When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49 million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109 million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as low-cost and fungible.

The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project. These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.

One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.

Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.

Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle gave Hutchinson the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing salary cap, things would never be the same.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Minnesota Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19 League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 0 (the second straight season Hutchinson hasn’t been penalized)
Comments: You’ll get arguments, but most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some time adjusting in Minnesota, but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota line – check out at the Seattle line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’ front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st in Mid/Guard ALY.

Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers

Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot closer.
Games Started (Position) 15 of 16 (15 LG, San Diego Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1 Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding)
Comments: Perhaps the most coveted pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.

(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)

Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns

Contract: Seven years, $49.5 million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland, though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 5 (5 False Start)
Comments: Interesting note: While the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average. RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for that.

Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million guaranteed.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Washington Redskins)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1 Offensive Holding)
Comments: The Redskins were below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly major part. Think they’ll miss him?

Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys

Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LT, Arizona Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37)
Blown Blocks: 7
Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2 Offensive Holding)
Comments: It’s quite simple, really. If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings (some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.

Post by Doug Farrar

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.

So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.

Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.

Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)

My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.

Joe Horn

1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets

This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.

Eric Moulds

1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings

This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.

Keenan McCardell

X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals

Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.

So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.

Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.

What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.

Jamal Lewis

1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers

You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.

Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.

Drew Bledsoe

1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins

Dude, it's over.

Post by Aaron Schatz

I was talking to a friend the other day about the Giants and he brought up the questionable ratings given to Sinorice Moss in a popular video game franchise whose namesake is a particular commentator. I noted, rather astutely, that Moss should have been given a Hiding rating, since he didn't bother to show up for his first season in New York. While Jared Lorenzen actually disappeared for his entire rookie campaign on the Giants practice squad, the second-rounder was around but failed to make a difference on the Giants season. Some of the blame can be put on Moss' strained quadriceps, but Big Blue could have sorely used Moss to stretch out opposing defenses and create space for Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress to work underneath.

A couple of days later, I was talking to another friend (yes, I'm quite popular) about Chad Jackson, the Patriots' second round pick. I retold the Moss story and remarked that Jackson should have also received a Hiding rating -- the Patriots were signing street free agents and Reche Caldwell was their number one wideout most of the year and Jackson still didn't get any burn! "Must have been a bad crop of wide receivers", my friend remarked. That got me to thinking -- was it a bad crop? Historically bad, or just unlucky bad? Or, alternately, do fans just expect too much of rookie wide receivers? The easiest way to find out is to take a look back at wide receivers

I crunched the numbers on the last ten years of wide receivers. Since I was talking about Moss and Jackson, I looked at second-round picks initially, but I spread it out to third and fourth-rounders to try and gain a broader sense of performance. I didn't include first-rounders because more is naturally expected of them.

Compared to other classes, the second, third, and fourth-rounders of 2006 were atrocious. The seventeen wide receivers selected averaged fewer than nine catches and 117 yards each for the season; the average year's average receiver catches fifteen balls and gains over 200 yards. The only other group that was in 2006's territory was even worse: the "class" of 1997.

1997's first round wide receiver crop may go down as one of the all-time worst hauls from a position in a draft, ever. Although it's outside the boundaries of our study, it's worth pointing out that this round saw Ike Hilliard, Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony, and Rae Carruth come off the board. It's not a good sign when your career consists almost solely of three entirely torn ACLs and you are still better off than someone else in your pool. The Florida pair of Hilliard and Anthony did not live up to their relative expectations. As you will see, their performance still blew away the receivers to come.

While 1996 saw Amani Toomer, Muhsin Muhammad, and Bobby Engram go in the second round, and 1998 gave out useful parts like Germane Crowell, Mickael Ricks and Jerome Pathon, 1997's second round offered no redeeming value whatsoever. Kevin Lockett, a college star at Kansas State, wasn't an NFL-caliber receiver. The fact that he lasted seven years in the NFL makes him the star of the group. Will Blackwell, drafted by the usually-reliable Steelers, made Troy Edwards' career in the black and gold look good. The third member of the class was Joey Kent, who had all of thirteen career NFL catches. Hooray.

The third round saw only one wide receiver get drafted: Dedric Ward, who went to the Jets. Ward was actually a useful receiver for a single season, which probably makes him the second-most valuable receiver of the entire group, after Hilliard, until you take a look at the fourth round.

The fourth round, well, it was surprising. It can bring good players into the league -- '96's fourth round brought Charlie Jones into the league, while '98 saw Tim Dwight, Donald Hayes, and Az-Zahir Hakim into pro football. These guys don't generally get much playing time, as fourth-rounders only average eight catches per player their rookie year (that is, if they even make it at all). Even so, '97's performance was below average; it's receivers only caught five passes each. Those receivers? A mix of good and bad. Macey Brooks didn't play until his third season, and was done in the league after his fourth. Keith Poole was developing into a solid receiver with 42 catches in his third year, but he was out of the league by 2002. Albert Connell also had a big third year, and saw himself joining Poole on the unemployment line in '02.

On the other hand, Marcus Robinson's enjoyed a solid professional career, with a big season his sophomore year and a few good weeks in 2003. He'll collect a pension. The other guy to go in Round 4? Derrick Mason, who did nothing until the fourth year of his career but hasn't let up since. Mason had 47 catches through his first three years.

After 1997's season finished, this group of receivers would have been hailed as an awful, awful crop of talent. Carruth had 45 catches, Anthony 33, and after that, Ward had 18 That's abysmal, even for a set of rookies. Furthermore, the guys who had the best NFL careers, Mason, Hilliard (who was injured and only played two games his rookie year) and Robinson, all didn't produce their rookie year. It brings up another question to look at: are the guys having big rookie seasons the ones who develop into future stars?

Going round-by-round, here are the biggest performances and what they boded for the future, as well as the biggest stars and how they did their rookie campaigns:

Second Round: Anquan Boldin's rookie-record 101 catches lap the field; Kevin Johnson's 66 are a runner-up, and he had the benefit of being the only threat on an expansion team that was always losing. Pathon's 58 catches are third, Chris Chambers' 48 fourth, and Antwaan Randle El and Keary Colbert are tied for fifth with 47.

That's an uneven group of receivers. Boldin's a stud. Johnson had a couple more big years but fell out of favor in Cleveland and his career never recovered; he's out of football. Pathon was perpetually expected to break out and never did. Chambers is perceived, at least, as a stud, while his performance has yet to match up. Randle El is yet to match his rookie numbers, and Colbert's lost his spot and on his way out in Carolina. Two (one for Boldin and a half each for Chambers and Randle El) isn't really a strong prediction rate.

The biggest stars from the timeframe that went in the second round would probably be Boldin, Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson, Deion Branch, and Muhsin Muhammad. Toomer had one catch his rookie year; Johnson, Branch, and Muhammad were all around or above the league average for second round wide receivers, but none of them stood out as future stars the way that Boldin did.

Third Round: The best year belongs to Darrell Jackson, whose 53 catches were 16 more than second-place Stepfret Williams. That's right -- the guy whose poster Patrick Crayton had on his wall. Number three is Terrell Owens. Fourth in performance their rookie year was Marvin Minnis, and fifth was friend of the law Chris Henry. Nate Burleson and Laveranues Coles also make appearances in the Top 10.

Maybe Williams did nothing, and Minnis suffered multiple injuries that forced him out of football. Jackson and Owens have had excellent careers, and Burleson, Henry, and Coles aren't doing poorly for themselves either. Stats seem to be a slightly better predictor for this round.

A top five based on career value would include Owens, Jackson, Coles, Steve Smith (10 catches his rookie year), and Hines Ward (15). A better group than the second-rounders, certainly.

Fourth Round: Again, someone steps out from the pack; it's the aforementioned Charlie Jones, who caught 41 passes for the '96 Chargers. He had a similar year in '98, but was out of football after '99. This group's top five finally sees some 2006 guys show up, with Demetrius Williams second in catches with 22, and Brandon Marshall fifth. Hakim is fourth, and Titans receiver Roydell Williams third. The jury is still out on three of these guys; Hakim benefited from being in the right place at the right time, and hasn't done much since he left said spot.

