The Angels were completely shut down
in the postseason by the Boston Red Sox. En route to getting outscored 19-4
over three games, the Angels had to deal with key injuries. Vladimir Guerrero
had a triceps strain going into the series, and a hit by pitch resulted in shoulder
problems. Garret Anderson had an eye infection heading into the playoffs, and
his performance suffered accordingly. However, there is good news moving
forward as every key component of this year’s team is returning (unless you
consider Bartolo Colon a key component – I don’t).
Strengths
The top of the rotation was great
during the regular season. With John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Kelvim Escobar
coming back, the Angels have three spots covered for next season. The three
star pitchers are backed up by a very good relief trio of Justin Speier, Scot
Shields, and Francisco Rodriguez. Shields has seen a decrease in innings four
straight years as he’s shifted from long relief/spot starter to set-up man, and
he also set a career high in ERA this year at 3.86. Usually, a career high is a
good thing, but not here. These things happen as players age, but even Shields’s
worst performance was still pretty good.
I’ve heard many people talk about
Vladimir Guerrero being in decline, but his numbers don’t tell quite the same
story. In 2006, Vlad hit .329/.382/.552. This year, he hit .324/.403/.547. On a
rate basis, he actually improved due to the increased OBP. Add this to the fact
that he only had 33 fewer plate appearances this year, and you end up with Vlad
having a better year this year than last year. One could argue that he has
declined from his peak, and that’s definitely true, but the talk I’ve been
hearing would make you believe that he’s declined significantly since last
year. Whether or not he is actually declining is a non-issue for 2008 because
he’ll still be a force in the middle of the lineup.
Concerns
General manager Bill Stoneman has
a mutual option for 2008 in which he can come back as either the GM or a consultant.
How the Angels approach this offseason could depend on who is behind the wheel
of the organization. At this time, it’s hard to tell if this will be a good or
bad thing for the team down the road.
The back end of the rotation is
the only major concern on the field, but even that isn’t that major. Right now,
it appears like the fourth and fifth slots are Ervin Santana’s and Joe Saunders’s
to lose. Santana worsened mightily this season as he saw his ERA go from 4.28
to 5.76. The reasoning is that Santana came down with a serious case of
gopheritis. After giving up 21 HR in 204 innings in 2006, he gave up 26 HR in
just 150 major league innings this year. If that problem can be corrected
before next April, the Angels will have their rotation set up pretty nicely as
they defend their division title.
Overall
The Angels should have a good
shot at the AL West title for several years without making any major changes,
but there have been rumors that there could be several major changes this
offseason. It has been rumored that owner Arte Moreno could throw money at
Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Johan Santana on the free agent and trade
markets. Imagine a middle of the order with A-Rod, Bonds, and Vlad. Imagine a
rotation with Johan, Lackey, Weaver, and Escobar in the top four spots. Now
imagine both being on the same team. They’d be World Series favorites if they made
those changes, but even without them, they have a strong shot at repeating as
AL West Champs.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
