Now that the trade deadline has passed, let's assign grades to each team for their in-season moves (April through today).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – A

Acquired 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek

Oakland Athletics – B

Signed DH Frank Thomas

Acquired RHP Sean Gallagher, C Josh Donaldson, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and OF Matt Murton for RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin

Acquired 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matt Spencer for Joe Blanton

Like Billy Beane, I believe that you’re either contending or you’re rebuilding. You can’t do both at the same time. I would have probably gone the other way and chose to contend, but if you’re going to go the rebuilding route, at least they didn’t hold anything back.

 

Toronto Blue Jays – D

Released DH Frank Thomas

They had no reason to cut Frank Thomas. He wasn’t doing well to start the year, but it’s not like they had a better alternative on their roster. It’s also disappointing they weren’t able to move any of their spare parts at the deadline. A.J. Burnett’s contract is a poison pill. If he stays healthy, he’s probably going to opt for free agency at the end of the season. If he gets hurt, you’re on the hook for the next two years at $12 million each. They also had Gregg Zaun and David Eckstein come up in rumors. I don’t know if these guys will be Type-B free agents or not, but my guess is not. If that is correct, there’s no reason these guys shouldn’t have been moved for something, anything.

 

Cleveland Indians – A-

Acquired OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL for LHP CC Sabathia

Acquired C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan for 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million

Acquired RHP Anthony Reyes for RHP Luis Perdomo

While there were many different takes on the Sabathia deal, I think it was a good move by the Indians. It could have been better if they had waited and let teams bid up the price, but LaPorta is most likely going to be better than the two draft picks they would have gotten from Sabathia’s free agent compensation. While I like the acquisition of LaPorta, I love the Casey Blake deal. Blake would have probably been gone in the offseason, and the Indians would have gotten a compensation sandwich pick. Both of the players they got are better than that sandwich pick.

 

Seattle Mariners – D+

Signed C Kenji Johjima to a 3-year, $16.5 million extension

Acquired RHP Gaby Hernandez for LHP Arthur Rhodes

At the time of the Johjima extension, the Mariners were still in the playoff race and Jeff Clement was still in the minors. With Clement being highly regarded by scouts and continuing to pound down the door to the majors, it was clear that Johjima was just holding the starting catcher spot for Clement. There was no reason to sign him to an extension. If you had known that Johjima was going to be terrible all season back in April, that’s just one more reason to not sign him to an extension. The Rhodes deal is just your typical left-handed reliever being moved at the deadline. I have no idea why Jose Vidro is still around; if his vesting option for 2009 vests, it is just terrible management. If Raul Ibanez is a potential type-A free agent, I can see why he didn’t get traded. The Mariners would have had to get something better than the two draft picks, but other teams wouldn’t want to give up that much to get Ibanez. Even considering that, Jayson Stark mentioned that the Mariners’ trade demands were “outrageous.” They should still be able to pass Jarrod Washburn through waivers and move him, but I have my doubts about the same being possible with Adrian Beltre.

 

Baltimore Orioles – C-

The Orioles made no big moves, but they didn’t really have to make any. Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are free agents after the year, but are they really of interest to any of the contenders? It could be argued that they should have traded George Sherrill at the top of his value, but the rumors suggest that other teams were making offers as if he is your typical left-handed middle reliever. That makes sense since he’s not really anything more than a typical left-handed middle reliever masquerading as a closer. Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Sherrill probably won’t be around on the next contender in Baltimore, but they’re all under contract for next year. That means they should be working the phones in the offseason to see if they can turn their mediocre veterans into something of future value. If they don’t start to do something, Nick Markakis might be a free agent before the Orioles become a playoff team.

 

Texas Rangers – C

The Rangers went into the trade deadline with a surplus of catching, and they came out without making any moves. That’s okay, since they’re all going to be around for a while. Gerald Laird is under team control through 2010, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez, and Taylor Teagarden all have through at least 2013. They’ve got time to make their moves. Hank Blalock and Michael Young also came up in trade rumors. Young is a bit of a surprise, but his contract does get ridiculous starting next year. From 2009 to 2013, Young will be paid $16 million a season. For comparison, PECOTA profiles him as worth $35 million over that time frame. That’s an excess of $45 million he’s owed. In addition to Blalock and Young, it would have been nice to see Milton Bradley get moved. Given what they had to move outside the catchers, it just wasn’t likely to see anything get done.

 

Tampa Bay Rays – C+

Exercised the 2009 option on LF Carl Crawford’s contract; the option was worth $8.25 million with a $2.5 million buyout

Declined the 2009 option on OF Rocco Baldelli’s contract; the option was worth $6 million with a $4 million buyout

Signed RHP Dan Wheeler to a 3-year $10.5 million extension through 2010 with a $4 million club option for 2011 ($1 million buyout)

Some people are upset that the Rays didn’t make a move to enhance their postseason chances in 2008, but I wonder something along the lines of what Derek Jacques suggested in the Baseball Prospectus Roundtable. Since they’re so loaded with prospects, were teams asking for more from the Rays than they were from other teams in hope that they would cave under pressure to contend now? Regarding the contracts done on April 1st, the Rays might have changed their mind about the Rocco Baldelli option decision. At the time, nobody knew if he’d be able to come back from mitochondrial disease and play again, so it was an easy decision to decline the option. With Rocco nearing his return to the majors, he might be worth that option. While he’s probably not going to be worth $6 million next year, you’re already on the hook for $4 million of it. Is he worth having on the roster for $2 million? That answer might be different than it was on April 1st.

