Now that the trade deadline has passed, let's assign grades to each team for their in-season moves (April through today).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – A

Acquired 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek

Oakland Athletics – B

Signed DH Frank Thomas

Acquired RHP Sean Gallagher, C Josh Donaldson, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and OF Matt Murton for RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin

Acquired 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matt Spencer for Joe Blanton

Like Billy Beane, I believe that you’re either contending or you’re rebuilding. You can’t do both at the same time. I would have probably gone the other way and chose to contend, but if you’re going to go the rebuilding route, at least they didn’t hold anything back.

 

Toronto Blue Jays – D

Released DH Frank Thomas

They had no reason to cut Frank Thomas. He wasn’t doing well to start the year, but it’s not like they had a better alternative on their roster. It’s also disappointing they weren’t able to move any of their spare parts at the deadline. A.J. Burnett’s contract is a poison pill. If he stays healthy, he’s probably going to opt for free agency at the end of the season. If he gets hurt, you’re on the hook for the next two years at $12 million each. They also had Gregg Zaun and David Eckstein come up in rumors. I don’t know if these guys will be Type-B free agents or not, but my guess is not. If that is correct, there’s no reason these guys shouldn’t have been moved for something, anything.

 

Cleveland Indians – A-

Acquired OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL for LHP CC Sabathia

Acquired C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan for 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million

Acquired RHP Anthony Reyes for RHP Luis Perdomo

While there were many different takes on the Sabathia deal, I think it was a good move by the Indians. It could have been better if they had waited and let teams bid up the price, but LaPorta is most likely going to be better than the two draft picks they would have gotten from Sabathia’s free agent compensation. While I like the acquisition of LaPorta, I love the Casey Blake deal. Blake would have probably been gone in the offseason, and the Indians would have gotten a compensation sandwich pick. Both of the players they got are better than that sandwich pick.

 

Seattle Mariners – D+

Signed C Kenji Johjima to a 3-year, $16.5 million extension

Acquired RHP Gaby Hernandez for LHP Arthur Rhodes

At the time of the Johjima extension, the Mariners were still in the playoff race and Jeff Clement was still in the minors. With Clement being highly regarded by scouts and continuing to pound down the door to the majors, it was clear that Johjima was just holding the starting catcher spot for Clement. There was no reason to sign him to an extension. If you had known that Johjima was going to be terrible all season back in April, that’s just one more reason to not sign him to an extension. The Rhodes deal is just your typical left-handed reliever being moved at the deadline. I have no idea why Jose Vidro is still around; if his vesting option for 2009 vests, it is just terrible management. If Raul Ibanez is a potential type-A free agent, I can see why he didn’t get traded. The Mariners would have had to get something better than the two draft picks, but other teams wouldn’t want to give up that much to get Ibanez. Even considering that, Jayson Stark mentioned that the Mariners’ trade demands were “outrageous.” They should still be able to pass Jarrod Washburn through waivers and move him, but I have my doubts about the same being possible with Adrian Beltre.

 

Baltimore Orioles – C-

The Orioles made no big moves, but they didn’t really have to make any. Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are free agents after the year, but are they really of interest to any of the contenders? It could be argued that they should have traded George Sherrill at the top of his value, but the rumors suggest that other teams were making offers as if he is your typical left-handed middle reliever. That makes sense since he’s not really anything more than a typical left-handed middle reliever masquerading as a closer. Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Sherrill probably won’t be around on the next contender in Baltimore, but they’re all under contract for next year. That means they should be working the phones in the offseason to see if they can turn their mediocre veterans into something of future value. If they don’t start to do something, Nick Markakis might be a free agent before the Orioles become a playoff team.

 

Texas Rangers – C

The Rangers went into the trade deadline with a surplus of catching, and they came out without making any moves. That’s okay, since they’re all going to be around for a while. Gerald Laird is under team control through 2010, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez, and Taylor Teagarden all have through at least 2013. They’ve got time to make their moves. Hank Blalock and Michael Young also came up in trade rumors. Young is a bit of a surprise, but his contract does get ridiculous starting next year. From 2009 to 2013, Young will be paid $16 million a season. For comparison, PECOTA profiles him as worth $35 million over that time frame. That’s an excess of $45 million he’s owed. In addition to Blalock and Young, it would have been nice to see Milton Bradley get moved. Given what they had to move outside the catchers, it just wasn’t likely to see anything get done.

 

Tampa Bay Rays – C+

Exercised the 2009 option on LF Carl Crawford’s contract; the option was worth $8.25 million with a $2.5 million buyout

Declined the 2009 option on OF Rocco Baldelli’s contract; the option was worth $6 million with a $4 million buyout

Signed RHP Dan Wheeler to a 3-year $10.5 million extension through 2010 with a $4 million club option for 2011 ($1 million buyout)

Some people are upset that the Rays didn’t make a move to enhance their postseason chances in 2008, but I wonder something along the lines of what Derek Jacques suggested in the Baseball Prospectus Roundtable. Since they’re so loaded with prospects, were teams asking for more from the Rays than they were from other teams in hope that they would cave under pressure to contend now? Regarding the contracts done on April 1st, the Rays might have changed their mind about the Rocco Baldelli option decision. At the time, nobody knew if he’d be able to come back from mitochondrial disease and play again, so it was an easy decision to decline the option. With Rocco nearing his return to the majors, he might be worth that option. While he’s probably not going to be worth $6 million next year, you’re already on the hook for $4 million of it. Is he worth having on the roster for $2 million? That answer might be different than it was on April 1st.

 

Boston Red Sox – B-

Acquired LF Jason Bay for LF Manny Ramirez, RHP Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss, and $7 million

This is one trade where I disagree with a lot of people. The difference between the 2008 version of Manny Ramirez and the 2008 version of Jason Bay just isn’t that much. WARP has it at 0.5 wins. When you add in that Bay is under contract for 2009 at $7.5 million, going from Ramirez to Bay is an upgrade. Was that upgrade worth Hansen, Moss, and a lot of cold hard cash? Probably not, but I think the Red Sox just felt that Ramirez had to go. Don’t get me wrong; Hansen and Moss were never going to be worth much to the Red Sox, but they still had value. For 2008, the Red Sox got slightly worse. For 2009, this was a great move.

 

Kansas City Royals – C

Jose Guillen and his contract were unlikely to be wanted by other teams, but there were others that could have been traded. Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, and Miguel Olivo would have made sense to move. There probably wasn’t much interest in Grudzielanek, but Mahay and Olivo definitely generated some rumors. Mahay and Olivo are under team control for 2009, so the urgency to move them just wasn’t there.

 

Detroit Tigers – C

Acquired RHP Kyle Farnsworth for C Ivan Rodriguez

The Tigers were in a tough situation this trade deadline. Their chances at the postseason aren’t that great (currently 6 GB of the White Sox and Twins), but they spent the offseason mortgaging the future for 2008. They were all-in before the season even began. Having already moved their top prospects in the offseason, they had nothing left to trade for in-season help. They did the best they could by sending Pudge to the Yankees for Farnsworth. They aren’t losing much by using Brandon Inge behind the plate in Rodriguez’s stead while adding another flamethrower to their bullpen. Not a bad move, but not really an impact one either.

 

Minnesota Twins – D

Recalled LHP Francisco Liriano from AAA Rochester; Designated RHP Livan Hernandez for assignment

Livan Hernandez proved that he wasn’t worth keeping in the rotation over a month ago, but the Twins refused to make a move. That was okay at the time because Liriano was coming off consecutive outings where he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP and 5 runs in 5.1 IP. With Liriano not yet ready to return to the majors, it was acceptable to keep giving the ball to Hernandez. After Livan gave up 6 runs in 4.1 IP on July 9th, it should have been time to make this move. Prior to Livan’s next start on July 19th, Liriano had given up 1 run in his last 28 IP. Instead, Liriano got two more minor league starts. So what changed since July 19th, the trade deadline passed and the Twins found that nobody would trade for Hernandez. Wasn’t that known two weeks ago though?

On the no-trade front, it should have been pretty easy for the Twins to make upgrades. The exciting Carlos Gomez isn’t putting any runs on the scoreboard by hitting .257/.289/.353, but he is leading the team in at-bats. Plus, Brendan Harris has 336 at-bats while hitting .262/.321/.381. It’s hard for defense to make up for those numbers, but it’s not hard to improve your team when you have two guys hitting like that.

 

Chicago White Sox – I

Acquired OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million for RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

I give this one an incomplete because it’s going to depend on how Ozzie Guillen sets up his lineups. If they follow through on their promise to Griffey and play him every day in center field, it’s possible that this trade actually makes them worse. If they quickly realize what everyone else has – that Griffey can’t play center anymore – Griffey could be a nice platoon partner for Paul Konerko at first base. For this trade to improve the White Sox, it’s going to take convincing Griffey that he should play first. Given how long it took the Reds to move Griffey to right, that will probably take too long.

