As the stock of Michigan DT Alan Branch seems to drop further and further in the upcoming NFL draft (having two broken legs generally doesn't help), he's being pushed below fast-rising Amobi Okoye on most draft boards. Indeed, NFLDraftScout.com's defensive tackle rankings list Okoye above Branch. Listed below them is Tennessee's Justin Harrell, who's seen as a notch below the other two first round-graded tackles.

Allow me to hazard a prediction, right now, that Harrell will end up being the best of the three.

Why? Because, simply put, highly-regarded SEC defensive tackles are as much of a lock as any other position and conference in the draft.

Since 1995, 11 defensive tackles from the SEC have been selected in the top two rounds of the draft. They include:

- James Manley

- Booger McFarland

- Reggie McGrew

- Cornelius Griffin

- Gerard Warren

- Richard Seymour

- Marcus Stroud

- John Henderson

- Albert Haynesworth

- DeWayne Robertson

- Johnathan Sullivan

Of the 11, only three were busts: Manley (who never played an NFL down), McGrew, and Sullivan, who ate his way out of the league. The other eight are all starters and considered top-tier NFL defensive tackles.

In addition, many SEC defensive tackles that were drafted in the later rounds made it to the NFL, including Shane Burton, Jason Ferguson, Michael Myers, Darwin Walker, Kendrick Clancy, Ian Scott, Kenny King, and Chad Lavalais

The Big 10, on the other hand, enjoys no such regard. Since Dan Wilkinson went first overall in 1994, they have struggled to put out quality defensive tackles. Second-rounder Nathan Davis played two games with the Falcons before they cut him. Wendell Bryant was drafted 12th overall in 2002 by the Cardinals and is now out of football.

Even the success stories aren't that successful. Jimmy Kennedy has matured into a NFL starter, albeit not a very good one; Anthony Adams still has a job but hasn't broken through, and was let go by the 49ers after three seasons, and Jonathan Babineaux is still behind Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson in Atlanta. The only Big 10 tackle to be a real success since Wilkinson is Chargers DT Luis Castillo, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

The highest-drafted defensive tackle in Conference USA (Okoye's home conference for the majority of his college career) history is former UAB DT Eddie Freeman, who was out of the league after 20 games.

Does this mean that making a move for Okoye or Branch is an obvious mistake? Not really. Okoye has that massive upside, and Branch is the only legit nose tackle that's Day 1-caliber. Picking Harrell, though, sure would look like a nice move for a team looking for defensive line depth. Don't be surprised if one of the "smarter" organizations in the league grab him at the end of the first round.

written by Bill Barnwell

Pac-Man Jones is going to take a major hit in the wallet now that commissioner Roger Goodell has suspended him for the year without pay. But let's talk about the other people who will be heavily affected by this decision: The Tennessee Titans players, coaches and fans.

Remember how good everybody felt about the Tennessee Titans at the end of last season? There's now very little chance of that carrying over into 2007. Pac-Man Jones was a major distraction, but he was also the best player on that team. He wasn't a year or two away from being a shutdown corner -- he already was a shutdown corner, the best one in the NFL outside of Denver.

Our game charting numbers for 2006 are now very close to complete; we're missing eight games out of the entire season. Look at how Pac-Man Jones rated compared to the league's other corners.

Yards allowed per pass attempt (minimum 48 passes)

• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 5.4 yds/att
• Jason Craft, NO: 5.5 yds/att
• R.W. McQuarters, NYG: 5.6 yds/att
• Walt Harris, SF: 5.9 yds/att
• Nate Vasher, CHI: 5.9yds/att
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 5.9 yds/att
• Nick Harper, IND: 6.0 yds/att
  
• Asante Samuel, NE: 6.2 yds/att

Stop rate (stopping plays short of 40% of yards on first, 60% on second, 100% on third)

• Jason Craft, NO: 64%
• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 63%
• Al Harris, GB: 62%
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 61%
• Courtland Finnegan, TEN: 61%
• Charles Tillman, CHI: 60%
• Mike McKenzie, NO: 60%
• Chris McAlister, BAL: 60%

The Titans can take some solace in the fact that they already signed Nick Harper to be Pac-Man's partner if he stayed, and Pac-Man's replacement if he was suspended. But Harper allowed very few yards per pass in part because people were throwing ahead of him in zone coverage (we count those passes as half-credit). Courtland Finnegan is promising, but at 48 passes he barely hits the minimum here. Like Jason Craft and Mike McKenzie R.W. McQuarters (sorry about the earlier mistake, Saints fans -- Aaron), he's a nickel back usually facing lesser receivers. The other names here are practically a who's who of the best cornerbacks in the league, although it is missing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden (injured part of last year) and Nate Clements and Rashean Mathis (who are just below these rankings in both stats).

