TIME FOR A REALITY CHECK! A little more than 1/4 of the baseball season has been played and it is time that I step back and take an objective look at what has happened in Major League Baseball and specifically, the American League so far this year.

Those of you who have graciously bothered to read my posts from the past month or so have probably noticed that I have become smitten with the 2008 version of the Tampa Bay Rays. This past weekend series in St. Louis has kind of brought me back to Earth. I haven’t given up on the Rays but I shuddered on both Saturday and Sunday when they handed two games to the Cardinals that they didn’t have to. That old feeling of doom that I have lived with for the past 10 years here in Pinellas County, Florida is obviously not gone and managed to insert its ugly head into my conscious being yesterday.

My beloved Red Sox finished a sweep of the Brewers Sunday afternoon and the Celtics somehow managed to hold off the Cavaliers to move into the Eastern Conference finals in the NBA. While both of those games were going on, the Rays were putting Cardinal base runners on inning after inning via the dreaded walk and it seemed like they were daring the St. Louis hitters to do something about it. In the ninth inning they finally did, and ended up taking 2 of the 3 games of a series in which they very well could have been swept if the Rays had played with the same efficiency that they have for most of the season so far. In spite of the Red Sox and Celtics successes, I was depressed. I couldn’t even look at the box scores until this morning.

I must admit that I have been caught up in “Rays fever” since the beginning of spring training. But being eight games over .500 and having the best record in the American league in the middle of May had put me into a land of fantasy. In my mind, I already had the Rays and the Red Sox playing in the American League championship series and was very concerned as to how I was going to handle that. This weekend brought me back to reality and made me realize that I was getting a little carried away with the success the Rays have had so far.

The truth is, from my point of view anyway, that this might be the most competitive American League season in years and years. I still think the Red Sox and the Angels are the class of the league but there doesn’t seem to be any patsies for them to feast on.

In the East, the Yankees will improve when A-Rod and Posada come back from the DL. They don’t have enough pitching to get it done and the everyday players are getting old but they are still the Yankees and will make life difficult for everyone else. The Orioles have been a pleasant surprise and can’t be taken lightly. The Jays cannot continue the dismal hitting forever and when it starts to happen, combined with that great starting pitching, they will make life uncomfortable for everyone else in the American League.

I don’t see anybody beating the Indians in the Central but it will be close. The Twins can play and they are as fundamentally sound a team as there is in the league.  The Royals have improved significantly and the Tigers can’t stay as bad as the have been for much longer. There is too much competition for the Indians to pull away. If there is one team in the American League that I can’t get a handle on, it’s the White Sox. They currently lead the Central but I can’t figure out why. They come to St. Pete at the end of next week and maybe I’ll figure something out then.

The Angels should walk away with the west but the A’s won’t go away quietly. They will make some noise and cause some disappointments before Billy Beane has his fire sale. I can’t help but to believe that the Mariners are a much better team than they have shown so far. I think the Rangers will hang close to .500 for most of the year, which will cause problems for everyone else, who traditionally looks at them as a team to fatten up their records with. Josh Hamilton (this years MVP) will see to that.

So there it is. The Red Sox and the Angels will take their divisions handily. The Indians will squeak out a close one in the Central and the Rays or the Jays or the White Sox or the Tigers or the Twins or the A’s will win the wild card unless the Orioles or the Royals continue to surprise or the Rangers find some pitching and defense. 

I know that I am going out on a limb here with these definitive choices but what the heck, I’m a risk taker.