The best fourth rounders from the time period don't compare to the other rounds. Mason stands out, and there are plenty of guys who have had varying degrees of success, but pick four from Robinson, Hakim, Ernest Wilford, Brandon Lloyd, Jerricho Cotchery, Tim Dwight, Hayes, Justin McCareins, and Brandon Stokley and you'll be picking four guys who haven't really developed into anything beyond solid complementary receivers.

So, then, is there hope for the 2006 crop? I'd say so. It's not unprecedented for guys like Moss or Jackson to take big leaps forward as they learn more of the playbook and get more NFL game time in their sophomore season. The land of guys with five-catch rookie seasons, though, is littered with a lot more failures than the stratospheric heights reached by Boldin and Darrell Jackson. If you're a Giants fan (or administrator), hope Moss will get better, but don't depend on it; in the Patriots' case, hope that Bill Belichick's faith in Florida Gators works out slightly better than his previous obsession with guys from LSU.

post by Bill Barnwell

OK, so I was just charting the Week 4 game between Baltimore and San Diego, one of the games which had fallen through the cracks in the game charting project. This one is famous as the game where Martyball died, and it really is ridiculous to watch the Chargers line up in a 2-TE I formation on second-and-18.

But that's not the strangest part of the offensive game plan. You know that play where the wide receiver motions in tight, then comes around for a fake end-around after the QB has handed the ball to the running back? In the third quarter, the Chargers ran that on THREE STRAIGHT PLAYS. Then they ran it again two plays later. Then, on the next series, they ran it two more times. That's six times in the space of roughly ten offensive snaps.

The point of this play is to set up the actual end-around later. So did the Chargers ever run an actual end-around?  Nope.  Eric Parker just keeps running around behind the quarterback, not blocking anyone, with the Ravens completely ignoring him.

Good going on those calls, there, Chargers.

Post by Aaron Schatz
 

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Much is being made of the matchup on Saturday between Jon Ogden and Dwight Freeney, but this is not the first time these two players have faced off. For the folks who read us on FOX and haven't been reading Football Outsiders for years, let me point out two articles where Michael David Smith broke down the last two meetings of these players:

• Ogden-Freeney I
• Ogden-Freeney II

Post by Aaron Schatz
 

Last week we looked at our game charting data for defensive backs from the wild card games. I figured it was a good idea to check out the top two seeds in each conference, since we left them out last week.

The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:

• Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
• Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.

All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.

Baltimore

I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.

McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.

As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.

Chicago

The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender, and only 48 with Vasher as the main defender. We've charted more passes at Tillman than any other defender in the league, and while you might think this is because some teams have incomplete data this year, Tillman was second behind Ike Taylor in 2005, and Vasher was way behind Tillman last year as well.

Ricky Manning comes out with a lower stop rate and more yards allowed per pass (46%, 7.7). Also, he's a ####.

Like I said, linebacker numbers aren't quite as trustworthy as cornerback numbers. But Lance Briggs has a 62% stop rate, second behind Zach Thomas, and allows 4.6 yards per pass, second behind Keith Bulluck. He was near the top in both categories last year too. Briggs is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

New Orleans

OK, this one is really strange. When I first looked at charting data, Fred Thomas came out as one of the top guys in the league. Then he got injured, and when he came back he was getting super-toasted by everybody he tried to cover. Now his numbers are worse than those for both Mike McKenzie and the other cornerback in New Orleans, who I bet you can't even name.

Even weirder is the split between New Orleans before and after the bye week, which is roughly when Thomas was injured.

Weeks 1-6
Mike McKenzie: 25 charted psses, 36% stop rate, 10.2 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 39 charted passes, 67% stop rate, 3.3 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 21 charted passes, 48% stop rate, 6.3 yards per pass.

Weeks 8-15
Mike McKenzie: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 36 charted passes, 33% stop rate, 14.9 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.