Say what you will about his personality, but Jones is an exceptionally talented football player. Very few starting cornerbacks reach this level of performance in their second year. He was only going to get better in 2007. Now he's gone, and a lot of Tennessee's playoff hopes are gone with him.

You might not feel bad for the Titans -- after all, didn't they know about Pac-Man's troubles when they drafted him? Yes, they did. But a lot of players who get in trouble in college at the age of 20 turn out to be fine when they get older. Plenty of NFL players come from bad neighborhoods, and have friends still in those neighborhoods, but clean up their act when they hit the pros. The Titans just had the bad luck to find one of those who didn't. The better he got as a player, the worse his act got off the field.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?

Well, maybe.

Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren’t always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.

Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.

Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.

A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:

Team     Tackles        Run Defense Rank

Bills         1,076          29th

Titans      1,059         28th

Jets          1,052        32nd

Colts       1,010         31st

Bucs       1,004         9th

It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.

But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.

If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.

So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.

Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.

The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.

post by Mike Tanier

Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."

It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.

Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.

The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.

Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):

1. Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
2. Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
3. Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
4. Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
5. Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
6. Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
7. Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
8. Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
9. Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
10. Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals

Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.

Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.

On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.

It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.

What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.

On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?

Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.

Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.

Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:

1. Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
2. Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
3. J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
4. Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
5. Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
6. Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
7. Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
8. Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
9. Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
10. Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
    

Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Denver's recent trade of Tatum Bell and George Foster for Dre' Bly was just one more example in a long history of discarded Denver running backs. Since Olandis Gary turned in a 1,000-yard season subbing for Terrell Davis in 1999, the Broncos have not had a running back lead the team in rushes for more than two straight seasons.  Five different Denver backs -- Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, and Bell -- have put up 1,000-yard seasons in that time.

The Broncos clearly realized years before other teams that running backs are often just a product of the system.  The Colts just won the Super Bowl after letting Edgerrin James leave in free agency. Shaun Alexander struggled just one season after winning the MVP due to his own injuries and offensive line struggles.  The simple truth is that is that more than 30 running backs could run for over 1,000 yards behind a solid offensive line.  The Broncos’ realization of this fact has saved them cap space and allowed them to acquire the best pair of corners in football.  (Champ Bailey came in a previous trade for Clinton Portis.)

All of the above is true, but the next logical step after "running backs are fungible" is "all running backs are created equal." But this is not necessarily the case.  Six different running backs have led the Broncos in rushing the past eight seasons, but they have been far from equal. Here is a look at how each one did in our Football Outsiders advanced stats of DPAR (which measures total value) and DVOA (which measures value per play):

• 1999: Gary 18.7 DPAR, 0.5% DVOA
• 2000: Anderson 28.4 DPAR, 9.5% DVOA
• 2001: Davis 9.3 DPAR, -3.1% DVOA
• 2002: Portis 45.2 DPAR, 23.1% DVOA
• 2003: Portis 37.0 DPAR, 15.3% DVOA
• 2004: Droughns 16.4 DPAR, -0.8% DVOA
• 2005: Anderson 27.0 DPAR, 20.3% DVOA
• 2006: T.Bell 11.0 DPAR -2.1% DVOA

As an aside, Terrell Davis trumps even Portis. He had 59.1 and 65.7 DPAR in 1997 and 1998 respectively, leading the league each year. He also led the league in DVOA in 1998, and was second in 1997, narrowly behind Barry Sanders.

Not surprisingly, given the inconsistent running backs, the Broncos offense has had some wild swings during this period. Despite their sterling reputation, they have had three below average seasons running the football. Here's a look at total offensive DVOA as well as rushing offense for Denver as a team:

• 1999: -5.3% Offense, -0.7% Rushing
• 2000:  19.1% Offense, 14.3% Rushing
• 2001:  -6.2% Offense, -6.5% Rushing
• 2002:  17.0% Offense, 20.4% Rushing
• 2003:  8.6% Offense,  8.1% Rushing
• 2004:  11.3% Offense, 1.6% Rushing
• 2005:  23.4% Offense, 23.0% Rushing
• 2006:  -8.1% Offense, -6.7% Rushing

The Broncos have had two main quarterbacks during this period, Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. The offensive line has not been consistent outside of Tom Nalen, who has anchored the line during this whole period. Nalen is the only Denver offensive lineman who has made the Pro Bowl during this period.

