Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370
Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was
going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read
the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and
keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?
I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that
LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is
your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?
Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.
And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.
I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.
By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.
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