"Other Guy" is eight-year veteran Jason Craft. Yes, his numbers from Weeks 8-15, based on the data collected as of today, are the exact same as McKenzie, and both are far better than they were before the bye week, and Thomas is far, far worse. Honestly, I have no idea what the heck is going on here. Craft's charting numbers were horrific in 2005. In 2006, based on data so far, he's tied with Pac-Man Jones for the best stop rate among all cornerbacks (65% for the whole year).

San Diego

This one is pretty interesting, especially since the secondary was supposed to be the weakness of the Chargers. Drayton Florence has one of the best stop rates in the league, 63%, and Quentin Jammer's stop rate is just 47%. But they allow roughly the same yards per pass (6.1 for Florence, 6.5 for Jammer), because Florence allows double the yards after catch.

Nickel cornerback Antonio Cromartie also has a 63% stop rate. He's allowed 8.4 yards per pass, which doesn't look good until you see that the average pass we've charted against him is 20.3 yards in the air. That's the highest of any cornerback with at least 30 charted passes by a good THREE YARDS. (Fred Thomas, by the way, is second. He really has been super torch-o-licious over the second half of the year.)

Donnie Edwards, like Lance Briggs, is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

Israel Pikholz: The Pittsburgh Steelers broadcasters get all excited whenever Hines Ward scores or makes a first down, saying things like "No one smells the goal line like Hines" or "No one knows the sticks like Hines." How well does Hines really rank?  Is he particularly good at that particular skill or is this just local hype?

Aaron Schatz: This year, at least, the answer is local hype. I went and looked at every wide receiver and tight end this year, with a minimum of 40 passes for wide receivers and 20 for tight ends, to figure out who had the highest percentage of their catches/passes as first downs or touchdowns.

First of all, the league averages:

• 55% of tight end catches and 34% of all passes to tight ends turn into first downs or touchdowns.
• 67% of wide receiver catches and 38% of all passes to wide receivers turn into first downs or touchdowns.

Hines Ward this year has first downs or touchdowns on 67% of his catches and 40% of all passes. Basically average. Of course, these numbers are 2006 only, and Ward, when he was healthy, was having an off year -- mostly because his quarterback is having an off year.  In 2005, Ward had a first down or touchdown on 45% of catches and 75% of passes -- better, but still not the best in the league.

Ironically, while Ward is not at the top of the league this year, both Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington are. For example, here are the leaders in first downs per catch (including touchdowns):

• Devery Henderson, NO: 89%
• Reggie Wayne, IND: 87%
• Santonio Holmes, PIT: 84%
• Eddie Kennison, KC: 83%
• Donte' Stallworth, PHI: 82%
• Nate Washington, PIT: 81%
• Bryant Johnson, ARI: 81%

Bryant Johnson has really had a good year after being god awful his first three seasons.

Now of course, not all passes are caught by the receiver. Here are the leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Patrick Crayton, DAL: 59%
• Henderson, NO: 58%
• Wayne, IND: 53%
• Eric Parker, SD: 52%
• D.J. Hackett, SEA: 50%
• Marvin Harrison, IND: 50%

Crayton, Henderson, and Hackett are playing very well but they are just over the 40 pass minimum, so Wayne, Harrison, and Eric "The Most Underappreciated Wide Receiver in Football" Parker are the real leaders here. Eric Parker is a catch machine. People don't realize how good he is because he never catches a touchdown, but he never catches a touchdown because San Diego has two of the best red zone weapons in the league, LT and Antonio Gates.

Most of the names at the bottom of the league make sense, except one. Here are the worst players in first downs per catch:

• Peerless Price, BUF: 37%
• Dennis Northcutt, CLE: 40%
• Wes Welker, MIA: 47%
• Drew Carter, CAR: 48%
• Reggie "Dance Machine" Williams, JAC: 50%

A lot of people think of Wes Welker as a possession guy because he comes in on third downs and he's, um, suntan challenged. He's definitely Joey Harrington's checkdown target on first and second downs, but on third downs he's a big-play speed demon.

