I have been the guy. Up to this point, it has been pretty much only me. Oh, there have been two or three others who have posted very eloquently on the subject and others who have made reference to it in their blogs. But I am the one who has posted consistently since spring training about the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays as a power in the American League this year.
I’ll admit it; I got caught up in the fantasy of the whole thing watching the Rays’ work outs at the Naimoli complex during the spring. There was something there that hadn’t been there before. I was convinced that this year’s edition of the Rays was finally going to have a winning season for the first time in the history of the franchise. I even predicted in an earlier blog that they would win 88 games this year and would compete for a wild card spot. I went as far as to compare them to the Cardiac Kids of the 1967 Boston Red Sox. But now the bubble has burst. What I have been witnessing in the last two games at Fenway Park (and the previous 19 games) has convinced me that this team does not have what it takes to make a serious run at the playoffs this year.
I will try to elaborate my feeling on the subject.
The team does not have a legitimate star on offense that can carry the team during the bad times. It does not have a Yaz as the ’67 Sox did. It does not have a Fred Lynn or Jim Rice as the ’75 Sox did. It does not have a Paul Konerko as the ’05 White Sox had. It does not have an Albert Pujols as the ’06 Cardinals had. It does not have a Garret Anderson or a Troy Glaus as the ’02 Angels had. It does not have a Chipper Jones that the ’99 Braves had. I could go on but you get the point.
The closest thing this team has to a star is B.J. Upton but he will be lucky to hit 20 homers this year and doesn’t seem to have matured enough to be the leader on the field. The impression he leaves me with is that it is all about him and his next contract. Don’t get me wrong, he is an outstanding center fielder and will hit around .300. He will steal a bunch of bases and have a bunch of RBIs batting from the 3 spot. He can make a game exciting but I don’t see him stepping up to be the “man”.
Carl Crawford is generally considered to be the best player on the team but that was when he was being compared to the Rays lineups of old. He actually is an enigma. He is as fast as the wind but he has never been successful as a leadoff hitter. He can’t do the things necessary to make him a good #2 hitter. He can’t bunt. He strikes out too much. He is not a reliable hit and run guy. When he had the opportunity to bat 3rd in the order, he tried to become “Albert Pujols”. All the things he could do well suffered and his production numbers did not justify batting him in the three spot. Where do you hit him to get the most out of his abilities?
The team does not have a right fielder. Gabe Gross is defensively as good as there is in the league but he can’t hit. Eric Hinske hits well enough but he has limited range and a limited arm in the field. Jonny Gomes maybe the nicest guy in the league and the teams best cheerleader but he doesn’t even belong on the roster.
Carlos Pena has not been producing as a clean-up hitter should produce. I believe that he will snap out of it but in the meantime he is hurting the team batting 4th. I was watching the game on Monday night when he got hit in the hand by a pitch. When he came to bat after that incident, he did not have the first two fingers of his left hand on the bat and he hit a homer. Pena has a swing that is reminiscent of Pete Incaviglia; a pronounced uppercut. Inky hit a lot of homers but he struck out more than anyone else in the league when he played regularly. That kind of swing requires that all the mechanics have to be perfect to bring success. Pena’s top hand has been too strong all year and as a result he hasn’t been driving the ball. Joe Magraine commented on the same thing and he was a pitcher, what does he know?
Jason Bartlett is being wasted in the 9th spot. He has all the tools to become a great #2 hitter. He can bunt, he can hit the ball to the right side and he has good speed. He will eventually hit close to .300. His strikeouts (which are not a huge amount) will be reduced when he exhibits the disciplines necessary to hit in the 2 hole.
Joe Maddon shows about as much imagination in managing a game on the field as David Archuletta did on American Idol in trying to translate a nice song into something entertaining. He babies the bullpen to a point of losing games. He warms up people too late and they are not ready when they are needed. He will stick with his starters too long to try and save his bullpen. What difference does it make when you lose? If Jackson and Sonny don’t show a marked improvement in their next starts, is it not the right time to give Hammel and Niemann another shot in the rotation? Terry Francona manages every game like it was the last game of the season and he was in a tie for the championship. Joe Torre, Ozzie, LaRussa and Pinella manage the same way. The one thing they all have in common is they all have been World Champions. Maddon hasn’t won #### and if he doesn’t start taking some chances, he never will. He just seems to thrive on not making the hard decisions.
I am very reluctant to put this one down because I don’t have any proof that it’s true. But the circle I travel in has been talking about office management people and specifically Andrew Friedman dictating to Maddon who, where, when and how much to play the guys on this team. If that is the case, it will not work. Suits totally screwed up the war in Viet Nam by deciding that they knew more about waging war than the generals. George H.W. Bush and General Schwarzkoff proved that generals should run the wars. Suits just decide when, where and who with to do it. It is the same with a baseball game. Suits do not belong on the field. If this information is not correct, I want to offer my apology to Mr. Friedman and the rest of the Rays management team. But it hard for me to believe that Maddon can be this stupid in keeping Pena hitting in the cleanup spot.
OK, there it is. I am not nearly as angry as I was when I started this post. I guess getting this off my chest was good therapy. I still support the Rays and wish them nothing but success. As a matter of fact, I have been wishing for a Rays/Red Sox AL championship just to find out whom I would root for. However, the Blue Jays seem to have figured out how to play the game and win. The Red Sox are not far enough ahead to make me feel comfortable and the Rays don’t seem to have the horses to win it. The Red Sox have to.
To take something from Al Michaels... Do you believe in miracles?
Well these young guys have got something special going here. We just witnessed a huge brawl in Boston and that speaks volumes to me about this young team. Yes, the Red Sox have their number in Boston, but I believe the Rays have THEIR number in St. Pete...
I'm not ready to bail on these guys... Stranger things have happened.
bosox61
The real problem that the team is now having is that the offense has slacken off somewhat.
And at the same they're lacking in true veteran leadership . If they had someone there who was somewhat more vocal and prepared to lead by example then things might be so different. But that's just my opinion mind you at this juncture !
See my latest NBA post and let me know what you think as to the merits of the piece ? It's titled All This And So Much More ! I'll look forward to reading your comments as and when you're ready.
To all you Tampa Bay "Ray" fans: it is proved once again that Jonny Gomes is an unstable thug and should be, at the very least, suspended, for his multiple acts of violence to opposing teams. And his excuse "It's simple...I'm just defending my pitcher." sounds an awful lot like the 5-year-olds found on the playground that my wife teaches. And Red Sox fans shouldn't be easy to agree with me because Coco Crisp isn't much better. Nor is "just Manny being Manny" funny anymore, especially when he can't even control himself against HIS OWN teammates.
The Rays are my team and I will pull for them until the last out. Having said that I think they have some work to do before they can seriously contend for the division. I agree with you about their weaknesses,although I believe Crawford and Upton will improve and be great assets. The problem seems to be how to address their other needs.The good news is that whether it is through free agency or the draft,the Rays finally have a solid foundation to build on.
I am not bailing on them. I basically am just a poor loser. Always have been and probably always will be. But losing has always caused me to take an objective look at the situation and what I can do to improve it. I wrote is what I found.
Al - No question about the offense. I was trying to find a statistic on men left on base to see where the Rays rank with the rest of the league but it doesn't appear to exist.
They actually have that guy in Cliff Floyd. He is not shy about calling the guys on their ####
bosox61
Lloyd can be very vocal but a lot of the time too he's so susceptible to injuries. And what happens then when they've not got that type of figure on the team to gee them up ?
There's no one else really there that it can be said is willing to do that. And as you've said before Maddon is exaclty known for getting in his players' faces at all ! If anything he brings along that laissez-faire type of attitude. Which isn't exactly what this young team needs.
Though I must admit the slugfest between Shields and Crisp has me thinking that the team now possesses a physicality about it that I for one had never witnessed before.
justan' aka tophatal ............
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bosox61
I can't understand how MLB came down so hard primarily on the Rays. But yet many of the Red Sox players got off lightly with their suspensions.
