Michael Perez: Looking through the DVOA rankings for wide receivers, Torry Holt seems awfully far down on the list, including a negative DVOA! Though Rams games are not ones I watch consistently, I was under the anecdotal impression he was a top tier receiver. Is he overrated?
Aaron Schatz: Interesting question. We've always thought of Torry Holt as a top tier receiver -- in fact, as perhaps the most consistent top tier receiver. From 1999-2005, Torry Holt had more combined DPAR than any other wide receiver in the NFL, and he led the league in DPAR as recently as 2003.
However, there's no question that his numbers have slipped in the last two years. Before 2005, Holt had never averaged less than 14 yards per catch, but he averaged 13.0 in 2005 and 12.8 n 2006. The other thing to drop was his catch rate. He caught more than 60% of intended passes every year until 2006. Last year, he caught 52% of intended passes, the lowest of anyone on the Rams.
There's a reasonable argument to be made that Holt isn't playing any worse. What we are seeing here may be the focus of defenses moving over the past two seasons from treating Holt and Isaac Bruce as equals to acknowledging that Holt is now the superior player.
But it's also interesting to look at the game charting for last year. We have 9 drops listed for Holt, and only 2 for Bruce. We also have three incompletes listed as "Miscommunication," with none for Bruce.
The strangest result is in the category of "Overthrown." 26 of the 78 charted incomplete passes to Holt are marked as Overthrown. Only 6 of the charted 44 incomplete passes to Bruce are marked as Overthrown. Only 3 of the combined 22 incomplete passes charted to Shaun McDonald or Kevin Curtis are marked as Overthrown. I have no idea why Holt would be easier to overthrow than the other receivers. Some of these are deep routes, but not all of them.
Anyway, put it all together and I think we get a combination of tighter coverage, a slight slowdown as Holt passes the age of 30, and a somewhat fluky one-year case of the dropsies.
The Rams focus also shifted more to the run than in previous years which contributed to Holt receiving fewer passes than the year before. Bruce was also injured which makes their passing game more vulnerable when Holt is the only top flight receiver. I think his age may be playing a part but remember he also missed 2 games and wasn't really healthy in 2 or 3 more. I think Holt and Steve Smith had similar troubles with too much attention being paid to them. Hope the Rams upgrade at receiver this offseason.
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