First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote “The Teflon Manager” Sunday about how Dusty Baker is “ill-suited to his personnel.” I couldn’t agree more. As a former Reds’ fan surrounded by actual Reds’ fans, I couldn’t help but laugh when they hired Dusty Baker. The Reds have four of the top 41 prospects in baseball, and all four will see time in the major leagues this year. Baker has a predilection for veterans at the expense of their more talented but unproven challengers. He also has been blamed for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Neither of these can be good for the development of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, or Johnny Cueto.

We’ll start with Joey Votto, who is a major subject in this blog and its comments. Baker wants Votto to become more aggressive than the take-and-rake approach that has made him the 21st prospect in baseball. Some people, such as an anonymous posted on the above blog, agree with this philosophy because “I'll take 50 walks and 200 hits over 150 hits and 100 walks any day.” I don’t think you’ll find anyone that disagrees with that statement. The problem is when you take a guy that gets 150 hits and 100 walks and try to turn him into a guy with 200 hits and 50 walks, you’ll probably end up with a guy that gets 160-170 hits and 50-60 walks. I’m not saying that Votto would get 150 hits and 100 walks, but the logic still stands. Dusty, please leave Votto alone. His approach has gotten him this far, and he’ll be better without your “help.”

With the two pitchers Bailey and Cueto, the worry is that Baker hasn’t learned his lesson from Wood and Prior. Only time will tell. As Nate Silver put it, “If the careers of Bailey and Cueto are ruined by high pitch counts, it will be Dusty who pulled the trigger–but the Reds who hired the assassin.”

When it comes to the top prospect in baseball Jay Bruce, Baker is so worried about having a leadoff hitter in the lineup that he’s ignoring the first step in making out a lineup: get the top 8 players out on the field. Jay Bruce split his time over three levels in 2007. He hit .325/.379/.586, .333/.405/.652, and .305/.358/.567 at High-A, AA, and AAA. The Reds kept challenging him by moving him up, and Bruce kept showing that he can hit. The competition in center includes Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel, and Norris Hopper. Patterson has a career OBP of .298, enough said. Freel’s career line is .270/.358/.378, so while he can get on base as well as Bruce, he doesn’t have the power that Bruce has. Hopper was 27 before he made it to the majors in 2006. Last year, Hopper saw significant time in the Reds’ outfield and hit .329/.371/.388; so again, he has the on-base ability of Bruce but not the power. Bruce is ready for the majors, but it won’t be surprising if he ends up back at AAA to start the year. As an example of what he can add to the Reds’ 2008 team, I have used PECOTA’s projections and Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis to estimate the Reds’ projected lineup with Baker’s likely choice in center Patterson and the Reds’ projected lineup with Bruce.

With Patterson:

1. Corey Patterson
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 4.845

With Bruce:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 5.024

They estimate Bruce to add nearly 0.2 runs per game to the Reds’ lineup, or 32.4 runs over 162 games. That’s equivalent to about 3 wins in the standings. I think it’s safe to say that their defensive difference isn’t worth that much.

Dusty Baker’s tendencies don’t fit the current profile of the Cincinnati Reds. Following the Reds’ 2007 season, their hopes for 2008 were high based on their four major league-ready top prospects. With Dusty Baker running the show, Reds’ fans should be worried.

The NL West quite possibly has the most up-and-coming stars in the major leagues, which should make it fun to watch for years to come.

Arizona Diamondbacks – I love the Dan Haren trade for the Diamondbacks. They gave up a lot of their farm system, but the Diamondbacks should be contenders for the division title through 2010 when Haren and staff ace Brandon Webb become free agents (among others). This was a last piece of the puzzle type of move. Unfortunately, their divisional opponents could force them to make another one next year (this particular puzzle grows over time). In the Jose Valverde trade, Chris Burke was one of the players Arizona acquired. He’s been expected to start producing each of the last three years, but it hasn’t happened. Consider me one of the doubters: the Diamondbacks should talk to Orlando Hudson about an extension immediately. Coming into spring training, Chad Tracy is on the outside looking in at a corner infield job. If he proves healthy, he could get something in trade, but the Diamondbacks don’t have any holes on the current roster. Until they have an injury that creates a hole, Bob Melvin can use Tracy, Mark Reynolds, and Conor Jackson to man first and third. Tracy can fill in for one of them against righties and serve as insurance in case either of them struggle early on.

