The Patriots have traded for Randy Moss, giving Tom Brady by
far the best receiver he has ever had and thereby guaranteeing the Patriots
another Super Bowl. That will be the
conventional wisdom. The only red flag
anyone will bring up is Moss' character concerns and whether he can fit into
the team-first approach in New England. Maybe that is an issue (it certainly was not
for Corey Dillon), but a bigger problem could be that Moss is simply no longer
a star player.
Similarity scores are a tool used to compare people to other
players who posted similar numbers over a given time period. A quick glance at
Moss’ three-year similarity profile is very alarming. (Only yards are listed,
but similarity scores also compare catches, touchdowns, and average yards per
catch.)
The names on the left are acceptable if not overly
impressive. More than half had over 7,000 receiving yards in their careers. The
numbers on the right represent the next season after the similar three-year
stretch. Only one receiver had more than 700 yards. Some of these guys had
another good season or two in them, but nobody hit 1,000 yards again.
Moss is a different animal because his peak was higher even
than that of Rison or Pearson. The other assumption is that Oakland was too dysfunctional and/or Moss
just did not care when he was there. Of course, both Doug Gabriel and Ronald
Curry had success there the past two seasons. Gabriel, of course, came to the
Patriots a season ago and struggled to get consistent playing time. Curry was actually the leading receiver on
the Raiders last season.
Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Aaron Brooks, Andrew
Walter, and Kerry Collins put together, but this is not Randy Moss circa
2002. Moss averaged a whopping 3.3
catches per game last season, and the once-dominant red zone threat scored just
three touchdowns. He caught only 43% of
the passes intended for him.
The truth is that Moss is 30 years old, and he always relied
heavily on his speed to get open. He is not the physical receiver that Terrell
Owens is or the master route-runner that Marvin Harrison is. As such, he is not
likely to age gracefully. Moss always
played better on the fast track of the Metrodome, so it is good news that the
Patriots have gotten rid of their grass field.
Is Randy Moss an upgrade for the Patriots? Certainly, considering Jabar Gaffney and
Reche Caldwell were their second and third receivers. But, I think it is a little wishful thinking
to see Moss as a better player than Deion Branch at this point in his
career. Branch also would have been a better fit
opposite Donte Stallworth than the supposed deep threat in Moss. Only once in the last six years has Moss
caught 60% of the passes intended for him, a total Branch hit three times in
four years with the Patriots.
Still, the Patriots have to be commended for playing this
one right. They unloaded Branch at the
height of his value for a first-round pick and now steal Moss away for a
fourth-round pick. His reputation alone
should help open up the running game and get Stallworth one-on-one
opportunities. Moss could easily get his
900 yards, 65 catches, and eight touchdowns, and the Patriots will be a better
team. Just don't expect Moss to team
with Brady to form some sort of Montana-Rice unstoppable duo.
When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49
million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive
lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy
dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109
million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard
really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as
low-cost and fungible.
The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats
for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back
carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack
Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In
addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project.
These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.
One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly
conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of
many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.
Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five
linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost
a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.
Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota
Vikings
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings
signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison
pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the
Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle
gave Hutchinson
the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot
Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing
salary cap, things would never be the same. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LG, Minnesota
Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League
Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19
League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 0 (the second straight
season Hutchinson
hasn’t been penalized) Comments: You’ll get arguments, but
most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some
time adjusting in Minnesota,
but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if
you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota
line – check out at the Seattle
line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’
front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from
ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st
in Mid/Guard ALY.
Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers
Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two
years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on
the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot
closer. Games Started (Position) 15 of 16
(15 LG, San Diego
Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average
4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1
Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding) Comments: Perhaps the most coveted
pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and
Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over
time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only
to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in
the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus
McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.
(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)
Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns
Contract: Seven years, $49.5
million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to
the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland,
though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati
Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left
Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 5 (5 False Start) Comments: Interesting note: While
the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of
the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an
Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average.
RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for
that.
Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million
guaranteed. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16
LG, Washington
Redskins) Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left
Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1
Offensive Holding) Comments: The Redskins were below
the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right
End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly
major part. Think they’ll miss him?
Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys
Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this
one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex
Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LT, Arizona
Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12)
Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37) Blown Blocks: 7 Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2
Offensive Holding) Comments: It’s quite simple, really.
