The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

Back on Monday, I introduced my new “Balancing the Market” series with catchers. To start off, I wasn’t so sure of the concept and first base isn’t going to make that go away, but I have a feeling things will pick up as we move around the diamond. For now, the format will remain the same. Next up is first baseman, and this is going to be short.

Trade Market

No one really has a spare first baseman that can make an impact in 2008 for someone else, so there’s not really much of a market here. The closest players I can find are Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson. Johnson needs to prove he’s healthy and can still produce, Teixeira would have to see his team fall out of contention, and Sexson would have to see his team fall out of contention and prove he can still produce. Check back in July; there might be a few first basemen on the trade market then.

Contract Extensions

Contracts expiring at the end of the season include Teixeira, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado ($16M option with a $4M buyout). Teixeira is the only one worth trying to extend before the season.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard stand out as players in their pre-free agency years that are worth re-signing. Both players have four years before free agency, but remember that Howard is already 28. Given his age, Howard is worth a 3-year extension with an extra club option year (pre-FA arbitration is still an option if the team declines). On the other hand, Fielder is only 23. In an attempt to lock up his peak years, I’d wait until next year to discuss an extension.

Recap

For this short of an article, do we even need a recap? Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson could all make their way to the trade block this season. In the meantime, the Braves should try to sign Teixeira to an extension, while the Phillies should try to lock up Howard’s arbitration years. If the Brewers are confident that Fielder will be a force for years to come, they could work out a deal now, but I’d rather wait until next offseason to give him that extension – give him one more year to prove he’s worth the long-term deal.

A few days ago, I said that I was hoping to catch up to when teams were actually being eliminated. Now two days later, I'm writing off the 2007 Mariners, who technically still have a shot. Since they'd need to win out and the Yankees to lose out, I think it's a safe bet to say they're out of the running.

Strengths

With Kenji Johjima performing well at the major league level and Jeff Clement proving himself ready with the bat (if not the glove), the Mariners have two good catchers going forward. If they want, they can give Clement another year at AAA Tacoma, where he hit .275/.370/.497, to improve his below average defense. On the other hand, they could employ both in the majors to ensure themselves a fresh catcher throughout the season. Depending on the circumstances, they might want to start the transition sooner rather than later. The circumstances I speak of is Johjima's contract. It runs out at the end of the 2008 season. At that point, he'll have three years of service, which would make him a protected arbitration-eligible player, but it depends on his contract. Quite a few Japanese imports get major league contracts that grant them free agency at the end regardless of their service time. If he does become a free agent, maybe the Mariners should split the time between Johjima and Clement for the first half. If Clement proves himself, the Mariners could look to trade Johjima because teams are always in need of a quality catcher. Either way, it's an enviable situation to be in.

The Mariners are also pretty well set in the outfield. Even if they let Jose Guillen walk, they'll be all right. Guillen's situation is a complicated one, so let's first talk about the other guys. Ichiro Suzuki was given a contract extension midseason that will keep him in Seattle through 2012 at $17M per. While I'd argue that Ichiro won't be worth that much on the field in 2012 at 38 years old, he could be that rare speedy player that holds up as he ages. It's his nationality that makes him worth $17M per season even if he declines like a normal player. Raul Ibanez is also signed through 2008 at $5.5M. Ichiro and Ibanez will be joined by Adam Jones and possibly Wladimir Balentien. Adam Jones's second AAA season was very impressive as he hit .314/.382/.586 and proved he doesn't need any more minor league seasoning. He should be starting in 2008. Balentien is also ready to join him in the big leagues as he hit .291/.362/.509 at AAA Tacoma. It should be interesting to see if the Mariners make room for in the outfield, which brings us back to Guillen. Given their other options, the Mariners will probably turn down Guillen's club option of $8M, but Guillen could then exercise his player option of $5M. Guillen is easily worth that on the open market. The Mariners could do one of four things: buy him out at $0.5M, try to trade him, keep him around as a bench player and deal with his temper tantrums, or keep him and play him at the expense of Balentien. If the Mariners are dedicated to the long-term, they should try to trade him and play Ibanez, Ichiro, Jones, and Balentien in the outfield and at DH full-time in '08.

J.J Putz has put up what is quite possibly the best relief season this year with a 1.45 ERA over 68.1 innings while racking up 39 saves. Other relievers with good seasons this year include Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, who have combined for an ERA of 3.30 over 106.1 innings. However, Morrow was a first round pick in 2006, and he was viewed as a future starter, not a reliever. After spending a year relieving in the majors, it's hard to understand how he's going to build up the arm strength to be a major league starting pitcher. Are the Mariners going to put him in the AA or AAA rotation next season or will he continue his development at the major leagues out in the bullpen? It should be interesting to watch.

Speaking of potential starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez is a current starting pitcher and a potential #1 in the future. He'll only be 22 a week into the 2008 season, and so far, he's only shown flashes of his potential dominance. If he's over his arm issues from the beginning of the season, could 2008 be the season he makes the leap forward?

Weaknesses

A year after trading a power arm in Rafael Soriano for the mediocre Horacio Ramirez, it is possible that Ramirez doesn't return to the rotation next year. A 7.16 ERA over 20 starts has that effect on people. Just ask Jeff Weaver, who is trying his best to duplicate Ramirez with a 6.30 ERA over 138.2 innings. I can't imagine the Mariners making the same type of commitments heading into 2008, which means that they'll be on the market for a 4th and 5th starter to fill out the rotation. Unfortunately, there's not much available. The Mariners might want to get creative on the trade market and see what they can find. Maybe that's what they can target in a Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro (if a player waives a no-trade clause, is it reinstated after the trade? if so, that could be a problem), and/or Johjima trade.

On the right side of the infield, the Mariners have some long-term contracts given out to players putting up terrible seasons. Richie Sexson has only hit .205/.295/.399 for the $14M he's being paid, and Jose Lopez has hit .257/.287/.353 and is under contract for three more seasons. Sexson is due another $14M next year, so he'll probably be given multiple chances to prove that 2007 was an aberration. When he couldn't get the job done this year, the Mariners looked to Ben Broussard, but he hasn't done much better, only hitting .271/.323/.406. Broussard is arbitration-eligible in the offseason, and the Mariners could choose to not tender him an offer as he was already making $3.55M this season. Arbitration doesn't usually lead to cuts in pay. With Lopez, money isn't the problem as he's only due $4.4M total over the next three years with a $4.5M option in 2011 ($0.25M buyout). The problem is that there aren't many other options. At 23, he's still got time to prove that he can handle big league pitching.

Overall

Given their outfield depth, their 2008 season depends on a rebound from Richie Sexson and finding a couple of quality arms to put at the back of the rotation. If those things happen, the Mariners will once again be in contention. If King Felix takes a leap forward, they'll be tough to beat. It's going to be tough to find those two starting pitchers, but the Mariners are rebounding after three straight losing seasons heading into 2007.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.

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I probably won't be getting to second basemen until next week, but keep the comments coming.