The Colorado Rockies were the biggest surprise of the 2007 season. Everyone’s heard about their winning 21 of 22 and their 8-day layoff before the World Series, but are they here to stay?

Strengths

Leading up to opening day, the talk was that Todd Helton would be playing for the Red Sox in 2007, but those trade talks fell apart. Once the season began, Helton proved that 2006 was a fluke that can be chalked up to illness. His .320/.434/.494 line wasn’t back to his previous seasons, but it is in line with his 2005 decline to .320/.445/.534. At 34 years old, Helton is on the decline, and he isn’t getting any less expensive, but for the present, he’s still an asset at first base. On the other side of the diamond, Garrett Atkins started out slowly. After bottoming out with a .188/.259/.267 May, Atkins hit .349/.409/.532 post-All Star break (very similar to his 2006 rates) to reach his season line of .301/.367/.486. Next to Atkins, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had a tremendous debut with both the glove and the bat. Tulowitzki should win the gold glove award, although it wouldn’t surprise if he wasn’t famous enough to win the vote (how else can Jeter win three straight?). Tulowitzki got plenty of buzz during the postseason that he won’t be under the radar for the gold glove next season.

Matt Holliday was another player that saw a surge in popularity this postseason. A certain MVP candidate, Holliday hit .340/.405/.607 while playing okay defensively in a spacious home outfield. The only bad news for the Rockies is that Holliday only has two more seasons before free agency. Across the outfield, Brad Hawpe slightly improved his numbers from last year (.293/.383/.515 in 2006 to .291/.387/.539 in 2007), but he still can’t hit lefties as his .220/.295/.398 line against them attests. If you mix Hawpe with Ryan Spilborghs, you’ve got an outstanding right field platoon. Spilborghs has hit lefties for a .338/.395/.510 clips in his major league career. Once you add in Hawpe’s .315/.418/.585 clip against righties this year, the Rockies would be a dominant force in right field.

If the Rockies get a lead, their bullpen has two strong options going forward: Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes. Fuentes had been the closer since 2005, but he lost his job to Corpas around the All Star break. In a ten-day span, Fuentes gave up 10 earned runs in only 4.1 innings before being placed on the DL for just over a month. If you remove that horrid span, Fuentes managed a 1.74 ERA over 57 innings. However, Corpas has taken the job and run with it, posting a 2.08 ERA over 78 IP. This left-right combo in the bullpen will only get one year together unless Fuentes is signed to an extension as he becomes a free agent next offseason.

Getting that lead to the bullpen has always been a problem for past Colorado teams, but they have finally been able to get some productive arms in the starting rotation led by Jeff Francis. Other than Francis and Aaron Cook, the rest of the rotation will be filled out by their young guns, a couple of which who were seen this postseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. From watching Jimenez, it is evident that he has major league quality stuff, but he had trouble locating it in the strike zone. This year, he posted a 4.28 ERA over 82 major league innings, but that followed up a 5.85 ERA in 203 IP at AAA. Morales was much better as he used 112.2 AAA innings with an ERA of 3.51 to propel him into the major league rotation, where he posted a 3.43 ERA over 39.1 regular season innings. The remaining spot in the rotation will most likely be filled by Jason Hirsh, although Taylor Buchholz could be a fallback option. Despite the increased talent in the Colorado rotation, there’s still a tremendous amount of risk here.

Concerns

As I mentioned, Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger or less expensive. They tried trading him last offseason, and although I’d suggest them trying again, I doubt he’ll be as likely to waive his no-trade clause this time around. It’s a shame because then the Rockies could move Atkins to first base to make room for Ian Stewart. Instead, they have moved Stewart to second base this offseason to try to fill the void left by Kazuo Matsui’s impending free agency. If Stewart fails to make the transition, they’ll need to venture into the free agent market. They could go try to re-sign Matsui or go after one of Tadahito Iguchi and Luis Castillo. Yet another option is to let Jamey Carroll try to hit enough to make his defense an asset.

Another potential free agent departure is Yorvit Torrealba. With Chris Iannetta waiting in the wings, the Rockies should let Torrealba walk. Unfortunately, most World Series teams overvalue what got them there, and the Rockies could fall into that trap this year. Iannetta didn’t have a good season by any means, but over a full season, he can be expected to easily outproduce Torrealba at the plate. After all, Torrealba’s .255/.323/.376 line this year is a pretty low mark to pass. Just remember, Iannetta did hit .351/.447/.503 at AAA just one season ago.

With so many young arms expected to fill the rotation, the Rockies should try to find a quality starting pitcher in free agency. It could prove hard since some pitchers will probably still have reluctance to pitch at Coors Field, but relying on Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsh to hold down three spots in the rotation for the whole season is not a wise move.

The other concern that the Rockies must concern themselves with is signing Holliday to an extension. As a Scott Boras client, will Holliday break the trend and sign an extension instead of becoming a free agent? If I’m the Rockies, I have to try.

Overall

It took me a while to figure out what I think the Rockies should do. After all, they don’t have nearly as much young talent as the Dodgers, and you can’t forget about the Diamondbacks or the Padres. Then again, they don’t have Ned Colletti running the show. If they could move Helton, I’d do it, and the same goes for Holliday if they can’t get him signed to an extension. Since I don’t think Helton will agree to a trade now that they’ve been to the World Series, the Rockies should stay the course – replace Torrealba with Iannetta, hope that Ian Stewart can play second base, and acquire a good #2 pitcher to slot into the rotation.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.