Maybe uncertainty in the line corresponds with the decreases in effectiveness, but I’d argue that perhaps Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis are better players than the other backs. Tatum Bell was more successful in 2005 than last year, but he was still substantially less productive from a DVOA perspective than Anderson was.

I think the Broncos got the better of the trade with Detroit, but at a certain point, the Broncos may be getting too cute. They are consistently above average, but only once in the past four years (2005) did they have a truly outstanding offense. And yet, they continue with the same strategy.

The next 1,000-yard rusher will likely be the recently signed Travis Henry. Denver signed him to a sizable contract, perhaps realizing that not all backs are created equal. The problem is that Henry has proven himself solid, but below average. He has yet to post a positive DVOA in Buffalo or Tennessee despite multiple 1,000-yard seasons. In general, he has always put up high yardage totals simply because teams kept giving him the ball as the starting running back.

This year, Henry will probably rack up another 1,200 yards or more, and everyone will pat Denver on the back for adding another name to the list of seemingly successful backs they have created. It is far from certain, however, that Henry will be more like Portis than Droughns. Anybody can gain yardage in the Denver system, but not just anyone can be a star.

Post by Ned Macey 

Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.

It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.

Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.

Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.

Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.

Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.

Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.

Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?

Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.

Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.

Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.

Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?

Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.

Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.

Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.

post by Mike Tanier

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.

So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.

Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.

Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)

My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.

Joe Horn

1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets

This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.

Eric Moulds

1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings

This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.

Keenan McCardell

X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals

Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.

So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.

Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.

What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.

Jamal Lewis

1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers

You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.

Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.

Drew Bledsoe

1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins

Dude, it's over.

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Colts finally made the Super Bowl for a number of reasons. One of the major changes is one receiving very little press in the lead-up to the Super Bowl: the improvement of Peyton Manning. He greatly improved his mobility inside the pocket allowing the Colts to change the emphasis of their offense.

The change was subtle, as the Colts still run the same formations and plays they have been running for years. A look at the season totals, however, show that their confidence in Manning's ability to stay upright has led to increase emphasis on getting their Pro Bowl wide receivers down the field. As a result, per our advanced metrics, Manning had arguably the best season of his career. (2004 was slightly more valuable, but the increased offensive environment of that year makes this year more impressive).

Manning has always been rarely sacked. Sure, the offensive line deserves some credit, but for years Manning has unloaded the ball almost immediately upon finishing his drop back. This year the Colts were more comfortable with giving the outside receivers an opportunity to get open down the field.

One asset of Manning is that when the pressure comes, he is willing to dump the ball off to his running backs. In fact, Manning has been much more willing to do that this year. Breaking down his pass breakdown is difficult because Dallas Clark plays wide receiver and tight end. Looking at three groups, starting wide receivers, other wide receivers or tight ends, and running backs, the change this year becomes obvious.

In 2005, Manning attempted 451 passes. 56% were intended for Harrison or Wayne; 32% went to other wide receivers or tight ends, and 12% went to running backs. This year, in 553 passes, only 52% went to the starting wideouts; 31% went to other, and 16% went to running backs.

Harrison and Wayne saw a lower percentage of passes, but the ones they saw were much more valuable. The two receivers ranked first and second in DPAR, measuring total value, and by DVOA which measures on a per play basis, they were first and second among receivers targeted 70 or more times.

You don't need our advanced stats to see the increased value of these two receivers. Each player had the second highest yards per catch of his career. This increase was largely attributable to consistent 10-20 yard gains rather than big plays.

Yards per catch

• Harrison: 14.0 in 2005, 14.4 in 2006
• Wayne: 12.7 in 2005, 15.2 in 2006

Percentage of catches getting first down

• Harrison: 72% in 2005, 82% in 2006
• Wayne: 65% in 2005, 84% in 2006

Percentage of catches over 20 yards

• Harrison: 17% in 2005, 19% in 2006
• Wayne: 13% in 2005, 21% in 2006

In 2004, Harrison and Wayne played opposite roles from 2005 with Harrison working underneath and Wayne down the field. This year was the first time that both of them consistently were pushing the defense. Manning's increased mobility in the pocket allows the receivers time to get open.

As a result, teams are almost forced to give safety help. Harrison and Wayne often run routes near the sideline. As a result, the middle of the field becomes wide open.

Consider the Patriots game, where Wayne and Harrison had seemingly poor games. Their impact was still felt. The Patriots ranked 4th in DVOA defending tight ends and extra wide receivers. With so much attention on the two receivers, Dallas Clark, Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, and Bryan Fletcher combined for 11 catches for 197 yards.

The plays the receivers did make later opened up the field for Clark et al. Early in the game, the Colts tried to go deep several times, and New England cornerbacks made good plays in single coverage. With the cornerbacks playing the deep pass, the Colts shortened up the routes and started bleeding the Patriots.

Their first touchdown drive of the second half include four of five passes intended for Harrison or Wayne. Immediately on the next drive, Clark got open for his first big catch of the game.

To that point, Clark had caught only three of six passes intended for him for 37 yards. From this point forward, he caught three for four for over 90 yards.

A big run and a pass interference call on an attempt to Wayne set up the touchdown. Harrison beat Samuel for the two-point conversion and the game was tied. The next drive, the Patriots kept the receivers covered, and the linebackers deep to slow Clark. As a result, Manning hit the running backs on all his attempted passes.

On perhaps the most crucial play of the game, the Colts hit a 32-yard pass play to Fletcher. First, Manning had the confidence in his internal mobility to allow his tight end to work all the way to the sideline and up the field. Second, the attention paid to the receivers left Fletcher in man coverage by a linebacker with no safety help.

The Bears face the best passing offense in football. They have to get pressure on Manning, but unlike in past years, he does not unload the ball on the first sign of trouble. As a result, the receivers will be putting constant pressure on the cornerbacks and young safeties. Pinch to the outside, and Manning will wait for Clark to work down the middle. Drop everyone deep, and he will hit his backs underneath. The Colts have always been versatile this way, but the confidence to let plays develop longer makes them nearly impossible to defend.

Post by Ned Macey

Well, it’s official (ha!): the referee for Super Bowl XLI between the Colts and Bears will be Tony Corrente. As we did before the Conference Championship games, let’s break down penalty tendencies, FO-style, using our regular season penalty database. 

NOTE: Postseason crews are not the same ones assigned to the referee all season – these are “all-star” crews. Because of that, it’s not quite as easy to get a comprehensive picture, but the referee has more than enough effect on the game to make season tendencies worthwhile to analyze. For the record, Corrente’s crew consists of umpire Carl Paganelli and back judge Perry Paganelli – the first brothers ever to work a Super Bowl together, according to SuperBowl.com – along with head linesman George Hayward, line judge Ron Marinucci, field judge Jim Saracino, side judge John Parry, and replay assistant Mark Burns. 

What is Corrente’s role? Specifically, the referee in any game has jurisdiction over time, down and distance, announcing all penalties, counting the number of offensive players, signaling the back judge as to when to start the 25-second clock, and which receivers are eligible. Generally, he’s the overseer and the arbiter of all penalty disputes between crews – he’s the traffic cop. 

This will be Corrente’s first Super Bowl as a referee, though he was the alternate in Super Bowl XL. A veteran of the Big West and Western Athletic Conferences, the La Mirada, California resident officiated Alamo, Aloha and Rose Bowls before becoming an NFL back judge in 1995. At the beginning of the 1998 season, he was promoted to referee. Corrente has worked three postseason games, including the 2001 NFC Championship game between the Giants and Vikings. In the off-season, he teaches high school social sciences. 

In 2006, Corrente’s crew called more penalties than any other – 242 for 1,590 yards. The crew led the NFL in defensive holding (15) and was on the high side of just about every other common call. 

As for the two teams playing, the Bears and Colts were just about even in false starts (Chicago’s 22 to Indy’s 23), but the Bears were flagged for holding almost twice as often – 23 to 11. (Chicago opponents were also flagged for holding twice as often as Indianapolis opponents, so this could have more to do with the referees and less with the two teams themselves.) Other notable discrepancies: Chicago racked up seven more defensive offside calls (18-11), and neither team had many calls for defensive pass interference (Colts 4, Bears 2). Each team had three of the ever-nebulous illegal contact calls, and four roughing the passer penalties. Chicago totaled 133 penalties – fourth-most in the league behind the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals and Rams. Indianapolis’ 95 flags ranked seventh-fewest in the NFL. 

Bears games are messy affairs in general, as evidenced by the fact that teams playing them were penalized far more then any other – 154 to the 98 calls against teams playing the Colts. Again, this could be related to the teams themselves, or to the specific refs involved. Chicago’s defense precipitated a league-leading 31 false starts, one more than Minnesota’s. Surprisingly, Indy’s air attack caused only four defensive pass interference penalties and five illegal contact calls, a fact with which Colts team president Bill Polian is no doubt very familiar.

