The Patriots have traded for Randy Moss, giving Tom Brady by far the best receiver he has ever had and thereby guaranteeing the Patriots another Super Bowl. That will be the conventional wisdom. The only red flag anyone will bring up is Moss' character concerns and whether he can fit into the team-first approach in New England. Maybe that is an issue (it certainly was not for Corey Dillon), but a bigger problem could be that Moss is simply no longer a star player.

Similarity scores are a tool used to compare people to other players who posted similar numbers over a given time period. A quick glance at Moss’ three-year similarity profile is very alarming. (Only yards are listed, but similarity scores also compare catches, touchdowns, and average yards per catch.)

Name                         Years             Yards Yr 1-3         Age +1         G+1 Rec +1 Yds+1
Randy Moss             2004-06          767, 1005, 553     30
Drew Pearson         1978-80          714, 1026, 568     30             16     38     614
Sam McCullum         1979-81         739, 874, 567       30             11*   21*    233*
James Jett                 1997-99         804, 882, 552       30             11     20     356
Freddie Solomon     1980-82         658, 969, 574*     30             13     31     662
Ernie Jones             1990-92           724, 957, 559       29             10     5       56
Nat Moore                 1978-80         645, 840, 564        30             13     26     452
Andre Rison             1996-98         593, 1092, 542      32             15     21     218
Webster Slaughter 1990-92          847, 906, 486        29             14     77     904
Antonio Freeman     2000-02         912, 818, 600       31             15     14     141
Ernest Givins            1992-94          787, 887, 521       31              9      29    280
Earnest Gray             1982-84          757*, 1139, 529  28              5        3     22

(*Strike-adjusted) 

The names on the left are acceptable if not overly impressive. More than half had over 7,000 receiving yards in their careers. The numbers on the right represent the next season after the similar three-year stretch. Only one receiver had more than 700 yards. Some of these guys had another good season or two in them, but nobody hit 1,000 yards again.

Moss is a different animal because his peak was higher even than that of Rison or Pearson. The other assumption is that Oakland was too dysfunctional and/or Moss just did not care when he was there. Of course, both Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry had success there the past two seasons. Gabriel, of course, came to the Patriots a season ago and struggled to get consistent playing time. Curry was actually the leading receiver on the Raiders last season.

Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter, and Kerry Collins put together, but this is not Randy Moss circa 2002. Moss averaged a whopping 3.3 catches per game last season, and the once-dominant red zone threat scored just three touchdowns. He caught only 43% of the passes intended for him.

The truth is that Moss is 30 years old, and he always relied heavily on his speed to get open. He is not the physical receiver that Terrell Owens is or the master route-runner that Marvin Harrison is. As such, he is not likely to age gracefully. Moss always played better on the fast track of the Metrodome, so it is good news that the Patriots have gotten rid of their grass field.

Is Randy Moss an upgrade for the Patriots? Certainly, considering Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell were their second and third receivers. But, I think it is a little wishful thinking to see Moss as a better player than Deion Branch at this point in his career. Branch also would have been a better fit opposite Donte Stallworth than the supposed deep threat in Moss. Only once in the last six years has Moss caught 60% of the passes intended for him, a total Branch hit three times in four years with the Patriots.

Still, the Patriots have to be commended for playing this one right. They unloaded Branch at the height of his value for a first-round pick and now steal Moss away for a fourth-round pick. His reputation alone should help open up the running game and get Stallworth one-on-one opportunities. Moss could easily get his 900 yards, 65 catches, and eight touchdowns, and the Patriots will be a better team. Just don't expect Moss to team with Brady to form some sort of Montana-Rice unstoppable duo.

Post by Ned Macey

Mount Ephraim, NJ -- Insurance adjuster Brad Anderson broke out in a cold sweat while surfing the Internet on Monday afternoon. He felt a tingling in his neck. He feared he was having a heart attack.

"I read on Pro Football Talk that the Eagles were going to trade for a Takeo Spikes," he said. "A linebacker. An actual starting linebacker. Suddenly, I saw spots in front of my eyes." Alertly, he took a glycerine tablet and called 9-1-1. When he arrived at the hospital, he found that he was just one of hundreds of Eagles fans hospitalized by the team's recent spurt of off-season activity. The problem has become so widespread that the Center for Disease Control had dubbed it SAOSSD: Surprisingly Active Off-Season Stress Disorder.

"I've never seen anything like this," said Dr. James Albright of the newly opened Free Agency Trauma Center at Einstein Medical Center. "Over the last two weeks, we've treated dozens of patients for shock and heart palpitations. But when the Spikes trade hit, our ER looked like a M*A*S*H unit. There were guys in green shirts everywhere, just kind of flailing around and twitching."

The outbreak began when the Eagles signed receiver Kevin Curtis two weeks ago. SAOSSD cases escalated when the team signed Montae Reagor. But the Spikes deal created a flashover situation. "It was too much, too soon," Albright explained. "In Washington, they are inoculated against this kind of off-season. But March in Philadelphia is usually the time to debate the merits of Jabar Gaffney or hail the return of Shawn Barber. The affect on Philly fans is like shoveling 35 inches of snow after a winter without physical exertion. It's potentially dangerous."

Dr. Sylvester Harczynski agrees. Harczynski owns a degree in Philadelphia Fan Psychology from Temple University, a degree he earned by listening to local sports talk radio until he was declared clinically insane (17.5 minutes). "The Eagles lulled their fans into a false sense of security by letting Jeff Garcia, Rod Hood, and Donte Stallworth walk, then replacing them with Bethel Johnson. Fans were ready to go about their early spring business: complaining about the Phillies and vilifying Donovan McNabb. But the Curtis, Reagor, and Spikes deals created a whiplash effect."

The effect can be seen all over the Philadelphia area. "I can't handle this. I can't handle this," Upper Darby bartender Joe Klein said while hyperventilating into a paper bag. "I mean, they needed receivers and defenders, and they signed receivers and defenders. It just doesn't make sense." Klein was treated at Einstein and released later in the day. "I don't know what came over me. I mean, I handled the Terrell Owens-Jevon Kearse off-season well. I guess my resistance was lowered by one too many Matt Schobel signings."

Albright warns that if you are an Eagles fan who is feeling the onset of SAOSSD, you should take steps to ward off an all-out attack. First, lie down. Second, avoid the Philadelphia Daily News at all costs. Finally, download old press conferences in which Andy Reid says "I'm happy with Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett as my wide receivers," or "Dhani Jones is doing a fine job at linebacker." Most of all, says Allbright, "don't try to be a hero. Don't read mock drafts or search the Internet for other trade rumors. Remember that other teams sign free agents all the time, and that it is a natural part of football."

Anderson did his best to heed Albright's advice, but SAOSSD is a pernicious illness. "It's no big deal, really," Anderson said while in the recover room. "A decent wide receiver. Another small defensive tackle. A good-but-often injured linebacker. It's not like they filled their need for a power back behind Brian Westbrook. Now if they drafter Brian Leonard … wow … a Rutgers guy … big all-purpose runner … that would be … ugh … uggggh," Anderson was quickly rushed to the emergency room and treated with exposure to 50 minutes of Mike McMahon highlights.

As free agency dies down, a lot of signings are a bit more under the radar, but one of them really drew my attention this week. The Seattle Seahawks signed 35-year-old tight end Marcus Pollard, formerly of the Colts and Lions. The contract terms were undisclosed, but we know there is some guaranteed money involved.

I know the Seahawks wanted to wash their hands of the Salty Senorita, Jerramy Stevens, and they lost out on the bidding for Daniel Graham. But seriously? This is their answer at tight end?

Pollard told Seattle reporters that he doesn't have the usual wear and tear of a 35-year-old football player. The main reason? He didn't play college football; like Antonio Gates, he was a power forward on the basketball team in college. That's less wear and tear? Last time I checked, power forwards did a good amount of ####ing to get those rebounds. It's not like being a running back, but it isn't ballet either.

