When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49
million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive
lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy
dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109
million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard
really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as
low-cost and fungible.
The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats
for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back
carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack
Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In
addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project.
These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.
One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly
conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of
many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.
Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five
linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost
a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.
Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota
Vikings
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings
signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison
pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the
Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle
gave Hutchinson
the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot
Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing
salary cap, things would never be the same. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LG, Minnesota
Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League
Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19
League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 0 (the second straight
season Hutchinson
hasn’t been penalized) Comments: You’ll get arguments, but
most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some
time adjusting in Minnesota,
but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if
you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota
line – check out at the Seattle
line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’
front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from
ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st
in Mid/Guard ALY.
Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers
Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two
years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on
the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot
closer. Games Started (Position) 15 of 16
(15 LG, San Diego
Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average
4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1
Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding) Comments: Perhaps the most coveted
pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and
Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over
time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only
to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in
the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus
McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.
(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)
Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns
Contract: Seven years, $49.5
million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to
the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland,
though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati
Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left
Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 3 Penalties: 5 (5 False Start) Comments: Interesting note: While
the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of
the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an
Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average.
RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for
that.
Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills
Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million
guaranteed. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16
LG, Washington
Redskins) Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left
Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League
Average 4.32) Blown Blocks: 0 Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1
Offensive Holding) Comments: The Redskins were below
the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right
End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly
major part. Think they’ll miss him?
Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys
Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this
one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex
Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line. Games Started (Position) 16 of 16
(16 LT, Arizona
Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12)
Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37) Blown Blocks: 7 Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2
Offensive Holding) Comments: It’s quite simple, really.
If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial
reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the
President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings
(some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was
the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s
signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.
So, with Dockery- was he a plus on the line? I am unfamiliar with stat comparisons in general. The way I read it, he seems to be (almost) worth the money for the Bills.
I believe that Lenard Davis is being way over paid.
Arizona did not want to hang on because he was not that over powering, hard nose, blocker that they thought he would be. He stands 6 ft 7 inch Tall 365 lbs but does not play big.
Only time will tell if he pans out but i would not bet my 49 mill on it.
Being from Minny, I don't think the Viking's "O" line played too well this year with Hutch! I bet with a year under his belt, should fit in well with Matt Burk& Co. From what i seen this year he's a very good lineman. Worth the $$$ we'll see?
I would take the gamble on hitch before the others on list. Because of how he has played throughout his career!
Another clueless post..this guy must be Adam Schein in disguise.
Why dont we here more about the ridiculous signing the Patriots made.
$10million a year for a 280pound 30 year old linebaker.
Dont care if Adalius is Lawrence Taylor and Ray Lewis's love child, for 10 mil a year , you can have Marvin Harrison and Terrel Owens.
Offensive lineman are only as good as the other lineman around them.
all of these guys are quality lineman.
and for the money, any common sense would tell you Leonard Davis was the Best signing, not the worst.
He moves back to guard for Dallas which is where he can excel. Cards expected him to be a great Left Tackle. Well guess what there have only mean about 5 Great left tackles in the NFl over the last 15 years or so.
Last edited by Texascudaguy on March 9th at 6:34 PM.
Well i don't think better then Hutch as far as impact to a line! But "Not" last on that list by no mean's! I would love to have a guy like that with "Burk & Hutch" Would easily be the best line in Football!
That a 69'Plymouth Barricuda you got there? Nice car! Will be Looking for a car to restore soon! myself... Would like to do a 69" or 70 Chevelle if i can find one that i don't have to replace a ton of sheet metal on?
Texascudaguy: Man, I'm a huge Cowboys fan, but L Davis is the best signing? By what possible measurement? Larry Allen wasn't paid anywhere NEAR what LD is getting, and LD will NEVER be Larry Allen, not even at guard. Based on potential? Then the Raiders will have to pay JaMarcus Russell $ 20,000,000.00 a year based on your deductive reasoning. LD may turn out to be a really good guard, but nothing he's done can possibly justify this money. The problem is that JJ is back in charge and we could be in real trouble.
Last edited by tonysecure on March 9th at 11:58 PM.
I agree with tonysecure; looks like JJ is back in charge in Dallas, which is BAD news for all us Cowboys fans. Personally, I think that was one of the reasons, if not the main reason, that Parcells left. Granted, he didn't take the team where he promised he would, but the team is much better now in comparison to how it was when he took charge.
As for Leonard Davis, I can't say I'm overjoyed at the move. He seems to have potential, but that simply isn't enough to justify that type of mega-buck contract. For that much money, the Cowboys could have brought in a real "difference-maker," offensive or defensive.
One lineman isn't going to make a huge difference for Dallas b/c they need more help than that on their line(s). The o-line is getting old and beat up, as is their d-line, their linebackers are subpar, the secondary is overrated. Take your pick at what to rebuild. Just from free agency the Cowboys could have signed any number of players to augment their team that would have made much more of a difference than Leonard Davis.
But, alas; such is life for a Dallas Cowboys fan.
