I’ve received a handful of emails lately asking me about a few running backs headed for free agency.  Here are my thoughts on some of the questions I've been asked. 

The most asked about running back has been Oakland’s Justin Fargas.  Fargas picked a good time to emerge as a productive runner this season.  Fargas has always been an intriguing runner due to his burst to the hole and speed.  I like the way Fargas attacks the hole and he’s become a lot more decisive over the past year.  He’s found a good rhythm within the zone blocking attack.  Although he’s tough and runs hard at times, Fargas is not a power runner nor has been very durable.  Unfortunately, his knee sprain to end his season short this month re-opened a lot of significant concerns in the past about his durability.

Fargas may have played his way into a couple teams considering him as a stop-gap in a two-back system as a 10-15 carry a game guy.  It would be too risky to count on anything more over a 16-game season with Fargas. 

I’ve been asked whether Ron Dayne is a starting running back.  My thoughts are no.  He’s found a comfort zone in Houston and played effectively in an expanded role this season, but I wouldn’t invest much into Dayne if I am another franchise.  I give Dayne a lot of credit for battling back from a disappointing situation with the Giants earlier in his career.  He’s matured a little since that time and found a franchise that realizes he’s not Jerome Bettis.  Dayne is neither a true power back nor is he a playmaker.  Dayne does have the power to keep the chains moving – especially in the fourth quarter.  He also has a little short-area quickness, but has no speed or burst to break into the second level of a defense.  Dayne would be best re-signing with Houston as an insurance back. 

What is the future of T.J. Duckett and the running back situation in Detroit?  I believe the Lions must re-sign Duckett – especially after the latest injury to Kevin Jones.  Duckett isn’t the answer as a starter, but deserves to compete for more carries in 2008.  He could be effective with around 10 carries a game.  Duckett is a good power back – especially in the redzone.  He has decent speed for his size, but has very little quickness to the perimeter.  He won’t make plays in the passing game, but is an adequate outlet option.   

As for the long-term running back situation in Detroit, the Lions definitely have some decisions to make following the knee injury to Jones.   This means Jones will miss another year of the off-season program while rehabbing from another injury.  At the same time, he was battling a lot of soreness in his foot since making back to the field earlier this season from a serious Lisfranc injury.  Jones will work hard to overcome another tough break, but the Lions face an uncertain situation at running back for the long-term.  The one situation that favors Jones in the long-term is the Lions need to address several holes on the defensive side of the ball this spring.  That could mean the Lions decide to re-sign Duckett and pair him with another stop-gap option, then evaluate their situation at the running back position a year from now. 

I also have been asked about Jacksonville’s LaBrandon Toefield.  This is an interesting situation because he’s been buried behind Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew the last couple seasons.  Toefield is a very good runner between the tackles.  He can finish runs with his strong lower body.  But Toefield has a lot of limitations because he’s slow and lacks quick feet to make plays in the open field.  There are also a lot of past concerns about Toefield’s durability.  Toefield has a lot of limitations to be projected as a starter – even in a stop-gap situation.  At his best – Toefield could be effective if a starter goes down for a few games.  I believe he wouldn’t be a bad addition to add some numbers in the backfield – especially if you are looking for a short-yardage back. 

The Chicago Bears have had an interesting spring away from the field, but remain a strong favorite in the NFC North.  One of the biggest changes will be at running back.  The Bears could miss the steadiness of Thomas Jones.  Cedric Benson has the power to take over games on the ground, but must prove he’s mentally tough enough to handle the responsibility.  Rex Grossman again faces a lot of pressure.  He plays with a lot of passion, but must protect the ball better and play within himself when under pressure.  Rookie Greg Olsen’s presence at tight end should help Grossman on third downs and within the red zone.  The biggest concern though for this offense is that they could age quickly at any point.  They have a handful of key players well into their 30s – especially along the offensive line.  Defense will again lead the Bears with their ability to make plays and create turnovers.  Mark Anderson has quickly emerged as a dangerous threat off the perimeter and they are deep at cornerback.  Teams must always account for Brian Urlacher at linebacker.  Having Tommie Harris healthy is also critical.  He’s disruptive inside and the lynchpin to their run defense.  But there’s a big drop in terms of depth along the interior line behind Harris.

Defense is the strength of the Green Bay Packers.  They have a strong front seven that can stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback.  The addition of rookie Justin Harrell bolsters a front four that could be at its strongest since the Mike Holmgren era.  A.J. Hawk is ready to evolve into a playmaker at linebacker.  They do need more stability in the secondary behind Al Harris and Charles Woodson.  Depth is very thin at cornerback.  They are struggling to find consistency at the safety spots.  Nick Collins is a nice athlete, but lacks natural instincts.  There are lots of concerns on the offensive side of the football.  Brett Favre remains effective, but can’t carry the offense these days.  They will miss the presence of Ahman Green in the backfield.  Rookie Brandon Jackson fits the scheme with his quickness, but it’s a lot asking a rookie coming off an ordinary college career to replace a productive runner like Green.  Donald Driver is the only true target in the passing game.  And the tight end position is a mess.  Bubba Franks looked old last season.  Donald Lee has athleticism, but isn’t reliable. 

