The Colorado Rockies were the biggest surprise of the 2007 season. Everyone’s heard about their winning 21 of 22 and their 8-day layoff before the World Series, but are they here to stay?

Strengths

Leading up to opening day, the talk was that Todd Helton would be playing for the Red Sox in 2007, but those trade talks fell apart. Once the season began, Helton proved that 2006 was a fluke that can be chalked up to illness. His .320/.434/.494 line wasn’t back to his previous seasons, but it is in line with his 2005 decline to .320/.445/.534. At 34 years old, Helton is on the decline, and he isn’t getting any less expensive, but for the present, he’s still an asset at first base. On the other side of the diamond, Garrett Atkins started out slowly. After bottoming out with a .188/.259/.267 May, Atkins hit .349/.409/.532 post-All Star break (very similar to his 2006 rates) to reach his season line of .301/.367/.486. Next to Atkins, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had a tremendous debut with both the glove and the bat. Tulowitzki should win the gold glove award, although it wouldn’t surprise if he wasn’t famous enough to win the vote (how else can Jeter win three straight?). Tulowitzki got plenty of buzz during the postseason that he won’t be under the radar for the gold glove next season.

Matt Holliday was another player that saw a surge in popularity this postseason. A certain MVP candidate, Holliday hit .340/.405/.607 while playing okay defensively in a spacious home outfield. The only bad news for the Rockies is that Holliday only has two more seasons before free agency. Across the outfield, Brad Hawpe slightly improved his numbers from last year (.293/.383/.515 in 2006 to .291/.387/.539 in 2007), but he still can’t hit lefties as his .220/.295/.398 line against them attests. If you mix Hawpe with Ryan Spilborghs, you’ve got an outstanding right field platoon. Spilborghs has hit lefties for a .338/.395/.510 clips in his major league career. Once you add in Hawpe’s .315/.418/.585 clip against righties this year, the Rockies would be a dominant force in right field.

If the Rockies get a lead, their bullpen has two strong options going forward: Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes. Fuentes had been the closer since 2005, but he lost his job to Corpas around the All Star break. In a ten-day span, Fuentes gave up 10 earned runs in only 4.1 innings before being placed on the DL for just over a month. If you remove that horrid span, Fuentes managed a 1.74 ERA over 57 innings. However, Corpas has taken the job and run with it, posting a 2.08 ERA over 78 IP. This left-right combo in the bullpen will only get one year together unless Fuentes is signed to an extension as he becomes a free agent next offseason.

Getting that lead to the bullpen has always been a problem for past Colorado teams, but they have finally been able to get some productive arms in the starting rotation led by Jeff Francis. Other than Francis and Aaron Cook, the rest of the rotation will be filled out by their young guns, a couple of which who were seen this postseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. From watching Jimenez, it is evident that he has major league quality stuff, but he had trouble locating it in the strike zone. This year, he posted a 4.28 ERA over 82 major league innings, but that followed up a 5.85 ERA in 203 IP at AAA. Morales was much better as he used 112.2 AAA innings with an ERA of 3.51 to propel him into the major league rotation, where he posted a 3.43 ERA over 39.1 regular season innings. The remaining spot in the rotation will most likely be filled by Jason Hirsh, although Taylor Buchholz could be a fallback option. Despite the increased talent in the Colorado rotation, there’s still a tremendous amount of risk here.

Concerns

As I mentioned, Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger or less expensive. They tried trading him last offseason, and although I’d suggest them trying again, I doubt he’ll be as likely to waive his no-trade clause this time around. It’s a shame because then the Rockies could move Atkins to first base to make room for Ian Stewart. Instead, they have moved Stewart to second base this offseason to try to fill the void left by Kazuo Matsui’s impending free agency. If Stewart fails to make the transition, they’ll need to venture into the free agent market. They could go try to re-sign Matsui or go after one of Tadahito Iguchi and Luis Castillo. Yet another option is to let Jamey Carroll try to hit enough to make his defense an asset.

Another potential free agent departure is Yorvit Torrealba. With Chris Iannetta waiting in the wings, the Rockies should let Torrealba walk. Unfortunately, most World Series teams overvalue what got them there, and the Rockies could fall into that trap this year. Iannetta didn’t have a good season by any means, but over a full season, he can be expected to easily outproduce Torrealba at the plate. After all, Torrealba’s .255/.323/.376 line this year is a pretty low mark to pass. Just remember, Iannetta did hit .351/.447/.503 at AAA just one season ago.

