I am thinking out loud on some issues around the NFL today.  These necessarily won’t be my final thoughts on the issues, but here are some of my thinking out loud thoughts at this moment.  Bring your comments and thoughts to the table and we’ll discuss them. 

One of the biggest topics around the NFC is how the tight race plays out between Tampa Bay, Carolina, and New Orleans.  I believe the Saints are positioning themselves to win the division.  They have just about pulled even with Tampa and they entered the season as the division favorite.  The Saints are finding their rhythm again.  Reggie Bush has settled into the role of being the feature back without the support of Deuce McAllister.  David Patten has emerged as a solid veteran target to complement Marques Colston.  Eric Johnson has been a steady option for Drew Brees at the tight end position.  The offensive line has stabilized after a slow start.  Jammal Brown has returned to form at left tackle.  They still have a few holes on the defensive side of the ball, but they are getting strong play from their front four.  The jury is still out in Tampa Bay.  Earnest Graham has been solid in moving the chains.  Jeff Garcia continues to provide spark to the offense, but many scouts are skeptical to whether Garcia will remain this strong into the stretch run of the season.  It’s a valid concern, but Garcia is determined to overcome those skeptics.  Carolina is sitting at .500, but they have a lot of questions at the quarterback position and not enough playmakers.  I have to give John Fox a lot of credit for holding this team in place. 

Is Mike Nolan failing in San Francisco?  That’s a strong question that many fans are emailing me lately.  This has been a disappointing season.  They’ve had a lot of injuries.  The offensive line was expected to develop into a strong point, but they took a step back this season.  This has been a setback for Nolan’s program, but you can’t throw Nolan under the bus yet.  Nolan isn’t a dynamic presence who the players love, but he’s done a solid job bringing stability and the right culture back the organization the past few years.  We have to watch how the respond this spring and overcome a lot of the adversity they faced.  Nolan needs to stay the course and expect to rebound next season.  If they are still in the same position at this time next season, then the organization must consider moving in a different direction.  The loss of Norv Turner after only one season hasn’t helped either.  Nolan has had three different offensive coordinators in the past three seasons. 

Heading into the off-season, the 49ers must re-evaluate their offensive line.  Jonas Jennings must go.  He lacks the mental toughness to become a winner in San Francisco.  Joe Staley is a building block moving forward.  They need to find a playmaker at the wide receiver position.  They also need an upgrade with their depth at quarterback.  I like the foundation they are building on the defensive side of the ball.  They have a number of building block players such as Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson, and Nate Clements.  Lawson’s knee injury was definitely a setback in the hopes of developing a pass rush this season.

Can the Browns beat the Steelers this weekend?  I don’t think so.  The Browns have come a long way since the opening week of the season.  They found some chemistry along the offensive line and a rhythm on the ground.  That has made a big difference at the quarterback position.  Derek Anderson has the arm to push the ball downfield to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.  Anderson will face a big test against an aggressive defense on the road.  He must display he can make good decisions with the football against a defense like the Steelers.  The problem for the Browns this week will be defense.  They don’t stop the run well and the secondary will have trouble with the diverse passing game.  Sean Jones and Brodney Pool could struggle against Heath Miller. 

I believe Carolina has to get a good look at Matt Moore before the season ends.  David Carr has already worn out his welcome here.  The players have very little confidence in Carr.  Carr just isn’t mentally tough enough to become a starting quarterback.  He hasn’t had enough time for the scars from Houston to heal.  Vinny Testaverde doesn’t have the durability to lead the Panthers to a division crown nor does he represent the future here.   I am intrigued with Moore’s size and arm strength.  He’s not going to create many plays on his own, but he has the physical tools to deliver the football from the pocket.  He can’t be projected as a starter for the long-term, but the Panthers must find out if he’s at least a solid backup candidate as they evaluate their future at quarterback. 

There was a lot of surprise around the league when Green Bay signed Donald Lee to a four-year extension.   Just a year ago, Lee was viewed as a fringe player.  He’s always been a pretty good athlete and an adequate seal off blocker, but was terribly inconsistent in the past – especially in Miami.  He dropped a lot of balls and was never focused on the small details of the passing game.  But Lee has emerged as a consistent target this season and has been a threat in the red zone.  He’s found a comfort level in Green Bay and has matured under the Packers’ coaching staff.   I am always skeptical about giving a long-term deal to a player who just emerged after a few mediocre seasons, but there are strong indications that Lee’s career has turned the corner. 

Rookie Steve Smith needs to get healthy and become a contributor for the Giants during the second half of the season.  The Giants desperately need production from their third spot at wide receiver.  Smith displayed polished skills for a rookie during training camp.  He runs good routes for a young receiver and catches the ball well.  That’s an upgrade from Sinorice Moss.  It’s disturbing that Moss didn’t capitalize on his opportunity to play a bigger role in the passing game the past few weeks.  Moss hasn’t displayed much toughness and his limited stature makes it difficult to find a role for him in the passing game.  There’s not much you can do with Moss outside of trying to display plays that puts Moss in the open field with the ball.

One of the bright spots in Atlanta this season has been Paul Petrino, the coach’s brother.  Petrino has quickly established himself as one of the league’s top receiver coaches this season.  Petrino is a very no-nonsense coach.  He stresses fundamentals and holds his players accountable.  Roddy White came into the league with good physical tools, but wasn’t very mature and had a lot of mental breakdowns on the field.  But White has matured and plays with a lot more discipline this season.  If the Falcons had a quarterback, I believe White would be one of the more talked about playmakers this season.  Rookie Laurent Robinson has always developed quickly.  He’s a natural athlete with excellent ball skills.  Expect to hear Robinson’s name in the passing game more often during the next two months. 

Adrian Peterson isn’t the only rookie to watch on the Minnesota offense.  I believe the Vikings have found another building block with Sidney Rice at wide receiver.  Rice intrigued scouts with his natural size and athleticism last spring.  He displays tremendous ball skills.  He’s worked hard and has displayed more maturity that anyone could have expected.  Rice is going to be a component in the passing game that many defensive coaches will have to worry matching up against for several years.  Peterson and Rice give the Vikings two young playmakers to build around if they can find a quarterback. 

Keep an eye on rookie cornerback Fred Bennett in Houston.  With Dunta Robinson out for the season, Bennett’s role is going to expand for the balance of the season.  Coaches have brought Bennett along slowly despite the struggles of DeMarcus ####gins on the other side, but they have liked what the see from Bennett.  Bennett is a good athlete who has shown a comfort level on the field.  Bennett will now be tested against some solid playmakers down the stretch to see whether he’s ready to become a solid number two cornerback next season as the Texans make their off-season plans.