We all know that the Colts defense has turned things around so dramatically in the playoffs. But I'm not sure people understand what a historical outlier the Colts would be if they actually beat the Patriots this Sunday and make Super Bowl XLI. They would have the worst regular season defense to ever make the Super Bowl -- certainly since 1978, the year the NFL expanded to a 16-game season and liberalized passing rules to increase offense. The Saints would also end up as one of the worst defenses to ever make the Super Bowl, although not quite to same degree.
Check out where the 2006 Colts and Saints stand in the following categories. Teams that actually won the Super Bowl are in italics.
Most regular season points allowed by conference champion
(since 1978):
2006 Colts, 360
1983 Raiders, 338
1983 Redskins, 332
1988 Bengals, 329
1995 Steelers, 327
1986 Broncos, 327
1999 Titans, 324
2006 Saints, 322
1991 Bills, 318
Most regular season rushing yards per carry allowed for conference
champion (since 1978):
2006 Colts, 5.3
2006 Saints, 4.9
1997 Broncos, 4.7
1984 Dolphins, 4.7
1982 Dolphins, 4.4
1986 Broncos, 4.4
1987 Broncos, 4.4
2004 Eagles, 4.3
2001 Patriots, 4.3
Highest completion percentage allowed during regular season
by conference champion (since 1978):
2006 Colts, 64.3%
1994 Chargers, 62.9%
2004 Eagles, 60.7%
2002 Raiders, 60.7%
1993 Cowboys, 60.2%
1995 Steelers, 59.1%
1992 Bills, 58.7%
2004 Patriots, 58.6%
2001 Rams, 58.0%
2005 Seahawks, 58.0%
The Saints allowed a 56.3% completion percentage this season, so in this category, they would actually end up roughly average among conference champions.
Fewest regular season interceptions by conference champion
(since 1978):
2006 Saints, 11
1982 Redskins, 11 (strike year)
1990 Giants, 13
1993 Cowboys, 14
2005 Steelers, 15
2006 Colts, 15
2005 Seahawks, 16
2003 Panthers, 16
1999 Titans, 16
1986 Broncos, 18
In the Colts' defense, they faced only 414 pass attempts all year because they were so easy to run on, so their interception per pass attempt rate isn't quite so awful.
How about our advanced Football Outsiders stats?
Worst regular season defensive DVOA by conference champion
(since 1997):
2006 Colts, 11.3%
2006 Saints, 3.6%
1998 Broncos, 0.4%
2004 Eagles, -2.2%
2005 Seahawks, -3.5%
1999 Titans, -4.6%
2001 Patriots, -6.3%
2002 Raiders, -6.4%
And finally, here's an important stat that measures both points scored and allowed, Pythagorean wins. For those unfamiliar, this takes points scored and allowed and projects an estimate of wins over a 16-game season. The team with the most Pythagorean wins has won the Super Bowl more often than the team with the most actual wins, although the team with the most Pythagorean wins this year is now out of the playoffs (Ravens, 12.7):
1979 Rams, 8.4
2003 Panthers, 8.6
1986 Broncos, 9.4
2006 Colts, 9.6
1980 Raiders, 9.6
1999 Titans, 9.8
1995 Steelers, 10.0
1994 Chargers, 10.0
1985 Patriots, 10.1
1988 49ers, 10.1
2006 Saints, 10.3
Just because something has never been done before doesn't mean that it can't be done in the future. But no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a defense this bad, much less won the thing. The Saints are a different issue, because their defense wasn't as bad as the Colts during the season, and the Bears' own defense has been having problems since the beginning of December. But as great as the Colts' defense has been over the last two weeks, I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why those two games are a better indicator than the 16 games that came before.
Postscript: I should note that the same issue exists with Peyton Manning. There's no reason to believe that his poor performance in the last two games is a better indicator of how he'll play next week than his fabulous performance in the first 16 games.
