On the surface, the Chicago White Sox appear to be a team
with no easily-upgraded positions. That would seem to be a good thing, but going into the trade deadline only up 2.5 games, it isn't. A team without easily-upgraded spots can't make moves to counter moves made by the teams chasing them. In essence, the competition can get better, but you can't. Although
Kenny Williams doesn't seem likely to make a move, I see one spot that needs fixing.
Alexei Ramirez appears to be doing all right. He’s hitting
.294/.318/.439 on the season. The .318 OBP is definitely not impressive, but it
also shows me something worse. With only six walks on the year, his plate discipline is terrible and might be a
sign that he needs some time in the minors. By swinging at 43% of pitches out
of the strike zone, he swings at more pitches out of the zone than everyone
except Vladimir Guerrero. While pitchers know that Vladimir will swing out of
the zone and compensate by throwing only 40% of their pitches in the strike zone,
they haven’t figured that out about Ramirez...yet. A full 54% of pitches Ramirez
sees are in the strike zone. Let me re-phrase. Although Ramirez swings at
more balls than all but 1 player, he sees more strikes than all but 17 players.
Eventually, the opposition will catch on and throw fewer strikes. If Ramirez
doesn’t show more discipline, his average is going to plummet quickly. When
that happens, the White Sox will find that they need a better 2B. They probably
don’t have what it takes to get Brian Roberts, but Mark Grudzielanek and Ray
Durham would be good targets.
On the flip side, Paul Konerko was simply not performing
before he went on the DL with a strained left oblique. Konerko has hit
.215/.322/.368 on the season mostly due to a measly .232 BABIP.
Based on his 20.3% line drive rate, his BABIP should be closer to .323. That
gives reason to believe that he should be better when he returns. If he isn’t,
then the White Sox will have something of an albatross on hand as Konerko’s due
$12M in both 2009 and 2010.
Holes to Fill: 2B
Trade Bait: prospects although most of their offseason top
prospects now play in the Oakland system
If you have any interest in the Giants, Tim Lincecum,
pitching mechanics, pitching injuries, or great baseball articles, be sure
to check out Tom Verducci's How Tiny Tim Became a Pitching Giant. It's a great article and
certainly qualifies as a must-read.
Barry Bonds & Friends just aren't capable of putting enough runs on the board to support their great rotation. At 13.5 games out of the wild card, the Giants elimination number is at 2, and it is time to officially write them off.
The Good
Barry Bonds continues to defy Father Time and put up fantastic numbers. Although it doesn't approach his 2001-2004 numbers, Bonds leads the majors by a wide margin in OBP at .482 (David Ortiz is second at .435) and is tenth in SLG at .568, which means he trails only Alex Rodriguez in OPS (1.050 to A-Rod's 1.084).
Since the rest of the lineup has been unable to pull their weight, that leaves the pitching staff, which has been tremendous. Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum, and Noah Lowry give the Giants one of the best top four in baseball, and Kevin Correia has been lights-out since joining the rotation at the end of August with a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings and 4 starts. If Correia keeps it up next year, this rotation could be the best in the majors.
The Bad
The infield (minus Ryan Klesko) has been absolutely terrible offensively. Rich Aurilia has hit .251/.301/.370, Ray Durham .216/.297/.349, Omar Vizquel .243/.303/.300, and Pedro Feliz .251/.292/.418. Yeah, the best OBP of those four is Omar Vizquel's .303, which is downright terrible. It gets worse. Durham and Aurilia are both under contract for next year, and the Giants have ignored Feliz's OBP the past few years so he could be back as well. Given the free agent market (David Eckstein might be the only option at short), the Giants might even want to bring back Vizquel.
Looking Forward
Given the state of the Giants' farm system, their best option might be to play for 2008. If they don't, there's quite a few losing seasons on the horizon. Of course, to play for 2008 would involve resigning Barry Bonds and signing Alex Rodriguez to an enormous contract. Without these two moves, I doubt that the Giants can contend in '08, and then they probably won't contend until 2010, at the earliest. An A-Rod signing would change a lot for this team.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders