Birk's Blog
by: birk
birk's posts about:
Ray Durham  MLB > NL Central > Milwaukee Brewers > Ray Durham
more Ray Durham posts
Page 1 of 1
NL Transaction Grades (Part I)
Aug 06, 2008 | 7:04PM | report this

I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the first 11 teams (by team name).

Houston Astros – D

Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke

Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick

I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline, and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among Astros transactions for some time.

 

Atlanta Braves – B-

Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark Teixeira

This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion. While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either. While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find a taker for Mark Kotsay.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – A

Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL

Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond

As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.

 

St. Louis Cardinals – D

While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700 at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.

 

Chicago Cubs – A

Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson

Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks – C

Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension

Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner

Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio

Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with a $15.5 million option for 2013

Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the $48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense. Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not delay the decision as long as possible?

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – I

Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan

Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche and RHP Bryan Morris

With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan, the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36 with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.

Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In 2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo than Blake and Ramirez.

 

San Francisco Giants – C

The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August. Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s going to be a while before there is.

 

Florida Marlins – C+

Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez

While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.

 

New York Mets – D+

Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner outfielder.

 

Washington Nationals – D-

Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension

Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch

Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada

I already covered the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal. Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?

In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch, the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you scratching your head.

I should have the last five teams up by the end of the weekend.

3 Comments | Add a comment   categories: MLB, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Ray Durham, Rickie Weeks, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers, Juan Pierre, Andy LaRoche, Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Cristian Guzman, Emilio Bonifacio
 
Another One Bites the Dust: San Francisco Giants
Sep 15, 2007 | 6:38AM | report this

Barry Bonds & Friends just aren't capable of putting enough runs on the board to support their great rotation. At 13.5 games out of the wild card, the Giants elimination number is at 2, and it is time to officially write them off.

The Good

Barry Bonds continues to defy Father Time and put up fantastic numbers. Although it doesn't approach his 2001-2004 numbers, Bonds leads the majors by a wide margin in OBP at .482 (David Ortiz is second at .435) and is tenth in SLG at .568, which means he trails only Alex Rodriguez in OPS (1.050 to A-Rod's 1.084).

Since the rest of the lineup has been unable to pull their weight, that leaves the pitching staff, which has been tremendous. Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum, and Noah Lowry give the Giants one of the best top four in baseball, and Kevin Correia has been lights-out since joining the rotation at the end of August with a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings and 4 starts. If Correia keeps it up next year, this rotation could be the best in the majors.

The Bad

The infield (minus Ryan Klesko) has been absolutely terrible offensively. Rich Aurilia has hit .251/.301/.370, Ray Durham .216/.297/.349, Omar Vizquel .243/.303/.300, and Pedro Feliz .251/.292/.418. Yeah, the best OBP of those four is Omar Vizquel's .303, which is downright terrible. It gets worse. Durham and Aurilia are both under contract for next year, and the Giants have ignored Feliz's OBP the past few years so he could be back as well. Given the free agent market (David Eckstein might be the only option at short), the Giants might even want to bring back Vizquel.

Looking Forward

Given the state of the Giants' farm system, their best option might be to play for 2008. If they don't, there's quite a few losing seasons on the horizon. Of course, to play for 2008 would involve resigning Barry Bonds and signing Alex Rodriguez to an enormous contract. Without these two moves, I doubt that the Giants can contend in '08, and then they probably won't contend until 2010, at the earliest. An A-Rod signing would change a lot for this team.

2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: San Francisco Giants, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry, Barry Zito, Kevin Correia, Matt Cain, Rich Aurilia, Omar Vizquel, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, David Eckstein
 
Fantasy Rankings: Second Basemen
Mar 06, 2007 | 7:10PM | report this

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.


As always, bring on the comments.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.

10 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Chase Utley, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Orlando Hudson, Ray Durham, Rickie Weeks, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Freel, Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Freddy Sanchez, Luis Castillo, Julio Lugo, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips
 
« Continue reading Birk's Blog
Page 1 of 1
ABOUT ME


birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
Time stamping is done in Pacific Time.