Tonight, I was watching the Rays and Yankees on ESPN2, and
the subject of Rocco Baldelli came up. Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser were
talking about something they don’t really know about – mitochondrial disease.
Now, I don’t know much about the disease, but I don’t believe what they were
saying. Phillips and Hershiser were talking about the amount of time that
Baldelli has missed and how mitochondrial disease possibly played a role. Hershiser
claimed that the disease made him so fatigued at times that Baldelli felt he
was injured, implying that he wasn’t actually injured. Let’s see here – torn ACL,
torn UCL (Tommy John surgery), recurrent hamstring problems. Those sound like
real injuries to me. From what I understand, Baldelli becomes more fatigued due
to the disease. When athletes get fatigued, their mechanics start to fail,
whether they be throwing, hitting, or running. When you start to go away from
your normal mechanics, your body is taxed differently than it normally is, and
that results in injuries. If they wanted to tie his disease in with his
injuries, that’s the route to take, not the seemingly “fake” injuries route.
They also gave their opinions on the Joba Chamberlain plan.
They proclaimed that they don’t think the Yankees have the bullpen depth to
move Chamberlain out of the 8th-inning role. They also covered the
risks in their rotation, but I feel they left out one major component. Tom
Verducci and Will Carroll have both mentioned a rule involved with young
pitchers – an increase of over 30 innings from one year to the next results in
heightened risk (injury and/or loss of effectiveness) the following year. That
means that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can’t be in the rotation all season, and
that’s probably a major reason why the Yankees are planning on moving Joba to
the rotation.
Getting off my soapbox, I’d like to talk about the Chris Young
extension. It’s rumored that the deal is about the same as the deal Troy
Tulowitzki ($31M over 6 years) got in January. Just over a month ago, I
mentioned Young as a guy that would be worth signing to an extension after a
good 2008 season, but it seems that Arizona is more confident in Young’s
ability. This type of extension is one that is great for both sides. Young gets
the guaranteed millions every young player dreams of, and Arizona gets cost
certainty through 2013. Congratulations to both Chris Young and Diamondbacks’
fans.
Today is the 22nd last day of the major league season, and there are 22 teams that will fail to make the playoffs. My plan is to eliminate one of those teams everyday for the rest of the season. Sure, many of these teams are already pretty much done (and I have a plan for starting this earlier next year), but I also plan on doing a little review of each team's season.
First up is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. According to Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds Report, the Rays were statistically eliminated all the way back on July 13. That's what happens when you're in the same division as the Boston Red Sox, who had a 91% chance of winning the division all the way back on May 15 and still own a 98% chance of being division champions.
The Good
They caught lightning in a bottle on the free talent market with Carlos Pena, who hit 37 HR to go along with a .274/.397/.606 batting line. The 29-year old probably just had his peak year. I expect the Rays to offer him arbitration and give him the chance to prove it wasn't a fluke. After B.J. Upton proved that he still can't play in the infield, he was moved to center field. He's played pretty well out there, and his bat has finally translated to the majors, hitting .314/.399/.546 so far. Over in left field, Carl Crawford continued to show that he is a solid part of the lineup as his OBP continued its upward trend this season to .361. Sure, it's not near where Pena and Upton were, but it is encouraging to see him getting on base more in order to put his speed to great use.
On the pitching side, Scott Kazmir started slowly but has really come on in the second half with a 2.82 ERA since the All-Star break. In that time, he's cut down on his home run and walk rates while increasing his strikeout rate. Other than Kazmir, James Shields is the only other current starter that has shown the ability to pitch in a major league rotation. Shields needs to work on keeping the ball in the park, having given up 27 HR this year (less than only Johan Santana, which is interesting), but he has really cut down on the walk rate while maintaining the strikeout rate. That's a pretty good 1-2 (or at least 2-3) to build a rotation around.
The Bad
Rocco Baldelli has spent even more time on the Disabled List this year than he did in 2006. He's even mentioned retirement recently, but it seems like that was just vented frustration. Delmon Young has still not tapped into that potential that scouts gushed about when he was in the minor leagues, but he only turns 22 next week so he's got time to turn things around. Other than the two starting pitchers mentioned above, the rest of the rotation was terrible. All told, the Rays' pitching staff has an ERA of 5.60. That isn't going to get the job done.
Looking Forward
With Evan Longoria (no, not the Desperate Housewife) having hit well in AA and AAA this season, it won't be long before he's ready for the big leagues. Since he's moved from SS to 3B, I'm assuming he's not up to the task at SS. If that's the case, the Rays need to find out if Akinori Iwamura can actually play second base as many hinted at coming into this season.
They need to figure out what they're going to do with Elijah Dukes. If they are done dealing with his off-the-field problems, they might want to look into getting whatever they can for him before his value becomes nil.
Depending on their trade value and how the Rays view them, they might want to look into trading either Crawford or Baldelli. Baldelli's value is reduced right now because he's hurt, but even when he's healthy, I doubt his trade value goes up that much because he already has that injury-prone label stitched into his uniform. Crawford has a pretty team-friendly contract right now, which might bring quite a bit back in a trade. He's already 26, the outfield is beginning to get crowded, and he just might get the Rays the pitching help they so obviously need.
Speaking of pitching, I keep hearing that the Rays have an incredible amount of pitching talent moving their ways up the system, but I have yet to see it come to fruition. I'm not doubting it's there, but pitching prospects fizzle out more often than hitting prospects.
The Rays most likely will not contend in 2008, but the future has never shone more brightly for Tampa Bay.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
