While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’#### .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.

Unlike the team I covered yesterday, today's team is actually eliminated from the playoff chase. The New York Yankees only need one win or one Tiger loss to eliminate the Detroit Tigers. In the other league, the Los Angeles Dodgers are officially eliminated after last night's loss and Padre victory.

Strengths

Contrary to what Jeff Kent thinks, the youngsters are this team's greatest strength. Kent is frustrated and mistakenly taking it out on the young guys' inexperience, although the youngsters have been a lot better than the veterans they're replacing. Kent has hinted at retirement in the offseason, but if he chooses to return and the Dodgers exercise their $9M team option, he'll continue to be one of the best hitting second baseman in the league. The option should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to exercise, and given general manager Ned Colletti's affinity for veterans, it should be picked up.

As for the youngsters, there's catcher Russell Martin (.297/.380/.472 at 24), first baseman James Loney (.335/.384/.538 at 23), shortstop Chin-Lung Hu (.318/.337/.505 as a 23 year old in AAA and possibly the best defensive shortstop currently in the majors), third baseman Andy LaRoche (.309/.399/.589 as a 23 year old in AAA, including .365/.447/.817 since the All-Star break), outfielders Matt Kemp (.331/.364/.509 at 22), Andre Ethier (.288/.353/.458 at 25), and Delwyn Young (.337/.384/.571 as a 25 year old in AAA). Given the statistics, all seven of these guys deserve an everyday job in the majors. Once you get the scouting opinion, six of these seven deserve an everyday job (Delwyn Young is considered a fourth outfielder in the end). Taking those six along with Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre, it would be nice if they could find a way to get all but Pierre on the field everyday (teams need to learn that the ability to get on base is more important than the ability to take the next one). However, that would leave them with five infielders and two outfielders, which keeps Pierre in the lineup. So who gets kept out of the everyday lineup? It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dodgers make the mistake of 2007 all over again and play Nomar Garciaparra, Pierre, Furcal, and Kent at the expense of LaRoche, Hu, and Young. It would be nice to see the team bench Garciaparra and trade Furcal for some pitching help since you can never have too much of that.

Moving to the rotation, the Dodgers are hoping for Jason Schmidt to make a full recovery in time for spring training, but everyone rehabs differently. Since Schmidt suffered a shoulder injury, his velocity will let you know if he's ready. The rest of the rotation will be made up of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and 23 year old Chad Billingsley (that Logan White really knows how to run a scouting department). The fifth spot in the rotation could be up for grabs among Esteban Loaiza, Mark Hendrickson, and Eric Stults. If you're wondering where all the young arms are (other than Billingsley), 19 year old Clayton Kershaw is regarded as the best left handed pitcher in the minor leagues, if not the best regardless of handedness. Kershaw made it up to AA, but after only five starts there, he's probably due to return to Jacksonville for next year. Splitting time between Low-A and AA, he had a 2.95 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 122 innings.

In the later innings, the Dodgers have turned to Joe Beimel, 23 year old Jonathan Broxton, and Takashi Saito to hammer things down, and they haven't disappointed. Beimel will be due arbitration, and I think Saito hasn't even reached arbitration yet. Given that, all three will be back next year and could be joined by 23 year old Jonathan Meloan. Meloan has not pitched well in his four innings in the majors, but at AAA, he dominated with 91 strikeouts and a 2.03 ERA over 66.2 innings.

Weaknesses

Other than the aforementioned fifth starter spot and Colletti's affinity for experience over talent, the Dodgers don't have many weaknesses. Sometimes, a great scouting department really makes the general manager's job much easier.

Overall

The Dodgers are set up well for both 2008 and the foreseeable future. Following next year, they'll have some decisions to make with Kent (free agency), Lowe (free agency), and Penny (2009 team option for $8.75M), but the Dodgers are in an enviable position going forward.

We're back with another shot at the fantasy positional rankings, starting up again with catchers. I looked at my past leagues to find that it takes about 18 runs, 7 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, and .002 points in batting average to move a spot in each category. For catchers, the replacement level is updated to 57 runs, 14 home runs, 60 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a .278 batting average.

First Tier
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer tops the list with a huge advantage in runs and batting average while being above average in RBI and SB.

Second Tier
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
McCann broke out last year, displaying big power numbers for a catcher. He should be good for an advantage in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

Third Tier
3. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Martinez doesn't quite keep up with McCann as he hits for a lower average with fewer home runs.

Fourth Tier
4. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
5. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
After looking at the numbers, I've decided that I was ranking Barrett much too low and have bumped up to fifth. While Barrett was having a great season, Johjima proved that he was able to come from Japan and produce as they both provide a good supply of runs, RBI, and AVG.

Fifth Tier
6. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Hernandez and Rodriguez will produce an average number of runs and RBI. But while Hernandez gives slightly more home runs, the difference is offset by Pudge's ability to steal bases and hit for average.

Sixth Tier
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Mike Piazza, Oakland Athletics
10. Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh Pirates

All five of these guys are very close to replacement level. While Varitek might as well take the title Replacement Fantasy Catcher as he is at replacement level across the board, the other four have advantages and disadvantages that should be considered if you are choosing between them. Each of them has some advantages: Posada - R, RBI; Piazza - HR, RBI; Martin - R, SB; and Paulino - AVG. These advantages are offset by their weaknesses: Posada - AVG; Piazza - R, AVG; Martin - HR, RBI; and Paulino - HR. All things considered, these five catchers have similar value in your typical fantasy league.

Seventh Tier
13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
14. Miguel Olivo, Florida Marlins
15. Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets
16. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Pierzynski is just slightly below the Varitek (replacement) level across the board. Olivo's extra stolen bases are severely offset by his low batting average, Lo Duca's lack of power places him in this category, and Molina's plodding on the basepaths limits his run scoring ability. These limitations drops these four guys into the top of the list of replacement players.

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That's the initial list. Again, I'll take any comments, complains, suggestions, etc. into consideration for a future revision of the list.

 

Before delving into the rankings, I'd like to let you know the format I am using. Although I am listing them in a ranking format, I am going to stress that I am not so worried about the individual rankings. (i.e. shouldn't Player A be listed ahead of Player B?) What am I looking for? Putting guys into groupings. This approach will demonstrate where there is a drop-off at positions. In this way, you have a better idea of when you should draft a particular position. If there is only one player in a tier at 3B and four players left in a tier at 2B, it's probably a better idea to grab the 3B. Keep in mind I'd like to hear differing opinions about players, especially if you think I've severely over- or under-rated him. Now we begin behind the plate...

1st Tier

1. Joe Mauer

2. Brian McCann

3. Victor Martinez

2nd Tier

4. Russell Martin

5. Kenji Johjima

3rd Tier

6. Ivan Rodriguez

7. A.J. Pierzynski

8. Ramon Hernandez

9. Jorge Posada

10. Michael Barrett

11. Mike Piazza

4th Tier

12. Jason Varitek

13. Gerald Laird

14. Rod Barajas

5th Tier

15. David Ross

16. Dioner Navarro

Feel free to comment and I might change things around if you convince me. The list might be a changing list to become more of a consensus listing.