History is rewritten everyday. Think about the Red Sox coming back from a 0-3 defecit to win 4 straight. That had never been done before either. All of you so called experts are just unhappy that the Colts and the Patriots won after you all picked the Chargers and Ravens declaring that defense wins championships. I enjoyed watching pregame shows and all the experts pick the other 2 teams because of their superior defensive stats. Then they had to stumble all over themselves to explain how the Colts defense can be so good 2 weeks straight. I can tell you why, the defense has always been decent. They have not had all of their starters healthy and in the game at one time. Colts are still missing Doss and Simon. I am not saying they would have been better than SD or Baltimore. However, they would not have been ranked where they are. They would have definitely been better than their stats show. Stats don't account for heart, will, and determination. Do all of us fans a favor and quit picking who will win every week because this weekend went to show that experts don't know anything. 3 out of the 4 teams who won were not supposed to according to all the expert opinions. Chicago was the only favorite to win who actually did win. Write about something interesting. Do Gary Brackett's story or pick a NE player or coach who has conquered the odds and made it. Leave the predictions alone and write something interesting. I personally am hoping for a Colts and Saints SB. Wouldn't that be great. New Orleans obviously needs this after all that city has been through. On the
Last edited by nursestickalot on January 15th at 11:37 AM.
In my opinion (i've seen every Colts game all year), you gotta say no. 21 is the difference. In the New England game this year when he played he was obviously a difference maker. Sure, they still gave up over 100 rushing yards but he was crackin heads and makin plays, and with the whole history thing, i dont thin Pittsburgh had history on their side last year!!!
i don't think it would be that much of a surprise to see the colts not only beat the pats and advance to the sb but to win it all. lets face it other than brady, manning and co. have more experience in title games than any other. the last 2 meetings b/w peyton and brady, peyton gave it to the pats...they will be indoors...and for some reason the colts run d decided to only play for the playoffs...if u can stop l.j. and jamal i think they could handle the "phoney moroney" the only adv. brady has is the same that montana had.. the ability o make big plays at big times...the colts need to score early on often. whoever makes it to the sb from the nfc (hopefully who dat) will be auto runner ups...the afc is in a class of its own in recent years...much like the nfc of the 80's and 90's. I HOPE PEYTON FINALLY GETS HIS RING SO EVERYONE WILL JUST SHUT UP AND MOVE ON ABOUT HIM. he's one of the all time greats already.
This is probably the most ridiculous, dumb reasoning I've ever read. The Saints Defense, believe it or not is ranked #11 in the NFL according to official statistics. Now, last time I checked, the Saints were just below the patriots, and 15 yards per game less than the bears, but with a better pass defense than the Bears. Whomever the author of this is should really be embarassed to head a blog with such a dumb storyline.
Oh, yeah, dissect this. After a 3-13 year, according to History, the Saints shouldn't be where they are, but they are. I know for you scientific thinkers out there, this may not be logical, but then again, Star Trek was science fiction too.
What the heck!if Peyton Manning doesn't get a ring..This is not the first time fabulous players walk out of games without getting married with the game..Patrick Ewing and Charles Barcley (was recently inducted in the Hall of Fame) came to mind.The Bears-Patriots scenario, despite your STATS, seems unlikely unless you have been to a PALM READER or a CRYSTALBALL READER recently...
Dude, Aaron, are you still trying to make arguments and predictions for this season based off past statistics? Have you people (media, "experts") not learned your lesson already? The Colts have repeatedly defied the odds this postseason. You can take your Pythagorean argument and shove it where the sun don't shine for all I care - we're sick of hearing about statistics and have phoney people like you make predictions and then sounding like fools trying to backpeddal and make excuses for why you were wrong. Just watch, the Colts will defy your statistics once again, what will you say then?
If you read the articles on the Football Outsiders site, you'll notice that before every single article/game preview involving the Patriots Aaron Schatz makes a disclaimer that he is a Patriots fan. It is common knowledge that he lives in New England and roots for the Patriots. I still think FO offers the best, least biased football analysis. You should go look at the site before jumping to conclusions.
Irishtiger, you're using the conventional rankings based on yds/game. FO uses a system of statistical analysis called DVOA that measure the success or lack thereof of every play in relation to the entire league.
