Easily the hardest team to figure out going into the offseason is the New York Yankees. There are all kinds of questions surrounding the club, and it’s not just your typical New York hype. Will they bring back Joe Torre? Will Alex Rodriguez opt out? Will Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte return? Let’s get to it.

Strengths

In terms of both payroll flexibility and pure talent, the pre-arbitration starting pitchers are the biggest strength on the Yankees. With Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees have four starting pitchers with at least 4 years of service time left before they are eligible for free agency. While all four won’t start the year in the rotation (although you never know, Carl Pavano did start opening day), they will all most likely get a few major league starts in 2008.

Also among the pre-arbitration players on the Yankees are Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. Cano has now put up back-to-back great seasons at second base. Although his batting average fell off from the spectacular .342 of last year to .306 this year, his on-base percentage (.365 to .353) and isolated power (.183 to .182) stayed relatively the same. Meanwhile, Cabrera took over the center field job this season and proved that he could be an effective major league center fielder, but his walk rate did plummet from last year’s 10.9% to 7.3% in 2007. If he can regain those walks, he’ll be an asset on the field as well as in the Yankees’ checkbook.

Flanking Cabrera in the outfield will be two of Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon. Of course, this is assuming that Abreu’s $16M club option will be exercised. Given the low risk of one year deals and the value that Abreu provides on the field, exercising his option should be a foregone conclusion.

Moving on to ... wait, I’m forgetting someone … let’s see, I’ve covered the rotation, the outfield, Cano ... Oh yeah, the captain Derek Jeter will be back in pinstripes for 2008. Despite his defensive shortcomings, Jeter is still a spectacular player to build a team around.

Concerns

Where should we start? The mainstream media seems to have the Torre situation well-covered, so we’ll start with A-Rod. As everyone has heard over and over, Alex Rodriguez and the best agent in baseball Scott Boras are expected to opt out of his 10-year, $252M contract following the World Series. Brian Cashman has stated that the Yankees will not pursue Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out. If they’re unable to sign him to an extension beforehand, I find this hard to believe. If Rodriguez isn’t a Yankee next season, the only other guy on the free agent market is current Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell. Wilson Betemit is the in-house option (some teams wouldn’t consider this a bad thing).

Moving up the age spectrum, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte have made it known that they will be influenced by the Torre decision. Posada is coming off the best year of his career at 35 and will be looking for a multi-year deal. If he does listen to other teams in the offseason, he will be the best catching option on the market. Other options are Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, and Yorvit Torrealba.

Can anyone else see Mariano Rivera in a uniform other than the Yankees? Neither can I, but if Torre is let go, it wouldn’t surprise me for Rivera to leave as well. He didn’t like the way they treated Bernie Williams or his own contract situation back in March. If Rivera doesn’t come back, who will be left in the bullpen? There aren’t many options on the free agent market, and the only options for the closer’s role within the organization are Joba Chamberlain (please leave him in the rotation) and Kevin Whelan. Rivera survived off his cutter, and Whelan is a fastball specialist, throwing four different variations. That transition would seem fitting to me. Whelan just might not be ready to make that jump yet. The free agent reliever merry-go-round features Francisco Cordero with Octavio Dotel (if he opts out of his contract), the wild card Kerry Wood, and the recently ineffective Eric Gagne.

Despite the young starters, the rotation could still need some work. Andy Pettitte has a $16M player option for next season. As mentioned before, his decision might hinge on whether or not Joe Torre returns. At 35, he’s probably not done, but he could be done as a Yankee. I’ve already mentioned four other starters that the Yankees could use, but given their youthfulness, the Yankees probably shouldn’t rely on all three of the unproven youngsters. The biggest reason is to keep the innings total down for each of their arms. If Pettitte, Wang, and Mike Mussina are all in the rotation next season, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy could be rotated between the rotation and the bullpen to limit their innings and keep their arms healthy. Without Pettitte, that becomes hard and if they aren’t ready to go back down the Pavano trail, another option is to sign one of Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers, or Curt Schilling. All three should be looking for relatively short (1-, 2-, or 3-year) deals and would slot right into Pettitte’s spot in the above example.

Right now, they have Jason Giambi, Matsui, Cabrera, Damon, and Abreu to fill the 1B, OF, and DH roles, but the Yankees have never trusted Giambi’s atrocious defense at first base. If they don’t want to play one of the outfielders there, Giambi has no spot and needs to be traded. With only one year and $26M (or two years and $43M) left on the deal, his contract isn’t quite the albatross it once was. If the Yankees chip in a little cash to move him, there will be a market for his services. To replace him, the Yankees could always bring back Doug Mientkiewicz. On the other hand, if they want to bring in a real first baseman (you know, one that can hit), they could always pursue someone like Scott Hatteberg or Adam Dunn (if the Reds buy out his option; anything’s possible – they already hired the assassin at manager).

Overall

Given the loyalty of Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte to Torre, it would be a mistake to get rid of him now. Losing Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte would be hard to overcome for any organization, even one with the financial ability of the Yankees. Supply is low on the free agent market, and these guys would be hard to replace. Add to it the A-Rod situation, and it could be meltdown time for the nuclear reactor known as the New York Yankees. Cashman won’t let this actually happen, but I can’t remember the Yankees ever putting themselves in a position this risky before.

In another story that is far from breaking news (see last post regarding Homer Bailey, which turned out right), Juan Pierre is downright terrible. But I could have told you that years ago as he hasn't had an OBP over .330 since 2004. Anyway, I'm watching the Mets/Dodgers game on CW11, and they mentioned that Jack McKeon always batted Pierre leadoff and Luis Castillo second. Now that Grady Little is batting Juan Pierre second, they think that second is better suited to Pierre's tastes and even use OBP as a reason. However, if he doesn't have an OBP good enough for leadoff, why is it all of a sudden good enough for second?

I took the Dodgers lineup from Sunday and plugged it into the great Lineup Analysis tool available over at Baseball Musings. Here are the results.

Actual Lineup

Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Luis Gonzalez
Nomar Garciaparra
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Eric Stults

Lineup Analysis Best Lineup

Luis Gonzalez
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Nomar Garciaparra
Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Eric Stults

I'm surprised that Furcal is placed in the seven spot, but further inspection makes me believe that he is best suited there. Nomar, Furcal, and Pierre all have lower OBP than the rest of the lineup, so it makes sense that they're at the bottom of the lineup, consuming the fewest at-bats. One interesting by-product of this lineup is that Furcal and Pierre are freer to run at the bottom of the order because the risk is lower without the big bats coming up, and the reward isn't as minimized as the risk because the on-base guys are coming up at the top of the order. You don't need power guys to drive in guys from second after their steals. A single will bring them home just as well as a double or homer.

While I did use the analysis tool in trying to find the optimal lineup, it should be noted that their actual best lineup would look something like this.

Optimal Lineup

James Loney
Matt Kemp
Luis Gonzalez
Russell Martin
Wilson Betemit
Andre Ethier
Rafael Furcal
Jeff Kent
Pitcher

The Dodgers should just realize that the Pierre and Nomar signings are sunk costs, just as they were when the ink was still wet. Bench those two guys and play the better young players (Kemp and Betemit), who on top of being better also have potential to get even better. Betemit has gotten a raw deal due to his low batting average, but his OBP and SLG (.366 and .497) haven't taken the same hit. Just as they were at the start of the season and just as they were at the time of the signings, Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra are overrated and deserve to be on the bench watching Matt Kemp and Wilson Betemit put nearly one more run on the board every night (5.565 to 4.770 runs per game according to the Lineup Analysis tool).