The worst players in first downs per intended pass:

• Northcutt, CLE: 19%
• Price, BUF: 23%
• Chris Chambers, MIA: 25%
• Brandon Lloyd, WAS: 25%
• Michael Jenkins, ATL: 26%
• Carter, CAR: 26%

Chris Chambers is a talented athlete and an incredibly overrated wide receiver. Bill Barnwell wrote about this a couple weeks ago.

As long as I'm running the numbers, I might as well hit the tight ends.  Here are your leaders in first down per catch:

• Desmond Clark, CHI: 77%
• Tony Gonzalez, KC: 75%
• Dan Campbell, DET: 74%
• Dallas Clark, IND: 73%
• Alge Crumpler, ATL: 71%
• Courtney Anderson, OAK: 71%
• Tony Scheffler, DEN: 70%

It's nice that Tony Scheffler gets to the sticks when he catches the ball, since he doesn't catch the ball very often. He's caught just 38% of intended passes this year, which is just abysmal for a tight end.

The leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Gonzalez, KC: 54%
• Campbell, DET: 50%
• Bryan Fletcher, IND: 45%
• Daniel Wilcox, BAL: 44%
• Clark, CHI: 44%
• Antonio Gates, SD: 42%
• Owen Daniels, HOU: 42%

And your bottom of the barrel tight ends.  First, first downs per catch:

• Anthony Becht, TB: 27%
• Steve Heiden, CLE: 30%
• Adam Bergen, ARI: 33%
• Anthony Fasano, DAL: 33%
• Alex Smith is not a quarterback, TB: 35%

There is a big gap between those five and the rest of the tight ends, who are all above 44%.  The worst tight ends in first downs per intended pass:

• Jerramy Stevens should shut up, SEA: 18%
• Becht, TB: 20%
• Fasano, DAL: 20%
• Bergen, ARI: 21%
• The lost rookie season of Vernon Davis, SF: 21%
• Smith, TB: 22%

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Bengals and Ravens are playing in tonight's NFL Network game (now available to 3% of American cable subscribers!). It just so happens that last night, while filling holes in our game charting data, I did the first half of the first Bengals-Ravens game, back in Week 9. I thought I would share some notes on things to look for tonight.

Samari Rolle was usually in man coverage on Chad Johnson and was giving him a cushion larger than Terrell Owens' ego. I wonder if this has anything to do with that early charting data, which indicated that Rolle has been giving up a ton of huge plays this season. Do the coaches see that he's declined, and move him back so he won't get beat deep? Is he actually playing zone, but he's just really bad at it? It's always hard to tell without knowing what the actual play calls are.

The Bengals like to run a defensive play where they start by rushing four, but after two steps, right defensive tackle John Thornton will drop into coverage. I noticed this play three times; the Ravens caught two of those three passes, each for nine yards. One of them was a great example of two teams thinking entirely different things. Third-and-6, and the Bengals rush three after Thornton has dropped off. The Ravens are in an empty backfield set but leave both tight ends back to block in max protect, so you have three rushing seven. Somehow, even though there are eight defenders in zone coverage and only three receivers, Steve McNair finds Michael Clayton standing right in front of linebacker Andre Frazier for a first down.

The Bengals like to use tight end Reggie Kelly as a fullback. Sometimes he's a straight-out fullback. Other times he's in a position that I guess is supposed to be H-back, but he's farther back from the offensive line than other H-backs I've seen. In the charting data, I've been marking that as offset I-formation. I can't tell if it is supposed to be two-TE or not. These are the things that try the souls of game charters.

This is the last game where Carson Palmer's mechanics still seem to be a little off because of the knee surgery. He sailed some passes badly by throwing slightly too soon and lifting his foot when he felt pass pressure. Chad Johnson made a leaping catch on one of them for a 15-yard gain. From Week 10 on, Palmer's been back to his fabulous 2005 self.

Rudi Johnson's blitz pickup in this game was terrible, just awful. He led directly to one sack and one play where Bart Scott whacked Palmer big time. Scott is awesome, he was everywhere in this game. He should get some Defensive Player of the Year talk, as should Adalius Thomas.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"The Jets-Texans announcers must be the CBS "R"-Team. I am pretty sure the next broadcast team they'd send out would be Jeff Probst and the clock from 60 Minutes".