Do you realize how many tight ends in NFL history had good seasons at age 35? Two. That's it. Shannon Sharpe and Wesley Walls. Here's the entire list -- the ENTIRE LIST -- of 35-year-old tight ends who caught at least five passes in a season since 1978, with catches, yards, and touchdowns:

• Shannon Sharpe, 2003 Broncos (62-770-8)
  
• Wesley Walls, 2001 Panthers (43, 452, 5)
• Jimmie Giles, 1989 Eagles (16, 225, 2)
• Bob Tucker, 1980 Vikings (15, 173, 1)
• Pete Metzelaars, 1995 Panthers (20, 171, 3)
• Russ Francis, 1988 Patriots (11, 161, 0)
• Ed West, 1996 Eagles (8, 91, 0)
• Mickey Shuler, 1991 Eagles (6, 91, 0)
• Don Warren, 1991 Redskins (5, 51, 0)
• Rodney Holman, 1995 Lions (5, 35, 0)

 

That's it, folks. In fact, I only have eight other 35-year-old tight ends in my database, and they were basically long snappers (Mike Bartrum, Dave Moore) or glorified extra tackles (Brian Kozlowski).

I would accept the signing if we were talking about signing a 35-year-old Tony Gonzalez. But Pollard had only 12 catches for 100 yards last year and has never been known as a strong blocker. Maybe I'm wrong, and Pollard really has a ton left in the tank, but I wouldn't want to bet any guaranteed money on that.

By the way, I should point out that Pollard is the second 35-year-old tight end signed to a free agent contract this off-season. The other one is Kyle Brady, but frankly, the Patriots don't mind if 35-year-old tight ends rarely catch more than a handful of passes, because they only plan on throwing to him a handful of times. He's in there to block; Ben Watson and David Thomas are the tight ends who will run patterns. Still, Brady isn't the world's best bet to stay healthy and strong either.

Post by Aaron Schatz

 

Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."

It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.

Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.

The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.

Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):

1. Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
2. Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
3. Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
4. Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
5. Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
6. Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
7. Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
8. Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
9. Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
10. Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals

Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.

Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.

On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.

It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.

What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.

On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?

Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.

Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.

Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:

1. Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
2. Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
3. J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
4. Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
5. Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
6. Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
7. Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
8. Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
9. Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
10. Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
    

Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49 million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109 million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as low-cost and fungible.

The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project. These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.

One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.

Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.

Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle gave Hutchinson the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing salary cap, things would never be the same.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Minnesota Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19 League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 0 (the second straight season Hutchinson hasn’t been penalized)
Comments: You’ll get arguments, but most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some time adjusting in Minnesota, but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota line – check out at the Seattle line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’ front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st in Mid/Guard ALY.

Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers

Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot closer.
Games Started (Position) 15 of 16 (15 LG, San Diego Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1 Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding)
Comments: Perhaps the most coveted pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.

(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)

Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns

Contract: Seven years, $49.5 million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland, though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 5 (5 False Start)
Comments: Interesting note: While the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average. RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for that.

Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million guaranteed.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Washington Redskins)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1 Offensive Holding)
Comments: The Redskins were below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly major part. Think they’ll miss him?

Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys

Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LT, Arizona Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37)
Blown Blocks: 7
Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2 Offensive Holding)
Comments: It’s quite simple, really. If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings (some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.

Post by Doug Farrar

I was talking to a friend the other day about the Giants and he brought up the questionable ratings given to Sinorice Moss in a popular video game franchise whose namesake is a particular commentator. I noted, rather astutely, that Moss should have been given a Hiding rating, since he didn't bother to show up for his first season in New York. While Jared Lorenzen actually disappeared for his entire rookie campaign on the Giants practice squad, the second-rounder was around but failed to make a difference on the Giants season. Some of the blame can be put on Moss' strained quadriceps, but Big Blue could have sorely used Moss to stretch out opposing defenses and create space for Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress to work underneath.

A couple of days later, I was talking to another friend (yes, I'm quite popular) about Chad Jackson, the Patriots' second round pick. I retold the Moss story and remarked that Jackson should have also received a Hiding rating -- the Patriots were signing street free agents and Reche Caldwell was their number one wideout most of the year and Jackson still didn't get any burn! "Must have been a bad crop of wide receivers", my friend remarked. That got me to thinking -- was it a bad crop? Historically bad, or just unlucky bad? Or, alternately, do fans just expect too much of rookie wide receivers? The easiest way to find out is to take a look back at wide receivers

I crunched the numbers on the last ten years of wide receivers. Since I was talking about Moss and Jackson, I looked at second-round picks initially, but I spread it out to third and fourth-rounders to try and gain a broader sense of performance. I didn't include first-rounders because more is naturally expected of them.

