Please tell me I heard this wrong, and hopefully I didn't, for if I did, typing it is a waste of time. Karl Ravech posed this question to Buck Showalter: Who's line-up is affected more? A-Rod out of the Yankkes line-up, or Papi from the Red Sox? Now, this is a valid question. There are 180 broadcast days for BBTN. There have to be talking points for a Monday night in June. The problem is, it's one of those questions that has a right answer, and methinks Mr Showalter is carrying a grudge from his managerial days.
Buck Showalter said the Red Sox will miss Papi more than the Yankees did/would miss A-Rod. If anyone saw the broadcast, and would like to tell me it was the allergy medicine kicking in, please do so, and Mr Showalter will receive an official IJWMFTT apology (Which btw, apologies to Colin Cowherd for lighting up that nutjob who called Manny Ramirez "almost" a HOFer. I grill the guy too much not to point out when he's actually right on the mark).
Anyway, let's take a look at some things. For their careers, a team of nine David Ortizes would score 7.8 runs per game. A team of nine Alex Rodriguezes would score 8.3 runs per game. So they both round to 8 runs per game. Since the question is relevant to this year, A-Rod holds a 7.6 to 5.5 edge. Factor in the glove, and there's no doubt that A-Rod is a better player than Ortiz.
To be fair, the question has to do with each player relative to his line-up. So let's look at the replacements for each, and tally the drop-off. A line-up of nine Wilson Betemits would score 3.7 runs per game in 2008 (5.0 for his career). Couple this drop-off with the best htting catcher on the DL, and it's a recipe for disaster.
The Red Sox have a lot of options. From a simplistic standpoint, Sean Casey is the next man up. This season, nine Sean Caseys would produce 6.8 runs per game (5.9 career). Both are better than Betemit's contribution, and (small sample size alert) right now would represent an upgrade in the Red Sox line-up (Save it people. I wrote small sample size. I am not advocating that I would take 600 ABs of Casey over 600 ABs of Ortiz).
Let us also not forget that the Sox have the option of improving the outfield by putting Ellsbury and Crisp in the outfiled, thus allowing Manny to take the DH slot. While David Ortiz is possibly the greatest pure DH of all time (Harold Baines and Edgar Martinez may have a say), losing one still leaves you with options, whereas losing the AL MVP who plays the hot corner while your catcher is already hurt, probably gives you some kind of record like 28-30 on the year. [Checks standings]. 36>28 right?
