This is the second year of the Football Outsiders game charting project, where we have an army of volunteers charting new stats during games that aren't kept in the standard play-by-play. We can't use these stats much during the season, because the game charting lags behind the actual games by at least a week, usually more. But now that we have eight weeks mostly charted, I thought it would be fun to look at some of the data to see what we can find.
We'll start with yards per pass allowed by defensive backs. This is one of two stats we used to track DBs in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. The other one was Stop Rate, or the percentage of passes against a defensive back that were successful. Both stats are useful -- for example, in Indianapolis, Nick Harper has a great yards per pass allowed and a terrible Stop Rate, while Jason David has a good Stop Rate and awful yards per pass allowed. Harper gives up more first downs, but when David gets beat, he gets beat BADLY.
Keep in mind that this data is really preliminary. Really, really preliminary. A number of games
from Weeks 4-8 still aren't finished, and this doesn't include Weeks 9-10 at
all. These numbers include passes that are incomplete for a lot of reasons that
have nothing to do with the defensive backs, although we've removed
quarterbacks hit while throwing and passes tipped/batted down at the line. Also
remember that there isn't much difference between being ranked first and being
ranked ninth -- the difference is between being ranked in the top ten vs. the
bottom half of the league, or something like that.
That being said, let's look at yards per pass allowed,
according to our charters. Here are the
top dozen defensive backs so far with at least 10 passes charted. The numbers
represent charted passes and net yards per pass.
43-T.Polamalu PIT 12 1.8
38-T.Poole OAK 14 2.1
42-D.Sharper MIN 12 3.0
25-K.Rhodes NYJ 15 3.9
20-B.Dawkins PHI 18 3.9
22-F.Thomas NO 43 4.0
25-A.Cromartie SD 17 4.2
28-L.Bodden CLE 23 4.3
40-M.Williams CIN 12 4.3
21-B.Pool CLE 10 4.4
24-M.Huff OAK 10 4.4
That's certainly a mix of surprises and non-surprises. Let's
start with the non-surprises., We've written many times that Leigh Bodden is
one of the top corners in the league, and the most ignored by the press. Tory
Polamalu is good and rarely plays deep, a good combination for this stat.
Darren Sharper was near the top for safeties last year. Dawkins is a Pro
Bowler. Below this list but still in the top 20 are Champ Bailey, Adrian
Wilson, Deltha O'Neal, and Asante Samuel.
Now the surprises. Tyrone Poole???? Yes, really. We made fun
of Oakland for picking up the veteran
cornerbacks who sucked in New England last year, but actually only Duane Starks
sucked last year -- Poole was just injured. I
doubt he's really going to be this good all year, but this is not an issue of Poole only playing short or something -- three of the
incompletes are passes of 30 yards or more. And he's allowing less than three
yards after catch on the few completes he has allowed, none of which went more
than five yards in the air. Seriously.
Let's see who else -- New
Orleans should be happy to get Fred Thomas back from
his hamstring injury. Thomas also did far better than Mike McKenzie in this
stat for 2005. Yes, Jets safety Kerry Rhodes did well in this stat last year
too, believe it or not. Antonio Cromartie really is having a shockingly good
rookie year, and he's not the only rookie that we were completely wrong about
-- Donte Whitner is in the top 20 too. Mea culpa. Michael Huff is also playing
well, and Brodney Pool is another part of the emerging Cleveland defense.
OK, now the flip side.
27-R.Whitaker MIN 11 15.4
21-O.Atogwe STL 10 14.6
22-S.Rolle BAL 29 14.2
20-M.Adams SF 16 14.1
23-J.Phillips TB 14 13.1
22-M.Manuel GB 13 12.8
32-M.Lewis PHI 14 12.6
20-E.Reed BAL 11 12.4
26-D.Landry BAL 12 12.2
26-E.Wilson NE 16 12.1
What the hell are all these Ravens doing here? Aren't they
the best defense in football so far? Remember -- this doesn't include the game
against Tennessee, and every Baltimore game from Week 1-8 is fully charted
except for portions of Week 4. I seriously have no idea what's up here. Reed
was very good in this stat last year. Samari Rolle was much better than Chris
McAlister last year, but this year, McAlister is allowing just 6.2 yards per
pass. We have 22 of 29 passes with Rolle in coverage listed as complete,
including a 72-yard touchdown to Steve Smith, a 58-yard touchdown to Braylon
Edwards, a 47-yard touchdown to Marques Colston. One of the two interceptions
was actually by Bart Scott, and three of the five incompletes are listed as
drops!
Is Rolle just losing it? It seems like it should be a fluke,
but the cornerback numbers are a lot easier to trust than the safety numbers,
because there are so many more passes charted with cornerbacks as the defenders
in coverage. I think everyone else on that list is a safety. Other cornerbacks
who do poorly in this stat are Terry Cousin, Gary Baxter
(surprise!), Brian Williams (also surprise!), Ahmad Carroll (completely not a surprise!) and Tory James. At least
quarterbacks taking on Cincinnati
know who they should be throwing on.
By the way, Dallas
safety Pat Watkins barely misses the list because he only has nine charted
passes, but he allowed a mind-blowingly awful 21.6 yards per pass. Has he
considered becoming a linebacker, perhaps?
All good questions and I hope Aaron answers 'em. And the point about it not being usable week to week due to incompleteness is well taken. But imagine how useful such data could be for NFL coaches -- and journalists trying to cover the NFL intelligently -- when it IS complete!
mtcmtc33, those are good questions. You could have just asked them in your first post. By the way, could you tell me when incomplete data became worth less than no data at all?
Wow - is the 43 for the number of Fred Thomas's charted passes right? Just checking, since it's way more than anyone else in the top 10. If true, that's some sick play from the unknown Thomas.
The one big problem with DB stats is that the best DBs force passes not to be thrown their way. I would think you would need coach's film to accurately chart number of plays with "good coverage" or some such. In the case, then, of a DB with relatively limited chances, his numbers might be skewed by a few bad plays (on a slippery field, perhaps, or, say, a game against the Colts). Does the charting project attempt to "cover" this ground at all?
as a las vegan and a recreational better all stats are meaningful.. keep it up ... i am workin on qb's and third down efficiency.. i think this is the big stat and a gimme for winning in big games.. check it out ;and don't be afraid to enter new areas .. i am da big cat...
Having watched every Jaguars game this year, Brian Williams being high on the poor list is not a surprise. He has been beaten badly a couple of times (though he has played well most of the time). But man, when he gets beat, he gets beat often with no safety help up top (a la the Redskins OT game-winning TD where the safety went for the INT, missed, and ran right out of bounds).
I think I'm tired of hearing about the "bend but don't break" defense. no one plays prevent as their base i dont understand how allowing an offense to consume nine minutes in a fifteen play drive that ends in a field goal is a good thing, it just means you're defense is below average and can't stop on third down
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