The final question regarding the officiating in this Super Bowl is how the crew will react, and how they may be asked to react, after the controversy surrounding Super Bowl XL. Bill Leavy’s crew was raked over the coals by the media right after the game, and the standard Mike Pereira damage control on the NFL Network’s Official Review show did little good outside of the Pittsburgh area. It took a surprising amount of time for the furor to die down. Will this crew ignore last year’s fallout and call ‘em as they see ‘em (which means calling them more often than usual) or will the common postseason refrain of “Let them play!” rule the day? 

Once again, keep your eye on the third team when Super Sunday rolls around.

Post by Doug Farrar

Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called.

New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay

McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.

The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.

Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.

McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.

New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo

One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.

Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.

Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.

Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.

The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.

Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.

Post by Doug Farrar

Yesterday, we looked at what the Football Outsiders game charting project said about which defensive players on Chicago and New Orleans are most often in coverage against different types of receivers. Read that for an intro to the idea and all the standard explanations and caveats.
Today, Indianapolis and New England.

Indianapolis Colts

vs. #1 WR

• 25-N.Harper 31%
• 42-J.David 29%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 10%
• 26-K.Hayden 8%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• Other 13%

vs. #2 WR

• 42-J.David 30%
• 25-N.Harper 26%
• 26-K.Hayden 7%
• 28-M.Jackson 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
• Other 22%

Wowie zowie. That's some pretty evenly split Tampa-2 action right there. But here's something interesting: Nick Harper has a 37% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 57% stop rate against #2 WR. Jason David has a 56% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 38% stop rate against #2 WR. A look at which receivers counted as #1 or #2 backs up something we learned from the 2005 charting data: David generally plays things closer, so he stops more plays but gives up larger gains when he gets beat. The receivers who had success against Harper were mainly possession-style guys: Reggie Williams, Andre Johnson, Eric Moulds. (Terrell Owens was an exception, he got Harper deep a couple of times.) The receivers who had success against David were mainly speed guys: Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Terry Glenn, Drew Bennett. (Yes, Drew Bennett is a speed guy. He's "deceptively" speedy, as we all know.)

I guess Reche Caldwell is the #1 WR and the speed guy for the Patriots, so the Patriots may want to have Caldwell on David's side and Jabar Gaffney on Harper's side.

vs. Other WR

• 25-N.Harper 24%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 20%
• 42-J.David 16%
• 58-G.Brackett 10%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 59-C.June 6%
• Other 18%

The Colts have passes to "Other WR" come up as Uncovered or Hole in Zone twice as often as their Tampa-2 brethren up north in Illinois. I would have to check, but I would guess that the Colts are the only team where the nickel back doesn't even come up as covering "Other WR" on at least 5% of passes. Then again, Kelvin Hayden isn't always the nickel back -- the Colts also use safety Marlin Jackson as nickel back, especially in likely run situations.

vs. TE

• 58-G.Brackett 23%
• 25-N.Harper 14%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 14%
• 59-C.June 9%
• 42-J.David 6%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• 51-G.Gardner 5%
• Other 13%

The other difference between the Chicago Tampa-2 and the Indy Tampa-2: Gary Brackett is in that middle zone defending the tight end seam routes more often than Brian Urlacher is.

New England Patriots

vs. #1 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 25%
• 27-E.Hobbs 25%
• 30-C.Scott 14%
• 54-T.Bruschi 6%
• 80-T.Brown 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 21%

That Troy Brown number is basically all against Green Bay; the Pats will only use Brown as a slot cornerback -- he knows that position best thanks to his role in the offense -- so the Packers lined Donald Driver up in the slot to take advantage.

vs. #2 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 27%
• 30-C.Scott 17%
• 27-E.Hobbs 16%
• 26-E.Wilson 9%
• 25-A.Hawkins 7%
• 32-H.Poteat 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
• Other 14%

Hank Poteat keeps two apartments: one on Long Island, one in Foxboro.

vs. Other WR

• 22-A.Samuel 28%
• 30-C.Scott 20%
• 27-E.Hobbs 17%
• 37-R.Harrison 6%
• 36-J.Sanders 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 20%

Yes, that's correct. We have Asante Samuel listed as the most common defender against all three types of wide receivers. Hint to Peyton Manning: When Ellis Hobbs or Chad Scott is on Marvin Harrison, throw it to him. (I don't think Peyton needs my hints, actually.)

vs. TE

• 50-M.Vrabel 20%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 18%
• 54-T.Bruschi 14%
• 37-R.Harrison 11%
• 27-E.Hobbs 7%
• 55-J.Seau 6%
• Other 24%

This probably has no bearing on Dallas Clark. Let's be honest, if Dallas Clark is a tight end, I'm a turnip. But Mike Vrabel has definitely lost something in pass coverage this season, so Ben Utecht could take advantage of that.