If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial
reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the
President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings
(some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was
the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s
signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.
Recently, teams in the NFL have become associated with an interest in the players of certain schools: New England went after players from LSU and, more recently, have decided that receivers from Florida are the bees' knees. Atlanta's taken a liking to Virginia Tech alums, while Detroit has opted for drafting players from Texas.
There are different reasons for why this occurs. Sometimes, a coach was previously the coach at a college, and brings his old players in -- Steve Spurrier famously attempted this with Washington in 2003 and 2004 -- with the theory being that they've already been in their particular system for years. Other times, a coach has ties to the coach or the system used at a particular college, and brings in players who have already spent years in the system; this was the reason why Bill Belichick brought in players from Louisiana State, who had played in a similar system under Nick Saban, Belichick's former assistant in Cleveland.
It leads to an interesting question: Can teams gain an advantage on the opposition by focusing on drafting players from a particular school, conference, or region? The Atlanta Braves employ a similar strategy, focusing specifically on prep players from the suburbs of Atlanta in the draft. This strategy has led to the acquisition of players like Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Is the same true in the NFL? Let's take a look at four teams who focused on one particular college over a period of time and how those players from those teams turned out.
Los Angeles Rams, Ten players from UCLA, 1985-1993: This focus on UCLA is doubly ironic when you consider that the Rams' coach for most of this run was John Robinson, whose tenure with the Rams was preceded by seven years at, of all places, USC! St. Louis' picks from UCLA enjoyed better-than-average success: Tenth-rounder Duval Love spent twelve years in the NFL, fifth-rounder James Washington spent seven years in the league and was part of the Cowboys dynasty in the early-nineties, Flipper Anderson was the player that Alvin Harper was supposed to be, Darryl Henley was a competent linebacker, and Roman Phifer an excellent one. The only real disappointment amongst these picks was the one first-rounder the Rams used on a UCLA graduate, running back Gaston Green. Green left the Rams after three seasons, rushed for 1000 yards with the Broncos, and was out of football the year after.
Chicago Bears, Nine Players from Oklahoma, 1987-1992: Most of these picks were late-round flyers -- only one of them was higher than a fifth-rounder, second-rounder Dante Jones. Jones played several season for Chicago, but none of the other selections had any real career with the Bears.
Dallas Cowboys, Nine Players from Florida, 1983-1991: Another ironic one this; Jimmy Johnson, who made half of these picks, made his name at rival Miami. Tom Landry's side of these selections enjoyed varying levels of success: fourth-round TE Chris Faulkner didn't make the team, while third-round guard Jeff Zimmerman struggled with injuries and never panned out. Fellow third-round guard Crawford Ker was better, starting for several years. In Johnson's first draft, third-rounder Rhondy Weston wasn't good enough to make a 1-15 team. 1990, though, saw what may have been Johnson's best selection of his entire campaign in Dallas, selecting Emmitt Smith seventeenth overall. Godfrey Myles, chosen the year after in the third round, stuck around as a borderline starting linebacker and got out when the good times started to fade, finishing up in 1996.
Oakland Raiders, Nine Players from USC, 1971-1977: Oakland was averaging 10.7 wins off of a 14 game schedule over this time frame, so they were clearly doing something right. One of those things was drafting players from USC, almost all of whom played an important role on the team during this period. Fourth-rounder Clarence Davis stuck as a high-percentage scatback, the kind of player FO would have loved if it existed in the seventies. Skip Thorpe, taken in the seventh round, became a starting corner, while second rounder Charles Phillips went in as a big-play safety. Fellow second-rounder John Vella started at tackle and guard for most of the era, and even eighth-rounder Mike Rae stuck as a backup quarterback. The pick of the group, though, was when the twelfth round of the '77 draft rolled around and the Raiders grabbed linebacker Rod Martin. Martin would become a legend of the silver and black.
Denver's recent trade of
Tatum Bell and George Foster for Dre' Bly was just one more example in a long
history of discarded Denver
running backs. Since Olandis Gary turned in a 1,000-yard season subbing for
Terrell Davis in 1999, the Broncos have not had a running back lead the team in
rushes for more than two straight seasons.
Five different Denver backs -- Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, and Bell -- have put up
1,000-yard seasons in that time.
The Broncos clearly realized years before other teams that
running backs are often just a product of the system. The Colts just won the Super Bowl after
letting Edgerrin James leave in free agency. Shaun Alexander struggled just one
season after winning the MVP due to his own injuries and offensive line
struggles. The simple truth is that is
that more than 30 running backs could run for over 1,000 yards behind a solid
offensive line. The Broncos’ realization
of this fact has saved them cap space and allowed them to acquire the best pair
of corners in football. (Champ Bailey
came in a previous trade for Clinton Portis.)
All of the above is true, but the next logical step after
"running backs are fungible" is "all running backs are created
equal." But this is not necessarily the case. Six different running backs have led the
Broncos in rushing the past eight seasons, but they have been far from equal.
Here is a look at how each one did in our Football Outsiders advanced stats of
DPAR (which measures total value) and DVOA (which measures value per play):
1999: Gary
18.7 DPAR, 0.5% DVOA
2000: Anderson
28.4 DPAR, 9.5% DVOA
2001: Davis
9.3 DPAR, -3.1% DVOA
2002: Portis 45.2 DPAR, 23.1% DVOA
2003: Portis 37.0 DPAR, 15.3% DVOA
2004: Droughns 16.4 DPAR, -0.8% DVOA
2005: Anderson
27.0 DPAR, 20.3% DVOA
2006: T.Bell 11.0 DPAR -2.1% DVOA
As an aside, Terrell Davis trumps even Portis. He had 59.1
and 65.7 DPAR in 1997 and 1998 respectively, leading the league each year. He
also led the league in DVOA in 1998, and was second in 1997, narrowly behind
Barry Sanders.
Not surprisingly, given the inconsistent running backs, the
Broncos offense has had some wild swings during this period. Despite their
sterling reputation, they have had three below average seasons running the football.
Here's a look at total offensive DVOA as well as rushing offense for Denver as a team:
1999: -5.3% Offense, -0.7% Rushing
2000: 19.1% Offense, 14.3%
Rushing
2001: -6.2% Offense, -6.5%
Rushing
2002: 17.0% Offense, 20.4%
Rushing
2003: 8.6% Offense, 8.1% Rushing
2004: 11.3% Offense, 1.6%
Rushing
2005: 23.4% Offense, 23.0%
Rushing
2006: -8.1% Offense, -6.7%
Rushing
The Broncos have had two main quarterbacks during this
period, Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. The offensive line has not been
consistent outside of Tom Nalen, who has anchored the line during this whole
period. Nalen is the only Denver
offensive lineman who has made the Pro Bowl during this period.
Maybe uncertainty in the line corresponds with the decreases
in effectiveness, but I’d argue that perhaps Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis
are better players than the other backs. Tatum Bell was more successful in 2005
than last year, but he was still substantially less productive from a DVOA
perspective than Anderson
was.
I think the Broncos got the better of the trade with Detroit, but at a certain
point, the Broncos may be getting too cute. They are consistently above
average, but only once in the past four years (2005) did they have a truly outstanding offense. And yet, they continue with the same strategy.
The next 1,000-yard rusher will likely be the recently
signed Travis Henry. Denver
signed him to a sizable contract, perhaps realizing that not all backs are
created equal. The problem is that Henry has proven himself solid, but below
average. He has yet to post a positive DVOA in Buffalo
or Tennessee
despite multiple 1,000-yard seasons. In general, he has always put up high
yardage totals simply because teams kept giving him the ball as the starting
running back.
This year, Henry will probably rack up another 1,200
yards or more, and everyone will pat Denver
on the back for adding another name to the list of seemingly
successful backs they have created. It is far from certain, however, that Henry
will be more like Portis than Droughns. Anybody can gain yardage in the Denver system, but not
just anyone can be a star.
Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.
It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.
Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.
Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.
Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.
Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.
Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.
Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?
Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.
Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.
Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.
Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?
Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.
Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.
Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.
Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.
So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.
Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.
Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)
My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.
Joe Horn
1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.
Eric Moulds
1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings
This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.
Keenan McCardell
X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals
Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.
So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.
Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.
What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.
Jamal Lewis
1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers
You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.
Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.
Drew Bledsoe
1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins
Let me say this as clearly and simply as possible: Norv Turner can't coach. He's an awful hire for the Chargers. He's going to undo everything that the team has accomplished over the last three years.
Turner's all-time record as a head coach is 58-82-1. That's bad. His teams have won 10 games exactly once in nine seasons. That's truly bad. Even a blind squirrel stumbles upon more than one nut per decade. Even Rich Kotite reached double-digits in wins two times. If Chargers fans are sick of Marty Schottenheimer because he always loses in the playoffs, they can take solace in the fact that Turner never reaches the playoffs. His all-time playoff record as a head coach is 1-1.
But Turner is a great offensive mind, you say? Turner the coordinator is only slightly more effective than Turner the coach. Since 1994, only one Turner-coached offense (head coach or coordinator) has finished in the top-10 in the NFL in DVOA: the 1999 Redskins. If you don't like DVOA, fine. Only one Turner-coached team has finished in the top 10 in points scored or yards gained: the 1999 Redskins. His teams – the 1994-2000 Redskins, the 2001 Chargers, the 2002-03 Dolphins, the 2004-05 Raiders, the 2006 Niners -- usually finish between 12th and 24th in the league in the major offensive categories. A 12th place finish isn't bad, but if offense is your strong point, you have to do better.
Turner's supporters point out that he often takes over terrible offenses, so his ability to take them from 32nd to 16th in the league is an accomplishment. I'd like to introduce those supporters to my friend Mr. Central Tendency. Mr. Tendency makes bad teams mediocre with the help of friends like Mr. Law of Averages and Mr. High Draft Choice. Once these misters have done their business, Turner doesn't have to do much to make a middling offense. His efforts with the Niners last season were typical. He took over a team that ranked dead last in offensive DVOA. Their rookie quarterback became a second-year quarterback, they spent a high draft choice on a tight end, they signed a veteran All Pro offensive guard, and Frank Gore emerged as a featured back. Thanks to all this and a little bit of Turner brilliance, the Niners climbed all the way to 24th in DVOA. Way to go Norv!
Of course, if a team climbed from 32nd to 24th to 12th to third on Turner's watch, that would be a sign of competence. But Turner never hangs around that long. If Turner were a business executive, he would take companies that were $20 million in debt, cut the debt to $12 million, and claim success. Then, after he left, the debt would go back to $20 million. Have you seen the Dolphins or Raiders offenses lately? That's the extent of Turner's post-Cowboys resume: he takes crappy teams, makes them slightly less crappy, then leaves before anyone notices that he hasn't coached a good offense since 1999. Then, the crappiness returns. Turner Boosters claim that the return to crappiness is a sign of Norv's genius: see, that was a 4-12 team before and after Turner, and only he could make them 7-9. You would think that such a great coach and developer of talent (more on that in a minute) would leave teams better off than they were when he arrived.
Oh yeah, the Cowboys. Turner made his name with Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, of course, and those teams posted some impressive offensive totals. The trouble is that my mom could have coached that team into the Super Bowl. "Here, Troy, here's a football. Give it to Emmit a lot, throw it Michael a lot. Remember that the offensive line will only give you a minute or two to make your decision on most plays, so choose wisely."
Turner has milked every drop of mojo he could from his stint with the Cowboys. In fact, you will probably read an article by Troy Aikman on the main FOX site in the next few days praising Turner. I don't want to knock Aikman. Aikman's toenail clippings contain more football knowledge than is lodged in my entire cranium. But Aikman just isn't impartial when it comes to his former coach. Aikman will often say that Turner made him into a great player, but Aikman was always destined to be a great player. He has it backwards: Aikman turned Turner into a viable coaching candidate. Chargers fans will pay the price over the next few years.
Offensive stats tell just part of the story. Compared to Turner the Motivator, Turner the Offensive Guru is a genius. Turner lets the boys be boys, with predictable results. His teams generally fade down the stretch and descend into squabbling while he sends out applications for his next gig. His Redskins underachieved. His Raiders underachieved. The Chargers, coming off a 14-2 season, have plenty of room for underachievement.
And yet Turner keeps getting hired, thanks in part to the old boy network and in part to the Turner Boosters who incomprehensible excuse and rationalize his failings. Turner is a great developer of young talent … you've heard that, right? In addition to Aikman and Irvin, he developed Trent Green, Terry Allen, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore, and more. Actually, that's about it, and it’s a list that includes lots of players who would have been superstars unless a coach told them to bulk up to 400 pounds or cut out their ACLs in their sleep. Turner Boosters give their man credit for "developing" any player who ever did well on any of the teams he coached. The list looks pretty good because Turner coached all over the place and therefore rubbed shoulders with all sorts of top prospects.