Compared to other classes, the second, third, and fourth-rounders of 2006 were atrocious. The seventeen wide receivers selected averaged fewer than nine catches and 117 yards each for the season; the average year's average receiver catches fifteen balls and gains over 200 yards. The only other group that was in 2006's territory was even worse: the "class" of 1997.

1997's first round wide receiver crop may go down as one of the all-time worst hauls from a position in a draft, ever. Although it's outside the boundaries of our study, it's worth pointing out that this round saw Ike Hilliard, Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony, and Rae Carruth come off the board. It's not a good sign when your career consists almost solely of three entirely torn ACLs and you are still better off than someone else in your pool. The Florida pair of Hilliard and Anthony did not live up to their relative expectations. As you will see, their performance still blew away the receivers to come.

While 1996 saw Amani Toomer, Muhsin Muhammad, and Bobby Engram go in the second round, and 1998 gave out useful parts like Germane Crowell, Mickael Ricks and Jerome Pathon, 1997's second round offered no redeeming value whatsoever. Kevin Lockett, a college star at Kansas State, wasn't an NFL-caliber receiver. The fact that he lasted seven years in the NFL makes him the star of the group. Will Blackwell, drafted by the usually-reliable Steelers, made Troy Edwards' career in the black and gold look good. The third member of the class was Joey Kent, who had all of thirteen career NFL catches. Hooray.

The third round saw only one wide receiver get drafted: Dedric Ward, who went to the Jets. Ward was actually a useful receiver for a single season, which probably makes him the second-most valuable receiver of the entire group, after Hilliard, until you take a look at the fourth round.

The fourth round, well, it was surprising. It can bring good players into the league -- '96's fourth round brought Charlie Jones into the league, while '98 saw Tim Dwight, Donald Hayes, and Az-Zahir Hakim into pro football. These guys don't generally get much playing time, as fourth-rounders only average eight catches per player their rookie year (that is, if they even make it at all). Even so, '97's performance was below average; it's receivers only caught five passes each. Those receivers? A mix of good and bad. Macey Brooks didn't play until his third season, and was done in the league after his fourth. Keith Poole was developing into a solid receiver with 42 catches in his third year, but he was out of the league by 2002. Albert Connell also had a big third year, and saw himself joining Poole on the unemployment line in '02.

On the other hand, Marcus Robinson's enjoyed a solid professional career, with a big season his sophomore year and a few good weeks in 2003. He'll collect a pension. The other guy to go in Round 4? Derrick Mason, who did nothing until the fourth year of his career but hasn't let up since. Mason had 47 catches through his first three years.

After 1997's season finished, this group of receivers would have been hailed as an awful, awful crop of talent. Carruth had 45 catches, Anthony 33, and after that, Ward had 18 That's abysmal, even for a set of rookies. Furthermore, the guys who had the best NFL careers, Mason, Hilliard (who was injured and only played two games his rookie year) and Robinson, all didn't produce their rookie year. It brings up another question to look at: are the guys having big rookie seasons the ones who develop into future stars?

Going round-by-round, here are the biggest performances and what they boded for the future, as well as the biggest stars and how they did their rookie campaigns:

Second Round: Anquan Boldin's rookie-record 101 catches lap the field; Kevin Johnson's 66 are a runner-up, and he had the benefit of being the only threat on an expansion team that was always losing. Pathon's 58 catches are third, Chris Chambers' 48 fourth, and Antwaan Randle El and Keary Colbert are tied for fifth with 47.

That's an uneven group of receivers. Boldin's a stud. Johnson had a couple more big years but fell out of favor in Cleveland and his career never recovered; he's out of football. Pathon was perpetually expected to break out and never did. Chambers is perceived, at least, as a stud, while his performance has yet to match up. Randle El is yet to match his rookie numbers, and Colbert's lost his spot and on his way out in Carolina. Two (one for Boldin and a half each for Chambers and Randle El) isn't really a strong prediction rate.

The biggest stars from the timeframe that went in the second round would probably be Boldin, Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson, Deion Branch, and Muhsin Muhammad. Toomer had one catch his rookie year; Johnson, Branch, and Muhammad were all around or above the league average for second round wide receivers, but none of them stood out as future stars the way that Boldin did.

