Bob in Seattle: I am ALREADY tired of sports-writers saying that the "home town
team's schedule for 2007 is really, really tough because the combined
record of the teams is XXX-YYY." AAGGHHHH!
I hope you'll be publishing 2007 Strength of Schedule for each team
based on the Final 2006 DVOA so the informed NFL fan can accurately
evaluate schedules for next season.
Aaron Schatz: Your wish is my command. Of course, DVOA this season doesn't tell you which teams will be good or bad next season -- a better strength of schedule will come after we do our team projections, and even that will be imperfect. But we can get a good idea of what's up by looking at the average 2006 DVOA of 2007 opponents. I'll use weighted DVOA so we account for the fact that teams like Tennessee are likely to be better next year.
When it comes to regular schedule, it isn't even close: The four hardest schedules in the league belong to the four teams in the AFC East. First, they have to play each other, and all four AFC East teams were in the Top 20 in weighted DVOA. They also have to play the AFC North, which had only one team with a weighted DVOA below zero (Cleveland), and the NFC East, which had only one team with a weighted DVOA below zero (Washington).
After that, the next hardest schedules belong to Indianapolis, Washington, and Cleveland.
The easiest schedules are generally teams in the NFC West. Arizona has the easiest by far, then San Francisco and St. Louis. They play the AFC North, but they also play the NFC South, which wasn't very good this year. Seattle's schedule comes out as much harder than the other teams because they have to play Chicago instead of a bad NFC North team. Other teams that come out with easy schedules are Chicago and all the NFC South teams -- since they get to play the NFC West.
I also split things into just offense and defense.
Hardest schedule of opposing offenses: Tennessee, New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo.
Easiest schedule of opposing offenses: Detroit, San Diego, Green Bay, Chicago, and Minnesota.
Hardest schedule of opposing defenses (Fantasy Warning!): San Diego, Detroit, Indianapolis, Washington. OK, maybe not so much of a warning.
Easiest schedule of opposing defenses (Fantasy Opportunity!): Arizona, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.
I am not sure how your system works, but next year Chicago's schedule is not the sixth worst schedule by any means.
Excluding the games against Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay, the bears play the Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, and Seahawks. If that is not a bunch of tough games, then i dont know what is.
Chitown, you're cherry picking. First of all, the Seahawks are not that good (benefited from luck and a really easy schedule to make the playoffs this year) and the Chiefs are getting old fast.
Secondly, the eight games you leave out (NFC North x2, Oakland, Washington) look really, really easy. Only @MIN looks like a remotely tough game at this point, maybe.
Bottom line - if Chicago beats the teams they should beat and loses every single game against a good team, they go 10-6 and win the division.
Are you doubling each division opponent, or just using a straight average of all opponents? It seems like Cleveland should be higher than any AFC East team, as they have to play all of the higher ranked AFC North teams twice and each of the four AFC East teams. Cleveland's AFC North opponents are all higher ranked than any of the AFC East opponents, except NE.
Countertorque, you're leaving out that the Browns get to play the NFC West teams while the AFC East has to play the NFC East. Would you rather play Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona or Dallas, Philadelphia, NY Giants, and Washington?
Call me crazy, but I'm predicting (at this way to early juncture) the NFC North to field four competitive teams next year, with the Vikings bringing up the rear.
Great post. I'd like to better understand how the 07 SOS compares to 06 SOS. For example, it's not as troublesome if your team will face a tough schedule if that schedule is not as tough as the 06 SOS. Is it possible to add the 06 SOS to the post.
Second, it would be great to understand the magnitute of the difference. Is it possible to take the 06 VOA (not DVOA) and adjust for the 07 opponents instead of the 06 opponents. It seems like this is something that Aaron would need to do as DVOA is a play-by-play comparsion. We can't just multiply 06 VOA by the 07 VOA for opponents.
I'd love to see how much teams move up and down the DVOA ratings.
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