After a second-place finish last year, the Blue Jays are back in their customary #3 spot, where they have finished 8 of the last 10 seasons.
The Good
A couple of 39 year old hitters have put up pretty good seasons. Frank Thomas has been able to stay healthy for a whole season and continues to prove that he can still hit. Matt Stairs is the big surprise here, logging play in the outfield corners and first base while hitting .295/.374/.560.
Everyone knew that the front of the rotation would pitch well when healthy, and they've proven that to be the case. A.J. Burnett might never post 30 starts in a season again, but he and Roy Halladay are a pretty good top 2. Joining them in the rotation have been a pretty effective trio of Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. Once the rotation gives the ball to the bullpen, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, and Casey Janssen have done a good job of closing things out since B.J. Ryan got hurt early on.
The Bad
One of their big free agent signings from two years ago, B.J. Ryan has always been a significant injury risk due to his mechanics, and this year proved to be a tough year as he had Tommy John surgery back on May 10th.
Making matters worse, their big signing this past offseason was to lock up Vernon Wells for 7 years and $126M, and he has failed to come through on his end of the deal by hitting a paltry .245/.304/.402. Given his career line of .281/.331/.478, he should bounce back next year, but we'll see just how much of a rebound he has in him. Joining Ryan on the sidelines, Lyle Overbay missed a month of the season and hasn't particularly played well when he's been in the lineup. A .242/.318/.394 hitting line is not what you expect from your first baseman.
Just to pile on, GM J.P. Ricciardi signed replacement-level John McDonald to a multi-year contract at $1.9M per year for 2008 and 2009. He is pretty good with the glove, but is it enough to make up for his hitting .246/.271.324? That's pretty doubtful, and at 32 (he turns 33 Monday), it's not likely to get any better. He's probably best suited for a utility/defensive substitution role, but are those guys supposed to be making nearly $2M a season?
Looking Forward
It's not hard to like the Blue Jay pitching staff (currently third in MLB in ERA), but their offense is not particularly good. If Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay return to their previous levels, they could be onto something. But that assumes that the rest of the team is at least as good as they were this year. With high injury risks like Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas, that isn't a guarantee. Plus, the injury risks don't end with the position players, Burnett, Ryan, and Halladay have all had their battles with the injury bug. Just like his former boss in Oakland, Ricciardi has a lot of risk built into his roster, and also like Billy Beane's team, next year's luck with injuries could determine the direction of this team.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