The Detroit Lions finally have some direction under Rod Marinelli, but continue to face a long road.  They could win a few more games this season with their offense.  Mike Martz will be aggressive through the air.  Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson create a lot of matchup problems outside with Mike Furrey finding openings out of the slot.  A healthy Kevin Jones adds some balance at running back.  Jon Kitna doesn’t protect the ball very well and has too many limitations, but he does provide some veteran stability and leadership at the quarterback position.  The Lions will score points this season.  Unfortunately, they continue to have a lot of holes on defense.  Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding form a strong duo in the middle of their front seven.  Ernie Sims is a perfect fit at linebacker, but they still have a lot of problems upfront.  They need more linebackers who can get to the ball and a pass rusher.  Marinelli has confidence in former Buccaneer Dewayne White coming off the edge, but this is the first time he’s been in the position of being an opponent’s top priority in pass protection going into a NFL season.  In the secondary, they will be relying on two injury-prone cornerbacks in Fernando Bryant and former Ram Travis Fisher.  Stanley Wilson has progressed and will likely see a lot of time in the secondary. 

There’s been a lot of instability within the organization for the Minnesota Vikings the past few years.  So you can never know what to expect, but Brad Childress is trying to create a fresh culture.  Childress is doing this by connecting his future to the development of Tavaris Jackson at quarterback.  Jackson has taken a good approach to the game, but his inexperience will be a major factor.  And he won’t have much help in the passing game.  Troy Williamson has been more consistent catching the football this spring, but still must prove he’s not a track guy playing football.  Sidney Rice is a good athlete with size, but is raw and immature.  Bobby Wade adds some experience, but he’s nothing more than an adequate target out of the slot.  With a lot of questions in the passing game, expect Childress to build more around Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson on the ground.  The Vikings view Peterson as a true franchise back to build their offense around.  On the defensive side of the ball, they’ll be strong against the run game so long that Pat Williams and Kevin Williams stay healthy.  They will make some plays across the board in the secondary, but the pass rush remains a concern.  The Vikings lack a true perimeter threat that can disrupt the timing of an opponents’ passing game. 

Chicago Bears: The Bears are focused on winning now and the addition of Greg Olsen is a big step forward on the offensive side of the ball.  Olsen has the speed and athleticism to bring an added dimension to the passing game that was much needed.  The biggest question is whether he’ll quickly adjust to the physical side of the pro game. 

The Bears reached on value for Dan Buzuin and Michael Okwo.  Buzuin is a high motor defensive end who displays excellent toughness, but is limited as a pass rusher.  Okwo is being counted on eventually taking the weakside job – depending on the Lance Briggs situation.  Okwo is smart and athletic, but has a lot of durability questions with his size limitations.  Josh Beekman brings some youth to the offensive line, but has only limited upside as an interior player.  He could become a dependable starter who overachieves solely on toughness.  Kevin Payne will make an impact on special teams in 2007, but also has the tools to an eventual starter at one of the safety spots in the next couple years. 

Detroit Lions: Mike Martz is very excited with the addition of Calvin Johnson.  Johnson is not only the best player in the draft, but creates a lot of interesting possibilities within the passing game.  Opposing defensive coordinators will struggle to find ways to contain both Johnson and Roy Williams.  And let’s not forget the Lions also have Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald working out of the slot. 

Rod Marinelli has a new pet project in Ikaika Alama-Francis at defensive end.  He’s raw, but has all the attributes to become a productive pass rusher in the Lions’ scheme on defense.  Marinelli, who is also known as one of the top defensive line teachers in the game believes in his ability to mold Alama-Francis into an impact player off the perimeter. 

At quarterback, the Lions clearly had Drew Stanton graded higher than most teams.  Stanton has solid physical tools, but made bad decisions with the football in college and didn’t display much leadership.   Most teams also had Gerald Alexander graded lower than the Lions, but he does possess the smarts and physical tools to eventually become a fixture in their defense. 

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball.  They are in desperate need of playmakers, but Ted Thompson likes to build his team around defense.  If Justin Harrell stays healthy, he has the ability to create a strong presence inside against the run.  The Packers could be on the verge of having their most talented and deepest front four since the days of annual Super Bowl runs. 

The Packers don’t trust handing the run game to Vernand Morency.  That prompted the additions of Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn.  Jackson is an instinctive runner with solid vision for the cutback lanes, but is on the small side.  Wynn has tremendous physical tools, but has a spotty track record in his approach to the game.  David Clowney and James Jones likely won’t make much of an impact at wide receiver, though Clowney does possess some downfield potential.  I don’t see any of these guys making major impacts in the run or pass game for the Packers.  And the tight end position remains a major concern. 

Minnesota Vikings: Passing on Brady Quinn again confirms Brad Childress commitment to building around Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback.  Adrian Peterson was a tremendous addition for the Vikings.  There are some who question his durability and upright running style, but this could be a special player.  Chester Taylor had a nice year in 2006, but there are long-term questions about his durability and lacks the skills of a special back.  And despite his background with Andy Reid in Philadelphia, Childress is committed to building a strong ground game in Minnesota. 

The Vikings addressed the need for numbers and athleticism at wide receiver with the additions of Sidney Rice and Aundrae Allison, but both are raw and carry somewhat of a bust factor.  Rice is very intriguing with his blend of size and athleticism, but there are concerns whether he’ll find a comfort level within the mental aspects of a pro scheme and beating press coverage off the line of scrimmage.  If Rice and Allison flop, this will be a significant setback in Childress’ blueprint. 

Marcus McCauley had a vanilla senior year, but was a good pickup in the third round as the Vikings needed to solidify their depth at cornerback.  He’s a good athlete who plays smart. 

Former 49ers’ defensive tackle Anthony Adams found the right fit by signing with the Bears.  Adams has been a misfit in Mike Nolan’s 3-4 system in San Francisco the past couple years. 

Adams has underrated strength and relies on good gap quickness to make some plays against the run.  Adams is also smart enough to read plays quickly and is active in pursuit within his range.  Since Adams has a small frame and lacks ideal top end quickness, he won’t contribute much as a pass rusher. 

This is a good move by the Bears as they adjust their depth to better fit Lovie Smith’s defensive philosophy.    

More Notes:

Cowboys Bolster Secondary: Ken Hamlin draws a lot of mixed reviews from scouts, but I believe he’ll be a solid fit in Wade Phillips’ defense with his range over the top.  Hamlin has the ability to step in front of plays and create turnovers, but is also very erratic.  He gave up a lot of plays last season with his tendency to gamble too often.  He also can hit in run support, but is very inconsistent in breaking down as a tackler.  Despite this inconsistency, Hamlin does stabilize the secondary at free safety and allows Roy Williams to concentrate at playing in the box. 

Wiggins Lands in Jacksonville: A lot of people talk about how the addition of Jermaine Wiggins replaces Kyle Brady at tight end.  Perhaps in terms of a roster spot, but not in skill set.  Brady was one of the league’s top in-line blockers in the run game and will be tough to replace in that aspect.  Wiggins is a non-factor in the run game.  His value will lie in the passing game, where Dirk Koetter will run a lot of multi tight end sets.  Wiggins will not create favorable matchups against opposing defenses, but knows how to set up over the middle and make tough grabs in traffic with his excellent hands.   His reliable presence as a check down option adds a degree of certainty in a passing game that is anything but certain with erratic play from their receivers.

Cardinals add leadership: Veteran fullback Terrelle Smith is an excellent fit for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.  Smith is a tremendous lead blocker who knows how to finish plays and displays a lot of toughness.  He’s also very sound in pass protection, which will be a major asset behind a shaky line. 

Changing of the guard in Detroit: The Lions hope to reverse their fortunes at the guard spots with veterans Zach Piller and Edwin Mulitalo.  This probably means Damien Woody’s days are numbered in Detroit, where his lax mentality doesn’t fit Rod Marinelli’s aggressive direction.  With Piller and Mulitalo, the Lions now have two experienced guards who play with a lot of toughness and fit Marinelli’s desire to have strong run blockers upfront.  Unfortunately, both are aging and grade as backups.  Piller is tough and relies a lot on smarts to get the proper angles, but is stiff and can be exposed in space.  Mulitalo is a similar player with more size and massive strength, but wears down often and becomes vulnerable in pass protection.  Durability is often a concern since both ended last season on injured reserved.  The Lions must hope they could squeeze a season of these guys. 

I liked the move by the Lions to sign Dewayne White.  White is an ascending player and pass rusher who Rod Marinelli is very familiar with from their time together in Tampa Bay, where Marinelli coached the defensive lineman.

White is a natural edge rusher with good quickness off the perimeter.  He won’t collapse the pocket, but plays with an excellent motor and shows very solid effort against the run.  I believe White is a better piece to the puzzle moving forward than James Hall, who was traded to St. Louis last week. 

Marinelli will also be working very closing with Kalimba Edwards this spring.  Marinelli still has that position coach mentality in him that he can maximize Edwards’ potential as a pass rusher.  If Edwards can finally break out in one last attempt, the Lions should have the makings of a pretty solid defensive line this coming season.