Obviously by now, you've noticed that I didn't get the AL West piece up yesterday. Hopefully, I'll get that finished either Monday or Tuesday. Today, I want to go back to the player valuation model I talked about in November.

Back in November, I wrote a couple posts where I used a model based on Nate Silver's work in Baseball Between the Numbers. The first was an attempt to estimate Alex Rodriguez's value to each team, and the second was an evaluation of the MVP award. Soon after, I was pointed in the direction of Vince Gennaro's article doing basically the same thing, only better. At that point, I added his book Diamond Dollars to my list of books to read. I finally bought it and have started reading it. I must say that if you have any interest in his player valuation, sabermetrics, sports business, economics, etc., you should read his book.

One of the things I've learned from the book plays directly into what I wrote about the Blue Jays and completely pushes me in the one direction. When a team wins fewer games than they expected, the amount of revenue each player brings in for the club is lower than expected, which means that the team is probably paying recent free agent acquisitions more than each of them is generating in revenue. That is a pretty obvious statement, but one I had overlooked. Due to the Blue Jays' commitments to several of their players, they need to play for 2008 to keep those players' value to the club up. If they don't play for now, those contracts will all end up on the negative side of the marginal revenue/marginal cost ledger, which means they need to trade for an impact player. No, trading Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen does not count. I consider that a backwards move. I'd rather have Glaus for 2008 (player option for 2009) than Rolen for 2008, 2009, and 2010.

That lesson can be summed up by saying:

"If you're on the fence of whether or not a team should play for this year or the future, look at the team's current contracts. If they've got a lot of money already invested, play for now."

That's not to say that a team destined to be below .500 with a lot of money invested should play for now. At that point, they're sunk costs, and no amount of additional spending will change that. It's only when you're on the fence.

Back when I did my NL Central Preview post, I got accused of being a Cubs fan that was "run[ninng] down the Cardinals out of [my] own jealousy," which I found funny since I'm not (and never have been) a Cubs fan. Back in that preview, I put the Cardinals third in the Central with an 83-79 record. Although they're guaranteed a losing record, they will most likely finish third, so that counts as 50% right, right?

Strengths

With Albert Pujols at first base, they have quite possibly the best player in the major leagues. He hasn't had the best season this year, but he puts up great seasons year after year, so that's what qualifies him as "quite possibly the best." At $48M over the next three years along with a club option for $16M in 2011, he is an incredible bargain. Next year will be his Age-28 season, which is when a lot of players have their best seasons, so it will be interesting to see if Pujols can top his normal .330/.430/.600 season. Although the 2006 World Series Champions are not going to be able to defend their title, they did get some good news from the guy behind the plate. Yadier Molina carried his 2006 postseason hitting into the 2007 season. In 2006, Molina hit .216/.274/.321, which he blew out of the water this year by hitting .275/.340/.368. The youngest Molina might finally be coming into his own at the plate to go with his superior defense behind it.

Elsewhere on the field, they have plenty of outfield depth. Now, they just need to find out if any of it is worth playing everyday for a full season. With Jim Edmonds in center when healthy, the Cardinals will divide the corner outfield playing time among Chris Duncan, So Taguchi (if they pick up his $1.1M option for 2008), Rick Ankiel, Scott Spiezio, Ryan Ludwick, and Skip Schumaker. Normally, the Taguchi decision would be easy as it is only $1.1M for a fourth outfielder, but with all of the other options, the 38 year old Taguchi might be allowed to walk. If they choose the latter option, that means Schumaker will have a roster spot next year as no one else can play an adequate center field in Edmonds' absence. With Edmonds' injury history, the Cards will need a replacement at some point. In an ideal situation, the Cards will just give the playing time to Duncan in left and Ankiel in right, but it could come down to who does better in that small sample they like to call Spring Training. Unfortunately, that means the Cards will have to keep 5 outfielders all year as Scott Spiezio is already under contract for 2008, but some quality help is on the way in Colby Rasmus. Rasmus will start the year at AAA after clubbing his way to a .275/.381/.551 at AA Springfield and could be up with the big league club midseason.

Every year, it seems like Dave Duncan is able to cobble together a good bullpen regardless of what pieces he's given, so even without knowing who will be replacing Russ Springer and Troy Percival (if they sign elsewhere), I'm willing to say that the bullpen is a strength. That could change if the Cards decide to turn down the $8M club option they have on Jason Isringhausen for next year.

