In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model presented in Baseball Between the Numbers to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data, there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:

From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really contenders.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th in the voting?

On to the NL:

There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s) mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under $17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.

Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million behind Holliday.

In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs, does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.

Strengths

The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.

Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.

The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.

Concerns

Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.

Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.

Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.

If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.

The Minnesota Twins just weren't able to keep up with the Indians and Tigers this year. If they played in the NL Central instead of the AL, they'd only be 4.5 back. I'm not saying they're good, but they'd probably still be playing for a division championship in the NL.

The Good

Sure, Johan Santana is suffering through his worst season as a starter, but when a 3.09 ERA over 30 starts is your worst year ever, you're pretty darn good. The Twins' bullpen has once again held up its end of the bargain with Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier all having pretty good years. The herky-jerky side-armer (Neshek) has the highest ERA of the trio at 2.75.

On the offensive side, Torii Hunter has hit .291/.337/.525 in his walk year.

The Bad

The aforementioned Hunter is a free agent at the end of the season. The Twins will have a hard time replacing him if he doesn't come back. One other position they need to fill during the offseason is third base, unless they want to throw away another season at an offensive position. Nick Punto has seen the most time there this year and has a .199/.286/.255 line, which is pretty pathetic for a shortstop and even worse for a third baseman. On the other side of the diamond, Alexi Casilla just hasn't adjusted to the majors since taking over after the Luis Castillo trade. After hitting .269/.345/.344 at AAA Rochester, Casilla has only managed a .241/.274/.282 line in the big leagues.

Looking Forward

If they can't resign Hunter, it's probably not going to matter that Francisco Liriano will be making his return, which is just another reminder of how stacked the Twins are with young pitchers. In addition, if they can't resign Hunter and don't sign either Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones, it might be time to think about trading Johan (if they can't lock him up with an extension as I suspect). Santana will be a free agent following the 2008 season, and if they lose him to free agency, they'll only get a couple draft picks in return. These high-round draft picks have tremendous value for sure, but it pales in comparison to what Santana would fetch on the trade market.

If they do resign Hunter, I'd like to see the Twins make a run at Alex Rodriguez. Given their spending history, this has a slim chance of happening, so looking at it more realistically, Mike Lowell might be a good addition at the hot corner. If they don't resign Hunter, getting Lowell won't make a difference in their division, so it would then be best to wait a year and re-evaluate how good they'll be going into 2009.

Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projected the White Sox to have a 72-90 season, which made Paul Konerko jokingly say, "Well, we're screwed now. I guess we'll just have to battle through." Since the White Sox are now on pace to finish with 69 wins, it looks like this joke has become reality. On the south side of Chicago, their chances of making the playoffs haven't technically ended, but their statistical chances over a million simulations ended back on August 27, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.

The Good

Not a whole lot here. Despite experiencing a drop-off in his strikeout rate, Bobby Jenks has significantly cut down on his walks and home runs allowed, and he even tied a record streak of retiring 41 consecutive batters. It could even be argued that Jenks deserves the record outright, since the first batter he faced in the streak grounded into a double play. In the rotation, Mark Buehrle's HR problem from 2006 has disappeared, and Javier Vazquez has figured out how to throw more than 75 pitches successfully during a start (his ERA after 75 pitches last year was 7.97, and this year a much better 3.18). After a mediocre 2006 with the Philadelphia AA affiliate Reading (4.66 ERA), he was much better at White Sox AA affiliate Birmingham this year with a 3.18 ERA. (Edit: This last sentence was about Gio Gonzalez.)

The Bad

Jermaine Dye followed up a career year with a resounding thud as he fell back to earth, hitting .252/.317/.491 after a .315/.385/.622 2006. Joe Crede followed suit as he "hit" .216/.258/.317 before having season-ending back surgery in June. You know, for a team that performed horribly after having high expectations coming into the year, they didn't have too many guys perform extraordinarily worse than could have been expected.

Looking to the Future

Heading into 2008, the White Sox need to stop sacrificing valuable offense in left and center field. They have started to play Fields in left field lately, which could signify that they plan on playing him there full-time next year. If he can begin to figure out major league pitching, that will be an upgrade over what they've gotten from the position this year. That also suggests that they plan on offering Crede arbitration. If his back is healthy, he should return to at least 2005 levels (the 30 HR from 2006 might be too much to expect). That would leave center field as the main free agent target, which lines up with quite a bit of talent (Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones) that will be available this winter.

All told, it might not matter if they get one of the FA CF because quite a few of their stars are getting old. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Dye have already started to decline, and they shouldn't be expected to produce as they once did. Once they get past the next couple years, this team could be in very bad shape. They just don't have the young talent to sustain their recent run of success. Hey, at least they got a World Series ring out of it. A lot of teams aren't that fortunate.