Alex Smith is Norv's latest success story: Smith went from an awful rookie to a pretty mediocre soph (35th in the league in DPAR) in what looks like the standard career arc for a young quarterback. If Smith is an All Pro in two years, you can bet that Turner Boosters will put the feather in their man's cap.
Norv Turner is a lousy coach. He might be effective as a receivers or quarterbacks coach, where he can teach footwork and arm motion and never make a game-affecting decision. But he's awful as a coordinator and poison as a head coach. The Chargers made a stupid decision. He'll take them to 10-6 this season, miss the playoffs, and claim success. Broncos and Chiefs fans have reason to celebrate, and even Raiders fans can feel like the smart kids for a few weeks.
I was thinking about the strange case of Michael Turner. How many backup running backs average six yards per carry over three seasons? (5.99, to be precise.) San Diego will give their restricted free agent a sweet tender, so teams that want Turner have to give up either a first-round pick or a first and a third. Part of the question is what happens to Turner going forward, so I thought I would look for similar players using FO similarity scores.
Looking at a three-year span, one player stands out, far ahead of everyone else:
849: Stump Mitchell, STL (1981-1983)
807: Bill Johnson, CIN (1985-1987)
799: Hokie Gajan, NO (1982-1984)
781: Ron Rivers, DET (1996-1998)
780: Booker Russell, SD (1978-1980)
779: Najeh Davenport, GB (2002-2004)
778: Barry Redden, LA RAMS (1982-1984)
Everyone else is below 770.
Mitchell provides a fascinating look at what life might be like for Michael Turner if free agency did not exist. Like Turner, he was drafted by a team that already had one of the league's top running backs, Ottis Anderson. But unlike Turner, there was no threat that he would go anywhere, in restricted OR unrestricted free agency. He kept plugging along with 5.5 yards per carry each year, along with play on special teams. In his fourth season, 1984, he became a receiving threat, with more catches, yards, and touchdowns receiving than in his first three seasons combined.
Anderson started having some injury issues, so Mitchell's playing time finally went up in 1985. He gained 1,000 yards with just 183 carries, 5.5 yards per carry, with seven touchdowns rushing and another three receiving. In 1986, he had 174 carries and played well again, although he averaged a career-low (to that point) 4.6 yards per carry. For that to be a career-low, well, that shows you how good he was through 1986. By this point, he was sharing the job with Earl Ferrell rather than Anderson. 1987 was his career high, 203 carries, but actually his worst season, just 3.8 yards per carry. He rebounded with another good year as a part-timer in 1988, played a handful of games in 1989, and that was that. He's now the running backs coach in Seattle, where he's partly responsible for Shaun Alexander's MVP season.
Bill Johnson's third year is the strike year and he never played again, the strike means that's probably not worth looking at.
Hokie Gajan also had three great seasons but in the fourth year had injury problems. He also never played again, but that clearly was not an issue of talent. He's now the Saints' radio color guy.
Here's a look at two-year similarities:
839: Mitchell, 1982-1983
810: Charlie Garner, PHI, 1995-1996
803: Redden, 1983-1984
802: Russell, 1978-1979
798: Gajan, 1983-1984
795: Richard Huntley, PIT, 1998-1999
794: Maurice Morris, SEA, 2002-2003
786: LaMont Jordan, NYJ, 2003-2004
Once again, Mitchell is ahead of everyone else. If you are Michael Turner's agent, you like that Charlie Garner similarity second. We know Garner now as a pass-catching back, but he actually had only 32 catches in his first three seasons, and he averaged 5.4 and 5.2 yards per carry in 1995 and 1996. When he finally moved to San Francisco in 1999, he became a starter and one of the best backs in the league. LaMont Jordan also acquitted himself well once he got a starting job, especially considering the quality of the Oakland line. Huntley went to Carolina for a year, played well, but that was the end of his career.
All in all, I think this is another piece of evidence that Turner would be excellent as a starting back somewhere other than San Diego. Will that happen? Probably not this year, but I bet it happens in 2008. Maybe, if Shaun Alexander has more injury problems, Turner can go off to Seattle and be coached by Stump Mitchell.
