enough in this game to make up for the entire rest of the first month of the season.

At no time did Thomas get burned deep, except when he bit hard on a flea-flicker and completely left his man. Instead, this game showed the other problem with a bad cornerback. Because Thomas had to give so much room to Steve Smith (or sometimes Keyshawn Johnson) in order to prevent getting burned, he gave up tons of completions on hook routes and comeback routes.

Over the course of the game, we have 14 passes with Thomas in coverage: 11 to Steve Smith, 3 to Keyshawn Johnson. 13 of them were caught, and the 14th was caught but Steve Smith was sliding out of bounds so it was overturned on replay. Including the overturned catch as zero, the average play gained 8.2 yards. Based on the usual FO markers for success, 11 of the 14 passes were successful for the Panthers, but not one gained more than 17 yards.

9 of the 13 catches had no yards after catch, and 3 of the catches that had yards after catch were either screens or quick hitches (a.k.a. the "smoke" route) that are called because the cornerback is playing too far back off his man. It was just hook after hook. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Over and over.

I haven't heard the Saints mentioned in the Nate Clements sweepstakes. Nor have I heard them mentioned as possible trade partners to get Dre' Bly out of Detroit. But they should seriously consider one or the other, because that cornerback spot is the biggest hole on the team going into 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

So, I was playing around with the game charting data, and I decided to check out some of the stats that we included in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, to see if they stayed consistent this year. One of the biggest things in the charting is yards after catch -- STATS Inc. keeps that, but they really don't do a good job of making it public, so we wanted our own numbers. We did those not just for wide receivers, but also for tight ends, running backs -- and quarterbacks, to see who got the most extra yardage from hitting receivers in stride, throwing screens, or having Santana Moss on their team.

Comparing the two seasons was pretty interesting. (Actually, we're talking about the 2005 season compared to an incomplete sample from the first 13 weeks of the 2006 season, but I digress.) It's surprising how few quarterbacks played a significant amount of time on the same team, in the same system, in both 2005 and 2006. 30 quarterbacks had at least 80 charted passes in 2005 and at least 50 charted (so far) passes in 2006. But seven are now on different teams, and five (counting Mark Brunell) are in new offensive systems this year. Both of those could be big reasons why YAC would change.

At first glance, it doesn't look like quarterback YAC has a lot of correlation from one year to the next, but actually, the correlation coefficient is .33 for all the quarterbacks, and .41 for the quarterbacks who are on the same team as last year (no matter if the coaching staff changed or not). For the NFL, that's reasonably consistent.

Last year's top quarterback in YAC was Jake Delhomme, and he's fallen to the middle of the pack this year. (No duh, since Steve Smith hasn't been as explosive or used as much as last year.) But last year's number two, Donovan McNabb, is this year's top quarterback in YAC, by far: 8.0 yards per completion. Delhomme was at 6.1 last year, and nobody is above 6.7 in our incomplete sample of 2006.

Here's the remarkable stat for people who think Jeff Garcia is actually better than Donovan McNabb in that Philadelphia offense: Garcia is last this year with just 3.8 yards after catch. In the same offense, with the same receivers. It sure doesn't look like they're calling the plays differently -- the Eagles still throw bombs and hit Westbrook on screens -- but something is clearly different.

The rest of this year's top five: Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Mark Brunell, and Brett Favre. Brunell was third last year, but Garrard was near the bottom of the YAC rankings last year. That's an overall change in the Jacksonville offense, I think -- Garrard went from 43rd to third, and Leftwich went from 33rd to eighth.

Tom Brady was one of last year's leaders, but he's middle of the pack this year with the New England "seriously, who are these guys" wide receiver plan.

Another same team, different offensive philosophy: Culpepper was second this year and Joey Harrington is third from the bottom. The bottom five: Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Joey Harrington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair. All of those guys were middle of the pack in 2005 except Hasselbeck -- with a lot of specific routes to get first downs, and running backs who suck at receiving, Hasselbeck is just not going to get YAC.

