With the month of April coming to a close, we will be down to 5 months of regular season baseball. This is also a time of the year where a lot of people are starting to completely buy into player’s statistics, so in that vein, I’m going to take a look at starting pitchers to see who should be targeted in fantasy baseball leagues and who should be shopped.

Methodology

I’m only looking at pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title at this point, using the data available at FanGraphs. For the target list, I’m going to list all pitchers with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of less than 4 and a better FIP than ERA. For the shop list, I’m going to list all pitchers with an ERA of less than 3 and a worse FIP than ERA. The idea is that a pitcher’s ERA will more than likely move back towards his FIP as the season progresses.

Pitchers to Target

I'm sorry about the width of this table. I followed the same procedure as the one below, but for some reason, this one's width won't reduce to the proper size. If you scroll over to the last column of the table, you’ll see just how much each pitcher has underperformed his underlying peripherals. From the rest of the guys in the table, Javier Vazquez and Ian Snell stand out.

Coming off a 15-win season with a 3.74 ERA, Vazquez had problems in his first and fifth starts. In his first start, he only went 5 innings, giving up 4 ER with 6 K. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, giving up 6 ER with 3 K. The two bad games came against the Yankees and Indians. In between his bad outings, he threw 20.1 innings with a 2.21 ERA, 3 wins, and 21 strikeouts. However, he’s not going to have a 2.32 ERA the rest of the way either. For a guy that has averaged 26 HR allowed in Chicago, Vazquez has yet to give up a HR in 2008. That’s not going to continue, and although he should continue to rack up the strikeouts, his ERA probably won’t fall much lower than its current level, so I wouldn’t consider him a must-target pitcher.

Similarly, Snell has also not been giving up the home runs so far this year. Snell gave up one to Brian McCann on Opening Day but hasn’t since. He doesn’t have any bad outings like Vazquez, but he also only has one good outing. On April 6, Snell struck out 10 Marlins while only giving up 1 ER over 6 innings. Also similar to Vazquez, I wouldn’t call Snell a must-target pitcher. He will probably lower his ERA a little bit, but he’ll pretty much stay on his current pace.

Instead of looking to acquire one of the big-name pitchers from the list, I’d look to pick up some of these guys as free agents (if possible). Depending on your league setup, Nick Blackburn, #### Bonser, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jair Jurrjens might be available, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Pitchers to Shop

After failing to find any quality pitchers to target, let’s see if there are any pitchers you should be looking to trade away while their value is at its peak.

This list is considerably longer, but it also includes guys I’d be much more willing to make a move on than the previous list. Several of these guys are the type you’ll want to hold onto unless you are offered more than full value for (such as Peavy, Webb, etc.), so I’ll just pick out a few guys that I think should be offered to the gullible owner in your league.

Scott Olsen has only given up one run in his last three starts while going 7+ innings each time. After a closer look, you start to wonder how it’s being done. In the first game of the streak, he struck out three Braves, gave up 5 hits, and walked no one. In the second game, he struck out three Nationals, gave up 3 hits, including a HR to Hanley Ramirez, and walked 2. In his last outing, he struck out zero, gave up 4 hits, and walked 5. It is a rare outing where you walk 5 guys and give up no runs. In those three outings, he walked one more than he struck out (6). That’s not a good sign for the future, and now is a good time to cash out.

Like Olsen, Shawn Chacon has walked as many guys as he’s struck out this season. He is also coming off an outing where he got lucky. In 7 innings against the Cardinals, Chacon struck out 3, walked 6, and allowed 5 hits. That amounted to 2 runs, 1 earned. In addition to his inability to keep guys off the bases via the walk, Chacon has a lengthy track record of not being that good. If you can get somebody to buy high on Chacon, give yourself a pat on the back.

Unlike Olsen and Chacon, Carlos Silva has never been one to walk too many guys in a season. In his best season, he walked 9 guys in 188.1 IP. However, he has also never struck out more than 89 guys in one season. When you rely on your defense as much as Silva does, it’s hard to post a sub-4.00 ERA. For that reason, you can expect Silva’s ERA to jump up as the season progresses. When you combine that with the fact that Silva won’t be helping you in the K category anytime soon, you’ll want to look to put this guy on someone else’s roster before reality sets in.

If you drafted Cliff Lee, congratulations, you’ve gotten a four-game start to the season that is far beyond any reasonable expectations for any starting pitcher (Johan Santana included). The good news is that his peripherals are outstanding (29:2 K/BB ratio), but there’s nothing in his track record that suggests he’ll end up with a sub-3.50 ERA. Lee’s season statistics will definitely command interest on the trade market, and although you won’t get full value for those statistics, you should get considerably more in trade than you can expect from Lee the rest of the way.

Ryan Dempster returned to the starting rotation for the first time in 5 years, and although he could pitch as well as Braden Looper did last year, I wouldn’t expect it. In his last two years as a starter (2002 and 2003), Dempster had ERAs of 5.38 and 6.54. Over the last two years, he racked up 52 saves, but also blew 12 (81% save rate) while posting a 4.76 ERA. Dempster could put a good season as a starter, but I don’t think it will happen and neither should you. Convince someone that he’s back to his Marlin ways and get what you can.

---

I hope you guys enjoyed this look at pitchers to target and pitchers to shop article. Over the next few months, I’ll probably post once a week, but I’m a little short on ideas. Last year, when I was writing the “Another One Bites the Dust” series, I planned to do that again this year with one per week, which would mean it would start next weekend. I have several reasons why I shouldn’t, but I’d like to hear what you think. If you have any thoughts on what you’d like me to write, put it in the comments and I’ll do my best to oblige. I don’t say this enough, but I truly appreciate all the feedback you give me.

Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery. After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they should be back in contention for the Central once again.

Strengths

Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).

Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings. Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In 2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47 in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up 14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1 major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 2.68 is still pretty dominant.

Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno (.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.

Concerns

If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that should start in Baltimore next season.

Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field, Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a .202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is probably best used in a utility role.

As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit .326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit .281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.

It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.

Overall

As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good shape.

---

Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be moving on.