With so many young arms expected to fill the rotation, the Rockies should try to find a quality starting pitcher in free agency. It could prove hard since some pitchers will probably still have reluctance to pitch at Coors Field, but relying on Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsh to hold down three spots in the rotation for the whole season is not a wise move.

The other concern that the Rockies must concern themselves with is signing Holliday to an extension. As a Scott Boras client, will Holliday break the trend and sign an extension instead of becoming a free agent? If I’m the Rockies, I have to try.

Overall

It took me a while to figure out what I think the Rockies should do. After all, they don’t have nearly as much young talent as the Dodgers, and you can’t forget about the Diamondbacks or the Padres. Then again, they don’t have Ned Colletti running the show. If they could move Helton, I’d do it, and the same goes for Holliday if they can’t get him signed to an extension. Since I don’t think Helton will agree to a trade now that they’ve been to the World Series, the Rockies should stay the course – replace Torrealba with Iannetta, hope that Ian Stewart can play second base, and acquire a good #2 pitcher to slot into the rotation.

I'm sure Mets' fans don't want to even think about baseball right now, but with their elimination from the playoffs today, I'm going to take a look at 2008 and beyond for the organization. As Nate Silver wrote earlier this week, the 2007 New York Mets have completed the 2nd worst collapse in baseball history. Back on September 13, the Mets had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and yet today, they were eliminated from contention.

Strengths

You can't talk about a New York team without talking about the great players on the left side of their infield. Whether it is Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter or David Wright and Jose Reyes, New Yorkers are spoiled with greatness on the left side. In their first years of their extensions signed last August, Wright and Reyes have hit .325/.417/.548 and .283/.356/.425 while combining for 112 stolen bases in 138 attempts.This is an extreme example of what internal development can provide you on the cheap. Did you know that Wright was selected with a compensatory pick from the Colorado Rockies-Mike Hampton signing?

Out in the outfield, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and Lastings Milledge returning for sure, and they could be joined by Moises Alou, depending on the Mets picking up his option and Alou not retiring. Milledge doesn't have an impressive line for a right fielder, but a 22 year old hitting .272/.341/.446 in his rookie season is pretty good. Granted, it was only 184 at bats, but it is a good showing nonetheless. With Shawn Green on his way out (unless the Mets want to pay him an extra $8M [$10M option - $2M buyout]), Milledge should be given the everyday right field job. Beltran always seems to have nagging injuries, but he has consistently taken the field during his career with 140+ games since 2000. After a career year in 2006, Beltran still hit .275/.352/.525 this season while playing a good center field. Over in right field, Moises Alou might be suiting up for his final season (if it hasn't already occurred). He has not managed to play more than 100 games either of the last two years, but he has been successful when he has played. His batting average was slightly inflated this year, but a return to his career line of .303/.369/.517 doesn't seem out of line (he's been above each of those marks at least twice out of the last three years) if he stays healthy. Since you can't expect Alou to stay on the field all year, a good fourth outfielder is necessary, and Endy Chavez can fill that role. He will never have another year like 2006, but he can be a useful fill-in for Alou when Moises needs rest or time on the DL.

The pitching rotation has shown that it provides quality innings when healthy, but it has rarely been completely healthy. When you have a 35 year old Pedro Martinez and 41 year old Orlando Hernandez, you can count on one of them needing time off at some point during the season. Adding to the team's age on the mound, 41 year old Tom Glavine has a player option for 2008. He is due $3M; if he chooses to come back for another season, he'll make another $10M. Despite Glavine's atrocious final outing this year, the Mets (and eventually Mets' fans will come back around) would like to have him back for another year. For the last two spots in the rotation, John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown that they can be productive major league starters. Maine had a 3.91 ERA over 191 innings, and Perez had a 3.56 ERA over 177 innings. Perez had a great season back in 2004 (2.98 ERA, 196 IP) before completing falling apart the last two seasons (5.85 and 6.55 ERAs). If he and pitching coach Rick Peterson can keep his mechanics together, he should continue to be a quality #3-type pitcher.

Coming out of the bullpen, the Mets had two good left-handed relievers: Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano. Wagner struggled down the stretch, but at the end of the year, he still had a 2.63 ERA over 68.1 innings. Pitching in front of Wagner in games, Feliciano managed a 3.11 ERA over 63.2 innings. This is a good start to a bullpen, but the Mets need to find the right-handed help for a full set.