Colorado Rockies – Two weeks ago, I sat down and went through the team rosters and contracts. Back then, I wrote down on the Rockies that they should sign Marcus Giles in case Ian Stewart cannot move to second base. It’s too bad that I can no longer say that with any substantial proof. Now that they have Giles, it’s like they have two possible solutions instead of one: Stewart might be able to play second and Giles might re-learn how to hit. If neither works out, they still have the same fall-back plan – Omar Quintanilla. Moving forward to their other weak spot, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales burst onto the scene late last season, but neither are completely ready to handle a full-season big league job. Both have struggled with limiting walks to their opponents. Jimenez walked 5.42 per 9 at AAA and 4.06 per 9 in the majors; Morales walked 4.23 per 9 at AA, 6.88 per 9 at AAA, and 3.20 per in the majors. While Morales was able to take a major step forward in that department in the majors, it was in a limited sample size of only 39.1 innings. To me, it seems like those two can be counted to fill one rotation spot. Which one fills that spot is up in the air. Just in case, I’d like to see Taylor Buchholz given a chance to win a spot in the rotation. The Rockies need Morales and Jimenez to develop correctly because the pitchers’ 2009 – 2013 is more important that 2008. Hopefully, that is the reasoning behind wasting $4M on Kip Wells and Mark Redman. If Wells and Redman are ever standing in the way of someone more talented, then those deals could ruin the Rockies’ 2008 season.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are loaded with a surplus of talent, but their recent history has shown a reluctance to play the best of that talent. In 2008, Joe Torre needs to give Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier the opportunity to play full-time. If they fall on their faces, they’ve got Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre waiting on the bench, but realizing that Nomar and Pierre are no longer MLB starters is necessary. The same kind of depth is found all over the roster. The major thing for the ’08 Dodgers is giving the playing time to those most deserving. After the season, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Derek Lowe are free agents. I’d sign Furcal to an extension because although Chin-Lung Hu can replace him at short next year, someone has to replace Kent at second.

San Diego Padres – The Padres are a team that always seems to sneak up on people. It doesn’t seem like many think of them as a great team, but they’re there in the end. I think that mostly has to do with playing in a low-scoring stadium on the West Coast. Their pitching staff is loaded with talent and, unfortunately, injury risk. Jake Peavy and Chris Young have had their issues in the past, but their injury risk is dwarfed by Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. If all stay healthy, they could be dangerous, but I think Padres’ fans will see a lot of Justin Germano starting on the mound. In the outfield, they have lost both Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron. In their place, Scott Hairston and Jim Edmonds will see a lot of time with young 3B prospect Chase Headley seeing some action as well. The Padres will be depending on their medical staffs this year as much as the guys taking the field. In the long-term, they could re-sign Khalil Greene, but there’s no rush since he has two more seasons before free agency. Michael Barrett, Jim Edmonds, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, and Trevor Hoffman are all free agents following the season, but none are guys you build an organization around. All this sums up to not a lot of movement needed before the season starts.