Post by Aaron Schatz

We all know that the Colts defense has turned things around so dramatically in the playoffs. But I'm not sure people understand what a historical outlier the Colts would be if they actually beat the Patriots this Sunday and make Super Bowl XLI. They would have the worst regular season defense to ever make the Super Bowl -- certainly since 1978, the year the NFL expanded to a 16-game season and liberalized passing rules to increase offense. The Saints would also end up as one of the worst defenses to ever make the Super Bowl, although not quite to same degree.

Check out where the 2006 Colts and Saints stand in the following categories. Teams that actually won the Super Bowl are in italics.

Most regular season points allowed by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 360
• 1983 Raiders, 338
• 1983 Redskins, 332
• 1988 Bengals, 329
• 1995 Steelers, 327
• 1986 Broncos, 327
• 1999 Titans, 324
• 2006 Saints, 322
• 1991 Bills, 318

Most regular season rushing yards per carry allowed for conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 5.3
• 2006 Saints, 4.9
• 1997 Broncos, 4.7
• 1984 Dolphins, 4.7
• 1982 Dolphins, 4.4
• 1986 Broncos, 4.4
• 1987 Broncos, 4.4
• 2004 Eagles, 4.3
• 2001 Patriots, 4.3

Highest completion percentage allowed during regular season by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 64.3%
• 1994 Chargers, 62.9%
• 2004 Eagles, 60.7%
• 2002 Raiders, 60.7%
• 1993 Cowboys, 60.2%
• 1995 Steelers, 59.1%
• 1992 Bills, 58.7%
• 2004 Patriots, 58.6%
• 2001 Rams, 58.0%
• 2005 Seahawks, 58.0%

The Saints allowed a 56.3% completion percentage this season, so in this category, they would actually end up roughly average among conference champions.

Fewest regular season interceptions by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Saints, 11
• 1982 Redskins, 11 (strike year)
• 1990 Giants, 13
• 1993 Cowboys, 14
• 2005 Steelers, 15
• 2006 Colts, 15
• 2005 Seahawks, 16
• 2003 Panthers, 16
• 1999 Titans, 16
• 1986 Broncos, 18

In the Colts' defense, they faced only 414 pass attempts all year because they were so easy to run on, so their interception per pass attempt rate isn't quite so awful.

How about our advanced Football Outsiders stats?

Worst regular season defensive DVOA by conference champion (since 1997):

• 2006 Colts, 11.3%
• 2006 Saints, 3.6%
• 1998 Broncos, 0.4%
• 2004 Eagles, -2.2%
• 2005 Seahawks, -3.5%
• 1999 Titans, -4.6%
• 2001 Patriots, -6.3%
• 2002 Raiders, -6.4%

And finally, here's an important stat that measures both points scored and allowed, Pythagorean wins. For those unfamiliar, this takes points scored and allowed and projects an estimate of wins over a 16-game season. The team with the most Pythagorean wins has won the Super Bowl more often than the team with the most actual wins, although the team with the most Pythagorean wins this year is now out of the playoffs (Ravens, 12.7):

• 1979 Rams, 8.4
• 2003 Panthers, 8.6
• 1986 Broncos, 9.4
• 2006 Colts, 9.6
• 1980 Raiders, 9.6
• 1999 Titans, 9.8
• 1995 Steelers, 10.0
• 1994 Chargers, 10.0
• 1985 Patriots, 10.1
• 1988 49ers, 10.1
• 2006 Saints, 10.3

Just because something has never been done before doesn't mean that it can't be done in the future. But no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a defense this bad, much less won the thing. The Saints are a different issue, because their defense wasn't as bad as the Colts during the season, and the Bears' own defense has been having problems since the beginning of December. But as great as the Colts' defense has been over the last two weeks, I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why those two games are a better indicator than the 16 games that came before.

Postscript: I should note that the same issue exists with Peyton Manning. There's no reason to believe that his poor performance in the last two games is a better indicator of how he'll play next week than his fabulous performance in the first 16 games.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier