Is there anything more revealing about the current state of
the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record
was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of
course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike
what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would
be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That
offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the
major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding
bullpen to finish 90-72.
Strengths
That young,
up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually,
when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks
to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by
the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the
diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle,
Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor
Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with
Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys,
Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at
the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder
and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds
as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they
still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with
young, inexpensive talent.
In addition to the young players that graduated to the major
leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008.
Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet
eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in
Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five
outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be
shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez
lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After
Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will
surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are
ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity
and contract status could bring back something valuable.
That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal,
and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he
hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That
contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M
($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on
his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season),
Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four
if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager
Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for
Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can
see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and
.270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against
lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and
Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets
on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a
trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.
All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes,
Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are
playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for
their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for
groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be
base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.
Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by
former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound
with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical
groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in
236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and
Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under
contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years
with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured
Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each
had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug
Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would
expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61
appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers
aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and
Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents
for another five seasons.
Concerns
Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise
to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the
offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had
to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable
hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free
agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent
starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy
Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and
the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb,
Johnson, Davis, and Owings.
If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they
have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting
pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana
Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted
the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that
Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out
38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his
actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major
league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five
innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major
league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of
2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league
ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his
major league problems in 2008.
Overall
Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is
easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for
the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division
should be fun to watch for a while.
When managers use relief pitchers, they tend to go with matchups. A lefty up at the plate signals that a LHP should be brought into the game and the same for righties. If this is the best usage of a team's relief pitchers, then why isn't this situational usage continued into the ninth inning? For example, the Reds had Mike Stanton and David Weathers warming up in the eighth, but Aaron Harang was able to finish the inning. Since Harang had thrown 113 pitches, Pete Mackanin brought in Weathers to start the ninth. With Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Jeff Salazar due up, why didn't Stanton get brought in for the save since Drew and Salazar are left-handed?
While I'm not convinced that situational usage is the best use of a team's bullpen (and their roster spots due to more relievers being needed for this use pattern), I wonder why a manager thinks it is smart to adhere to situational matchups in the middle innings but not the ninth. It doesn't seem like any logical thought has actually been applied to this by a manager.
P.S. I'm watching the Reds-Diamondbacks on DVR, so I actually wrote this before seeing Weathers blow the save.
Later on in the bottom of the tenth, the Reds had runners on first and second with no outs and Brandon Phillips up in a tie game. On the first two pitches, he was bunting. Why in the world would a cleanup hitter be bunting in that situation? A base hit wins the game, and you've got three chances to get that hit. Why would you give up one of those at-bats to get runners on first and second with one out? Sure, it gives you the chance to hit a sacrifice fly to win the game, but which of the following situations would you choose:
1. Three chances at a base hit to win the game.
2. One chance at a base hit or sac fly and an additional chance at a base hit.
First Tier 1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets 2. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Second Tier 3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins 4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies 5. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles
Third Tier 6. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers 7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers 8. Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays 9. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers
Hall and Glaus obviously only qualify as shortstops, but they do provide mega-power at the position. They are held back by lack of RBI opportunities (Hall will probably bat second) and AVG, respectively.
Fourth Tier 10. Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals 11. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers 12. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez could be eligible at second in mid-April, but I'm in denial and listing him at SS. I just can't believe that the Nationals will actually choose to start Cristian Guzman over Ron Belliard. If Lopez qualifies at second, I would place him at the bottom of the second tier of second basemen.
Fifth Tier 13. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves 14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies 15. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
If J-Honey returns to 2005 form, he will zoom up the charts. If he performs like last year, he's not worth having in fantasy leagues. Somewhere in between sounds right to me.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