Third Round: The best year belongs to Darrell Jackson, whose 53 catches were 16 more than second-place Stepfret Williams. That's right -- the guy whose poster Patrick Crayton had on his wall. Number three is Terrell Owens. Fourth in performance their rookie year was Marvin Minnis, and fifth was friend of the law Chris Henry. Nate Burleson and Laveranues Coles also make appearances in the Top 10.

Maybe Williams did nothing, and Minnis suffered multiple injuries that forced him out of football. Jackson and Owens have had excellent careers, and Burleson, Henry, and Coles aren't doing poorly for themselves either. Stats seem to be a slightly better predictor for this round.

A top five based on career value would include Owens, Jackson, Coles, Steve Smith (10 catches his rookie year), and Hines Ward (15). A better group than the second-rounders, certainly.

Fourth Round: Again, someone steps out from the pack; it's the aforementioned Charlie Jones, who caught 41 passes for the '96 Chargers. He had a similar year in '98, but was out of football after '99. This group's top five finally sees some 2006 guys show up, with Demetrius Williams second in catches with 22, and Brandon Marshall fifth. Hakim is fourth, and Titans receiver Roydell Williams third. The jury is still out on three of these guys; Hakim benefited from being in the right place at the right time, and hasn't done much since he left said spot.

The best fourth rounders from the time period don't compare to the other rounds. Mason stands out, and there are plenty of guys who have had varying degrees of success, but pick four from Robinson, Hakim, Ernest Wilford, Brandon Lloyd, Jerricho Cotchery, Tim Dwight, Hayes, Justin McCareins, and Brandon Stokley and you'll be picking four guys who haven't really developed into anything beyond solid complementary receivers.

So, then, is there hope for the 2006 crop? I'd say so. It's not unprecedented for guys like Moss or Jackson to take big leaps forward as they learn more of the playbook and get more NFL game time in their sophomore season. The land of guys with five-catch rookie seasons, though, is littered with a lot more failures than the stratospheric heights reached by Boldin and Darrell Jackson. If you're a Giants fan (or administrator), hope Moss will get better, but don't depend on it; in the Patriots' case, hope that Bill Belichick's faith in Florida Gators works out slightly better than his previous obsession with guys from LSU.

post by Bill Barnwell

So, over at NFL.com, Adam Schefter is writing about the great head coach free agency of 2008, and after talking about Bill Cowher and Jeff Fisher (whose contract ends this year) and Bill Parcells, we get to this:

And maybe, most interesting, multiple sources around the league believe that Belichick's contract, which does have three years remaining on it, is filled with mutual options that could allow him or the team to nullify the deal as early as next year.

Schefter is not the first person to write about these supposed "Bill Belichick will leave the Patriots rumors." But do you remember what I said a couple weeks ago about the ridiculous Donovan McNabb-to-Vikings nonsense? I mean, I trust Adam Schefter a lot more than I trust random dude at the St. Paul Pioneer Press, but again, unless I have missed something, there is absolutely no proof of this being true.

There is no proof that Belichick's contract has out clauses. Apparently, multiple sources believe. That's it. Bill Belichick has not told anyone he has out clauses. Robert Kraft has not told anyone he has out clauses. Nobody has actually seen the physical contract with out clauses. If one of those three things was true, Schefter wouldn't use the word believe. He would say "multiple sources around the league say..."

But wait, it gets better. In all the rumors of Belichick leaving New England, nobody has brought up any possible reasons WHY he would want to leave. People talk about the Giants job being his dream job, but Bill Belichick did not grow up in New York or New Jersey. He grew up in Annapolis, Maryland, and lives on Martha's Vineyard during a large portion of the off-season.

Power? He has total control in New England. If Belichick told Jonathan Kraft that the Patriots would be more likely to make it to Super Bowl XLII if he had an egg salad sandwich for lunch, you can bet Kraft would have an egg salad sandwich for lunch.

Money? Coaches are the one thing for which there is no salary cap (well, coaches and trainers) and you could not possibly list a salary so high that Robert Kraft would not pay it. I mean, if Belichick gets super greedy there are going to be a couple of synagogues around Boston that don't get new Torahs next year, but it isn't like Robert Kraft is hurting for money, considering how much of it he gives away.