Concerns

At catcher, both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro will be free agents. If the Mets are unable to bring either (or both) of them back, there are some options available. This offseason's free agent catcher class includes Michael Barrett, Castro, Jason Kendall, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, today's interim Yankee manager Jorge Posada, and Yorvit Torrealba. Obviously, Posada is the #1 option, but it would be hard for him to leave the Yankees and even harder to join the cross-town Mets. Their best option is probably one of their own, but not the one they've been starting. Ramon Castro is an okay catcher defensively, but he is coming off his best season with the bat. He hit .293/.340/.571 in 140 AB this season. Over the last three years, he has hit .257/.326/.463, which is pretty good for a catcher. However, if he hasn't been playing over Lo Duca and his .273/.312/.378 line, the Mets must have had a reason, which leads me to believe that he's also not a target for the starting spot. If you're not going to have a catcher under contract going into the offseason, this might be the best time to do so. Even if there is a lack of great options, at least there are options. If the Tigers buy out Ivan Rodriguez's contract, he would just add to the class.

Carlos Delgado declined greatly this season; he only hit .258/.332/.448. This could just be a sign that his decline phase has really kicked in at 35, or it could be a sign that he wasn't fully healthy coming off his surgeries in the offseason. Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome October 23 and surgery on his left elbow October 30 to correct for tennis elbow. If he hadn't fully recovered, then a healthy offseason would be good for him going into 2008. Unfortunately, that won't happen as he was hit by a pitch today that fractured a bone in his left hand. Hopefully, Delgado can rebound in 2008.

Midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is a free agent this offseason, and the Mets will need to replace him at second base. The starter before Castillo, Jose Valentin, is recovering from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and the Mets have a $4.3M option for 2008. At 37 and coming off this surgery, I can't see the Mets going into 2008 with him penciled in at second. Their options include Castillo, Valentin, Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kazuo Matsui. I'm sure that the Mets don't want to revisit the whole Kaz Matsui experience, but will they pursue another Japanese infielder in Iguchi?

To complement the left-handed relievers mentioned above, the Mets need to improve the right-handed side. Jorge Sosa was moved to the bullpen after time spent in the rotation this year, but he might need to fill in for the injury-prone starters from time to time. Rookie Joe Smith had a great start to the year by throwing 14 scoreless innings in April, but he has struggled at times this year. He could re-establish himself as a viable option. Another option is the rehabbing Duaner Sanchez. Sanchez missed all of 2007 after shoulder surgery. He had a 2.60 ERA in 2006 before missing the last two months and the playoffs with an earlier shoulder injury. If he can return to that form, the Mets' problem is fixed, but that's a big if.

Overall

The Mets have quite a few concerns to deal with this offseason for an 88 win team, but they shouldn't be hard for Omar Minaya to fix. The Mets should be contenders for the NL East crown again in 2008, and with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they should be contenders for quite a while.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

Only places where the rankings were changed will be mentioned.

Catchers
Fourth Tier
4. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
*5. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
6. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
*7. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

The 4th and 5th tiers have been combined because there just isn't much of a difference between the four players.

First Basemen
Seventh Tier
*11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
*15. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Thomas is down from the sixth tier, and Gonzalez is up from the eighth tier. Remember that Thomas is not eligible at 1B. It was just the most logical position to list him with.

Eighth Tier
...
*20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
*21. Ryan Shealy, Kansas City Royals

I added Youkilis and Shealy to the end of the list because they're close enough to the rest of the 8th tier.

Second Basemen
Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
*4. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
*6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
*7. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
*8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Moved up nearly the entire 3rd tier (minus Kelly Johnson and Ryan Freel) to join Mr. Kendrick in the 2nd. Also, I found the reason I had Brian Roberts down so far. I had a very low AVG projection for him, which was completely out of line with his recent history. Now he's up closer to the top where you'd expect him.

Third Tier
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
11. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After everyone left, Iguchi joins the outfielders masquerading as 2B. (Actually, Johnson will play second base this year unlike Freel. He just doesn't qualify here until about April 15.) 

Fourth Tier
12. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
13. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
*... 

These two standout from the other guys that were in the fourth tier, so the rest are booted down.

Third Basemen
Third Tier
*9. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Gordon drops out of the second tier to join Chipper in the third. Don't expect to draft Gordon if you're in a competitive league. I saw him go in the 7th round yesterday.

Fourth Tier
*11. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

Rolen also experiences a drop down to the cleared out fourth tier, which means that the remainder of the fourth tier now constitutes the fifth tier.

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.