There are a lot of other guys who are near the bottom in YAC both years, though -- they just aren't bottom FIVE this season. That includes Charlie Frye, Carson Palmer (surprising, I think), and Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Rick W.: I'm frustrated about Panthers running a draw play on third-and-9 with the game on the line against Washington three weeks ago. Do you have any stats to show what the NFL success rate of picking up a first down by RUNNING the ball on third-and-long?

Aaron Schatz: You know, this is the sort of thing that has always frustrated me too. So I went and looked at the numbers for this season through Week 14.

Here are the conversion rates on third down, yards to go, play, and percentage:

• 1-3     pass    50%
• 1-3     rushed  66%

• 4-6     pass    44%
• 4-6     rushed  42%

• 7-9     pass    36%
• 7-9     rushed  33%

• >10     pass    21%
• >10     rushed  16%

You know, that's not as different as I expected.  33% of rushes on third-and-7-9 convert.  Wow.  But there's one issue here -- you are talking about planned runs.  Not all these plays are planned runs. Many are scrambles.  Perhaps people have heard of this Vince Young fellow? Anyway, this year, they have started to mark scrambles in the play by play.  So we'll filter those out.

• 1-3     pass    50%
• 1-3     scramble 72%
• 1-3     other runs 66%

• 4-6     pass    44%
• 4-6     scramble        76%
• 4-6     other runs      33%

• 7-9     pass    36%
• 7-9     scramble        56%
• 7-9     rushed  25%

• >10     pass    21%
• >10     scramble        38%
• >10     rushed  10%

Yes, that looks more like it. The other issue here is that we're talking about a lot of situations. Many runs on third-and-long come when a team is just trying to get better field goal position, which is not the issue you are asking about.  I don't have the time to go in and split that out right now -- a project for later, perhaps.

By the way, through Week 14, the Panthers have run (non-scramble) 12 times with more than 3 yards to go and converted twice.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"At 1:55 PM EST, I witness my first Eagles first down. I am not a happy dude."

"Wow. Steve McNair just threw a ball directly at two Saints defenders -- both of whom whiffed on it -- and Todd Heap gets a touchdown surprise with

seconds to go in the first half. Man, this Billick guy really is a genius."

"The Bears took a 24-0 lead before the Niners executed their 8th play from scrimmage."

"Reggie Bush has been off his game all day, and he just tried to bounce a running play outside for a three-yard loss. As #### Engberg so aptly noted, this is the difference between the Pac-10 and the NFL."

"Boomer Esiason said on CBS post-game that David Garrard was the reason the Jaguars beat the Eagles, and that the Jaguars just play better with him in there. Unbelieveable. Garrard threw for 87 yards. The Jaguars ran all over a Philly defense that bit on every misdirection and completely forgot how to wrap up tackles. The Jaguars defense was all over the Eagles, who couldn't hold onto any passes. And Garrard is the reason they won. Sure."

"David Carr has been lifted for Sage Rosenfeld. Ouch!"

"The Titans seem to have gotten their defense together the last few weeks. If they finish 5-11, will Jeff Fisher still be fired? If so, how many teams will fire their coach and hope to pick Fisher up?"

"Who had Owen Daniels in his fantasy league?"

"Note to NFL quarterbacks – if you’re facing the Seahawks, and you have third and long, just heave the ball over the middle. Your guy will have 20 yards of open space all around him."

"When Ty Law is considered for the Hall of Fame, this game won't be on his highlight film. He dropped what could have been the easiest interception of his career. A couple plays later, he fell down and Darrell Jackson was wide open to catch a floater from Seneca Wallace for the touchdown. I think there was a pump-fake and maybe Law wanted to make up for the missed interception."

"This current defense will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And it should be thing that gets them in, from a talent standpoint."