Weaknesses

Other than catcher and first base, they have question marks all over the field. We've already covered those in the outfield, so looking at the rest of the infield, David Eckstein is a free agent, Scott Rolen is a severe injury risk, and second base has had performance-related question marks all season. Starting at the hot corner, Rolen has fought with shoulder problems since 2005. After playing in only 56 games in 2005, Rolen managed to play in 141 last year, but he really faded late in the year, hitting only .227/.299/.398 in September due to the aforementioned should problems. This year, he took the surgery route in mid-September after only hitting .265/.331/.398 on the season as he just could not hit for power. How he returns next year could tell us a lot about the rest of his career. He's a key to their chances.

At second base, St. Louis brought in Adam Kennedy on what seemed to be a great deal of 3 years and $10M after many productive years in Anaheim. Most players put up better numbers when they come over to the National League, but Kennedy mostly fell apart by hitting a mere .219/.282/.290. His replacements, Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan, haven't run away with the starting job either, so it will be interesting to see how the Cards approach this situation in the offseason.

Across the bag at shortstop, Eckstein is a free agent and, other than an aging Omar Vizquel, is the only good shortstop on the market. If the Cardinals want him back, they'll have to move quickly before another team sweeps him up.

Last offseason, St. Louis lost nearly all of its 2006 rotation to free agency. Jeff Suppan signed with the Brewers, Jeff Weaver signed with the Mariners, and Jason Marquis signed with the Cubs. All three got great deals from their respective teams, and in the long run, it is probably best that the Cards didn't re-sign them. The rest of last year's rotation was disappointing as well. Chris Carpenter only lasted one bad start before eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, and Anthony Reyes had a 6.08 ERA before being sent down in late May. Carpenter should be back in late 2008, and Reyes is back now (he isn't doing any better). Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper were in the bullpen last year, and they have been the club's best two starting pitchers all year. For the team's sake, they need to be able to duplicate their 2007 seasons next year.

Overall

The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals got a championship, and it's a good thing because they might be having some poor seasons coming up. Having talented players like Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter, and Wainwright on your roster provides you with a shot, but that requires each of them to stay healthy and productive, which isn't very likely over a 162-game season. In addition, their farm system is bereft of many great prospects other than Rasmus. Whether the great Walt Jocketty returns as GM next season or not, the farm system should be a top priority. Pre-free agency players are the greatest source of value in today's game, and every team needs to use that to their advantage. It is possible that 2008 will also see a new manager on the field as LaRussa's contract expires at the end of the season, and it has been rumored that he could retire. Ownership might not want to admit it, but the Cardinals appear to be entering rebuilding mode.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

Only places where the rankings were changed will be mentioned.

Catchers
Fourth Tier
4. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
*5. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
6. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
*7. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

The 4th and 5th tiers have been combined because there just isn't much of a difference between the four players.

First Basemen
Seventh Tier
*11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
*15. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Thomas is down from the sixth tier, and Gonzalez is up from the eighth tier. Remember that Thomas is not eligible at 1B. It was just the most logical position to list him with.

Eighth Tier
...
*20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
*21. Ryan Shealy, Kansas City Royals

I added Youkilis and Shealy to the end of the list because they're close enough to the rest of the 8th tier.

Second Basemen
Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
*4. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
*6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
*7. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
*8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Moved up nearly the entire 3rd tier (minus Kelly Johnson and Ryan Freel) to join Mr. Kendrick in the 2nd. Also, I found the reason I had Brian Roberts down so far. I had a very low AVG projection for him, which was completely out of line with his recent history. Now he's up closer to the top where you'd expect him.

Third Tier
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
11. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After everyone left, Iguchi joins the outfielders masquerading as 2B. (Actually, Johnson will play second base this year unlike Freel. He just doesn't qualify here until about April 15.) 

Fourth Tier
12. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
13. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
*... 

These two standout from the other guys that were in the fourth tier, so the rest are booted down.

Third Basemen
Third Tier
*9. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Gordon drops out of the second tier to join Chipper in the third. Don't expect to draft Gordon if you're in a competitive league. I saw him go in the 7th round yesterday.

Fourth Tier
*11. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

Rolen also experiences a drop down to the cleared out fourth tier, which means that the remainder of the fourth tier now constitutes the fifth tier.

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As always, let me know what you think of the rankings.

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.

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Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.