Part one of seven

The most common draft strategy used by many fantasy team owners is to draft running backs in round one and two. Some even take backs in the first three rounds. But if everyone does this how would anyone separate their team from other teams besides injuries? This year there are four QBs you should consider in the first round as well. This doesn’t mean to skip RBs all together, but consider other options.

This year is the year you can finally get an edge. This doesn’t mean you need to draft a kicker in round three, you still should be drafting your kicker dead last. What you may need is a new strategy. If everyone is using the same strategies usually the only thing that separates your team from theirs is dumb luck.

The era of the three down back is over. In 2007 the NFL saw it lowest total of 300 carry backs (6) since 1999. There are a lot of quality backs you can get after the RB draft frenzy is over. In fact there are only a few backs worthy of round one status. Lets break it down.

Round 1 RBs

1. LaDanian Tomlinson – he is healthy and a fantasy stud, he is worthy of a number one overall pick.

2. Adrian Peterson – Peterson is unstoppable at times and can rack up monstrous fantasy numbers against any team any week. Worthy of a top 5 pick.

3. Steven Jackson – Jackson was injured in 2007 and the Ram offense was a non-factor. In 2008 big things are expected from Jackson and unless he holds out for a long period of time he is worthy of your round one pick in the 4-8 range.

4. Joseph Addai- The Colts offense is predicated on the ability of Peyton Manning to be able to run play action passes. This makes Addai’s role very important again in 2008 and he should deliver as well. Addai is a "inside the 5 guy" as well (see below)He is worthy of your round one pick in the 4-8 range.

5. Brian Westbrook – Westbrook does it all in Philly. He runs well, catches the ball, and blocks. Westbrook and McNabb should both have good years, but Westbrook is the key to it all and they will use him as such. He is also worthy of your round one pick between 5-10.

Round 2 RBs

Frank Gore had a bit of a down year after his breakout season in 2006. But with a new offense coordinated by Mike Martz Gore should flourish once again. Gore could be yours at pick 10-13.
Larry Johnson is back and ready to go. He is rated low this year based off of last years stats. Last season he held out almost all of camp and then was injured. The Chief’s offense has a bright spot and it shines on Johnson. He may fall all the way to the end of round 2 or even into round 3.

Clinton Portis is now under the West Coast offense in Washington. Portis will get more catches and should be better in 2008 with a healthy shoulder. He should go early in the 2nd round.

Marshawn #### is the number one back in Buffalo and could have another good season. He was a surprise as a rookie and should be able to build on that to haveyet a n even bigger 2008. #### should go in the 2nd round for sure.

Marion Barber is now the featured back in Dallas. With an offense like the Cowboys have he could have yet his biggest season yet. He hasn’t been at his best as the featured back in the past when Julius Jones was out, but Jones is gone now and Barber doesn’t have a choice but to be the man. Barber may go early in round 2 but he would be better late in round 2 or early round three.

Best of the Rest

Jamal Lewis is part of a very potent Cleveland attack. He was one of the better RBs last season but is still ranked too low in pre-draft rankings. You could snag him as late as round 5!

Matt forte is a rookie in Chicago this year and is going to be the featured back. First Cedric Benson was arrested twice and then swiftly cut. Then the Bears brought in former Lion Kevin Jones but he is still hurt yet again from last season. Forte may slip under the radar onto your roster in round 4 or later.

One-Two Punch

These are the players that if you draft one you need to get the other.

Willie Parker is still the one in the one-two punch in Pittsburgh. Parker will get the bulk of the load ahead of rookie Rashard Mendenhall.

Kevin Smith is a rookie in Detroit where they team has changed from a pass happy offense to a run oriented zone blocking scheme used in Denver. Tatum Bell is the veteran of the duo. Bell started the first 5 games last year until Kevin Jones returned. However once Jones did return, Bell was deactivated in all 11 weeks after.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor may actually have better numbers as a duo in 2008 with the additions to the already stout defense. The offense should be on the field even more so they will be solid picks once again.
Don’t Forget Backs

Brandon Jacobs, Darren McFadden, Edgerin James, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Thomas Jones, Julius Jones, TJ Duckett, Reggie Bush, and Michael Turner should all be available after you have filled your other starters at every other position.

RBs to Stay Away from Early


Laurence Maroney- The Patriots use so many backs and Maroney has been injured so many times that you should pick him with caution. He should be a late round find instead of an early round buster without the rhymes.

Willis McGahee is highly ranked and lowly productive. The Ravens offense is terrible and the QB situation may change every week making Willis a weak pick. Hope that another fantasy owner goes bananas and drafts him in the 2nd round.



Handy Dandy Chart

Here is another way to look for a RB late in your draft that can have an impact on your season. With so many teams running by committee it is very important to have the back that teams go to in the red zone. Although some of the players didn’t rack up a ton of points last year that doesn’t mean they won’t in 2008. You should seriously consider these numbers when determining one player ahead of another.