Last edited by FaithfulCowboy on March 10th at 7:51 AM.
If JJ had listened to others, instead of Parcells, then maybe the Boys would have a better line by now and wouldn't have to overextend themselves to go out and get a guy like Davis. Parcells whiffed on three first day draft picks, then neglected the o-line until the seventh round in his next two drafts. He brought in Rivera on the downside of his career, and Rivera has stunk it up for 2 seasons. Last year, Parcells brought in Fabini; I live near NY and watch a lot of the Jets: Fabini was just plain awful in 2005 before his injury and it was a worse move than this Davis signing, even considering the money involved. Parcells also postponed the development of Gurode as a center, a mistake he admitted himself. Now Gurode and Flozell Adams are the two best linemen of the team, and guess what: they were brought in by JJ, not Bill Parcells. The only good things BP did for the line: he brought in Marc Colombo off the street, and he helped to motivate the previously underachieving Adams.
Of course Leonard Davis was overpaid! But, that is the market for offensive lineman. What were the Cowboys supposed to do? They couldn't go into the season with an unproven lineman? Especially since they weren't even sure Marc Columbo was coming back. Sometimes you have to overpay to fill an area of need. This is the NFL, not a fantasy league.
texasscudaguy sounds real stupid 2 insult the other lineman who have had great careers every o_lineman at free agency was better then davis by a huge margain cowboys waste they money on knuckleheads and first round bus he might have the patentual 2 be special but he is a first round bus it dont take an athlete seven years 2 show what he got cowboys will regret it if they exspect him 2 b dominate he wont be more then mediocore
hello to all you cowboys fans i think l. davis is a bust that is why we did not press to get him that big of a man is slow that is why card got rid of him jj you bust again just like our dan synder. redskins56
Just a quick question for those of you who feel it is appropriate to defend JJ: If the man has such a nose for talent and is so good at running the team, why haven't the 'Boys won a Superbowl since 1996?
During the tenures of Chan Gailey (18-14 career) and Dave Campo (15-33 career), who do you think was running the team, the head coach or JJ? Gailey could have had a shot, but Jerry got impatient, took things over and brought in Campo (a puppet), who was arguably the worst Cowboys coach in the team's history.
It wasn't until Parcells arrived that the Cowboys began to reemerge as a contending team ("contending" does not mean they're the best). Parcells made both good and not-so-good moves, but the bottom line is that the Cowboys are far better now after having a coach who told the GM to stay the heck out of the way.
You might want to check you gauges gentlemen; much to your and probably his chagrin, JJ is not the man who is going to bring glory back into the 'Boys lockerroom.
Just some simple numbers on Leonard Davis... based on his time in the league and with the club, had the Cardinals franchised him, it would have cost them $14 million for next year. THAT is why the Cards let him go. I don't know that you can judge any player based on their time with the Cards... they're just a BAD organization-- top to bottom. If Davis is held accountable to be more disciplined, I think a lot of people will be changing their opinion on this signing a year from now.
In SF, Jonas Jennings signed a big contract a couple years ago, Larry Allen last year, and look at what Frank Gore did running about 90% of the time behind them on the left side.
The only reason Jerry Jones paid Davis so much money is because Davis took a trip to DC and Jones was scared he would get outbid by Dan Snyder. Im sure if the Skins didnt show any interest, Davis would have been signed at a much lower cost.
Will someone please call Al Davis and his new coach and tell them theres a way to evauluate line men. Also show them that smart teams spend money on O line. Any help on this is greatly!!! Apreciated
Last edited by countryboy93203 on March 11th at 9:52 AM.
Skin's fans: Considering Dockery is replacing a journeyman, not-even-adequate player (MIke Gandy), did the Bills overspend on him? I've heard everything from, "the rest of the line made him look good," to "not re-signing him is a disaster." I think I heard Gibbs say he'll be badly missed. What's your spin?
Offensive Lines are the foundations o####ood football team, and offensive linemen have to be selfless. If they are made into superstars they could forget who is running behind them and then defeat the whole purpose of being good at that position. They should be paid well but a running back and quarterback are still counting on +4 guys to do their job. If you pay one tackle or guard too much how will a team afford other capable linemen?
Dockery's awesome man. Screw David. He's real bad anyway. Probably gonna ruin his career because of Dallas' reputation for false starts for like 500 a game.
Last time I checked, pointing out that Jones did better with the offensive line than Parcells did (or even if I were to point out that Parcells wanted to draft Spears before Ware, which of course would have lost us Ware), isn't the same as saying Jones doesn't make any mistakes, or that Jones didn't run the franchise into the ground after Jimmy Johnson and he brought it back to glory in the 90s.
Leonard Davis has been a pro bowl alternate all but one of his seasons in the league (2004, which was his first season playing left tackle). Yes, as the number two pick in the draft he hasn't met expectations. But it's not like he has had a totally worthless career. Many players have excelled once they left Arizona. Denny Green and his staff did an awful job with the offensive line there. As usual, some people are overreacting to a questionable signing because they love to hate on the Cowboys and especially on Jerry Jones.
