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CappersLobby Forum - Sports Handicapping - Sports Betting - Service Plays 07/05/08
Jul 05, 2008 | 11:41AM | report this

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Jim Feist

BLUE JAYS / ANGELS UNDER

A pair of aces on the mound here in Roy Halladay and John Lackey. Both are workhorses and on a roll. Halladay has a 1.99 ERA his last three starts and is leading the league in innings pitched. Lackey has a 0.74 ERA his last three starts and just 1.44 for the season. The Angels have been an under the total machine this season with that weak offense and great pitching, starting 52-29 under. Look for that trend to continue with these two aces throwing goose eggs. Play the Blue Jays/Angels under the total.

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Dave Cokin

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

Zack Greinke is doing a stellar job for the Royals, and when he's on his game he's tough as nails. But there just doesn't seem to be a way to beat this Rays team at home these days, and they usually garner lots of support when Andy Sonnanstine takes the mound. Considering how dominating this team is at home, I see the number here being too low and I'll look for the Rays to win yet again.

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Marc Lawrence

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The Brewers take on the Pirates in Game Two of this three-game set in Milwaukee when Dave Bush battles Pat Maholm in Suds City tonight. Bush has been much stronger at home this season with a 3.18 ERA as opposed to a 7.11 ERA in the road in 2008. On the flip side, Maholm's 5.53 ERA on the road is more than two full runs worse than his 3.47 ERA at home this year. Stay at home with the steadier serves of Bush and the Brewers as Milwaukee improves to 12-4 at home on Saturdays here this evening.

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Ross Benjamin

ATHLETICS / WHITE SOX UNDER

The White Sox starter Gavin Floyd has been lights out in 9 home starts this season posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Oakland starter Greg Smith has seen just 1 of his last 12 starts go over the total. In his last 3 starts on the road Smith has posted a brilliant 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both of these teams possess two of the better bullpens in baseball. This series has seen 7 of the last 8 games played go under the total. Play on under the total as my free selection of the night.

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Terron Chapman

ST LOUIS CARDINALS -109

Kyle Lohse will take the ball from manager Tony Larussa Saturday afternoon with hopes he can avenge his worst loss of the season. We'll play on him and his teammates to do so as they try to keep pace with the division leading Chicago Cubs in the second game of their weekend series. Lohse was tagged for 9 hits and 8 earned runs in 6 innings pitched in the Cardinals 9-3 loss to the Cubbies back on May 3rd. We'll assume it was just one of those days as Lohse has been solid for the Cardinals all season. The right hander who signed as a free agent over the summer is 10-2 on the season with a 3.67 ERA. He has been a pleasant suprise for a Cardinals pitching staff decimated by injuries. That loss is the one blip on his home record this season as he is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Busch stadium this year. The Cardinals are 8-1 in his last 9 starts. We expect him to rebound with a strong perfomance against the Cubbies giving his team a chance at the win. Ted Lilly was the winnig pitcher that day in May and will oppose Lohse once again as he takes the mound for the Cubs. Lilly is 4-3 on the road this season with a 4.19 ERA to boot. His team is 5-4 in his road starts this year. Lilly might struggle some this afternoon against a Cardinals team hitting .319 agaisnt southpaws the last 10 games. Even with last night's win the Cubs are still a below average team on the road. They are 18-25 on the road this year and 5-16 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals have rebounded well in this spot all season and are 13-1 in game 2's this year. Expect that trend to hold up this afternoon.