Here are the top ten go to backs when it matters. They may not be your franchise back but they each had at least 200 carries.

Player                              carries                inside the 5

Jamal Lewis                    298                      
    22

Joseph Addai                  261                           18

Clinton Portis                  324                           17

LaDanian Tomlinson    315                           17

Thomas Jones               310                           15

Willis McGahee              294                           14

Earnest Graham            222                           14

LenDale White                304                          13

Marion Barber                 201                          13

Edgerin James              323                           11

 

  Well it isn't like the Vikings organization is known as the example of the class of the league.  With all the publicity the "Sexboat Scandal" received in 2005, the organization was forced to rebuild. 

  In 2007 the Vikings don't have another boat scandal, they have another image problem.  The Vikings have lowered the bar again. 

  Last Sunday WR Troy Williamson missed the Vikings win over the Chargers that saw Adrian Peterson break the NFL record for rushing yards (296) in a game and surpass 1,000 yards after only eight games.  Williamson was in South Carolina attending his maternal Grandmother's funeral.

from Twincities.com:

After the death last week of his maternal grandmother, Williamson rejoined the Vikings on Wednesday and participated in practice. But he lamented that he could not spend more time with his family, particularly his brother Carlton, who is still in a coma after a car accident, even after the club withheld his paycheck.

"I don't care if (the Vikings) would have took my pay for the rest of the year, I was going home," Williamson said. "It wouldn't have mattered to me. No matter what (Brad Childress) would have said, if I had to stay up here or not, I would have been at my house (in South Carolina) for that week."

Williamson regretted that he could not spend more time with Carlton after his car accident two months ago. But when his grandmother Celestine, who helped raise him and taught him to cook and drive, died, Williamson said he had to go home.

"I feel like the thing with my brother, I let that slide," Williamson said. "This is something I couldn't put on the back burner. But when this came up, I had to get up out of here."

Williamson declined to comment, when asked if Childress was understanding.

"It's really been hard for me," Williamson said. "I was glad to go home and see my family. It was something that really helped me. I just got to push through the season." 


I guess they don't have Bereavement pay, they have a death tax.  How is it that an organization can do this to someone who has "play" in his job title.  When you play football or any other sport, keeping perspective on life is getting dimmer it seems.  Even our armed forces come back from a real war for something like this.  They don't get docked a weeks pay do they?
 

11/11/07 Change of heart by the Vikings.   Mike OHara of the Detroit News commented in his blog-

" The Minnesota Vikings are reacting to public pressure -- and public embarassment -- by giving back a game check to wide receiver Troy Williamson for missing a game to attend his grandmother's funeral. The Vikings probably were within their rights not to pay a player who did not participate in a game. But that doesn't make it right. As I once heard when I covered horse racing, somebody who'd gotten the shaft said: "That may be correct, but it ain't right." The Vikings need a director of common sense."

NFC North Preview

I will keep this brief due to the amount that could be written and speculated about but will be changed within sometimes just a few weeks and the fact there hasnt been one preseason game played yet.

This year there are three new coaches in the NFC North division. Minnesota hired Brad Childress, Green Bay hired Mike McCarthy and Detroit hired Rod Marinelli. Each team has made plenty of changes as well. Chicago is still considered by many as the favorite to win the division. The division may also only send one team to the playoffs though as far as I see it.

These predictions are null and void at anytime due to season ending injuries in the preseason to starters:

Green Bay - they drafted A.J. Hawk and signed Charles Woodson to solidify an already good 2005 Defense. In 2005 Green Bay finished with the 7th rated overall defense. The big problems they will have will more than likely be related to the offense and the kicking game. They signed former Cowboys kicker Billy Cundiff and he only had a 62.5% field goal percentage in 2005. Samkon Gado is slated to be the starting running back as well. He will be running behind possibly one of the worst offensive lines this year and have a Brett Favre back at quarterback. The biggest X factor for Green Bay this year is whether they get the Brett Favre of old or an old Brett Favre. My guess is that it is the ladder of the two.

Chicago - The Bears come into the 2006 with a good ole fashion quarterback controversy brewing with the signing of quarterback Brian Griese. He may be the better quarterback as well. Rex Grossman has been injured for the majority of his short career. The Bears will need the quarterback position to be serviceable and Cedric Benson to run the ball well with the defense being ranked near the top again this season. In 2005 the Bears finished with the 2nd overall defense despite the fact they had almost one hundred more plays ran on them with that terrible offense they had and led the league in points against with a mere 12.6 points per game. That is almost three points better than the 2nd best points against team Indianapolis (15.4) and they drafted almost all defense in the 2006 draft.

Minnesota - The Vikings are now Daunte free and will excel because of it. Daunte was exposed when Randy Moss was traded to Oakland and his maistakes and impatience caught up to him (5 td 12 int). They started winning when Brad Johnson took over and he is back this year. The most impressive feature the Vikings will have this year is the running game. They have a massive left side of their offensive line with Bryant McKinnie and newly signed LG Steve Hutchinson with newly acquired Chester Taylor to run behind them and the receiving core is basically them same (solid). The issues they had on Defense however may be better this year. Last season they finished right behind Detroit in total defense 21st overall. If they can get the running game going early and often the defensesive numbers will get better.

