So Jon Heyman likes Arizona more than he did in 2007.  He cited their record in one run games as a reason.  Here at IJWMFTT, we believe that playing too many one run games from year to year means that just as many eeked out wins in year A can turn into aw shucks losses in year B.  Needless to say, we don't have the D-backs winning the pennant. 

Below, I have ranked the teams 1-30.  I graded them on their pitching, offense, and defense using PRAR, BRAR, and FRAR (_runs above replacement).  I then factored in age of their core players and the net of player movement.  Remember, replacement doesn't mean average.  I'll use both terms in my synopsis, but not interchangeably.

Rank. Team (2007 Grade Pitching, Batting, Fielding, Score): Likely Finish

1. Boston Red Sox (A, A, A, 199): 101-61

Hard to believe that these apparent ball slugging clodhoppers grade out to an A on defense.  They are solid where it counts, and for all the flack Manny gets, he plays a pretty mean monster.  You can't expect the big two to hit like this forever, but Pedroia and Ellsbury should ramp up to take on any slack. Ranking change from 2007: -

2. Detroit Tigers (D, A, A, 65): 94-68

The pitching grade improves with a healthy bullpen (as Jim Leyland crosses his fingers) and the addition of Dontrelle Willis.  Willis is not the answer he's made out to be, but in a market where Kyle Lohse was a good signing, Willis is a notch below Santana and Garland.  Miguel Cabrera adds five wins to this team as well.  Change from 07: +5

3. New York Mets (C, A, B, 83): 92-70

The addition of Santana, more than twelve starts from Pedro, and some progress from Pelfrey give this team the edge in the East.  Oh, and the real NL MVP plays third base on this team.  Change from 07: +1

4. Colorado Rockies (C, B, A, 92): 91-71

This team has no glaring weakness.  Unlike last year's miracle run that made them the third best team in baseball, this year's version will be a relatively #### hum 90 win squad.  Change from 07: -1

5. Cleveland Indians (A, C, C, 73): 89-73

Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.  Oh wait, that was 60 years ago.  CC and Carmona and pray for a monsoona.  Actually, I don't know who the real Fausto is.  And for as much grief as someone on I-71 southbound gets for striking out, I think Travis Haffner has the highest strikeouts to pounds ratio.  This team is good, but not as good as the Tigers.  Position change: +2

6. Philadelphia Phillies (D, A, B, 82): 90-72

This team can mash.  Shane Victorino will make everyone forget about Aaron Rowand.  Burning questions: If the Blue Jays are out of it, and Rolen is healthy, does he supplant Pedro Feliz?  Is Brad Lidge still a premier closer?  Position change: -1

7. New York Yankees (D, A, B, 143): 89-73

The only thing added to this staff was a year to everyone's age.  Joba will be phased in, and loyal readers know that IJWMFTT likes the idea.  It's funny to me that A-rod is better at his unnatural position than captain deuce is at his natural position.  Doesn't matter though.  A-rod will shoulder the blame for a non-playoff season. Position change: -5

8. Chicago Cubs (B, D, A, 49): 89-73

As Uncle Owen said of Ben Kenobi, that's not just some crazy old man.  I am, of course, referring to Lou Piniella.  The addition of Fukudome, and a return to normal for some key players will improve the offensive grade.  Giving Kerry Wood the closers role make s him pith fewer innings, and truly gives this team a bullpen ace, as opposed to a mere closer.  Position change: +2

9. San Diego Padres (B, B, B, 59): 88-74

There were two teams in the NL with no glaring weakness.  Unfortunately, they both played in game 163.  The problem with the Padres is that beyond Jake Peavy, nothing really stands out as a strength. Position change: -1

10. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (A, C, D, 54): 88-74

With an aging core, Willits and Kotchman need to become stars.  Tori Hunter is expected to sure up the defensive ineptitude by at least getting them to average.  He won't.  At the wrong side of peak, that sure was a curious contract.  This team has a lot of pitching and plays in the worst division, so a win total is hard to pin down.  They'll be in the playoffs, but they are the AL's fifth best team. Position change: -1

11. Atlanta Braves (D, B, B, 49): 86-76

You read it right.  The Braves pitching did not grade well.  Jeff Francoeur is an outmaker.  Andruw is gone.  Chipper is aging.  How are they here at eleventh?  I guess the other teams don't make a strong case to move ahead.  Hudson, Glavine, Smoltz, Teixiera, McCann - There are still some good names here. Position change: -

12. Toronto Blue Jays (B, D, A, 31): 84-78

Pitching and defense always stand a chance in baseball circles.  On the diamond, this team has to play 38 games against the Yankees and Red Sox.  They're good.  They probably make the playoffs in several other divisions (AL West, NL Central, and maybe NL West). Position change: -

13. Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (A, D, D, 23): 84-78

Names and names with age are a surplus here.  They aren't losers, but it will be frustrating to say "I remember when that guy was hitting forty taters a year." Position change: +1

14. Milwaukee Brewers (A, B, F, 28): 84-78

The Brewers will win the World Series if every batter they face is a lefty with fly ball tendencies.  Corey Hart in right field was the only player who performed above average with the glove.  These guys can mash, and you have to assume a full year of Ben Sheets.  Not enough though.  Position change: -1

15. Arizona Diamondbacks (A, F, B, 1): 82-80

Arizona won last year because of two things: Bob Melvin managed, or better yet, failed to overmanage the bullpen.  And the team won close games by not making "invisible" outs like caught stealing GIDP, bunting, etc.  If they can't get on base, or eat up bases when they do get on base, Dan Haren will only serve as the person that keeps this squad from falling all the way back to Earth.  Position change: -

16. Oakland A's (C, C, D, 1) 80-82

The A's are the poor man's San Diego.  They don't fail at anything, but they certainly don't have any strengths at this point.  The A's suffered mnay key injuries, and this was one team with no margin for error in that department.  This team will be respectable, but on the wrong side of mediocrity. Position change: -

17. Seattle Mariners (C, B, F, -28) 79-83

Save for Ichiro, the team is big and slow, which yields runs.  Actually, Ichiro is merely an average centerfielder (arm induced) yielding a total of seven fewer runs than average over the past two seasons.  For every bit of happiness about Bedard, there should be caution.  He has never thrown 200 innings in a season.  Give me the name of an ace who has not been asked to go 200 innings.  Also, you live by the pen, you die by the pen.  Intuitively, you understand that relievers are not as good as starters.  If the M's think they will get the same pen production, they are taking a gamble.  That is why IJWMFTT is not as big on the Mariners as others are.  Position change: +1

18. Cincinnati Reds (C, C, F, -49) 77-85

This team scares me because of Dusty Baker.  Dusty has managed two playoff teams, but it seems like he gets out maneuvered in the post-season.  That won't be a concern in Cincy.  What is a concern is taking a guy like Joey Votto and trying to turn him into a free swinger.  If an old schooler like Dusty is so in love with free swinging, he should look at Adam Dunn.  Dunn has a place, and that place is hitting three run jacks with guys like Votto setting the table.  With Baker at the healm, I'm not so sure. Position change: +2

19. San Francisco Giants (B, F, C, -35) 77-85

You see that right.  A team with Barry Bonds graded to an F offensively.  Let's see: First baseman is Rich Aurilia?  Check!  Shortstop is the last respected defensive only SS since Tony Fernandez?  Check!  Center fielder played for the Rays in their fluorescent green days? Check mate!  Pitching keeps this team afloat.  Position change: -

20. Houston Astros (C, D, D, -58) 75-87

At this point in time, Luke Scott may be the offensive equivalent of Miguel Tejada.  This team has been so obsessed with getting a shortstop.  Well, they got one.  Too bad he's on the wrong side of prime.  Position Change: +1

21. St. Louis (D, C, D, -78) 74-88

Did this team really win the 2006 World Series?  Position change: +1

22. Minnesota Twins (B, F, C, -14) 73-89

I'm willing to listen to theories as to why this team will not continue its precipitous decline.  I have none to offer.  Remember, that B in the pitching column includes Johan.  And that C includes Tori (a####e as it is).  Position change: -5

23. Florida Marlins (D, A, F, -61) 70-92

That's how bad the rest of MLB is.  The team with nothing loses Cabrera and Willis, and still isn't the worst.  This team can't field, especially in the cavernous left field in Miami.  Hanley, Emezega, and Uggla still give some hope.  Not much.  But some.  Position change: -1

24. Texas (F, C, C, -84) 70-92

The offense doesn't grade out as well as it did in the past, and that includes a 30 run barrage to make up for any shortcomings.  I don't think a team has ever regressed to their ExWL in one game the way the Orioles did that day (Their pythag was 6 games better than actual before that dreadful game).  Beyond that, there wasn't much to the Rangers season.  Another season, another slugger lost with Teixeira being moved to the Braves at the deadline.  Are Blaylock and Young next? Position change: +1

25. Baltimore (F, D, C, -95) 70-92 

There has been a major misnomer about this team and its owner.  People hate Peter Angelos for the wrong reasons.  He has kept the payroll in the top half of all major league clubs, and that includes the fact that the Nationals have eroded 30 percent of his market.  No, the problem has been poor baseball decisions.  Oh what a guy like Billy Beane could do with Angelos' money.  Well we may be seeing that with Andy MacPhail wheeling and dealing.  If by the grace of God, he is able to pry Felix Pie from the Cubs in the Brian Roberts deal, the Orioles may be set up to not allow a fly ball base hit all season.  Melvin Mora could be moved at the deadline.  Do the Orioles have young arms, or bad arms?  Position change: -

26. Washington (F, D, A, -96) 69-93

Jim Bowden likes projects.  Jose Guillen, Dimitri Young, Lastings Milledge (bad wrap in my opinion), and Elijah Dukes (deserved rap) are on Bowden's lifetime reclamation list.  Will Dimitri play now that he's getting paid?  Can Nick Johnson stay healthy?  Can John Patterson stay healthy?  Will Bowden do with Chad Cordero what he failed to do with Alfonso Soriano?  And of course, will the Nationals or their opponents benefit from the new ballpark?  Position change: -

27. Kansas City (C, F, C, -120) 69-93

One would likely place the tag of "young ballclub" on the Royals.  After all, that's how cash strapped clubs field a squad.  Take a bunch of non-arbitraion-eligible players and hope for the best until year six.  For the 2007 edition of the club, they took their younger talent and paired them with third tier free agents.  As for the young talent?  It's not that young anymore.  It appears that Angel Berroa peaked in his rookie season.  John Buck is average.  Emil Brown is outta here.  Position change: +1

28. Tampa (F, B, F , -142) 68-94

When you hear young and fast, you rarely think worst defense in the majors.  The not so devil Rays were the worst defense.  The bullpen was awful as always.  Carlos Pena, Johnny Gomes, and BJ Upton provide a surprising amount of pop.  Every year, we hear this is the year that Tampa climbs out of the cellar.  I'll believe it when I see it.  Position change: +2

29. Pittsburgh (C, D, F, -114) 67-95

Young talent.  How much of it will be in a Cubs or Mets uniform on August 1st?  Position change: -

30. White Sox (B, F, F, -121) 65-97

I am reminded of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens.  The team felt that they could not repeat with the roster they had, so they brought in a new quarterback.  The team made the playoffs, but did not repeat.  Many felt that the Ravens should have stood pat, and rolled with Dilfer.  The White Sox would be those people.  After winning the 2005 World Series, they stood pat and got a little worse.  We were told that 2006 was an anomoly, and that Ozzie Guillen would outcrazy the league the way he did in 2005.  Again, the team got worse.  Again, the White Sox are in denial.  It doesn't matter that your centerfielder is a certified outmaker, your right fielder just got extended after his last prime year, or that you finally realized how bad your shortstop is - your going to keep giving outs away, and hope that dirtying your uniform or getting tossed from games gives you the extra 100 runs your offense needed...to be average. Position change: -3