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Jeff Benton

RANGERS / ORIOLES OVER

These teams pounded out 14 runs and 21 hits yesterday, and with the pitchers scheduled in this one, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those numbers get eclipsed here. First off, Baltimore’s Brian Burres sports a 5.09 ERA in his 15 starts this season, and that ERA jumps to 6.18 in his eight outings at Camden Yards (six of which have gone over the total). As for Rangers Scott Feldman, he is coming off three straight decent starts. But the fact remains he’s got a 6.00 ERA in six road starts this season. Also, he hasn’t lasted a full six innings in any of his last three starts. You have to figure that trend will continue tonight, and if it does, that means the Rangers’ bullpen – one of the worst in baseball with a 5.06 ERA – will be called upon for extra duty. And as it is, Feldman is going up against a Baltimore offense that’s cookin’ right now (the O’s have tallied five runs or more in the first five games of this current homestand, scoring 34 runs in all over this stretch). And of course, the Rangers, with Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, etc., certainly know how to make it around the bases. In fact, no team in baseball has scored more runs than Texas. Finally, with yesterday’s game easily topping the posted total, nine of Baltimore’s last 12 games at Camden Yards have gone "over." Make it 10 of 13!

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Matt Rivers

LA ANGELS

Roy Halladay is obviously great and laying money to him is not the easiest decision to make but right now John Lackey is probably the best pitcher on the planet and can easily shut down this struggling Toronto offense. The Jays have flat out had a tough tough season. Their pitching is very good and should have been very good with Halladay, AJ Burnett, Shawn Marcum and a few others along with BJ Ryan closing things out but the offense has been underachieving and flat out awful. Alex Rios and Vernon Wells should be in the midst of breakout seasons but we have seen anything but and all in all this squad is just not very good right now. Cito Gaston was brought in to try and change the losing culture but the team has continued to play sluggishly and in a division with Boston, Tampa and the Yankees are all done and they know it. Lackey has been phenomenal this season even with missing the first month on the dl. The righty has not missed a beat since start number one and was money in that last outing at Chavez Ravine completely outclassing the Dodgers in that 1-0 win. K-Rod came in for the one out save there and I can easily see him not even have to get ready here as Lackey gets that one extra out and completes this thing in possible shutout fashion. Vlad and the offense certainly have had their share of struggles but they should be able to plate a few here at home and I'm not so sure that the scuffling Jays will be able to muster all that much on the road, across the country and against a superstar in Lackey. In the end I'm looking for a 4-0, maybe 4-1, type of an Anaheim victory!

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Jake Timlin

MINNESOTA TWINS

Big winner on the Twins yesterday as my top rated selection I now look towards Minnesota for an easy freebie winner today. After thanks to the Indians continuing to suck having now lost their last 6 games and 12 of their last 16 it’s pretty easy to go against the Tribe right now. Especially when you factor in that Minnesota is red hot winning their last 4 and 17 of their last 21. Even better it’s the Twins who will have the edge on the mound as Slowey 2-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.46 goes up against Laffey who is winless over his last 3 starts. Flat out the Twins are playing their best baseball of the season and I see them continuing to shine today at home against a struggling Cleveland team.

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Chip Chirimbes

CHICAGO CUBS

Kyle Lohse (10-2, 3.67 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals since they signed him during spring training, he is 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA in five starts against Chicago. The right-hander allowed a season-high eight runs and nine hits in six innings of a 9-3 loss to the Cubs on May 3 as Fukudome went 3-for-5 with two RBIs off him. Lohse, 7-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his last eight starts overall, allowed an unearned run and five hits in seven innings of a 7-1 victory over the New York Mets on Monday, giving him one more victory than he had for Cincinnati and Philadelphia in 2007. The Cubs counter with Ted Lilly (9-5, 4.56), who is looking for his fifth straight winning decision in his second matchup this season against Lohse. Lilly, 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA versus the Cardinals, lasted seven innings in that May contest at Busch. The left-hander - 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last five outings - gave up seven hits and both runs in eight innings of a 9-2 win at San Francisco on Monday.

