It is hard to believe that the first quarter of the 2007 NFL season is over already, for most teams. However, how many NFL games are won or lost in the first quarter? The NFL is a fourth quarter league. Some teams look out of it and some pretenders look like contenders. There is a fine line between these teams though. Who is good and who is bad? It’s very simple to see isn't it? Not really, but there are a few signs to know if your team is a pretender or an actual contender.

First sign that a team is a contender is the record. After all it is the way teams get into the playoffs. No matter how bad you may think a team is, if they have a winning record they are one step closer to making the playoffs.

Another sign that a team is a contender is, how many times per game do they "shoot themselves in the foot". In other words how many penalties/yards and turnovers are they committing? Is their teams name the Browns?  The Bears and Patriots are the only two teams in 2006 that were in the top ten for both sides of the ball in penalty yards. Both ultimately lost to the Colts, a team that made teams pay all year for making such mistakes.

Who have they beaten so far? It doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t. When playoff times comes, they don’t rank the teams based on who you beat, the playoffs are determined by how many of all the who’s you have beaten.

Remember the old adage "Any given Sunday?" This is when pretenders get beat the most. They lose to teams they are supposed to beat. It is also the same when they win the games they are supposed to lose. You never know which team will show up.

Based on one quarter of the season here is a list of Contenders and Pretenders. It is hard to determine these teams after only 3-4 games but in order to cut down a forest you have to cut one tree at a time. Some teams don’t even know what to cut down a tree with at this point. Others are ready for the Outdoor Games on ESPN. The other factor involved is the schedule ahead.

 Contenders-

First the obvious, going into week five all four undefeated teams have a legitimate shot at glory. These teams include Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and New England. All four teams are 4-0. The Patriots already have a three game lead after only four weeks.

There are a few teams that are 3-1 that are contenders as well. The Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks are both in position to contend. Both teams have big road games this week. Seattle at Pittsburgh and Detroit at Washington. Detroit has never won a road game at Washington either. The Lions are 0-19 against the Redskins in Washington. The last time the Lions won a road game against the Skins was back in the 30's when they were the Boston Redskins. Even if both teams lose this week they are still contenders.

Seattle is the more balanced team of the two but has a much more difficult schedule. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL and have just enough defense to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay fell to this category when they lost Cadillac Williams for the season and Tackle Luke Petitgout. They do look to be the best team in their division with the Saints playing like the Aints again. Jeff Garcia may still have enough mojo left in him to lead them to the playoffs but they seem to still be pretenders.

The Raiders are 2-2 which matches their 2006 season total for wins. But they still haven’t figured out the QB situation and the running game is still suspect if Lamont Jordan is hurt for a long period of time. However Dominic Rhodes who they signed to replace or compete with Lamont Jordan has just finished serving his four game suspension and returned to the team this week. Culpepper was named the AFC offensive player of the week last week for his performance against the Dolphins. Yes he scored five touchdowns overall but Culpepper completed just five of 12 passes for 75 yards. They also have to play the Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers twice. With all these teams combined to be the division of pretenders.

Other pretenders include Arizona and San Francisco. Both teams are 2-2. The Cards employ two QBs which means Leinart has not played well enough to take and hold the starting job and Kurt Warner has one more TD pass also. The 49ers have no offense and have not gelled the defense completely. With Alex Smith’s shoulder injury they may not have a chance to gel the offense again once he comes back, not that it was very good before he was hurt.

The San Diego Chargers became pretenders when they fired Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season and hired Norv Turner. Norv Turner as a head coach has not had a winning season since 1999. He also has a 41% winning percentage for his career with a record of 59-85-1. Schottenheimer had a 200-126-1 (61% winning percentage), had 11 double digit winning teams in 21 years of coaching, and had three straight 10 plus winning seasons with of all teams the Browns.

The Bears are pretenders this year. Defense wins championships when the offense isn’t horrible. Well there offense is horrible. No passing game, no running game, and no quarterback. All this equals a top ten draft pick. Maybe they should take a QB next year.