"Just got back from the Giants game. However bad the wind looked on the field, it was worse in person. Neither team could do much of anything in conditions like that. Still, I didn't like Jon Gruden's gameplan, throwing 50 passes with a rookie QB in those conditions in a game they never trailed by more than two scores.

"Imagine what the Cardinals could do if their skill position players all had a good day at the same time."

"The Colts Broncos game has turned into a battle to see which is more powerful, the Peyton Manning offense, or the colossal power of suck emanating from the galaxy-sized Hoover that is the Indianapolis run defense."

"I liken Ben Roethlisberger to an old television set. If it's a little fuzzy, you hit it once and it works great. You hit again and it's back to being fuzzy".

"Roethlisberger just threw his fourth pick, this one for a 100-yard touchdown return. The rest of his throws have been awful. I mean, they've been so bad that somewhere Tommy Maddox is saying, in between giggling uncontrollably, 'Now that's an awful interception.'"

"When was the last time you saw Randy Moss do something really impressive?"

"The Jets got screwed. Don't get me wrong, the rules are the rules, and it's a split second decision. However, they got screwed. It's their own fault. They made so many mistakes during the game to eventually putthemselves in a position in which they could get screwed. So it goes."

"It seems like Bill Parcells is auditioning for Weekend at Bernie's 3. Has he reacted to anything? False starts, turnovers, questionable calls by the official ... he just stares into space like Art Shell."

"Jake Delhomme just went through a very Drew Bledsoe-like progression. He held onto the ball too long, threw late to his first read into double coverage, and got intercepted. All he needed was a star on his helmet and cement feet."

Read more of this commentary in Audibles at the Line at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

When I write about the New England Patriots, I often mention that they are the only team that features two of the top five players in the league, one on each side of the ball. I get criticized for this, or called a homer (I'm from Boston, for those who don't know). But I was thinking about it the other day, and the fact is -- how many teams can you really say feature a top ten player on each side of the ball? I'm not talking about a top ten player according to me, or even according to you, the reader. Just any player that a reasonable person might put in their NFL top ten overall (not top ten offense or top ten defense). If you think about it, there really are only three teams that qualify:

• New England, with Tom Brady and Richard Seymour
• Carolina, with Steve Smith and Julius Peppers
• Indianapolis, with Peyton Manning and Dwight Freeney

I wouldn't put Freeney in my top ten, because he has trouble against the run, but a lot of reasonable people consider him a top ten player. And that's it. Any other team, you really have to be stretching the idea of who a reasonable fan might consider a top ten player. For example, the closest possibilities might be:

• San Diego, with LT and either Shawne Merriman or Jamal Williams, although obviously Merriman looks a little different since his positive steroids test.
• Seattle, with Shaun Alexander or Matt Hasselbeck or Walter Jones, and then maybe Lofa Totupu.
• Pittsburgh, although it is very tough to put Big Ben in your top ten after the way he's played this year. Troy Polamalu or Joey Porter would represent the defensive side. (Late edit: A commenter mentions Alan Faneca as a possible top ten player to represent the Pittsburgh offense.)
  
• New York Giants, with Barber and either Antonio Pierce or Michael Strahan.
• Philadelphia with Donovan McNabb and Brian Dawkins (Late edit: I didn't know which Philly defender might be worthy of top ten consideration, but a commenter pointed out Brian Dawkins, which makes sense).
  

Then a few teams you would really, really be stretching it. Would anyone consider Kansas City defensive end Jared Allen a top ten player? Anybody on the Denver offense, to go with Champ Bailey? Is Jonathan Ogden still a possible top ten candidate, to go with somebody from the Baltimore defense? If you really want to stretch things, and be very forward-looking, I suppose you could consider Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Wilson in Arizona, but now I'm just being silly.

Anyway, this is one reason why so many people picked the Panthers this year, and pick the Patriots every year. It's just very rare to have a superstar-quality player on each side of the ball.

Post by Aaron Schatz