 

Boston Red Sox – B-

Acquired LF Jason Bay for LF Manny Ramirez, RHP Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss, and $7 million

This is one trade where I disagree with a lot of people. The difference between the 2008 version of Manny Ramirez and the 2008 version of Jason Bay just isn’t that much. WARP has it at 0.5 wins. When you add in that Bay is under contract for 2009 at $7.5 million, going from Ramirez to Bay is an upgrade. Was that upgrade worth Hansen, Moss, and a lot of cold hard cash? Probably not, but I think the Red Sox just felt that Ramirez had to go. Don’t get me wrong; Hansen and Moss were never going to be worth much to the Red Sox, but they still had value. For 2008, the Red Sox got slightly worse. For 2009, this was a great move.

 

Kansas City Royals – C

Jose Guillen and his contract were unlikely to be wanted by other teams, but there were others that could have been traded. Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, and Miguel Olivo would have made sense to move. There probably wasn’t much interest in Grudzielanek, but Mahay and Olivo definitely generated some rumors. Mahay and Olivo are under team control for 2009, so the urgency to move them just wasn’t there.

 

Detroit Tigers – C

Acquired RHP Kyle Farnsworth for C Ivan Rodriguez

The Tigers were in a tough situation this trade deadline. Their chances at the postseason aren’t that great (currently 6 GB of the White Sox and Twins), but they spent the offseason mortgaging the future for 2008. They were all-in before the season even began. Having already moved their top prospects in the offseason, they had nothing left to trade for in-season help. They did the best they could by sending Pudge to the Yankees for Farnsworth. They aren’t losing much by using Brandon Inge behind the plate in Rodriguez’s stead while adding another flamethrower to their bullpen. Not a bad move, but not really an impact one either.

 

Minnesota Twins – D

Recalled LHP Francisco Liriano from AAA Rochester; Designated RHP Livan Hernandez for assignment

Livan Hernandez proved that he wasn’t worth keeping in the rotation over a month ago, but the Twins refused to make a move. That was okay at the time because Liriano was coming off consecutive outings where he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP and 5 runs in 5.1 IP. With Liriano not yet ready to return to the majors, it was acceptable to keep giving the ball to Hernandez. After Livan gave up 6 runs in 4.1 IP on July 9th, it should have been time to make this move. Prior to Livan’s next start on July 19th, Liriano had given up 1 run in his last 28 IP. Instead, Liriano got two more minor league starts. So what changed since July 19th, the trade deadline passed and the Twins found that nobody would trade for Hernandez. Wasn’t that known two weeks ago though?

On the no-trade front, it should have been pretty easy for the Twins to make upgrades. The exciting Carlos Gomez isn’t putting any runs on the scoreboard by hitting .257/.289/.353, but he is leading the team in at-bats. Plus, Brendan Harris has 336 at-bats while hitting .262/.321/.381. It’s hard for defense to make up for those numbers, but it’s not hard to improve your team when you have two guys hitting like that.

 

Chicago White Sox – I

Acquired OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million for RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

I give this one an incomplete because it’s going to depend on how Ozzie Guillen sets up his lineups. If they follow through on their promise to Griffey and play him every day in center field, it’s possible that this trade actually makes them worse. If they quickly realize what everyone else has – that Griffey can’t play center anymore – Griffey could be a nice platoon partner for Paul Konerko at first base. For this trade to improve the White Sox, it’s going to take convincing Griffey that he should play first. Given how long it took the Reds to move Griffey to right, that will probably take too long.

 

New York Yankees – B-

Signed 1B Richie Sexson

Acquired OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte for RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and OF Jose Tabata

Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez for RHP Kyle Farnsworth

I’m sure there are a lot of people upset with the Yankees’ unwillingness to trade away their farm system for a better shot at the 2008 playoffs, but Brian Cashman has a plan. He was able to pull off some minor moves without giving up much, but the big question is do they have enough to make the playoffs? I don’t think so, but it’s going to be close.

The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

With the month of April coming to a close, we will be down to 5 months of regular season baseball. This is also a time of the year where a lot of people are starting to completely buy into player’s statistics, so in that vein, I’m going to take a look at starting pitchers to see who should be targeted in fantasy baseball leagues and who should be shopped.

Methodology

I’m only looking at pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title at this point, using the data available at FanGraphs. For the target list, I’m going to list all pitchers with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of less than 4 and a better FIP than ERA. For the shop list, I’m going to list all pitchers with an ERA of less than 3 and a worse FIP than ERA. The idea is that a pitcher’s ERA will more than likely move back towards his FIP as the season progresses.

