Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter
about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall
getting in. We feel that Newman does an
excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever
receiver he's been assigned to. He
doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he
doesn't give up big plays.
Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?
Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl
selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have
been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to
block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is
an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming
months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are
effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running
backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who
is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's
not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact
that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average
and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.
Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data
from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so
far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season
you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of
salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties
yet.
But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't
come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has
given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted
passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly
better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted,
that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than
at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner,
Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since
we have different amounts of games charted for each team.
Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006
you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall
was emphatically not.
Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics,
based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30
passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays
that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of
yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)
32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%
The other number listed is number of charted passes. First
of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the
cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted
passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because
Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong,
wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl
team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't
include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous
level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played
so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he
got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on
the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't
live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some
guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by
our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as
a weakness.
The top 10 in yards per play:
36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5
These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W.
McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at
the end of the year.
I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his
amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the
Carolina
rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this
incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I
would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop
Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents
throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have
been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last
year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was
as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat
Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.
To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far
by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:
22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
24-T.Law KC 35 37%
27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%
And then yards per pass:
22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3
You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty
Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens
in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too
-- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.
Charles Tillman is not only having his best year. He was one of the biggest pro bowl snubs this year. He was on centerstage on a Sunday night when he was called out by a certain receiver on the Giants, and P-Nut answered the call, and then some.
His run support has been better than good and his ball stripping abilities are tops in the league.
Being a Panthers fan, it is going to pain me immensely to have to say this, but you're wrong about DeAngelo Hall. At least somewhat (he *is* an overhyped loudmouth). While he does get burned (somewhat frequently this year) against receivers, you have to take into account the big picture. Atlanta regularly employs zone coverage schemes which depend heavily on reliable safety help over the top. DeAngetoast has admitted to being greedy and trying to jump routes for the big play, but given the liability within the remaining Falcons secondary, that shouldn't come as a surprise. D. Hall does get beat in man coverage, but again you will notice that he almost always lacks the safety help other corners in the league get. His technique isn't necessarily bad (you would know this if you watched the games objectively instead of just going on what the talking heads are saying) but it certainly could use some seasoning. Deion Sanders and Champ Bailey have both said he will be the greatest cornerback in the game. I think they might know a thing or two about the position.
Everyone knows that the DVOA system is completely wrecked to begin with (the weekly rankings over the past couple of years have been laughable at best), but you could at least take the time to educate yourself in the game of football rather than assume that numbers will always tell the whole story.
About time somebody gave Adam "Pacman" Jones some love. The guy has had some bad moments off-the-field, but his impact on the field should have warrented him Pro Bowl consideration this year. He's a Top 5 cover man and the best returner in the league not named Devin Hester!!
Terrible Newman has his days but if you combined int, passes defenced and total yardage allowed into a sort of passer rating type of stat, maybe these would be more accurate. Pacman is what Newman should be or what the'Boys thought he would be.
I'm a panther's fan, and the fact that gamble is on the tops list nullifies this garbage. The panthers secondary was not the problem.. it was GAMBLE, who cant cover ANYTHING. This guy questions richard marshall, but marshall was the best corner on our team next to the injured ken lucas and SHOULD have made the probowl if you compare stats to dhall. I do however agree that hall is overrated. He catches tip interceptions and hail mary's before halftime. Example.. against the saints bree's threw a hail mary and instead of knocking it down hall tried to pad his stats and the saints receiver caught the ball for a score. Typical DHall Garbage.
I'm a panther's fan, and the fact that gamble is on the tops list nullifies this garbage. The panthers secondary was not the problem.. it was GAMBLE, who cant cover ANYTHING. This guy questions richard marshall, but marshall was the best corner on our team next to the injured ken lucas and SHOULD have made the probowl if you compare stats to dhall. I do however agree that hall is overrated. He catches tip interceptions and hail mary's before halftime. Example.. against the saints bree's threw a hail mary and instead of knocking it down hall tried to pad his stats and the saints receiver caught the ball for a score. Typical DHall Garbage.
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