This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.

Trade Market

One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts. Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due $6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts and Ellis should be on their ways out.

As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year, $15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had 70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.

The next tier of teams that should be interested in upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years. Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.

The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart. If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third. One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.

Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot (assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa, Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their ’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.

Contract Extensions

Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At 30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.

When looking at young second baseman worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration, so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005 before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club. Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before awarding him with a big-time contract.

Recap

Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree. The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks.

Milwaukee's highly touted young position players shined through this year. They weren't able to hold onto a playoff spot, but this team isn't going away. Most of their young talent will be Brewers for at least three more seasons.

Strengths

The Brewers' number on strength is the young talent that is starting to leave their mark on the NL. Early in the year, it was Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy leading the way. After Hardy cooled off, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart joined Fielder at the head of the pack, and ever since his return from a minor league demotion, Rickie Weeks has been hitting the cover off the ball. Their infield looks incredibly strong going forward even if Braun might be forced to the outfield due his faulty defense. His bat more than makes up for his defensive miscues as he's hit .325/.370/.639 and put himself at the front of the rookie class. Across the diamond, Fielder has been mentioned in the NL MVP race, though his chances are seriously diminished with his team out of the playoff race. At second base, Weeks was demoted to the minors after a disappointing July where he only hit .125/.279/.143 and was at .212/.330/.363 overall. After 6 games of hitting .455/.571/.682 at AAA Nashville, Weeks returned to the majors and has hit .277/.447/.553 in his time back and improved his overall line to a respectable .235/.375.430. Weeks seems to have turned things around and could be back on his way to the stardom he was expected to reach.

Out in right field, Corey Hart finally convinced Ned Yost that he deserves to play everyday at the end of May. In his time in right field, Hart has played very well defensively and hit .294/.352/.529 on the season. One quality that Hart brings to the table that fans don't expect from a 6'6 guy is speed. He's been successful on 23 steals in 30 attempts. I'm not a big fan of the steal as a weapon, but it does indicate that Hart has a well-rounded set of tools to work with.

Another one of the Brewers' strong suits is the rotation. Yost has had plenty of options to turn into the rotation even if some of them have had their problems. The staff ace is Ben Sheets, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few seasons, which is one of the key qualities teams look for in a staff ace. Lucky for the Brewers, they have a very strong #2 going forward in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was inserted in the rotation when Sheets got hurt and hasn't looked back. Gallardo has a 3.67 ERA over 110.1 innings this season and should be a lock for the 2008 rotation. With Jeff Suppan being his league-average self, he's a good choice as a team's #3 starter. With the remaining two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will have to choose from a group of Chris Capuano, David Bush, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, which isn't a bad group to choose from. Capuano had two good seasons in 2005 and 2006 (~4.00 ERA over 220 innings), but he has not had the same success this year with his ERA ballooning to 5.09, pushing him to the bullpen for a stretch and limiting him to 145 innings this year. On the other end of the major league service time spectrum, Parra enjoyed a tremendous amount of success this year. In one of his rare healthy seasons (although he made an appearance on the DL, it classifies as healthy for him), Parra dominated AA (2.68 ERA over 80.2 innings) and then AAA (1.73 ERA over 26 innings) before getting a call-up to the bullpen. During his time in the majors, he has made two starts (both quality starts) and thrown 14 innings out of the bullpen, accumulating a 3.76 ERA. It shouldn't be too hard to find two quality starters out of that group of five.

Concerns (changed from Weaknesses)

The Brewers' left field situation has been a convoluted mess as nine different players have seen time out there. Going into next year, their viable options are Geoff Jenkins ($9M team option), Kevin Mench (due arbitration), Gabe Gross, or a free agent. In 2007, the Brewers tried using a platoon, which worked to a certain degree of success, and they could opt to go that route for one more year. Kevin Mench crushed lefties to the tune of .316/.345/.561, and Jenkins hit righties at a .264/.328/.481 clip. Is Jenkins's left-handed half of a platoon worth the $9M he'd be owed if the team picked up his option or will they give him the $0.5M buyout? To put that into context, Gabe Gross his .246/.328/.455 against righties. If they cut ties with Jenkins, Gross isn't much of a drop-off. He gets on base at the same rate with basically the same amount of power.

Another option would be to venture into the free agent market, but the options are pretty limited. Keeping mind the fact that 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta could be up as early as midseason 2008 if everything goes right, the Brewers would only be looking for a short-term filler at the position. Using this knowledge while perusing the available options, I found Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton. Bonds isn't a very good fit for the Brewers, so we'll cross him off, which leaves Lofton. Lofton is getting up there in age and could choose retirement (I haven't heard anything on that front), but he fits the Brewers need. Against righties this year, Lofton has hit .315/.387/.454 and would bring that veteran element they would lose with Jenkins's departure.

The other concern for the Brewers is Francisco Cordero's free agency. If they are unable to re-sign him, they will most likely have to turn back to Derrick Turnbow as their closer. After an All-Star 2005 in which he had a 1.74 ERA over 67.1 innings, he had a terrible 2006. His 6.87 ERA that year prompted the acquisition of Cordero in the first place. This year, he has a more respectable 4.63 ERA over 68 innings, but that isn't what you'd like from your #1 option in the bullpen. Cordero should be the Brewers' #1 priority heading into the offseason. The only available alternatives I could think of were Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood.

Overall

Heading into 2008, the Brewers need to resolve their bullpen and left field situations. It is rare for me to say this, but their bullpen might be the bigger problem. Given these two concerns, it is pretty easy to say that the Brewers will be at the top of the NL Central for the foreseeable future fighting it out with the Cubs.

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.