The Colts run defense was terrible the entire season until the playoffs, and their pass defense was mediocre. They've played much better in the playoffs but they were also helped by poor opposing QB play and a terrible game plan by the Chiefs. Their tackling has been much better and when they stack the box with 8 men they can stop runs up the middle, which is exactly what the Chiefs did repeatdly. Their problem all year has been with cutbacks and draws/delays, misdirection, and not being able to get off blocks. I'm not saying they are going to be blown away by Dillon/Maroney but I'd be very surprised if they held the Patriots to under 100 yds rushing.
Last edited by rolliefingersmustache on January 15th at 12:51 PM.
If you want to excoriate Football Outsiders that's fine but don't put its' intelligent analysis in the same boat with idiots like Sean Salisbury or Chris Berman. They're not pundits, they're geeky statisticians who like football.
i bet against the colts in vegas sunday and lost.. but turned around and bet the pats and tom brady on the money line and won big for the day... old las vegas proverb ... don't bet money against tom brady in big games and play-off situations he is the best already all-time and documented .. having said that i will lay off the game..and root for tony and mannings crew...the sad facts are the colts have a better team and home field ..and i still won't lay the bread... remember the proverb.....
I don't know about a Bears Pats Super Bowl. I'm thinking Colts Saints. Who knows. As for all the stats they give me a head ache. If this season proves anything on any given day it's anyones guess. How about the simple give-away take-away stat. If that was [ and it would seem to make sense] the Bears would be watching from their easy chairs at home. But here they are. We'll see Sun. Geaux Saints
You so call expert are so lost. the Saints will win in Chicago regardless of the weather because Chicago has just barely been getting bye their defense will not do it "one more time"... as far as the Colts and Patriots well all I have to say about that is that it will be a total shame to Indy if they were not to win.... Damn the Best Damn Super Bowl Ever, Saints 35, Colts 31
hey. we all know the patriots never get the respect they deserve, but please italize the 2001 Patriots under "Highest completion percentage..." , cause in case you guys forgot, they did win the superbowl, as they will again do so this year.
but the last time i looked sporting events are played on the field of competition and not on paper like peyton manning said, its always said that come playoff time you throw the statistics out of the window but it seems like the colts are the exception. ive never seen so many sports writers pulling against one man and one organization so much in my entire life. its enough people!! just let them play the game and see what happens. its old by now
The NFC championship being in Chicago is THE biggest factor in why the Bears will win. If it was in NO, I'd say the Saints by two touch- in Chicago 24-21 Bears.
The performance of the "tampa 2" cover 2 defense depends upon the safety. Yes, Bob Sanders makes that much of a difference. Look at the performance of the Bears defense without Mike Brown. Coincidence? I think not. This one position is evidently key to the scheme, even more so than one position is to other defensive schemes.
i think the colts defense have steped up. they were tired of hereing they were the worst defense in the NFL. On the other hand the curse of postseason with peyton manning has so far been proved, but i think if there defense keeps playing and there offense plays like they did in the regular season they will be unstopable!
Very interesting stats, but the fact that teams are statistically poor in one area doesn't count them out, especially to be just one win away from the Super Bowl. We hear the motto "Defense wins championships" every year, but until somebody proves differently, the team that scores the most points wins. Fortunately, the games are not played with calculators, and there are variables that always apply. If you don't believe that, ask the Chargers.
Last edited by KhanLee on January 15th at 3:44 PM.
No QB worse than Rex Grossman in a championship game?
Trent Dilfer, Stan Humphries, Neil O'Donnell, Jay Schroeder, Jeff Hostetler, Erik Kramer, Jim Harbaugh, Kerry Collins, Kordell Stewart, Vinny Testaverde, Chris Chandler, Michael Vick, just to name a few.
and by the way, since 1985 the team with the better defense in the superbowl has won 18 times. so i guess defense does win championships
I might add that a lot of people in the media are saying that New Orleans is the #1 offense in the NFC. If you look at it in terms of total points scored, then New Orleans is #3. Not bad, not bad at all. Dallas was #2. Number one.............Chicago, with 454 points. The Bears can score in bunches too. The key is Rex Grossman. If he is hot, then the Bears will score. If Chicago's defense plays to form, then the Saints will have trouble. Weather can also be an issue. In my view this game is Chicago's to lose.
that's great stuff! maybe schatz can get together with larry johnson (who was suppose to run for 500 yds against the colts), ray lewis and the ravens d (who were going to "hurt" the colts) and they can come up with a formula to find out why the colts are in the afc championship game. keep picking them as the dawgs, and while you're figuring cute little # games, the colts will be on their way to miami. i'm sure they will be the dawgs there as well. go colts!
