This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

Last season, the Brewers jumped into the NL Central picture only to fall behind the Cubs late in the year. This season, the Brewers and Cubs are back for another round, and the Reds and Astros have visions of joining them at the top of the standings.

Chicago Cubs – This offseason, the Cubs have acquired Kosuke Fukudome to fill the void left by the trade of Jacques Jones. Otherwise, they are returning most of the division champion team from last year. There isn’t really much left to be done before the spring training. Other than a few relief pitchers, Derrek Lee is their next major free agent departure, but that doesn’t happen for three more seasons. They have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts, but I just don’t see why. Roberts and Mark DeRosa are both signed through 2009, and their last two seasons have been nearly identical rate-wise (minus the stolen base category). Unless DeRosa returns to his pre-2006 form, Roberts isn’t much of an upgrade. Plus, Eric Patterson doesn’t have much left to prove at AAA, and none of the three can play short if Ronny Cedeno fails to turn his ability into major league production once again (no, Ryan Theriot and his .672 OPS are not the solution). With their current roster, the Cubs should be near the top of the division once again.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds’ top-heavy farm system is about to become more balanced because Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce are set to lose their eligibility for prospect lists. Bailey is slated to join the rotation out of spring training, and the trade of Josh Hamilton was to open up center for Bruce. Votto still has Scott Hatteberg standing in his way, but Hatteberg shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for Votto to overcome. That leaves Johnny Cueto as the only remaining top prospect in the system, and he has a shot to start the year in either the rotation or the bullpen as well. Despite the emergence of their minor league talent (usually perceived as a team throwing in the towel), the Reds will be playing for 2008. Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., and David Weathers are all set to become free agents after the season (Griffey has a club option for $16.5M with a $4M buyout, which isn’t out of the question if healthy). Right now, the Reds should try to re-sign Dunn to an extension, which probably won’t be well received by Reds’ fans (I fail to understand why they see Dunn as the problem rather than the solution). Once Votto proves he can handle first base in the major leagues, the Reds should deal Hatteberg for a bullpen arm or a prospect. If they fall out of the race, the Reds should look to trade Dunn (if not re-signed), Griffey, and Weathers.

Houston Astros – The Astros are similar to the Blue Jays in my mind – in a spot between playing for now and playing for the future. Like the Blue Jays, the Astros don’t have much coming up in the farm system, and they have several players signed to lucrative contracts. The Astros are stuck with playing for now, but their rotation needs a ton of work. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez hold the top two spots, but the rest of the rotation will be filled out by three of Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Chris Sampson, Felipe Paulino, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jack Cassel. That’s not exactly a division-winning rotation. The Astros need to bring in some help, but they don’t have much excess talent to trade from at other positions and there aren’t many free agent options remaining – Roger Clemens, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Wade Miller, and Jeff Weaver might be the best ones left. They’ll be in even more dire straits if Tejada’s situation forces his deportation. If you’re looking for good news, their first major free agent departure would be after the ’09 season (Tejada and Valverde).

Milwaukee Brewers – The recent signing of Mike Cameron will improve the Brewers’ defense five months out of the year. After he serves his amphetamine suspension of 25 games, the Brewers will have an upgrade of defense in center and at third without much loss in left. Ryan Braun was horrible at third base, but he should be athletic enough to handle left field. For the month of April, the Brewers will be able to use Gabe Gross and Tony Gwynn, Jr. to man center field, which should be enough to get by. Their only troublesome spot is behind the plate, where they didn’t see that Jason Kendall’s career should be entering the backup stage. His offensive limitations will be hidden by the offensive capabilities of the rest of the lineup, but moves like this are unexplainable. Looking to the future, most of the team is under team control through 2009. Ben Sheets headlines the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year. It’s been four years since he started over 30 games, but if he’s able to go through the year without major injury, the Brewers should try to re-sign him following the season. The other players that will be free agents following the season are Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, and Guillermo Mota. None warrant an extension before they reach free agency.

Pittsburgh Pirates – John Perrotto wrote yesterday that while it appears that new GM Neal Huntington has been asleep at the wheel, he has done his work behind the scenes. Looking at their roster, it is true what Huntington says about the team underperforming last year, but there is also not enough talent there to say they have a shot before 2010. Unfortunately, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson (pending a team option), Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady will be free agents by then. For that reason, they should try to trade (or re-sign) all of them. Obviously, many of them are coming off poor seasons and need some time to re-build their trade value. Matt Morris and Damaso Marte can be added to the trade list as well, assuming someone is desperate enough to take Morris off their hands. I think Huntington is on the right track in a big picture sense, but LaRoche is the youngest of the players I mentioned at 28. All of them are in or past their peak and should be traded before they get too far in their decline phase. If the Pirates want to get value from their young starting pitchers – Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Zach Duke, they need to find some good position player prospects quickly (preferably before 2012 when team control of the three not named Gorzelanny will have expired).

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals had a veteran team back in 2006 when they won the World Series, and their current roster shows it. They lack starter-caliber middle infielders, and their starting rotation is risky to put it nicely. On the good side, they have a superstar that only one or two teams can match in Albert Pujols. In order to put him to good use before his contract expires, the farm system needs to be re-built quickly. Pujols is signed through 2011 if you assume his 2011 club option of $16M will be picked up. For this reason, I consider the trade for Glaus an upgrade (less risk for a non-contending team) but short of its potential. I would have rather seen them get a few prospects for Rolen, but instead, they’re probably stuck with Glaus for the next two years, which isn’t entirely bad if he stays healthy. Given Glaus’s no-trade clause, I’ll only suggest Jason Isringhausen and Mark Mulder as the players the Cardinals should look into trading, assuming that Mulder can prove his health after offseason rotator cuff surgery. Neither should be expected to be a part of the next Cardinals postseason roster.

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I'll be back later in the week with the NL West, and then I'll post my current projected 2008 standings. I've got a couple other ideas for me to write about after that.

Obviously by now, you've noticed that I didn't get the AL West piece up yesterday. Hopefully, I'll get that finished either Monday or Tuesday. Today, I want to go back to the player valuation model I talked about in November.

Back in November, I wrote a couple posts where I used a model based on Nate Silver's work in Baseball Between the Numbers. The first was an attempt to estimate Alex Rodriguez's value to each team, and the second was an evaluation of the MVP award. Soon after, I was pointed in the direction of Vince Gennaro's article doing basically the same thing, only better. At that point, I added his book Diamond Dollars to my list of books to read. I finally bought it and have started reading it. I must say that if you have any interest in his player valuation, sabermetrics, sports business, economics, etc., you should read his book.

One of the things I've learned from the book plays directly into what I wrote about the Blue Jays and completely pushes me in the one direction. When a team wins fewer games than they expected, the amount of revenue each player brings in for the club is lower than expected, which means that the team is probably paying recent free agent acquisitions more than each of them is generating in revenue. That is a pretty obvious statement, but one I had overlooked. Due to the Blue Jays' commitments to several of their players, they need to play for 2008 to keep those players' value to the club up. If they don't play for now, those contracts will all end up on the negative side of the marginal revenue/marginal cost ledger, which means they need to trade for an impact player. No, trading Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen does not count. I consider that a backwards move. I'd rather have Glaus for 2008 (player option for 2009) than Rolen for 2008, 2009, and 2010.

That lesson can be summed up by saying:

"If you're on the fence of whether or not a team should play for this year or the future, look at the team's current contracts. If they've got a lot of money already invested, play for now."

That's not to say that a team destined to be below .500 with a lot of money invested should play for now. At that point, they're sunk costs, and no amount of additional spending will change that. It's only when you're on the fence.