Now let's look at another team where our numbers disagree not
only with public perception but with all other numbers. How on earth can the
Denver Broncos -- who have allowed only one touchdown all season -- rank first
in fewest points allowed and third in fewest yards allowed, but 11th in
defensive DVOA?
Just like with the New England
offense, we first have to look at the issue of schedule. But Denver's defensive DVOA is actually better
than their non-adjusted VOA. They aren't ranked 11th because of an easy
schedule.
The main reason why our numbers disagree with Denver's totals is so
blatantly obvious that you'll smack yourself for not thinking of it. The
Broncos have only played four games. It's easier to allow fewer points and
yards when you've played fewer games. This isn't such a big deal with points,
as only the Bears have allowed fewer points per game. But while the Broncos are
third in total yards allowed, they are 12th in yards allowed per game -- lower
than their rank in defensive DVOA.
The next question, I guess, is "why are the Broncos
better at preventing points than preventing yards?" The answer is that so
far, the Denver
defense is absurdly good in the red zone, and it has the best red zone DVOA in
the league. The Broncos have allowed just the one touchdown, but they've also
allowed just three first downs. Quarterbacks are 5-for-18 with an interception
and -- if you count 14 yards Marc Bulger lost due to intentional grounding -- a
grand total of 10 passing yards.
The Broncos defense ranked 17th in the red zone last year.
They are probably better than that this year, but not this much better. The Denver red zone defense
has been artificially boosted by the legendary red zone ineffectiveness of
Scott Linehan. Linehan's Vikings teams always suddenly lost the ability to gain
yardage in the red zone, his Dolphins team last year was awful in the red zone,
and this year's Rams are a festival of field goals. Jeff Wilkins had six of them in that Rams upset in Week 1.
It's also worth noting that, although Denver doesn't have many takeaways this year,
those takeaways have generally come at the end of very long drives. Larry
Johnson fumbled at the six-yard line after a 60-yard Kansas City drive. Damon Huard had that wacky
"pass to himself" fumble after a 37-yard drive. Steve McNair's
interceptions last week followed drives of 65, 39, and 21 yards. So except for
that last interception, the Broncos were giving up a lot of offense but no points. If the Broncos keep giving up long drives, some of them are
going to end up in the end zone instead of with turnovers.
The good news for Broncos fans? Maybe they don't really have
the best defense in the league, but there's no way their offense is as bad as
it looked early in the season (or as bad as it looked against the excellent Baltimore defense). This
team is going to end the season a lot more balanced, but they'll be in the same
place they are now: the playoff hunt.
Denver's Defense is better than any team in the league other than chicago and maybe baltimore. Your DVOA system is ok, but what it lacks is human knowlege and perception. Denver's D has been great in the red zone, and I dont care who they have played. You can't use if then buts all the time.
NFL Guru maybe you should reread the article before you make your compliant next time since the writer doesn't claim that thier ranking is due to an easy schedule "They aren't ranked 11th because of an easy schedule." And I don't understand how you can argue against the author about how good the denver redzone defense has been when the author has already stated, "the Denver defense is absurdly good in the red zone, and it has the best red zone DVOA in the league."
I don't know how you can argue against the point the author makes about the effect of having one less game played has on the conventional stat of leading the league in fewest points allowed and third in fewest yards allowed. Both cumlative stats.
The only area of contention I see is in the second to last paragraph where he discusses how although Denver has had relatively few takeaways on defense, these takeaways are generally occuring at the end of long drives. How do we know that this is that uncommon (are there stats that support this), and what is the avg. for something like this...without that information it seems like a little bit of "piling on" done by the author to prove his point (not that he may be inaccurate though).
hansel, it's entirely possible that NFL Guru's contention was that the Rams' inability to score in the red zone against everyone shouldn't detract from the Broncos' ability to prevent the Rams from scoring in the red zone. That's still wrongheaded, but at least it would suggest he read the article.
Thanks for trying to explain that Aaron.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the idea was to explain the deviance between a bend but do not break defense and instead I felt you were rather justifying the system with the number of games played.
I do not care how poor an offense is in the red zone going 0-5 is an excellent accomplishment considering they were handed the ball twice in six plays on the second and third possession getting three points. Therefore, the Linehan explanation seems very shaky due to its subjective nature of past performance with another team.
Two of Denver’s young players made huge mistakes in those first three games. DJ Williams missed several cut backs and got stiff armed from Stephen Jackson or he gets 65 rushing yards in that game.
Darrent Williams was picked on to the extent of 33 completions in 46 opportunities including 9 first down catches on those seven scoring drives that started outside FG range. That was through 3 games. Sure Bailey is awesome, but if Darrent was just average to replacement value the defense would have been even more stingy in Yards and more importantly points allowed.
Those two young players were getting abused by not executing their role in the system, but you put up something about Linehan’s offense trending from MIA as proof? I expected better analysis than that.
Also, you failed to mention WHY denver does not have more takeaway’s this year. They have dropped 8 potential INT’s including 4 against Brady and the PI against Caldwell on the lone TD drive where Bailey was poised to INT that second play throw.
As for the Red Zone, they have not allowed thirty rushing yards either in 11 possessions and ZERO rushing TD’s. With the DL being the biggest question mark, they have been superior in performance in the red Zone. The majority of Red Zone TD’s last year were Runs and through four games they have zero.
I believe the scheme change has allowed some more plays to be made between the 20’s as they try to surrender fewer big plays and lock in their zone coverages in the intermediate range. They have allowed a ton of passing yards underneath and almost every play that has been completed was completed within 15 yards of the LOS. The only 40+ yard play was the result of Blitzing into a screen pass and Missing the tackle until 40 yards later. (DJ Williams was one of those too.)
This is my frustration with DVOA. It only measures results without explanation. Sure, DEN has surrendered a lot more Yardage than other good defenses but the numbers only tell part of the story. As well as the defense has played overall, two young players have surrendered some key third down’s and a bunch of missed play yardage and that has brought the performance overall down.
I don't know if you frustration should be with DVOA exactly, but rather with Adam who may be simply using the numbers to make a suggestion that at times I might think is biased (was he trying to really trash the Denver Broncos, kinda comes across that way). The points you made about the impact of two young players on the defense being the culprits of Denver's lower DVOA should be considered as well. Maybe its not the "key" turnovers that Denver has turned at the end of long opponent offensive drives, but rather these two young players that are the primary reason for the lower DVOA. Point is, if Denver continues to play defensively as they have so far, its just a matter of time before some teams start scoring (even if its just luck), Denver may still excell at red zone defense rank high in this regard, but the team is not going to go the rest of the season giving up as few points per game as they have so far...which is ok, they're still going to be good, the whole league has to regress toward the mean as the season goes on.
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