"Michael Vick may not be able to pass, and may be a 'coach killer,' but boy does he have moves."

"Baltimore's second touchdown drive was something Bronko Nagurski would have enjoyed: 8 plays, 47 yards, and six of the plays were essentially runs up the middle."

"Drew Brees just threw a 50-yard, half-ending Hail Mary TD. With triple coverage, the Falcons made a lame attempt at batting down the ball. The primary coverage was DeAngelo Hall, who was in such poor body position he wasn’t able to do any defending. The Falcons took a timeout right before the play began and Daryl Johnson noted, 'they don't get to take those into the locker room with them, so you better use them if you are unsure of what to do. The worst thing would be to get burned on the last play here, so it's best to take the timeout and be sure.' Guess they weren't that sure."

"Boredom is Texans-Jets. Long drive, field goal. Long drive, punt. Rinse, repeat."

"Ben Roethlisberger is getting heat on just about every play, and the distressing thing is how much of the pressure is unblocked. The only time this season I've seen a quarterback under siege to this extent was when Andrew Walter got sacked nine times by the Seahawks a few Monday nights ago. Yes, I just compared the offense of the defending Super Bowl champs to the Oakland Raiders."

"There's a really good chance that neither Edgerrin James nor Shaun Alexander will run for 100 yards in a single game this season. Between them, they did so 20 times in 2005."

"Is anyone really surprised by Edge, though? The guy never saw an eight-man front in his life, and then he moved to a team with an absolutely horrid offensive line. I'd have to say he is who I thought he was."

"It's time for the general populace to realize how good this Oakland defense really is. In the first half, the Chargers - who are currently ranked second in the NFL in offensive DVOA - have gained 55 total yards, have three first downs, are 0 for 4 in third-down conversions, and have had the ball for a whopping eight minutes and twenty-three seconds."

"Yeah, the Raiders defense is great, but their offense handed the Chargers the ball on the 12-yard line and couldn't execute a drive longer than four plays in the second half. The defense can't hold on forever."

"If any of the subjective power ranking writers drop the Bears because they lost, they are complete and total idiots. They just lost by four points on the road against one of the top five or six teams in the league. This does nothing -- nothing -- to prove that the Bears can't win against the best team the AFC has to offer on a neutral field in February.

"Guess who's on my fantasy bench this week? Joseph Addai. Time to trade someone for a receiver."

"The Eagles can blame a lot on the McNabb injury and bad luck, but there is no excuse for the complete and total disintegration of their run defense over the past few weeks. I know they are in nickel a lot tonight, but last time I checked you weren't supposed to stop tackling people just because you had one less linebacker on the field."

Check out more in this week's FO Audibles at the Line.

post by Mike Tanier

Mactbone: My impression is that Rex Grossman performs well when the team is up and plays poorly when the Bears are losing. I'm curious if his DVOA/DPAR is higher when the Bears are already up by 7/14 and lower when they're down 7/14 points. Of course, he could just play well when he has a short field and poorly when he actually has to put a drive together. Just trying to get a handle on the reason the Bears will win or lose in the playoffs.

Aaron Schatz: Thanks for the excellent question, Mactbone. It turns out that you are absolutely correct. When I measure scoring gap, I generally use 8 points as the guideline, since that's the maximum score you can get on just one drive. Here are Grossman's stats when the Bears are up by 9+ points, losing by 9+ points, or within 8 points either way.

Lose >8: -17.0 DPAR, -70.7% DVOA, 4.3 ypa, 4 INT
Within 8: 1.8 DPAR, -10.6% DVOA, 5.9 ypa, 7 INT
Win >8: 39.3 DPAR, 82.2% DVOA, 9.4 ypa, 0 INT

Wow, that would concern me if I was a Bears fan. Evil Rex seems to come out whenever the Bears are losing, and they're more likely to fall behind a good team they'll meet in the playoffs than they are to fall behind some team like Detroit.