Detroit - The biggest changes in Detroit come at the quarterback position and coaching. They brought in two guys that were backups last year and hired Mike Martz to make them and the rest of that anemic offense better. Last year Steve Mariucci did not make many adjustments and played all his running backs regularly taking away a lot of snaps from their best back Kevin Jones. Mooch was in love with Shawn Bryson and anyone not named Mike Williams or Charles Rogers. One thing for sure is that Martz will utilized all the players on offense. This year they will have many different looks and adjustments made that weren’t in the past. The issue may be with the defense which was 20th overall last year and gave up just over 21 points per game. They brought in former Jets defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson to improve their defense, and he probably will. The Lions biggest weakness may be the linebackers inability to play due to injuries. Boss Bailey has been injury prone and Teddy Lehman is still out from last season currently listed in the PUP list and they drafted Ernie Sims who is known for speed (4.5 40 time), hard hits, and concussions. Too bad the concussions have all been his. Rod Marinelli comes in as a rookie coach but he is a no nonsense type of coach which the Lions lacked with Mariucci. This year things will be better in the Motor City but it will be a challenge to contend for the division.

Breakout players in the North -

1. Kevin Jones will get most of the snaps and will get more catches out of the back field. He will be a key to the Lions offensive success. He is a hard runner and new coach Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz are very impressed by him thus far.

2. Chester Taylor is going to have a big year rushing with the type of offense and the offensive line they have built. He already had a 4.3 yards per carry average over the last three years in Baltimore.

3. Ryan Longwell has moved indoors in Minnesota and that will work in his favor. He had success in Green Bay but the offense was getting worse by the day there. In Minnesota they will have a solid running game and that will translate into more kicks for Longwell.

Strongest links to each team -

Green Bay - defense will be the only chance they have to win any games,

Minnesota - running game will have its best back since Robert Smith retired

Chicago - the defense may be better than last year if it is even possible

Detroit - the offensive will be so improved that the NFL will forget about their defense even if it is mediocre.

Weakest link to each team -

Green Bay - the entire offense from having the best wide receiver being Donald Driver and still having Brett Favre the kicking game may be non existent especially with Billy Cundiff trying to split the uprights

Minnesota - new head coach will be the biggest obstacle with this team. He will be learning on the fly and does not have the best supporting staff in the division which is important for a rookie head coach

Chicago - Offense will and has been the downfall to the Bears for some time now. That won’t change with the way they drafted all those defensive players this year

Detroit - too many questions on defense and more in particular linebackers. They have some injured linebackers and a rookie slated to start but they need to practice together and that may not happen for a while.

Prediction on final standings before pre season games -

team                                       W-L

Vikings                                  10-6*

Bears                                       9-7

Lions                                       
8-8

Packers                                   5-11



Post pre season prediction on final standings -

Chicago                  13-3
Minnesotta             7-9
Green Bay             6-10
Detroit                    3-13
how is that for waffling?

 

*only playoff team from the North with three teams from the NFC East making it and the rise of Arizona this year

Do you think you know more about sports than me?  lets see you prove it or take a shot.  Go to FanIQ.com and lets see what you got!

    Bush will go #1 to the Texans

 

     This year in the 2006 Nfl draft it appears that there are more safe picks in round 1 than in years past.  Even with the top five to ten players there seems to be more stability with some of these players.  Reggie Bush will go number one and Mario Williams will go number two.  That may be the way it goes down but, we may have someone other than the New Orleans Saints picking at two.  New Orleans hold a key piece to the puzzle of what will happen in the top ten. 

      The Vikings and Rams have both expressed interest in Detroits pick at number nine to move ahead of Arizona and take Jay Cutler from Vanderbilt.  Detroit is interested in Michael Huff and that will factor in what they will do with the no.9 pick.  They also like Ernie Sims the LB from Florida State.  He has had five concussions and that will be a risk factor for which ever team drafts him.  The upside is that he is compared to Derrick Brooks from Tampa Bay.

     The Jets are rumored to like Matt Leinart, but D'Brickshaw Ferguson may be the safest pick in the entire draft.  Besides the Jets just traded for Patrick Ramsey and already have Chad Pennington.  They need someone to block for these guys is what they really need.  Look for the Jets to take D'Brickshaw Ferguson with their first round pick.

     The Bills appear to be willing to trade out of number eight but maybe they should take Cutler.  I havent exactly seen a Buffalo quarterback light up the league since Jim Kelly.


     There are some good picks that are available outside the top 10 as well.  However the good news for NFL fans. This draft class appears that it will make an impact on tomorrows NFL for the better.  The question is who will be this years Andre Ware and who will be this years Tom Brady.