 

New York Yankees – B-

Signed 1B Richie Sexson

Acquired OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte for RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and OF Jose Tabata

Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez for RHP Kyle Farnsworth

I’m sure there are a lot of people upset with the Yankees’ unwillingness to trade away their farm system for a better shot at the 2008 playoffs, but Brian Cashman has a plan. He was able to pull off some minor moves without giving up much, but the big question is do they have enough to make the playoffs? I don’t think so, but it’s going to be close.

If you asked someone to name the surprise team of 2008, you’d most likely be told the Tampa Bay Rays. PECOTA would disagree. What can the Rays do to enhance their chances in 2008 without hurting their chances down the road?

Holes to Fill

I would argue that their number one hole is at shortstop, where Jason Bartlett has not lived up to expectations since coming over from Minnesota. After hitting a modest .265/.339/.361 in 2007, Bartlett has hit an even worse .248/.294/.279 in 2008. While he has helped the Rays vastly improve their defense, it’s mostly because of how bad Brendan Harris was last year. Harris had an RZR of .760, 86 Rate, and -12 FRAA in 2007. Bartlett is only at an RZR of .822, 96 Rate, and -3 FRAA this year. So while he’s improved their SS defense over last year, it’s only because he’s been average to Harris’s not-quite-average defense. With both Reid Brignac and Tim Beckham in their farm system, they don’t need a long-term fix at short, but a short-term fix could help them. Unfortunately, that guy isn’t available by trade.

Other places they could try to upgrade include the rotation, the bullpen, and a right-handed outfielder. On the pitching side of things, it’s mostly to counteract risks in their current staff, whether that’s due to inexperience or health. As for the right-handed outfielder, that’s because Eric Hinske has only managed lines of .176/.317/.294 in 2008 and .228/.297/.372 in his career against left-handed pitchers. While Jonny Gomes can hit lefties (.230/.324/.508 in 2008 and .282/.384/.532 career), he’s already doing that for Cliff Floyd at DH. Who are possible targets for these positions? Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times mentions C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. In my opinion, those three outfielders are overkill for what they need, but they could always flip Hinske for something else if they acquired one of them.

Trade Bait

With 5 of the top 40 prospects still in the minor leagues, the Rays could do whatever they want in the trade market. Those five prospects are David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, and Jacob McGee. Even if they don’t make a big move, their system is more than just those 5 guys. The Rays have a ton of good prospects that they could use to make minor upgrades throughout the roster to bolster their chances in 2008.

Holes: SS, RH RF, SP, RP

Trade Bait: too many names to list

This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

Tonight, I was watching the Rays and Yankees on ESPN2, and the subject of Rocco Baldelli came up. Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser were talking about something they don’t really know about – mitochondrial disease. Now, I don’t know much about the disease, but I don’t believe what they were saying. Phillips and Hershiser were talking about the amount of time that Baldelli has missed and how mitochondrial disease possibly played a role. Hershiser claimed that the disease made him so fatigued at times that Baldelli felt he was injured, implying that he wasn’t actually injured. Let’s see here – torn ACL, torn UCL (Tommy John surgery), recurrent hamstring problems. Those sound like real injuries to me. From what I understand, Baldelli becomes more fatigued due to the disease. When athletes get fatigued, their mechanics start to fail, whether they be throwing, hitting, or running. When you start to go away from your normal mechanics, your body is taxed differently than it normally is, and that results in injuries. If they wanted to tie his disease in with his injuries, that’s the route to take, not the seemingly “fake” injuries route.

They also gave their opinions on the Joba Chamberlain plan. They proclaimed that they don’t think the Yankees have the bullpen depth to move Chamberlain out of the 8th-inning role. They also covered the risks in their rotation, but I feel they left out one major component. Tom Verducci and Will Carroll have both mentioned a rule involved with young pitchers – an increase of over 30 innings from one year to the next results in heightened risk (injury and/or loss of effectiveness) the following year. That means that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can’t be in the rotation all season, and that’s probably a major reason why the Yankees are planning on moving Joba to the rotation.

Getting off my soapbox, I’d like to talk about the Chris Young extension. It’s rumored that the deal is about the same as the deal Troy Tulowitzki ($31M over 6 years) got in January. Just over a month ago, I mentioned Young as a guy that would be worth signing to an extension after a good 2008 season, but it seems that Arizona is more confident in Young’s ability. This type of extension is one that is great for both sides. Young gets the guaranteed millions every young player dreams of, and Arizona gets cost certainty through 2013. Congratulations to both Chris Young and Diamondbacks’ fans.