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Bobby Maxwell

BOSTON RED SOX +120

The Red Sox have taken the first two of this series and now they get to face Mike Mussina who they have absolutely dominated recently. We'll back Boston in this one as they send youngster Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.75 ERA) to the mound at Yankee Stadium. Boston won the first game 7-0 on Thursday and then won Friday's contest 6-4. They've won five of the last six meetings this season and three straight in New York. The Yankees have lost four of five on this homestand and five of six overall. Mussina (10-6, 3.87) has struggled a bit lately and New York has lost three of his last four starts. Against the Red Sox, the Yankees have lost his last five outings as he's given up 23 earned runs in 26.1 innings of work. For his career, Mussina is 19-17 with a 3.80 ERA in 54 starts against Boston. Masterson gave up four runs on five hits in six innings of work Monday when the Red Sox lost 5-4 in Tampa Bay. But Boston is 5-3 in his eight starts this season and he's kept them in the game in each of his outings. The Yankees are in one of their modes of struggling offense right now and the Red Sox aren't having any trouble scoring runs. Plus they love to hit off Mussina. Let's play the Sox to win their third straight in this series. Play Boston.

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Greg Daraban

FLORIDA MARLINS

Thursday Col won 6-5, Friday Col won 18-17 in a slugfest. Rookie Tucker 2-2, De La Rosa 2-4. With the fish in the hunt they will get this 3rd game of this 4 game set. SS Hanley Ramiez continues to impress with the glove and the bat 303. Take 911 Florida Marlins as my free selection for Saturday.

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Rob Vinciletti

CHICAGO CUBS +101

On Saturday afternoon the free play for Saturday is on the Chicago Cubs game 901 at 3:55 Eastern. The pitching matchup in this game does slightly favor the Cards. Lohse has been better this year Than Lilly. But teams are hitting 27 points lower vs Lilly than they are vs Lohse. The reason for the play though is the Cubs are a remarkable 13-0 this year after 2 or more games scoring 3 runs or less. In a game that virtually a pickem ill lean with the Cubs.

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Alex Smart Sports

MINNESOTA TWINS -125

The Minnesota Twins enter into todays mlb action on fire, having won 14 of their 16 overall, and 11 of their L13 at home in the Metrodome. Their opponents the Cleveland Indians are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , after losing their 7th straight game yesterday to the Twins by a lopsided 12-3 count. Kevin Slowey the Minnesota Twins starting right hander today against the visiting Cleveland Indians, enters this tilt, mimicking his teams successes, and is off his first career shutout on Sunday against the Brewers, allowing just three hits. It was the 24 year olds fourth consecutive quality start, which extended a 16-inning scoreless streak, that has also seen him, over power and strike out 24 batters over a 29 inning stretch. Slowey has garnered a nifty 3-0 record along with a minuscule 0.93 ERA during that stellar span. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Tribe, rookie, Aaron Laffey (4-5,3.24 ERA)is currently not in good form, as is evident by a 0-2 record and slightly bloated 4.58 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has shown the ability to pitch out of jams, but I keep getting this feeling, his luck is soon to run out , and hes going to end up on the wrong side of a beat down. Final notes & Key Trends:Cleveland ha lost 21 of their 28 road games and are 8-23 in their 31 as underdogs. Twins are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. With both pitchers and both teams obviously moving in different directions, Im suggesting we go with the flow, and back the upward momentum of the red hot Twins in this spot. Play on the Minnesota Twins

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Sports Gambling Hotline

LA DODGERS -120

Tonight we come right back with those very same Dodgers as we like Los Angeles to once again have their way against the Giants. Barry Zito took yet another loss his last start, and is now 3-12 this year with an ERA of 5.99. Zito has already lost once this season to LA, and his team is just 1-3 this year in the season series. Los Angeles has won their last 4, and they are just 1/2-game behind the Diamondbacks for the top spot in the NL West. With the Dodgers owning a dominating 15-4 mark at San Francisco since the 2006 season, we have to side with the men in blue to extend their winning streak to 5 in a row this evening. Play on Los Angeles.

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Karl Garrett

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -125

Look for the White Sox to get a win tonight at home against an Oakland team that has won the first two of this holiday weekend four game set. Keep in mind that even with those two losses, Chicago is still 30-13 at home this season, and a large part of that succes is because of Gavin Floyd. Floyd takes the mound tonight with a 6-1 mark at US Cellular this season, and his ERA is a slender 2.87. I expect Floyd to get the Sox on board with another quality home start. Oakland had been slumping prior to hitting the Windy City, as they had lost 4 of 5 before taking the first two this weekend. The Athletics will go with Greg Smith who is coming off a complete game win at the Angels, but it is questionable whether he can turn the trick again on the road. I don't think he can! Roll with the Pale Hose in this one.

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Chris Jordan

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -130

Play the White Sox over the visiting Athletics Saturday night, as there shouldn't be any issue with Gavin Floyd toeing the rubber for us in this one. The crafty right-hander comes in off a solid showing looked Monday against the Indians, much better than he had in either of his previous two starts, as he struck out a career-high 10 batters. Anyone who watched his quality start against the Tribe saw the return of his offspeed command, as he his changeup was hitting the zone with ease. Also, Chicago comes in on winning runs of 5-0 in Floyd's last five home starts, 6-1 in his last seven starts overall and 7-2 in its last nine overall. On the other hand, the A's are 7-13 in their last 20 as an underdog and 1-4 in Greg Smith's last five starts as the pup. Take the South Siders in this one, as they'll roll the A's tonight.

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Jimmy The Moose

ATHLETICS / WHITE SOX UNDER

The A's have played under the total in 8 of their last 11 games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 vs. NL Central opponents. The under is 10-1-1 in Smith's last 12 starts. The A's have played the under in 7 of his last 8 road starts. The under is 7-1-1 in Smith's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 15-5 in the White Sox last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a left-handed starter. The team's have played the under in 7 of their last 8 meetings. The under is 5-0 in the A's last 5 trips to Chicago. Play the under.

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Black Widow Sports

DETROIT TIGERS -130

Detroit is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.700 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 17-3 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse over the last 3 seasons. As you can see, the Tigers clearly don't feel sorry for the worst starting pitchers in this league. Instead, they pound 'em like the #### they are. R.J. Dickey is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA in all home starts this year. Dickey will get pounded by a hot Tigers' lineup scoring 5.5 runs per game in night games this season. Detroit is 44-17 (+19.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Tigers on the Money Line.

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Info Plays

CLEVELAND INDIANS +117

Cleveland got it handed to them by Minnesota yesterday. The Indians threw one of their worst starters in Paul Byrd, but they come back today with one of their better starters in Aaron Laffey to try and revenge that loss. Laffey's 3.24 ERA in 12 starts this season ranks up there with the best on the Indians staff. Eric Wedge is 46-23 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season as the manager of Cleveland. The Indians know that if they are to get back into the AL Central race, they cannot afford to lose today's game to the Twins who are well ahead of them already. Bet Cleveland on the road. ----------------------------------------

John Martin

LA ANGELS -123

John Lackey has been virtually un-hittable this season. Yes, Roy Halladay has more than a handful of complete games, but his numbers don't match up with Lackey's. Lackey is 6-1 with a miniscule 1.44 ERA this year, 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home, and 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Lackey just keeps getting better as the season progresses. The Angels are 18-5 against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season. Anaheim is finding ways to win games by manufacturing runs and throwing another great starting pitcher each time out. Lackey is their Ace and he won't lose at home to the Blue Jays. Cash in with the Angels as the favorite.

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Jimmy Boyd

COLORADO ROCKIES -135

After a wild 18-17 win in game 2 of this series, I like the home Rockies to out slug the Marlins again today. The Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog, 1-4 in their last 5 road games, and 9-24 in their last 33 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 10-4 in their last 14 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher, and 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are finally starting to play some baseball. I expect them to put a lot of runs on the board again today on their way to victory.

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Jimmy Moore

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -120

Take the Phillies behind their big time lefty Moyer against the Metropolitans on Saturday night as my free selection. Good luck, JM.

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Stu Feiner

NY YANKEES

Have to like the Yankees to bounce back here tonight at home. They have had a tough stretch, but that is not new to this team in 2008. The Yankees have been up and down all season. Today they send their most reliable starter to the hill. It is hard to imagine that Mike Mussina would be the Yankees best starting pitcher this season but that is the truth. Mike Mussina has earned his ten wins this season. Mike has thrown 95.1 innings this season and has a whip under 1.24. Mike hasn’t bee getting lucky by any stretch of the imagination. In fact he has been very good. Mike Mussina has allowed more than four runs one time all season. In his last five starts he has allowed either 3, 2 or 1 in four of them. Mike feels rejuvenated. Mike is healthy and Mike knows how to beat the Red Sox. The Yankees still have a big offense and can put up a big total in any game. Mussina normally gets solid run support.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Orioles do not get enough credit. We have told you time and time before that the Orioles are a good play and especially at home. The Orioles are 25-14 at home. That is not a good record that is a great record. Remember that the Orioles play one of the toughest schedules in all of baseball. After all they play the: Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox time after time. Eric Hurley goes for the Rangers today. He has made just two starts on the road and four all season. Those two road starts were not good though. He has allowed 15 base runners in just 12 innings and allowed six earned runs. He also allowed a home-run in each of his starts. The Rangers have a big offense but the Orioles put runs on the board as well. Just look at last night’s game, the Orioles pounded out 12 hits and 10 runs. The Orioles will score runs again tonight.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The Athletics are a good baseball team. In fact they are right there in the AL West and have a shot at another division crown. The White Sox are still red hot though. The White Sox are another team that doesn’t get enough respect. Everyone thought the White Sox were dead after they lost that three game set to the Cubs in Wrigley. Since then the White Sox have been on a tear. They took two of three games against the Dodgers in LA. After that they went on to sweep the next two series. They swept their rival Chicago Cubs at home, and then swept the Indians at home. A loss or two against the Athletics does not change that this team is a very solid baseball team. Don’t forget that the White Sox have both offense and pitching. They rank first in pitching and they are sixth in runs scored. Put those two factors together and a great closer and it adds up to a lot of wins. Tonight behind Floyd the Sox will win again.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

What is there not to love about the Rays right now? How many people thought that they would be the best team in baseball on July 4 weekend? Yes you can all lie and say you did but we will just move past that. Tampa is not doing this with smoke and mirrors folks. They are this good. The Rays protect their home field. That is so important for a young team looking to get in to the playoffs. Overall they are 34-13 at home. 34-13!!! Twenty games over .500 is no easy accomplishment. The Rays are a balanced team. That is one of the reasons they haven’t had a long losing streak and why they are a first place team. They are fourth in the league in pitching and they are eighth in the league in runs scored. One last stat, they have 96 stolen bases. Remember that speed doesn’t slump.

MINNESOTA TWINS

How hot are the Twins right now? This is a team that is steam rolling through the American league. Tonight we get the Twins hottest pitcher. Kevin Slowey has been very reliable this season. Kevin has gone 2-0 in his last three starts. 21 innings pitched in those three starts and he has allowed just 14 hits. Over those 21 innings he has allowed just one earned run. Kevin has actually been great his last four starts. In his last four starts he has allowed a total of three runs. His last two starts he didn’t allow a single run. One road win against the Padres and a complete game shutout at home against the Brewers. Look for Kevin to keep the ball down in the zone and win another ball game at home.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Too good of a line to pass up here tonight in Anaheim. John Lackey has been great, but Roy Halladay is still the crème of the crop. Roy has been especially strong as of late. Roy’s last start was his best all-season. Roy and the Blue Jays were on the road but they got the job done. Roy went the distance for another complete game shutout. Roy threw nine innings, allowed just four hits, had six strikeouts and didn’t walk a batter. How about Roy’s control this season? Would you believe Roy has thrown 130 innings and walked just 19 batters all season. 106 strikeouts to 19 walks. Roy is one of the few pitchers that doesn’t mind being on the road. Roy has five road wins and an ERA of under 2.50 (2.43). He just doesn’t get intimated. He goes out there and wins ball games regardless of run support, regardless on location and regardless against the competition. Look for the Blue Jays to steal one here tonight.

DETROIT TIGERS

Look for the Tigers to bounce back here tonight. They had a tough game yesterday. They scored just one run and looked flat. There is a reason why that was the case though. Yesterday they faced Erik Bedard. Erik has electric stuff. A southpaw that is capable of shutting down any line-up. Tonight the Tigers are going to have a much easier shot at scoring runs. R.A. Dickey goes the Mariners tonight. R.A. is a converted knuckle-baller that gets hit hard. On top of allowing 54 hits in just 47 innings Dickey struggles with his control. On the season as a starter the Mariners have won just one of his five starts. Galarraga on the hand has been great for the Tigers. Armando is 7-2 and the Tigers are 11-2 in his thirteen starts. He has pitched 82 innings and allowed just 64 hits. He has electric stuff. He will shut down a weak line-up.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Solid match-up here tonight in Atlanta. It is hard to believe but Jo-Jo Reyes is the more reliable pitcher. Roy Oswalt is just 7-8 in 2008. In his 18 starts the Astros are just 8-10. The Braves on the other hand are an even 6-6 in Jo-Jo Reyes starts. Jo-Jo has not gotten the run support he has needed. He will get them tonight though. Roy is not the same pitcher as the Roy of "old". Roy has thrown 115 innings this season and he has allowed 132 hits. Those numbers are scary high for Roy. When Roy was dominating he was barely allowing a hit per inning. Roy’s strikeouts are also dramatically down. He has struck out 206, 184, 166 and 154 the last few years. This season he has just 94 in this 115 innings thrown. On the road Roy has his struggles. Roy is just 3-5 with an ERA in the mid 4’s. The Braves still have that power in their line-up.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The Brewers have already put their terrible loss behind them. On Thursday the Brewers lost their worst game all season. This was a team that was winning 5-0 in the bottom of the ninth inning in Arizona. It was a terrible loss, there is no denying that. The Brewers did the best thing though, they bounced back. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out 14 hits. Not only fourteen hits but they scored nine runs and hit two home-runs. The Brewers took advantage of two Pittsburgh Pirates errors. Paul Maholm is just an average starter for the Pirates. He is 5-5 on the season with a high earned run average. The Brewers bats are heating up and they will knock this guy out of the game early.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Mets just can’t figure it out right now. Last night they couldn’t win with their ace on the hill. Two nights ago they couldn’t win with their number two on the hill. Tonight they won’t win with there number three on the mound. John Maine has just been average this season. There was a lot made out of his spring and he could be a 20 game winner. Well John is just 8-6 on the season. The Mets are just 9-8 in his seventeen starts. On the other hand Jamie Moyer has been pitching and winning. The Phillies are 10-7 in his seventeen starts. Jamie has his best ERA since 2004. This guy just finds ways to win ball games. Jamie has three wins at home already this season. Tonight his record will improve to 8-6 and the Phillies will continue their winning ways against the lowly Mets.

CINCINNATI REDS

You have to look at Tim Redding from a step back. Sure Tim is 6-3 on the season. We are not here to knock him. Tim has been the Nationals best pitcher. He has already thrown 102 innings and he is the Nationals most reliable starter. He hasn’t been great lately though. Redding’s last start was a tough one. Time threw just five innings and allowed eight hits and four earned runs. Tim walked two batters and let up another long ball. The long ball has been a real problem with Tim this season. Heading to Cincinnati is not the place to help those long balls. Tim has let up 13 home-runs this season. The Reds took care of business yesterday. They will take care of business again tonight.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Jorge De La Rosa is better than his numbers indicate. This is a guy that has electric stuff. Jorge is a 6"1 left-hander that can flat out deal. He has thrown 48 innings on the season and he has 51 strikeouts. Just a few starts ago at home Jorge pitched against the Indians. Jorge went out there and throws six innings, allowed four hits, one walk and struck out ten batters. The start before that he faced one of the best teams in the league, the White Sox and threw five innings of just one hit ball. That included eight strikeouts. The Marlins are an ultra-aggressive baseball team folks. They are top three in the league in strikeouts. They will be free swinging here tonight in Colorado, especially after their outburst last night. The Rockies can still score. Just look at last night’s game. The Rockies scored in the first six innings of the ball game, and scored double-digit runs. Look for the Rockies to win again tonight.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Big game here tonight for Arizona. The Diamondbacks are a team that has struggled for a long time. Don’t forget that this team was red hot right out of the gate. There was not a better team in baseball during the first two weeks of baseball. With that said the Diamondbacks are still a first place team and they still are a team with a ton of talent. This pitching match-up is a lot closer than you would think. Sure Jake Peavy goes tonight for the Padres and he is great, but on the season he is just 5-5. The Padres are just 5-8 in his thirteen starts. Doug Davis on the other hand has the same .500 mark and his team is .500 in his starts. The Diamondbacks at home are still a tough beat. They will be able to put a few runs on the board, and will take this Saturday affair.

LA DODGERS

When the Dodgers hit they are almost un-beatable. Would you believe that the Dodgers are within just a few games of first place? With all of their struggles they have managed to stay around and hang in the race. In fact if you ask our staff we like the Dodgers to take the NL West division crown and head to the playoffs. After all they do have the calming influence of Joe Toree on their side. Last night the Dodgers got the bats going early and they got them going often. LA ended up putting ten runs on the board and thirteen hits. Andre Either has been swinging the bat well and he hit his tenth home run of the season. Tonight the Dodgers face a soft-throwing left-handed pitcher. LA will be able to knock him around. The Giants are not a great home team, and do not protect their ball park the way they should.

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Mr. A

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS -140

Tampa Bay has won their last five games, five of its last six at home and have beaten the Royals in 12 of the last 14 meetings at Tropicana Field. Kansas City has lost five of their last 7 games, but has won seven of its last 10 on the road. Kansas City's Zack Greinke (7-4, 3.65) is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts.The right-hander is 0-1 with a 4.03 ERA in six career outings, including three starts against Tampa Bay, but hasn't faced them since 2005. Tampa Bay's Andy Sonnanstine (9-3, 4.60 ERA) is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander allowed three earned runs on six hits over seven innings in an 8-7 loss at Kansas City in his only previous start versus the Royals on July 7, 2007, but didn't factor in the decision. Take Tampa Bay at home with Andy Sonnanstine on the mound. The Rays are 12-2 in the right-hander's last 14 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 at home.

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Tony Karpinski

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS -140

The Rays protect their home field. That is so important for a young team looking to get in to the playoffs. Overall they are 34-13 at home. 34-13!!! Twenty games over .500 is no easy accomplishment. The Rays are a balanced team with speed and hitting. That is one of the reasons they haven’t had a long losing streak and why they are a first place team. They are fourth in the league in pitching and they are eighth in the league in runs scored. One last stat, they have 96 stolen bases. Remember that speed doesn’t slump. Play TB for your FREE PICK Winner.

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LT Profits

ASTROS / BRAVES UNDER 9

Jo-Jo Reyes has been a very pleasant surprise for the Atlanta Braves, but has received no run support, and we look for an instant replay and another low scoring affair tonight when the Braves host the Houston Astros. Reyes has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts including allowing just one earned run on two of those occasions. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his 12 starts this season, and yet he is just 3-6, as the Braves have given him just 3.67 runs per game of support. Now Astros starter Chris Sampson was demoted to the bullpen after posting a 6.04 ERA in 10 starts this season, but he has been very effective with an excellent 2.16 ERA in 13 relief appearances, so he seems poised to regain his good form as a starter. He did have some nice moments in this role each of the last two seasons, and he is facing an Atlanta lineup that has an abysmal .225 team batting average the last 10 games. Thus, look for a fifth straight Under in the head-to-head series between these teams.

BLUE JAYS / ANGELS UNDER 6½

It is not too often that we would recommend an Under at 6.5, but we are making an exception in this marquee matchup between Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays and John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, because of the positive odds attached to this total, we find it preferable to Under 7 -130, which is also available. Lackey has made only nine starts this season after beginning the year on the Disabled List, but to say he has been in peak form over those nine starts would be a severe understatement. He is 6-1 with an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 68.2 innings for the year, and he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his nine starts and three runs in the other. Not surprisingly, the Under is 8-0-1 in all Lackey starts. Now Halladay may have slipped just a smidgeon from his Cy Young Award days, but 99 percent of the pitchers in the league would be ecstatic to have a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP after 17 starts. He is certainly in great form after hurling a Complete Game four-hit shutout at Seattle on Monday. Remarkably, in this age of relief specialists, that marked his sixth Complete Game of the season, easily the most in the majors. Finally, all Lackey starts this season are averaging a combined 4.89 runs while all Halladay starts are averaging 6.71 runs, and we feel that these clubs will have a tough time topping five runs given the current form of the starters.

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Tom Freese

BLUE JAYS / ANGELS UNDER

Los Angeles is 9-0 UNDER with John Lackey this year with an average of 4.7 runs a game being scored. The Angels are 9-1 UNDER their last 10 games vs. a starter who has a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 20-8-3 UNDER vs. losing teams. Toronto is 11-0 UNDER with Roy Halladay as an underdog of +110 to +150 and they are 18-8-2 UNDER vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Blue Jays are 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games vs. AL West teams and Halladay is 8-1-1 UNDER his last 10 starts vs. the Angels.

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Nelly Sportsline

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Brian Burres allowed just one run in his last start and he owns a 4-2 record at home. As a lefthander he should have success against the Rangers as Texas is hitting just .211 in the past ten games against southpaws. Baltimore meanwhile is hitting .296 in the last ten games against right-handers and the Orioles continue to produce great results at home with a 25-14 record. Baltimore is 18-7 in the last 25 games as a favoirte and Texas is 1-3 behind starter Eric Hurley. Hurley struggled in his lone road start and pitching in this ballpark against a solid offense could be a rude awakening.

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Drew Gordon

FLORIDA MARLINS +120

I told you in this spot yesterday, that the Rockies were not to be trifled with at Coors against lefties, especially at night, when they're now 10-1 after Friday's win. However, its a different story with a righty on the mound tonight, as the Rockies are just 9-12 against them at Coors in night games. Granted, rookie Ryan Tucker hasn't exactly been on point of late, but he's got two things going for him in this match up: A. His ERA is considerably lower on the road (5.73 away versus 7.71 at home), and that includes his best start of the season, at Seattle, where he allowed 2 runs over 6 innings for the win. And B. He's being opposed by Jorge De La Rosa, who's been garbage at Coors this season, posting an ugly 7.33 ERA there. In other words, you can expect plenty of room for error with De La Rosa on the mound. Also, for all the talk about the Rockies offensive explosion yesterday, let's not forget the Fish scored 17 runs on 22 hits, and still posses one of the better power offenses in the Majors. They average nearly 5 runs per game against lefties on the highway, and the way De La Rosa is pitching, expect them to reach that numbers with ease tonight. Bottom line, look for the Fish to bounce back strong in this one, as the Rockies have been feasting on southpaws all season at Coors, but its a different story with the righty Tucker on the hill in this one. Granted, both teams should score plenty of runs, but in the end, Florida offers rock-solid value in this spot, especially when you consider how terrible De La Rosa was at home against the sorry-#### Padres offense in his last start (6 runs on 11 hits over 5 innings)! Play here is squarely on the Fish. Take Florida behind Tucker over Colorado and De La Rosa in this MLB match up.

 

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