Pitchers to Target

I'm sorry about the width of this table. I followed the same procedure as the one below, but for some reason, this one's width won't reduce to the proper size. If you scroll over to the last column of the table, you’ll see just how much each pitcher has underperformed his underlying peripherals. From the rest of the guys in the table, Javier Vazquez and Ian Snell stand out.

Coming off a 15-win season with a 3.74 ERA, Vazquez had problems in his first and fifth starts. In his first start, he only went 5 innings, giving up 4 ER with 6 K. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, giving up 6 ER with 3 K. The two bad games came against the Yankees and Indians. In between his bad outings, he threw 20.1 innings with a 2.21 ERA, 3 wins, and 21 strikeouts. However, he’s not going to have a 2.32 ERA the rest of the way either. For a guy that has averaged 26 HR allowed in Chicago, Vazquez has yet to give up a HR in 2008. That’s not going to continue, and although he should continue to rack up the strikeouts, his ERA probably won’t fall much lower than its current level, so I wouldn’t consider him a must-target pitcher.

Similarly, Snell has also not been giving up the home runs so far this year. Snell gave up one to Brian McCann on Opening Day but hasn’t since. He doesn’t have any bad outings like Vazquez, but he also only has one good outing. On April 6, Snell struck out 10 Marlins while only giving up 1 ER over 6 innings. Also similar to Vazquez, I wouldn’t call Snell a must-target pitcher. He will probably lower his ERA a little bit, but he’ll pretty much stay on his current pace.

Instead of looking to acquire one of the big-name pitchers from the list, I’d look to pick up some of these guys as free agents (if possible). Depending on your league setup, Nick Blackburn, #### Bonser, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jair Jurrjens might be available, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Pitchers to Shop

After failing to find any quality pitchers to target, let’s see if there are any pitchers you should be looking to trade away while their value is at its peak.

This list is considerably longer, but it also includes guys I’d be much more willing to make a move on than the previous list. Several of these guys are the type you’ll want to hold onto unless you are offered more than full value for (such as Peavy, Webb, etc.), so I’ll just pick out a few guys that I think should be offered to the gullible owner in your league.

Scott Olsen has only given up one run in his last three starts while going 7+ innings each time. After a closer look, you start to wonder how it’s being done. In the first game of the streak, he struck out three Braves, gave up 5 hits, and walked no one. In the second game, he struck out three Nationals, gave up 3 hits, including a HR to Hanley Ramirez, and walked 2. In his last outing, he struck out zero, gave up 4 hits, and walked 5. It is a rare outing where you walk 5 guys and give up no runs. In those three outings, he walked one more than he struck out (6). That’s not a good sign for the future, and now is a good time to cash out.

Like Olsen, Shawn Chacon has walked as many guys as he’s struck out this season. He is also coming off an outing where he got lucky. In 7 innings against the Cardinals, Chacon struck out 3, walked 6, and allowed 5 hits. That amounted to 2 runs, 1 earned. In addition to his inability to keep guys off the bases via the walk, Chacon has a lengthy track record of not being that good. If you can get somebody to buy high on Chacon, give yourself a pat on the back.

Unlike Olsen and Chacon, Carlos Silva has never been one to walk too many guys in a season. In his best season, he walked 9 guys in 188.1 IP. However, he has also never struck out more than 89 guys in one season. When you rely on your defense as much as Silva does, it’s hard to post a sub-4.00 ERA. For that reason, you can expect Silva’s ERA to jump up as the season progresses. When you combine that with the fact that Silva won’t be helping you in the K category anytime soon, you’ll want to look to put this guy on someone else’s roster before reality sets in.

If you drafted Cliff Lee, congratulations, you’ve gotten a four-game start to the season that is far beyond any reasonable expectations for any starting pitcher (Johan Santana included). The good news is that his peripherals are outstanding (29:2 K/BB ratio), but there’s nothing in his track record that suggests he’ll end up with a sub-3.50 ERA. Lee’s season statistics will definitely command interest on the trade market, and although you won’t get full value for those statistics, you should get considerably more in trade than you can expect from Lee the rest of the way.

Ryan Dempster returned to the starting rotation for the first time in 5 years, and although he could pitch as well as Braden Looper did last year, I wouldn’t expect it. In his last two years as a starter (2002 and 2003), Dempster had ERAs of 5.38 and 6.54. Over the last two years, he racked up 52 saves, but also blew 12 (81% save rate) while posting a 4.76 ERA. Dempster could put a good season as a starter, but I don’t think it will happen and neither should you. Convince someone that he’s back to his Marlin ways and get what you can.

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I hope you guys enjoyed this look at pitchers to target and pitchers to shop article. Over the next few months, I’ll probably post once a week, but I’m a little short on ideas. Last year, when I was writing the “Another One Bites the Dust” series, I planned to do that again this year with one per week, which would mean it would start next weekend. I have several reasons why I shouldn’t, but I’d like to hear what you think. If you have any thoughts on what you’d like me to write, put it in the comments and I’ll do my best to oblige. I don’t say this enough, but I truly appreciate all the feedback you give me.

First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.