Maybe he's just tired of this and wants a new challenge? Um, hello? In the salary cap NFL, EVERY YEAR is a new challenge. Almost half the 2006 Patriots were not on the team when they won Super Bowl XXXIX. Besides, would you trade the challenge of building a team around Tom Brady for the challenge of building a team around Eli Manning?

The only possible reason that makes any sense is the idea that Belichick would want to live closer to that woman down in New Jersey who broke up his marriage. I assume she's getting a divorce herself, though, and what, he couldn't move her up to Foxboro? Get real. Plus, that only explains the Giants rumors, not the wacko "Belichick to the Houston Texans" nonsense from Ron Borges.

Oh, and have you noticed all the hype about Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith becoming the first African-American head coaches in the Super Bowl? Yes, the NFL sure would look fondly upon the Mara family telling new general manager Jerry Reese to go take a hike so white boy Bill Belichick can run the Giants. That would certainly score one for racial progress.

I guess when I go to the Indy combine, I'll put this near the top of the to do list: Find out if anybody has any actual concrete reasons why the "Bill Belichick wants to leave New England" rumors are true.

Until then, to quote Chuck D., don't believe the hype.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called.

New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay

McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.

The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.

Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.

McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.

New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo

One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.

Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.

Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.

Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.

The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.

Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.

Post by Doug Farrar

Yesterday, we looked at what the Football Outsiders game charting project said about which defensive players on Chicago and New Orleans are most often in coverage against different types of receivers. Read that for an intro to the idea and all the standard explanations and caveats.
Today, Indianapolis and New England.

Indianapolis Colts

vs. #1 WR

• 25-N.Harper 31%
• 42-J.David 29%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 10%
• 26-K.Hayden 8%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• Other 13%

vs. #2 WR

• 42-J.David 30%
• 25-N.Harper 26%
• 26-K.Hayden 7%
• 28-M.Jackson 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
• Other 22%

Wowie zowie. That's some pretty evenly split Tampa-2 action right there. But here's something interesting: Nick Harper has a 37% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 57% stop rate against #2 WR. Jason David has a 56% stop rate against #1 WR, but a 38% stop rate against #2 WR. A look at which receivers counted as #1 or #2 backs up something we learned from the 2005 charting data: David generally plays things closer, so he stops more plays but gives up larger gains when he gets beat. The receivers who had success against Harper were mainly possession-style guys: Reggie Williams, Andre Johnson, Eric Moulds. (Terrell Owens was an exception, he got Harper deep a couple of times.) The receivers who had success against David were mainly speed guys: Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Terry Glenn, Drew Bennett. (Yes, Drew Bennett is a speed guy. He's "deceptively" speedy, as we all know.)

I guess Reche Caldwell is the #1 WR and the speed guy for the Patriots, so the Patriots may want to have Caldwell on David's side and Jabar Gaffney on Harper's side.

vs. Other WR

• 25-N.Harper 24%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 20%
• 42-J.David 16%
• 58-G.Brackett 10%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 59-C.June 6%
• Other 18%

The Colts have passes to "Other WR" come up as Uncovered or Hole in Zone twice as often as their Tampa-2 brethren up north in Illinois. I would have to check, but I would guess that the Colts are the only team where the nickel back doesn't even come up as covering "Other WR" on at least 5% of passes. Then again, Kelvin Hayden isn't always the nickel back -- the Colts also use safety Marlin Jackson as nickel back, especially in likely run situations.

vs. TE

• 58-G.Brackett 23%
• 25-N.Harper 14%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 14%
• 59-C.June 9%
• 42-J.David 6%
• 28-M.Jackson 6%
• 41-A.Bethea 5%
• 20-M.Doss 5%
• 51-G.Gardner 5%
• Other 13%

The other difference between the Chicago Tampa-2 and the Indy Tampa-2: Gary Brackett is in that middle zone defending the tight end seam routes more often than Brian Urlacher is.