San Francisco Giants – If you were a potential GM and you were offered the Giants’ job, would you take it? That’s a hard question to answer since we’re not potential GMs, but I can’t see someone like Chris Antonetti of the Indians taking the job. Of course, the question is purely hypothetical since Brian Sabean is still the GM. For years, he had followed the model of win now because he had the game’s best player in Barry Bonds. Now that Bonds is gone, all that’s left is a pile of rubble and great pitching staff. Let’s take a look at their projected lineup: Dave Roberts, Kevin Frandsen, Randy Winn, Bengie Molina, Aaron Rowand, Ray Durham, Dan Ortmeier, and Omar Vizquel. Using their 2007 numbers, the lineup analyzer has the Giants scoring 4.1 runs per game or 664 runs next year. The Nationals were worst last year at 673. Using the Pythagorean Expectation algorithm, the Giants would have to give up fewer than 3.7 runs per game to win the 90 it will take to win the division. Only the Padres’ ERA was able to match that last year, but that doesn’t count unearned runs. Getting past my dire expectations for the 2008 Giants, the Giants have a rotation they can build around. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are dominant starting pitchers, Noah Lowry is a good #3, Barry Zito is an overpaid #4 starter (alternatively, read Opening Day starter), and either Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez can easily fill the last spot in the rotation with the other being rotation insurance. The Giants need to re-build their farm system and pick up offensive pieces over time to salvage this mess in preparation of fielding a contender before Cain becomes a free agent in 2011.

The NL West should be exciting this year and the next several years. The door is open for four of the division’s five teams; it’s just a matter of which one can beat the others through it and into the playoffs.

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I'll be back either tomorrow or Thursday with my projected divisional standings. They will only be ordered because I'm not ready to throw projected win totals next to any of them yet.

The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.

Strengths

The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.

Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.

The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.

Concerns

Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.

Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.

Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.

Overall

If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.

With tonight's loss to Philadelphia, the Atlanta Braves are officially eliminated from the playoffs. With Andruw Jones's disappointing season and the fact that the Braves employ 3/5 of a starting rotation, it's surprising they made it this far.

Strengths

Around the horn, the Braves have a strong set of infielders. Chipper Jones has once again proven that when he is on the field (I was going to say healthy, but even when playing, he's never healthy), he is still a great player. He was joined this year by Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and midseason acquisition Mark Teixeira. With the emergence of Yunel Escobar this season, there has been talk of Edgar Renteria being on the trade market, and given the holes that I will discuss later, John Schuerholz just might pursue that option.

Out in the outfield, Matt Diaz, Willie Harris, and Jeff Francoeur have had pretty good seasons. Diaz and Harris have been a great platoon in left, and Francoeur is proving that talent and age truly do trump poor plate discipline over time. Diaz has hit .356/.384/.580 against lefties, and Harris has hit .291/.370/.428 against righties. Meanwhile, Francoeur has been great defensively and is learning to manage the strike zone offensively. After only 23 walks in 2006, Francoeur has walked 41 times this year at 23. He's lost some of his power stroke, but again, he's only 23 so he should figure things out. Unfortunately, the Braves don't have an easy replacement for Andruw Jones, which means they'll need to re-sign him, sign one of the other free agent center fielders (Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand), or pick one up in a trade.

Behind the plate, Brian McCann has regressed from his tremendous 2006 season, but it is very rare for a catcher to have back-to-back .333/.388/.572 while playing well defensively. His .272/.322/.456 is certainly nothing to sneeze at from your backstop.

Pitching to McCann, the Braves have seen #1 seasons from both John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. They should both be in the NL Cy Young race, but since their teams weren't good enough to make the playoffs, they won't get enough votes to win (nor should they, Jake Peavy should be the runaway winner). As a #3 starter, 25 year old Chuck James has done well.

Weaknesses

Aside from the center field problem that everyone knows about, the Braves need .... pitching help? A few years ago, that would have been unheard of. Although they have Smoltz and Hudson at the front of the rotation and Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan doing good work out in the pen, the Braves need to fix the back of the rotation and the rest of the bullpen. Mike Gonzalez won't be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason, and Octavio Dotel has been horrible since coming over to the NL. Dotel has a player option at $5.5M for 2008, but the club has the option to void it. The Braves aren't usually big players on the free agent market, but they might be able to find some answers on the trade market. Schuerholz has had a lot of success there.

Overall

The Atlanta Braves have several pieces in place, but they still have some holes that need fixing. If they fail to keep or replace Andruw Jones in center field, that could be a problem in terms of putting runs on the board and keeping them off. The NL East will continue to be a tough place to compete, but the Braves are no stranger to the top of the division. I don't expect 2008 to be their year, but it wouldn't surprise me either.