Something I feel is quite askew here don't you think ?
See my latest post and let me know what you think as to the merits of the piece ? I'll look forward to reading your comments. The piece is titled Larry Is In But It Could've Been So Much More !
Chimin' out
justan' aka tophatal .........
Last edited by justanotherfan on June 6th at 6:13 PM.
I think the biggest problem with the Rays is the fact that they are terrible hitting with RISP. That's what I think the big problem is with them and not any of the things you've mentioned. Pena started off slow last season and then really heated up after the All Star break. He'll be fine
The Rays shouldn't be scared of the Blue Jays. What makes you think they have learned how to win?
Here we go again !! Ive taken the liberty of giving your Tampa Bay posts to a prominant Psychiatrist in the area. He tells me its one of two things. Either there written by two different people, or there written by a Schizophrenic...
I still want to know who your team is, one team only....
#2 i see your concern about home runs. I remember the first world series that 80s small ball Cardinals team went to. Jack Clark hit only 22, followed by somebody with maybe ten, but they did steal a lot of bases. It can still be done with small ball, how are the Sox, i mean RAYS, doin with steals for the year?
Almost all of the things I mentioned above are an exact lead-in to your point. Pena didn't start the year off hitting cleanup and in fact wasn't on the opening day roster until the day before the season started.
The Jays are finally starting to hit. The pitching will always be fine. Put them together and watch out.
Thank you for the correction on Gross' first name. Gregg was a NL utility outfielder who played about 15 years and it fascinated me as to why. He couldn't hit worth a damn. I'll correct it on the post.
Al - I have seen the replay of the event a whole bunch of times and can't argue with the leagues assessment of the situation. There were a whole lot more Rays "involved" in the altercation. None of the Sox were throwing punches.
I think that Bob Watson was making a statement with all this.
I have been reading the comments you have made back and forth yesterday regarding the situation with the Red Sox-Rays. I am new to this Fox blog and I have a few comments. First, I am a lifelong Yankee fan...grew up in Syracuse and heard my first Yankee game on the radio when Roy White hit a game-winning double (against which team, I don't remember) in 1975. As a Red Sox fan, by the way, you have terrible memories of October '75, I'm sure. Secondly, the rivalry between the Red Sox-Rays, while intriguing right now because both teams are good, will never compare to Boston-NY. Third, I admire your decency and candor in your blog comments...you are proof that not all Red Sox fans have three eyes and horns!
Thank you for your kind comments, but don't think for a minute that I don't have a dark side; especially when it concerns the Yankees. My wife just returned from a trip to the Great Liberal Northeast. She brought back a navy blue baseball cap with a picture of a kid wearing a Red Sox shirt peeing on a Yankee logo. It was great!
I used to work in Syracuse many years ago, Liverpool actually. I liked it up there.
bosox61
The real problem here was there was something festering prior to the incident.
And that's where I feel that the umpires should've been more proactive.
But then again these are the same guys who'd rather inteject themselves into games rather than adjudicating them judicioulsy.
I have to agree with the comments on home runs not being important. They're glamorous, after all "chicks dig the long ball", but in the whole scheme of things they are mostly irrelevant. Two comments on that: first, recall the Yankees of 1998 - one of the great teams of the last 25 years and the highest home run total was Tino Martinez who had 28. Second, there is no denying a well-placed home run is great drama - can you say "Aaron bleepin' Boone" bosox61?
By the way, Liverpool is where my parents lived when I was born.
I guess I am older than you...but now that I think about it, I'm older than everybody. I saw Mickey and Yogi and Whitey play in Fenway Park. I saw Willie play in the Polo Grounds. God, I'm old.
bosox61
If they're now fighting amongst themselves in the dugouts. Then that to me suggests that they're more of a team now than ever before.
I for one would like to see them keep up that level of consistency in their play.
That way they'd finally begin to prove a lot of the naysayers wrong !
I don't agree with that. Young people have a tendency to "take sides" and taking sides polarizes a clubhouse.
What I believe is one more episode from Garza like this one and like the meltdown he had in his previous start and he's in Durham. Maddon won't put up with that kind of ####
Garza appears to be a loose cannon and it seems to me he could use some anger management counceling.
bosox61
What led to the incident in the first place ? And if so then who's to blame ?
For far too long Maddon has had this laid back attitude. He ought to be laying it down to his players what's expected of 'em as players on and off the field.
This isn't solely just about one player losing his cool . But the identity of the team as a whole.
This is pure speculation on my part. I think Garza has issues. The start he had before yesterday was a classic example of someone who is not in control of his emotions. A couple of things went wrong and his demeanor on the mound totally changed. Upon seeing this, Maddon hastilly warmed someone up but Garza had to stay in the game for at least 4 batters before the pen was ready. Every pitch made it worse for him. By the time they could get him out of the game he was a shell of what he was the inning before.
He appears to develop tunnel vision and takes control when he has no control. Navarro is on the field trying to manage him and he wasn't listening to him. As a result he got shelled. It appeared Navi called him on his #### in the dugout and Garza wasn't having any of it.
I think that the incident is isolated but it does nmake you wonder how tightly Garza is wrapped.
As you know, I have been critical od Maddon as a field manager but dealing with the ballclub as a whole he has been magnificent. He doesn't take a lot of #### from players who don't behave to the standards that he feels are acceptable.
This is going to be an interesting one to follow. Unfortunately the Rays are about as closed mouthed a team as I have ever seen so we probably are never going to find out what the actual situation is or was.
bosox61
It'll definitely be worthwhile watching this as it unfolds.
Maddon has got this team playing on an even keel. But at the same time these type of things can tend to happen in a clubhouse. It's not only to the manager to rein this in but also the leaders and more seasoned veterans within the clubhouse.
And being that this is such a young side one suppose that it has to be left to Maddon to deal with this.
I've also been watching to see how things'll unfold also concerning the allegations surrounding the Bucs' Jerramy Stevens. Either way both Gruden and Allen are in a place where they definitely don't want to be.
I don't know if you're much of boxing fan. But I've a two new pieces up. One deals with the enshrinement of Larry Holmes into the Int'l Boxing Hall of Fame . It's titled Larry Is In But It Could've Been So Much More !
I've also done a piece on the unfolding saga of the NBA Finals. With all of the craziness that's been occuring concerning the officiating one has to wonder if the fix isn't on .
That piece is titled Might I Have The Temerity To Suggest ?
As and when you're ready let me know what you think as to the merits of the piece ? I'll look forward to reading your comments.
I HAVE SEEN THEM IN PERSON A FEW TIMES THIS YEAR AND THEY HAVE ONE THING THAT A LOT OF THE TEAMS IN THE MAJORS DON'T. CHARISMA. THEY HAVE AN OUTSTANDING DEFENSE. THE PITCHING HAS FINALLY COME AROUND, ALTHOUGH I AGREE ABOUT MADDEN WASTING HIS STARTERS. I SAW TWO GAMES IN A WEEK WHERE LATE HE SHOULD HAVE YANKED THEM ON HIS TRIP TO THE MOUND, BUT HE LEFT THEM IN AND THEY BLEW THE LEAD. SOMEHOW THEY WON THE GAMES THOUGH(ONE WAS A 14 INNING BEAUTY). THEY HAVE THE ABILITY TO PLAY "SMALL BALL" AS WELL WHEN THEY REALLY NEED IT. AND THE TWO OUT HITTING HAS BEEN EXCELLENT, NOT TO MENTION THEY HAVE BEEN PUTTING DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE HITS COLUMN ON A REGULAR BASIS PLAYING THE SMALL BALL GAME. IT'S NOT ALWAYS THE BEST TEAM THAT WINS, BUT SOMETIMES IT THE SMARTEST TEAM. WITH THE STARTERS GOING THE WAY THEY HAVE BEEN, I'D PUT THEM UP AGAINST MOST OF THE MAJOR LEAGUE STARTERS.AND WITH THE OUTSTANDING DEFENSE AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT COMES WITH WINNING, THEY'LL BE ALRIGHT. WILL THEY WIN THE DIVISION, NO. BUT THEY WILL PULL THE WILD CARD, AND MAKE IT TO THE ALCS.
I GUESSS TIME WILL TELL...YOUR OPINION IS JUST THAT AND FROM WHAT I READ WAY OFF BASE...BASEBALL IS A FUNNY GAME AND YOU JUST NEVER KNOW WHOS GONNA WIN AT TIMES..
You clearly seem to watch a lot of the Rays games on television, and are familiar with the players. You also truly appear to be a solid baseball fan, which is good to see. Your enthusiasm and passion for baseball are evident as well.
However, a lot of the points you make do not make any sense, as you do not have a grasp on some key issues.
For starters, you seem to care way too much on batting average. It is 2008 now, we are passed that, and there are many other forms to evaluate the actual an offensive value a player adds to his team.
First of all, a team does not need to have that one ultimate slugger to carry a team. B.J. Upton has not hit for the power many have expected, sitting with just five home runs to this point of the season. You are right about one thing, though, Upton is the Rays' most valuable offensive player--at least he has been so far in '08--as he his .404 on-base percentage is second in the American League. The point of an offense is to score runs, not have the highest batting average, which is why OBP is far more valuable metric when evaluating offensive performance. From that standpoint, B.J., also among leaders with 40 runs scored, is one of the league's best.
Carl Crawford is an overrated player, you are right about that, but not because he cannot bunt or effectively do his part in the hit-and-run play. Bunting, of course, wastes an out, and the last thing you want with a player with Crawford's ability to cause havoc on the bases is to go to the dugout, possibly killing the chance for a big inning. The real reason why Crawford is not livi
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up to the hype is his terrible OBP--.309. He could never be a successful leadoff hitter solely for that reason. The man just does not get on base enough, and his slugging percentage is only .366 as well. The steals are exciting to watch, but Crawford's OPS of .675 is horrendous, and he is one of the major reasons for the Rays' inability to score runs at times. He is (incorrectly) considered to be the Rays' best player, because he steals bases and makes highlight-reel plays in left field. But he by no means anywhere close to being the team's best player, as he is responsible for far too many outs. Just like the myth that Delmon Young was good in '07--when he was in the top five in the league in outs made--the Tampa Bay announcers are dead wrong about Crawford's value as an offensive player.
Crawford has basically been worse than a replacement level-caliber player this season, with an OPS+ below the league average of 100. His four home runs are concerning as well. While 65 games is a small sample size, he is just not getting it done, largely because of his terrible plate discipline.
Your fourth point is valid. Gabe Gross is a great defensive outfielder, an excellent replacement for the late innings. But his .247, .324, .473 is horrendous, and while Eric Hinske got off to a good start, he is truly not a capable everyday outfielder. His defense is too much of a liability to run him out there in right field on a nightly basis.
5. Think sample size with Carlos Pena. While he will not hit 46 homers again this season, the numbers will be there for him at the end of the sea
season, the numbers will be there for him at the end of the season. He is not "killing the team" right now by being in the cleanup spot, though.
6. This is the point where your thinking is fatally flawed. Why on earth would Jason Barlett, a marginal offensive player at best, be a nice option in the number two spot? Because he is a good bunter, something that studies show make little impact in a team's ability to score runs over a large sample size? For the first and second spots in the lineup, a team must put players who have the ability to get on base. A lineup will get the most value when it puts its highest OPS producer and best purer hitter at three, with its slugging percentage leader in the cleanup spot. The next guys with the highest OBPs--assuming the three and four hitters may be leading this category--first and second, respectively.
Bartlett, however, cannot get on base, and really never has shown the ability to do so in his entire professional career, dating back to the minors. Right now, he has a horrendous .283 on-base percentage. And I mean horrendous, even for a nine hitter. You cannot justify putting a player with such a low OBP in the two spot, you just can't, not if the team expects to score more than two runs per game over a full season. You love batting average, but he is hitting just .237 in 219 at-bats. To get up near .300, like you say he will, he will have to hit above .400 for the remainder of the year, which will not happen. His presence in the lineup is justified by his outstanding defense at shortstop, and his range has helped the Rays' pit
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pitching staff out dramatically, getting to balls that would normally fall in as base hits. But, at the plate, he has been a disaster.
What evidence do you have to think he will end up near .300, though? Because he hit .309 in 99 games in 2006, the only time he came close to that mark in the past five years? He posted a line of .265, .339, .361 in 2007 for the Twins, and would be lucky to end up with those numbers again.
Honestly, how could a player with the team's lowest OPS and on-base percentage--in addition to every traditional stat as well--be wasted in the nine spot? The nine spot is where he belongs, as he is the Rays' worst hitter and should receive the least amount of at-bats of Tampa Bay regulars. I see where you err here, though, as you are relying on images and your preconceived beliefs about what a two hitter should do, and on a few occasions you have seen Bartlett steal a base, drop down a nice sacrifice bunt, or hit the ball to the right side--on a few occasions. The great thing about stats like VORP, though, is it kills images and beliefs--one's mental models--and takes away the subjectivity of evaluating a player's worth. At the plate, Jason Bartlett has little, and the Rays would be making a grave mistake putting him in the two spot, possibly preventing the team from realistically remaining in the Wild Card race.
With the Maddon comments, I have this to say. In what other industry does a middle manager make important decisions like a manager in a baseball game? Joe Maddon is a middle manager, and gets too much credit when the Rays win and too much
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me when the Rays lose. A general manager, and the roster he creates, is what will ultimately decide the fate of a franchise over a long season. Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman are excellent in their roles, and deserve credit for the organization's turnaround. In-game decisions--lineup, pinch hit, bunt, ect...--truly have a little impact over a long season, a large sample size, despite what Joe Morgan and other announcers tell you on television. Maddon is great for this team, though, for what he does in the clubhouse. He has the team motivated and ready to play, the most important thing a manager can do for a team--certainly far more important than deciding to tweak with a lineup a few times over the course of a 162-game season.
Here is why the Rays have a shot--excellent pitching and defense. The team has the third-highest defensive efficiency rating--the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs--largely due to the addition of Bartlett at shortstop. The offense will never be great, with too many low-OBP guys getting so many at-bats, but Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and co. have the ability to push this team towards a postseason run. A lot has to happen, sure, but pitching and defense are the best indicators of predicting a team's future success. Those '05 Chicago White Sox, by the way, did not win the World Series due to Paul Konerko. Rather, it was their league-best starting pitching, as they had the lowest team ERA in the majors. Their offense was poor, however, and finished only ninth among 14 AL teams with 741 runs scored. They did not win because
of their offense, or small ball, or Ozzie Guillen. They won because Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras and Jon Garland all won more than 14 games, leading the team into and then pitching well in the playoffs. Konerko had a great year, hitting .278, .375, .534 with 40 home runs and 100 RBIs, but the Chicago lineup that year was quite terrible overall
I appreciate you comments and your passion too. I wished you lived next door. We could have some interesting discussions. And yes, I see a lot of Rays games. In fact I have only missed three this year. I have seen a bucket full of home games in person and am grateful for the opportunity to do so.
No argument on the White Sox pitching in '05 but Konerko was about the only offense they had and you can't win games if you don't score a run no matter how good your pitching is.
I have always have problems with the VORP science. It seems to take away from one of the more important aspects of a successful ballplayer. That being what is between the ears. I have probably dismissed it mostly because Ultramega was such a proponent of it and he is no longer welcome on my blog.
Your case against Bartlett is a sound one but I have got that feeling....
There is definitely a human element to baseball, more so than some sabermetricians would like to believe. Hitting is such a mental thing, "between the ears" like you say. There is so much luck involved in baseball that a hitter must have the right mental approach at the plate, something that they have ultimate control over. Jason Barlett, however, has a terrible approach to offense. The great thing about sabermetrics, though--contrary to what many in the exclusive "country club" of baseball people fail to give credence to,--is the stuff works when evaluating what value a player actually contributes to a baseball team. It is not an ultimate predictor of future success, because there are other unforeseen human elements that can negatively or positively impact a player's performance--family problems, other off-the-field issues, injuries, ect... Regardless, it is still the most accurate way to predict future performance.
More important, though, it tells us what actual value a player added in a completed season--how many runs did a player create, how good is he really?--without relying on "feelings," hunches, what announcers tell you on TV or images and beliefs. The problem many people have with "VORP science" is that goes against everything they have been told about baseball for so long, and many people refuse to recognize the basis principles of sabermetrics solely for that reason. People want to believer Derek Jeter is a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, because the media and former player thinks so. When you look at his past performance at the position, however,--based
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off of his range, and how many balls that go through as hits because he cannot get to them--you realize, wow, he is hurting the Yankees by being out at the position, from a defensive standpoint. Likewise with hitting as well. People see a player get a nice hit, drop down a nice bunt, steal a base a few times in person or on television. These "mental models" stick with that person, and leads them to think the player at hand is excellent. No matter how many times you watch a baseball game, though--even the best fans cannot see every team's game--solely watching is not the way to determine which player adds the most value.
Sabermetrics take these subjective, mostly inaccurate, mental models out of the equation. With Bartlett, you want to put him in the two spot for a hunch, because you "got that feeling." This is exactly where people go wrong in baseball; over a large sample size, hunches even out. Barlett has never shown the ability to get on base enough to get placed in the number two spot. He hit in that spot in Minnesota on occasion because Ron Gardenhire did not understand how to get the most out of his lineup. Just because he steals 20 bases--which adds less value to a team than one may think, especially if he does not steal at a success rate of 75 percent or higher--is a good "bunter," as you say, and knows how to hit and run. Barlett, though, is a bad offensive player, always has been, and assuming he does not all the sudden find the keys to getting on base, always will be. He will never get on base enough to hit in the two spot, period. Going on a “feeling”
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and putting him in there despite objective, rather than subjective, opinion would kill the Rays’ offense.
You have been taught your whole life to think bunts, hit and runs, ect…, are good, the so-called "right way to play baseball." But studies prove time and time again that--while they may work here and there--they are often misused early in the game, costing teams a huge rally, and thus runs scored and wins over a large sample size. Essentially, “small ball,” which is one of the most overrated strategies in all of sports (if not all of business in any industry anywhere), is “the wrong way,” or at least the most inefficient way to play baseball. Many people refuse to accept it because it means sticking with the status quo, what they have been told works for years. It is difficult for many to accept they have been fed a bunch of bull from announcers their whole lives, and, when they think something is true for so long, they just refuse to acknowledge the new, more valuable information. The small ball philosophy gets by for teams who have the Chicago White Sox of rotation of 2005, which made up for the team's sluggish, horrendous offense. If that White Sox team had more guys who got on base, they would have been dominant, absolutely dominant. It is interesting, this concept did not start with Bill James, rather Branch Rickey, who always found ways to exploit the inefficiencies in the baseball market and was arguably the greatest general manager in the history of Major League Baseball.
Last edited by raysfan111 on June 12th at 8:33 AM.
VORP science is also not as confusing as one might think. It really is pretty easy. Most fans love stats, but they are just looking at the wrong stats, ones which do not tell you as much as the sabermetric categories. Batting average, for instance, is the prime example. The stat everyone believes is so crucial.
The point of the game is not to have the highest batting average, however. It is too score as many runs as possible. Thus, a player who hits .260 with an OBP of .358 and a decent slugging percentage will help a team score runs more frequently than a player who has a .310 batting average, .330 OBP and a poor slugging percentage. It is not opinion—based off of hunches or images—rather an objective, proven FACT.
Juan Pierre is a great example, although he is getting on base in 2008 more consistently than he ever has in his entire career. Growing up, I thought Pierre was awesome—he was exciting, stole bases, hit .300 (which we are all told is the ultimate accomplishment). I, and many others, failed to take into account that his OBP was embarrassingly low, he hit a soft .300, mostly singles, and did not score as many runs as he should have for a player with his one outstanding tool, speed. Then there were the steals. But, in some seasons, even the ones in which he stole more than 50 bases, he got thrown out far too many times, thus hurting his team’s chances for scoring runs over a large sample size. People wanted to believe he was a good leadoff hitter, because he did the things people associate with leadoff hitters—their mental models—bunting for base hits, stealing bases, infield hits, ect… But the most important thing for a leadoff hitter, the only real thing a leadoff hitter must do, is get on base to set the table for the rest of the lineup, seeing a lot of pitches in the process. Essentially, Pierre was responsible for making too many outs, and received too many at-bats for such a poor offensive player. Pierre, and Corey Patterson as well, do not have the ability to get on base or see pitches, and the fact that they bat leadoff shows how some baseball men (Dusty Baker, cough) simply have no idea what they are talking about. Their past experiences in baseball add little value, because they were taught the “right way” to play baseball in their playing days, rely on hunches and m
ental models, rather than objective facts, and refuse to listen to people—most of whom are far more intelligent; see Epstein, Theo—who never played the game. Again, in what other industry does a middle manager get to make decisions that affect a company’s primary product so drastically?
I encourage you to be open-minded with the progressive baseball movement occurring in baseball today. You will probably begin to love baseball even more, because you will understand it better, truly understand it that is. Trust me, I was anti-Moneyball until about five months ago, and now kick myself for not converting to sabermetrics sooner. Read Moneyball if you have not done so, it is an excellent read.
Most people who criticize the book—Joe Morgan being the prime example—refuse to read it. How can one criticize something it does not understand? When that happens, they look foolish, which Morgan does every Sunday night of the week. It has been proven that he makes up stories, and, quite frankly, does not know what makes a team win ballgames. Assuming you have not read it, do so. The book is about exploiting inefficiencies, whatever they might be, and is not about “being cheap,” which far too many unintelligent pundits think. They say “Moneyball” does not work in the playoffs. But, it does. Your Boston Red Sox, if you were unaware, are the ultimate Moneyball team, and Epstein, not Francona, is the reason why your wait for a championship to come to Boston, finally, is over. Epstein understands that finding inefficiencies in the market, and exploiting them—especially when the team does, in fact, have unlimited financial resources (unlike in Oakland)—works like a charm. He is the best general manager in the game today, because he is open-minded, values OBP more than batting average, and does not tie up money into players on the decline. The Red Sox are going to be good for a long time, solely because of Epstein and John Henry, who both love sabermetrics. Henry, a longtime reader of Bill James Baseball Abstract, made his money on Wall Street, and, as mentioned in Moneyball (where he is featured on many pages) would rather rely on objective data than “images or beliefs” and is a staunch supporter of the stuff you do not like. The book foreshadows Boston's
future success with Henry, who actually was set to sign Billy Beane for a record contract for a GM after the 2002 season, taking over. Beane declined at the last second, though, leading to the signing of Epstein, the young Yale grad who never played baseball. Esptein and Henry, relying on the most important baseball tool, intelligence, are more valuable to the Red Sox than any one player could ever be. The reason the Red Sox win is because of their progressive management, who get the right personnel based on the “VORP science” you do not agree with. You should be lucky Henry and co do, because, if not, the Curse of the Babe would still exist. The Red Sox are here to stay, and that progressive ownership group is the reason why. Boston is the ultimate Moneyball team, plus they have money—an unstoppable combination.
Its all about baseball! Big Leagues, Minors, College, HS or Little League. I seem to be happiest when I'm watching it in one form or another.
As a "long-in-the- tooth" Red Sox fan I have buried many familly members who only got to see my beloved Sox get close. The adjustment in going from a fatalist to a believer concerning the Sox has not been easy for me. I think I may have behaved badly as a fan during this years championship season.It's like learning to write left-handed when you have been right-handed all your life. I follow the Patriots, Boston College Football and college basketball. There is only a little bit of baseball when those sports play.
I only care about the game. If it happens outside the stadium, it is not my business.a>
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