How does this compare to other quarterbacks? I ran two other random guys with somewhat similar total value this year:

Here's Tom Brady:

Lose >8: 10.2 DPAR, 22.4% DVOA, 5.5 ypa, 0 INT
Within 8: 15.4 DPAR, 5.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 8 INT
Win >8: 18.5 DPAR, 36.3% DVOA, 6.1 ypa, 1 INT

Brady seems to play looser in close games -- more yards, more turnovers -- but better overall when he either is coming back from behind or has a nice lead. Here's Steve McNair:

Lose >8: -0.2 DPAR, -14.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 3 INT
Within 8: 11.8 DPAR, 2.0% DVOA, 5.7 ypa, 5 INT
Win >8: 5.0 DPAR, 2.8% DVOA, 5.0 ypa, 1 INT

I have no idea if this is actually a real trend that represents the Chicago offensive style, or Grossman himself, or if it is just random chance. One of the projects I hope to do for next year's book is a study of which "splits" represent actual skills and which are basically just random from year to year.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Jason Ford: I'm an avid Browns fan (woe is me) and I've been listening to the critics about Charlie Frye for the better part of the season. In Ned Macey's Every Given Sunday article this week, he bashes Frye and says the Browns should look into a trade for someone like Leftwich next season. The guy has less than a full season worth of starts... Can you run some similarity scores for Frye?

Aaron Schatz: This is a bit of a follow-up to Ned Macey's post last week about Frye and the history of quarterbacks who played below replacement level in their first two seasons. I took Frye's numbers through 10 games, pro-rated them for a whole season, and then compared his first two years to those of other quarterbacks since 1978.

First, here are the top ten similar seasons considering 2006 only:

1. Quincy Carter, 2003 Cowboys
2. Brett Favre, 1993 Packers
3. Drew Brees, 2002 Chargers
4. Tim Couch, 2001 Browns
5. Jim Zorn, 1978 Seahawks
6. Jake Plummer, 1998 Cardinals
7. Brett Favre, 1992 Packers
8. Rick Mirer, 1993 Seahawks
9. David Carr, 2004 Texans
10. Joey Harrington, 2004 Lions

Yes, Brett Favre appears twice on this list, but as you'll see in a second, he's not really that comparable to Frye. Frye is having a weird season, with a good completion percentage (62.5%) but lousy average yards per attempt (6.2). The Browns are throwing a ton of short passes. Out of these 10 quarterbacks, the only one with a higher completion percentage is Favre (1992), and the only one with fewer yards per attempt is Mirer. I also don't know if people realize how much Frye runs. He's on pace for 275 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Here's the top ten after we consider two seasons:

1. Quincy Carter, 2002-3 Cowboys
2. Tim Couch, 2000-1 Browns
3. Shaun King, 1999-2000 Bucs
4. Drew Brees, 2001-2 Chargers
5. Jim Everett, 1986-7 Rams
6. Jon Kitna, 1998-9 Seahawks
7. Randy Wright, 1985-6 Packers
8. Josh McCown, 2003-4 Cardinals
9. Aaron Brooks, 2000-1 Saints
10. David Carr, 2003-4 Texans

That list isn't quite so good, although Everett had a useful career and of course Drew Brees is still Drew Brees. Why isn't Frye comparable to Favre anymore? Because Favre's 1992 was nothing like Frye's 2005 -- actually, even though it shows up as similar to Frye's current season, Favre was much, much better in 1992:

• Favre 1992: 64.1 Comp. Pct., 6.9 ypa, 18 TD, 13 INT
• Favre 1993: 60.9 Comp. Pct., 6.3 ypa, 19 TD, 24 INT
• Frye 2006: 62.5 Comp. Pct., 6.2 ypa, 14 TD, 19 INT (pro-rated)

Frye is a quarterback who was below average in his first two seasons as a starter. Favre is a quarterback who was good in his first season as a starter, despite throwing a lot of shorter passes, and then slumped a bit in his second season.

I think the similarity scores say the same thing as Ned's analysis from last week -- Frye isn't hopeless, but he certainly doesn't look as promising as he did three months ago.

Post by Aaron Schatz