OK, so I was just charting the Week 4 game between Baltimore and San Diego, one of the games which had fallen through the cracks in the game charting project. This one is famous as the game where Martyball died, and it really is ridiculous to watch the Chargers line up in a 2-TE I formation on second-and-18.
But that's not the strangest part of the offensive game plan. You know that play where the wide receiver motions in tight, then comes around for a fake end-around after the QB has handed the ball to the running back? In the third quarter, the Chargers ran that on THREE STRAIGHT PLAYS. Then they ran it again two plays later. Then, on the next series, they ran it two more times. That's six times in the space of roughly ten offensive snaps.
The point of this play is to set up the actual end-around later. So did the Chargers ever run an actual end-around? Nope. Eric Parker just keeps running around behind the quarterback, not blocking anyone, with the Ravens completely ignoring him.
Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370
Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was
going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read
the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and
keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?
I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that
LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is
your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?
Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.
And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.
I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.
By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.
Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:
"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."
"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."
"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."
"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."
"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."
"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."
"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"
"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."
"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"
"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."
"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."
"This is a great game between two very good teams."
"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."
"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"
"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."
"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."
"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."
"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.
"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"
"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."
"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."
Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?
"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."
"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."
"Clutch interception by Brady."
"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"
"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."
"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."
Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.
One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.
Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:
9. Philadelphia (11%)
11. Baltimore (11%)
15. Chicago (10%)
22. New England (7%)
24. New Orleans (6%)
25. Seattle (6%)
27. San Diego (5%)
32. Indianapolis (3%)
The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.
Nathaniel Freedman: Where does LT's 2006 season rank in relation to the list of Top 10 fantasy seasons listed in PFP 2006?
Aaron Schatz: For those who don't own Pro Football Prospectus 2006 -- and if you don't, you should! -- we did an article about the greatest fantasy seasons of all time. The idea was not total fantasy points, but rather who had the most points using "Value-Based Drafting," where each player's value is the difference between him and the last drafted starter at his position.
The top season there was O.J. Simpson in 1975. LT was on pace to break O.J. Simpson's record, but actually faded a bit in his last couple games, with no touchdowns and just 66 rushing yards in Week 17.
In the end, Tomlinson ended up 262 fantasy points better than the #24 running back, Warrick Dunn, using our simple equation of 1 point for 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown. Looking at a season total, that would come out as the best fantasy season of all time. However, in the article we adjusted for the 14-game season before 1978. Do that, and Tomlinson still falls behind O.J. Simpson's 1975 season. That year, Simpson had 2,243 yards from scrimmage, almost 500 yards more than any other player in the league -- in fact, only two other players were above 1,500. He also led the league with 23 touchdowns, and Chuck Foreman had 22, and nobody else had more than 16.
The Boston Herald today ran a list of all of Marty Schottenheimer's playoff games. It does remind you of all the mishaps. A quick glance at the list makes it look like Marty's teams have blown a lot of fourth quarter leads. But actually, if you go through and add together all of these games, and look at the score quarter-by-quarter, can you guess which quarter is the one where Marty's teams historically have been outscored?
Nope, not the fourth quarter.
Schottenheimer teams 68 53 82 108 6 Other teams 69 111 73 113 6
I think the bigger worry for San Diego fans is that Schottenheimer twice had a team earn the number one seed and lose their first playoff game anyway.
The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:
Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.
All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.
Baltimore
I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.
McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.
As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.
Chicago
The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender, and only 48 with Vasher as the main defender. We've charted more passes at Tillman than any other defender in the league, and while you might think this is because some teams have incomplete data this year, Tillman was second behind Ike Taylor in 2005, and Vasher was way behind Tillman last year as well.
Ricky Manning comes out with a lower stop rate and more yards allowed per pass (46%, 7.7). Also, he's a ####.
Like I said, linebacker numbers aren't quite as trustworthy as cornerback numbers. But Lance Briggs has a 62% stop rate, second behind Zach Thomas, and allows 4.6 yards per pass, second behind Keith Bulluck. He was near the top in both categories last year too. Briggs is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.
New Orleans
OK, this one is really strange. When I first looked at charting data, Fred Thomas came out as one of the top guys in the league. Then he got injured, and when he came back he was getting super-toasted by everybody he tried to cover. Now his n