Yeah, JJ may be back in charge but let's not forget the big money signings under Parcells. This year is make or break for Jason Ferguson and he is not a full-time run stopper with his 30 year old legs. Roy Williams getting 12 million to sign with no coverage skills whatsoever. Bradie "I couldn't tackle my mother" James gets big money after one year at tanks. Marco Rivera at 30 gets almost ten million and has back surgery 2 weeks later. Jason Fabini has done nothing. These were all Parcells signings. It will take us all a year or two to get used to average players making All-Pro money but this will be the norm until all the cap room is taken up. This is what happens when the owners give in during the collective bargaining agreement talks.
Re: Dockery. I think this must be a case of "lies, damn lies, and statistics". Those of us who watched the 'skins for the entirety of Dockery's tenure know that he was always the weak link along the line. Big guy. Nice physique. Could often get a decent push. But he's maddeningly inconsistent & always seemed to be a culprit on those plays where everything fell apart. The article here seems to imply that he was actually the most important piece of the puzzle. I just didn't see it. Forget the exorbitant contract he got from Buffalo... even at an average salary, I saw him as just that... an average guard. Not that I'm happy he's gone because everyone loves OL consistency, but these stats just don't add up to what most of us saw with our own eyes.
Leonard Davis is only guaranteed to make a litte over 2.5 million a year on that contract. Not bad if he turnes out to be an average lineman. If he turns out to be a pro-bowl caliber player the contract will not look so ridiculous, until he holdsout or fires his agent and hires Drew Rosenhaus..ha!
Not sure about that $2.5 mil per year number. If he turns out to be average, implying the Cowboys keep him, then the salary for each year has to be factored in. Here are the numbers per season as broken down by AdamJT13 at the Cowboys Zone:
Base salaries (cap figure)
2007 - $600,000 ($2.27 million cap figure)
2008 - $2 million ($3.67 mil)
2009 - $2.4 million ($4.07 mil)
2010 - $3 million (4.67 mil)
2011 - $5.5 million (7.17 mil)
2012 - $6.5 million (8.17 mil)
Last edited by BlueStarDude on March 13th at 6:19 AM.
Jerry Jones won three superbowls how many total superbowls has your favorite team won? If you aren't the 49ers or Steelers then already your point is moot. Leonard Davis is way overpaid no doubt about it, but it's the collective picture. Andre Gurode was a nice resigning and Marc Colombo was key. He gave up zero sacks in the first 8 games and 1-2 on the year. With Rivera almost on his way out and continuity on the line means that Kyle Kosier is the only guy I want out. Flozell sucks too but how can you replace him right now? The real hopeful thing is that Leonard Davis will stay a guard not move to Left Tackle in one year after Flozell is not resigned. Either way look for the cowboys to field the best offensive line we have seen since 1999.
Alan Faneca, Shawn Andrews, Will Shields, Ruben Brown and Brian Waters must be licking their chops waiting for their contracts to expire. Amazing how left tackle was the only "glory" position on the o-line for a long time but seeing how the Seahawks dropped off this year with the departure of Steve Hutchinson made teams realize how important the Left Guard is as well. It does make sense since the left Guard is responsible for more pulling and trapping than any other line position and having a Guard that can pull or trap is often times more important to your run game than the guy running the ball. Just look at how the salaries for RB's have stayed flat or actually decreased in value.
Again, another example o####ood article being HIjacked by cowboys fans who are utterly fascinated with themselves. If you want to talk Cowboys football, timewarp back to when they actually were America's Team and people respected the organization. Right now they are probably considered more like America's Demon. Thank JJ for that.
As far as the article, I thought it showed that it was very common to approach, but not go over the $50 mill contract. Every one of them was like $49.5 mill or $49 mill for 7 years. (except for Deilman, but his was only 6 years) Does anyone else think that is sort of regulated inflation or monopolistic colusion? Very strange that they all were for about the same amount. Maybe we need to start testing the players' AGENTS for drugs, because these contracts they get their players are inhuman.
DeeDeeDeeDallas is paying that DeeDeeDeeDavis the same money? He was supposed to be LT of the decade until they figured out he couldnt block worth a damn. Now the cowchips are overpaying him 7 million dollars to be one of the biggest busts in cowflop history. Arizona had the worst O line in the league and even THEY couldn't get rid of him fast enough- what does that tell you?
Last edited by tallmansvt on March 13th at 1:48 PM.
my only question is that the Cardinals team he left had Russ Grimm on it, one of the best O line developers and talent evaluators at his position. They also got a new head coach Ken Wisenhunt both from the Steelers. Both are offensive guys, and both are very very very good. In fact Grimm was a candidate for several head coaching positions. So what did they not see in Davis? Porb technique, discipline, overbearing strength which he should have for his size. Hes an average lineman who entices people because of his potential. Potential....the most dangerous and costly word in all of football screws many out of millions.
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