My pick will still remain as Internaz ionale to beat either Barcelona or an English team in the Final in Moscow.
Draw for first KO stage. (group
winners play away leg first)
Arsenal v AC MILAN – possibly the
plum tie of the round for the neutral
BARCELONA v Celtic – the Scots have a
punchers’ chance with their good home record
CHELSEA v Olympiakos – much too one sided to
be really good for the neutral.
INTERNAZ IONALE v Liverpool – valiant scrappers come an Italian cropper.
Lyon v MANCHESTER UNITED – One sided, to the
maximum.
PORTO
v Schalke 04 – who knows, both sides have surprised so it could go either way,
definitely one to watch for the uncertainty factor.
REAL MADRID v Roma – possibly the
plum tie of the round (anyone who knows La Liga well should speak up on this
one)
SEVILLA v Fenerbache – Closer
then some may think as one game is in Turkey, but you figure two
consecutive UEFA Cups will be the thumb on the scales.
(Group winners in CAPS)
The odds are for winning it all;
first is the odds from August; second from before the draw; finally the odds after
the draw.
Liverpool
**9/1 – 11/1 – 14/1
– oops! the bookies don’t discount the reds but understand the enormity of
their task.
Porto
9/1 – 50/1 – 40/1
– getting possibly the easiest draw of the first KO round has improved the odds
but still a long shot.
Chelsea
6/1 – 8/1 – 6/1
– dropped back down, probably due to an easier draw.
Schalke 04
40/1 – 40/1 – two
teams in the same game have their odds shortened; indecisiveness from the
bookies.
Real Madrid
9/1 – 8/1 – 8/1
– stays the same; they have a really tricky and tough to call tie.
Olympiakos
150/1 – 50/1 – 100/1
– Someone thinks they have a punchers chance against Chelsea, still a long shot though
AC Milan
8/1 – 10/1 – 10/1
– The tie against a formidable team hasn’t shortened their odds, much
uncertainty with this tie.
Celtic
100/1 – 50/1 – 80/1
– big increase so the bookies think Strachan’s players have only a hope in
hell.
Barcelona
9/2 – 4/1 – 7/2
– they drop again, due to their opponents and smart bookies.
Lyon
18/1 – 20/1 – 25/1
lengthened again due to superiorly perceived opponents.
Manchester United
6/1 – 5/1 – 5/1
– stays the same, this suggests a win against Lyon but not anything more than a
decent chance to win it all.
Roma
21/10 – 16/1 – 20/1
– the bookies see them beating Arsenal when hell freezes over.
Internaz ionale
8/1 – 9/1 – 9/1
– no change which suggests the bookies like the Italians but aren’t quite
convinced.
Fenerbache
200/1 – 50/1 – 50/1
– the Turkish side could cause an upset but do YOU really think so against
strong Spanish opposition?
Arsenal
8/1 – 8/1 – 8/1
– stays the same; they like the gunners but don’t want the odds to suggest
anything more than a decent chance.
Sevilla
20/1 – 10/1 – 10/1
- stays the same, they like the Spaniards but don’t want the odds to suggest
anything more than a decent chance
Remember the bookies aren’t
exactly trying to pick the winner. They
are trying to make money, so the odds reflect their understanding of the
betting market and their expertize at fleecing suckers.
Expect the longer odds to change
if that team does well in the first game.
The stronger teams’ odds will remain fairly static at the early stages
of the KO rounds as the bookmakers realize the games are actually too tough to
call with any certainty.
**All
Ladbrokes odds are from 31/08/2007 and then 20/12/2007 and finally 23/12/2007.
My Picks.
Internaz ionale – unless Liverpool drastically upgrade several aspects of their personnel
and play the Internaz ionale Machine will roll them over.
Chelsea – too much for the Greeks; even with
a (possibly) depleted side.
Roma – they have managed to
overcome the toughest early Serie A schedule in many a season and still remain
second. Deceptively tough.
Porto
– too much for the Germans, you would think.
AC Milan – Cesc will shine, but then so will
Pirlo, Ambrosini, Seedorf, Kaka and Inzaghi.
Sevilla – Ole Ole Ole Ole! the
move to this stage of the Champions League will not be tougher than the UEFA
Cup (yet!).
Manchester United – they win when they play
less then good, very strong with possible January additions.
Barcelona – pushed hard by the Scots but the
class up front will tell in the end, they’ll do it with a draw and a tight win
at the Nou Camp.