New England Patriots

vs. #1 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 25%
• 27-E.Hobbs 25%
• 30-C.Scott 14%
• 54-T.Bruschi 6%
• 80-T.Brown 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 21%

That Troy Brown number is basically all against Green Bay; the Pats will only use Brown as a slot cornerback -- he knows that position best thanks to his role in the offense -- so the Packers lined Donald Driver up in the slot to take advantage.

vs. #2 WR

• 22-A.Samuel 27%
• 30-C.Scott 17%
• 27-E.Hobbs 16%
• 26-E.Wilson 9%
• 25-A.Hawkins 7%
• 32-H.Poteat 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
• Other 14%

Hank Poteat keeps two apartments: one on Long Island, one in Foxboro.

vs. Other WR

• 22-A.Samuel 28%
• 30-C.Scott 20%
• 27-E.Hobbs 17%
• 37-R.Harrison 6%
• 36-J.Sanders 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 20%

Yes, that's correct. We have Asante Samuel listed as the most common defender against all three types of wide receivers. Hint to Peyton Manning: When Ellis Hobbs or Chad Scott is on Marvin Harrison, throw it to him. (I don't think Peyton needs my hints, actually.)

vs. TE

• 50-M.Vrabel 20%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 18%
• 54-T.Bruschi 14%
• 37-R.Harrison 11%
• 27-E.Hobbs 7%
• 55-J.Seau 6%
• Other 24%

This probably has no bearing on Dallas Clark. Let's be honest, if Dallas Clark is a tight end, I'm a turnip. But Mike Vrabel has definitely lost something in pass coverage this season, so Ben Utecht could take advantage of that.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ben Maller's rumors and notes page is a really useful feature here at FOXSports.com because it aggregates stories from a bunch of newspaper websites you wouldn't check otherwise. But not every newspaper story is worth highlighting.

The top headline on the NFL page today is "Eagles McNabb to Vikings?" That story is featured in a link on the main FOXSports.com NFL front page as well. If the Eagles are really considering trading Donovan McNabb to Minnesota, that's a huge story. That's really great reporting by whichever reporter discovered that one.

Except it isn't.

The rumor comes from the "Overheard" column at the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The column is anonymous, and this is what it says:

Intriguing thought: If the Philadelphia Eagles were to beat the Saints on Saturday in New Orleans with quarterback Jeff Garcia, they would advance to the NFC championship game without starting QB Donovan McNabb, who's out with a knee injury.

Would Eagles coach Andy Reid, a pal of Vikings coach Brad Childress, who was McNabb's offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, then be willing to trade McNabb, 30, to the Vikings, who need a blockbuster playmaker to retain their season-ticket base?

Or would the Vikings try to sign the unrestricted free agent Garcia, 36, who runs the same West Coast offense as Childress, allowing Tarvaris Jackson more time to develop?

That's right. This isn't reporting. There is no indication whatsoever that the Eagles are actually considering a deal to send McNabb to the Vikings. A Pioneer Press sportswriter -- who isn't even high enough in the Pioneer Press hierarchy to get a byline -- just sort of had an "intriguing thought" in an otherwise tossed-off notes column. And suddenly it's a story, and not only does it get NFL front page play here at FOXSports.com, but I'm sure they are talking about it all over sports radio in Philadelphia and Minnesota as if Andy Reid actually told a reporter, "We're considering trading Donovan to the Vikings, and going with Jeff as the starter next year."

Are you kidding me?

Tell you what, let's start one too and see if we can get everyone talking about it as if it is an actual possibility.

Intriguing thought: With Urban Meyer winning a national championship at Florida, and proving himself a world-class offensive mind, would Wayne Huizenga consider offering Meyer the largest contract in NFL coaching history to take over the Dolphins?

There you go. Urban Meyer is officially a leading candidate for the Dolphins job. Go and spread the word.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:

"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."

"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."

"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."

"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."

"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"

"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"

"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."

"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."

"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."

"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."

"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."

"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"

"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"

"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"

"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."

"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."

"This is the craziest #### game I've ever seen!"

"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."

"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."

"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"

"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."

"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."

"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."

"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."

"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."

"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."

"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.

"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."

"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."

"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."

"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."

"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."

"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."

Read more in Audibles at the Line on FootballOutsiders.com.
 

post by Mike Tanier

So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.

("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)

Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).

KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense, since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.

Dal