I`ve been hoping for a matchup with the bears since the Arizona game. They have even gotten worse since that game. I don`t see how anyone can be impressed with that team. The Saints are without a doubt the most talented and balanced team left. As far as the weather, how many cold weather games hve the bears played in this year? We have a quarterback, sorry Chicago.
I`ve been hoping for a matchup with the bears since the Arizona game. They have even gotten worse since that game. I don`t see how anyone can be impressed with that team. The Saints are without a doubt the most talented and balanced team left. As far as the weather, how many cold weather games hve the bears played in this year? We have a quarterback, sorry Chicago.
I`ve been hoping for a matchup with the bears since the Arizona game. They have even gotten worse since that game. I don`t see how anyone can be impressed with that team. The Saints are without a doubt the most talented and balanced team left. As far as the weather, how many cold weather games hve the bears played in this year? We have a quarterback, sorry Chicago.
I have been a Saints fan for more than 20 years and yes we have had some terrible teams. Even when they made it to the playoffs before it was only a prayer that they might win. However, this year they have way more weapons on offense than Chicago can handle.Then you say the defence is subject well this team has more heart than any team left. Groosman better bring his A game cause anything short we be another Dallas type blowout. New Orleans by 2 touches
I just happen to live in Baton Rouge and know for a fact that the Bears fear the Saints! Last year QB Kyle Orton is going out with my friends daughter. And it came from the horses mouth that they hoped they didn't have to play the Saints! Well so much for that We'll be in Chicago Sunday, Thanks for the tickets Kyle may the best team win!
It's going to get real ugly in Chicago. The Arizona game wasn't a fluke. New Orleans will pour it on and the Bears D will be in shock! Saints 45 Bears 17.
I am a Rams fan but the Colts are my 2nd favorite team. Since no one else has done so, I would like to point out that in week 9 the Colts beat the Pats at home, 27-20, limiting Brady to 201 yds. Peyton out-threw Brady by 125 yds and Marvin Harrison had 145 receiving yds. Dillon and Maroney only had 111 yds between them and now that the Colts run D has stiffened up I predict they will win by 10pts this time. Any takers? As for NO at Chi Town - NO will win by 13 easy. Grossman is too inconsitent, Bears have been struggling on both offense and defense. Brees has too many weapons.
Last edited by JKING72 on January 15th at 7:04 PM.
hey why not a Bears-Patriots match up? that would be a game to watch. Yeah the Bears lost in the regular season. so What? this is the playoffs. As for the New Orleans Saints, you play in a dome. Bring out the Chicago weather. Freezing temps. High winds. What could be better? I dont expect a dome team to come into the windy city in january and win. And for all the New Orleans Saints fans, you dont really like the team. You like the city. You are rooting for the city to win. Not the team. The city. You feel bad cause they got hit with a hurricane. Big deal. Its their own fault for choosing to live there.
I don't know about the rest of you but I think midshipman36 is out of line with those comments. You chose your team, they chose theirs. There is nothing wrong with backing the home team. I think there's a lot YOU can learn from N.O. fans.
I hope the Saints players are listening to and reading all the hype they are getting. Nobody says the bears have a chance even though they are the best team in the NFC and are actually favored to win the game. The Saints are going to come in to Chicago thinking they have already won and that is a dangerous mindset for any team. GO BEARS!
The thing about stats is....they are usually about as worthless as the person who has no social life who spent countless hours looking them up in the first place!!!!
Get a damn life dude!
I noticed your stats on the 93 Cowboys!! Check your stats...they won!!!!
Pats vs. Saints in SB41.....Saints 31 Pats 24
AND BY THE WAY MIDSHIPMAN....YOU ARE THE BIGGEST #### IN THE COUNTRY!
HAVE YOU EVEN GONE THEIR TO SEE FOR YOURSELF...SHOW SOME CLASS YOU CLASSLESS EXCUSE FOR A HUMANBEING!
Last edited by DefGard on January 15th at 7:40 PM.
midshipman36, I can definitely see what you mean about the advantage of an open stadium in Chicago in January. But don't dog the NO fans, even if they are rooting for their city rather than their team, what happened to them was a tragedy and not their fault. They aren't called disasters for the fun of it. If disasters were a normal thing and considered OK, then it would just be called "bad luck".
Go Colts!
Last edited by phialpharaider09 on January 15th at 7:38 PM.
The thing about NO is that when you take into account the geography of the location and the recent trend in temperature increase it is very likely that the same catastrophy will happen again in the not very distant future. I know that people can't choose where they are born and raised, but anybody who relocates to New Orleans is really rolling the dice. With that said, Midshipman36 brings up a good point but just said it the wrong way.
My prediction for the games. Bears 31, Saints 24.
Colts 28, Pats 21
I agree with Mandy.The Colts defense has been plagued with injuries all year. They've been missing key players, and even pro-bowlers.Their defense now is the closest they've been all year to being healthy. I agree with the saying "Defense wins Championships", but sometimes a great offense is also a great defense. The Colts offense has been carrying the team all year by scoring early, and keeping the ball away from the other team.And now that the offense is struggling in the playoffs, their defense is picking up their slack. That's why it's called a team sport.Every year, the colts have been eliminated from the playoffs by the team that ends up winning the SuperBowl.I think all the memories of dis-appointments will be the motovation they need, to beat their nemesis(Patriots).If they don't win, then I guess they just don't deserve to have a ring.
Oh yeah, MIDSHIPMAN36, "YOUR AN ####".
My predictions this week are IND-35,NE-21 and CHI-10,NO-21
Last edited by Coltsfan11 on January 15th at 8:02 PM.
Oh yeah, whoever researched these stats need to get head out of their butt. Because none of it counts and you should be writing about something that does.
There are problems with any place a person chooses to live. Hurricanes, Tornados, Earthquakes, Floods, Tsunamis, etc. We roll the dice every day we wake up and begin a new day. We roll the dice with every decision we make, not just in where we choose to live. I appreciate Bears1 for trying to see the best in midshipman36's comments and I can see where midshipman36 may have stated his/her thoughts before thinking them through. Maybe next time he or she should consider the audience they are addressing and their feelings. You can say all you want but nothing you can say will make a fan turn their back on their team. Regardless of who wins the NFC this year - watch out for the RAMS in '07!
Coltsfan11, as the games havnt been played yet what else are football analysts supposed to write about. No these stats don't determine the outcome of the games but just give a perspective of past performaces. I give them credit for the good research and notice they point out the anomoly of Baltimore losing in the playoffs when the statstics show they should have won. I hope the Colts beat the Pats this weekend and face the Monsters of the Midway in an epic superbowl.
Being a RAMS fan and Lovie Smith supporter (he should've been given the head coaching job in St. Louis and Martz should of went job huntin' sooner) I would be thrilled to see the Bears in the Super Bowl. Even though I want the Bears to beat the Saints, as the writers did - I have to make an educated decision and say, the Saints should win the match up pretty easily. It all depends on Sexy Rexy and everyone knows his inconsistency. He had a pretty decent game last week so that means he will most likely struggle this week. Just my 2 cents. schondor - you know what they say...any given Sunday...
Last edited by JKING72 on January 15th at 8:27 PM.
I don't know if you guys noticed it, but last weekend the commentators made a few comments about the Colts being "underdogs" and not liking it. In the interview with Manning after the game, he seemed visibly upset with the designation as a weak team. I don't have confirmation of this, but I was told that Vegas stats have the Colts favored by 3 points for the game. I think this is a shame. If Indy goes into the game thinking the world is looking at them as underdogs, it would motivate them even more. Every year before, they have been heavy favorites and have blown it. Maybe being underdogs is just what they need to get emotional and intense.
Oh, I also believe that not having to play in the snow in Foxboro will make a HUGE difference. Of course, then the nay-sayers will call Manning a fair-weather player who can't take harsh weather.
Either way, I was 50% in my predictions last week so I won't event attempt the call this week. I just know that Sunday is going to be one hell o####ood day for football fans!
I don't know if you guys noticed it, but last weekend the commentators made a few comments about the Colts being "underdogs" and not liking it. In the interview with Manning after the game, he seemed visibly upset with the designation as a weak team. I don't have confirmation of this, but I was told that Vegas stats have the Colts favored by 3 points for the game. I think this is a shame. If Indy goes into the game thinking the world is looking at them as underdogs, it would motivate them even more. Every year before, they have been heavy favorites and have blown it. Maybe being underdogs is just what they need to get emotional and intense.
Oh, I also believe that not having to play in the snow in Foxboro will make a HUGE difference. Of course, then the nay-sayers will call Manning a fair-weather player who can't take harsh weather.
Either way, I was 50% in my predictions last week so I won't event attempt the call this week. I just know that Sunday is going to be one hell o####ood day for football fans!
I don't know if you guys noticed it, but last weekend the commentators made a few comments about the Colts being "underdogs" and not liking it. In the interview with Manning after the game, he seemed visibly upset with the designation as a weak team. I don't have confirmation of this, but I was told that Vegas stats have the Colts favored by 3 points for the game. I think this is a shame. If Indy goes into the game thinking the world is looking at them as underdogs, it would motivate them even more. Every year before, they have been heavy favorites and have blown it. Maybe being underdogs is just what they need to get emotional and intense.
Oh, I also believe that not having to play in the snow in Foxboro will make a HUGE difference. Of course, then the nay-sayers will call Manning a fair-weather player who can't take harsh weather.
Either way, I was 50% in my predictions last week so I won't event attempt the call this week. I just know that Sunday is going to be one hell o####ood day for football fans!
I don't know if you guys noticed it, but last weekend the commentators made a few comments about the Colts being "underdogs" and not liking it. In the interview with Manning after the game, he seemed visibly upset with the designation as a weak team. I don't have confirmation of this, but I was told that Vegas stats have the Colts favored by 3 points for the game. I think this is a shame. If Indy goes into the game thinking the world is looking at them as underdogs, it would motivate them even more. Every year before, they have been heavy favorites and have blown it. Maybe being underdogs is just what they need to get emotional and intense.
Oh, I also believe that not having to play in the snow in Foxboro will make a HUGE difference. Of course, then the nay-sayers will call Manning a fair-weather player who can't take harsh weather.
Either way, I was 50% in my predictions last week so I won't event attempt the call this week. I just know that Sunday is going to be one hell o####ood day for football fans!
maybe my comments were out of line. but i dont think so. I stand by what I say. I am biased on this one. I am a bears fan. I love the team and the city. New Orleans has a great story behind them. That story is going to end on Sunday. The Saints have been driven by their fans, the fans that they wont have on Sunday because the game is at Soldier Field in Chicago. The elements. New Orleans did not have to go through those elements during the regular season. Even look at their schedule.
The odds for each game favor the home team by 3 points. Home field advantage = 3 points. Take away the home field advantage of the Bears/Colts and you have two games with equal spreads. Hampon_sic is right in that we may be in store for two very good games. I think in these type of matchups it comes down to what team is the most prepared and can keep their emotions under control.
I wouldn't count out "who dat" fans from being at the game. New Orleans isn't all that far away - you might be surprised at the turn out. Take this game for example - the Rams hosted the Chiefs during the regular season (and while these are cross town rivals the point I'm trying to make is that you never know) - and there were more Chiefs fans in the Edward Jones Dome than there were Rams fans. I've been to games at Arrowhead and they are loud - but when those fans are under a dome - it's even louder. Don't count on the weather, the lack of a dome, or home team advantage in this match up. It will be a good game and I'll be happy with either team winning. Not so with the AFC matchup.
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