When I started this series, I said, “With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale.” Ten days later, it has. Due to this, I plan on keeping things much shorter from now on.

Impact Shortstops to Be Traded

Michael Young would be here, but he has a no-trade clause in his contract. Can you believe that he’s scheduled to make $16M every year from 2009 to 2013?

Contenders Needing a Shortstop

As I mentioned in my last article about the second base market, the Cubs should go after Mark Ellis instead of Brian Roberts as has been rumored. Without making a move, their best options up the middle are Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno. With Roberts, they could move DeRosa over to short, but I think a duo of Ellis at short and DeRosa at second would be a better solution. Whether or not Oakland will give up Ellis in a trade is a different story, but I think they should.

Next Year’s Free Agents

The Dodgers should try to extend Rafael Furcal. Sure, they’ve got a major-league shortstop in the minors with Chin-Lung Hu, but they’ve also got a second base spot opening up after the season with Jeff Kent’s free agency. One of them can move over to second, and Furcal is the type of guy worth an extension.

David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera are also free agents following the year, but none are worth worrying about before the season ends. Eckstein wasn’t worth a multi-year deal two months ago, and nothing’s changed since. The same can be said about Uribe three months ago. As for Cabrera, he’s a good player when he keeps his batting average up, but when it drops like it did in 2004 and 2005, he’s a below average shortstop. That’s not the type of guy that gets a new deal before his contract expires.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Obviously, Hanley Ramirez deserves a contract similar, yet more lucrative, than the 4-year, $23.5M contract Jose Reyes got in August 2006, but something tells me that the Florida Marlins aren’t about to fork out anything more than they have to pay him in 2008.

J.J. Hardy will be a free agent following the 2010 season, and he has exchanged arbitration figures with the Brewers ($3.05M/$2.4M) for this year. Until he proves that he can stay healthy and productive for consecutive seasons, I wouldn’t worry about locking up his future. If he can put together anything resembling his 2007 in 2008, it will be time to open the check book for a three-year deal.

Recap

Michael Young has a surprising amount of guaranteed money coming his way. The Cubs need to improve their shortstop, and Mark Ellis is the guy for the job. Rafael Furcal and Hanley Ramirez deserve a contract extension, but J.J. Hardy needs to prove himself one more time. David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera should all become free agents before they sign their next contract.

Unlike the team I covered yesterday, today's team is actually eliminated from the playoff chase. The New York Yankees only need one win or one Tiger loss to eliminate the Detroit Tigers. In the other league, the Los Angeles Dodgers are officially eliminated after last night's loss and Padre victory.

Strengths

Contrary to what Jeff Kent thinks, the youngsters are this team's greatest strength. Kent is frustrated and mistakenly taking it out on the young guys' inexperience, although the youngsters have been a lot better than the veterans they're replacing. Kent has hinted at retirement in the offseason, but if he chooses to return and the Dodgers exercise their $9M team option, he'll continue to be one of the best hitting second baseman in the league. The option should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to exercise, and given general manager Ned Colletti's affinity for veterans, it should be picked up.

As for the youngsters, there's catcher Russell Martin (.297/.380/.472 at 24), first baseman James Loney (.335/.384/.538 at 23), shortstop Chin-Lung Hu (.318/.337/.505 as a 23 year old in AAA and possibly the best defensive shortstop currently in the majors), third baseman Andy LaRoche (.309/.399/.589 as a 23 year old in AAA, including .365/.447/.817 since the All-Star break), outfielders Matt Kemp (.331/.364/.509 at 22), Andre Ethier (.288/.353/.458 at 25), and Delwyn Young (.337/.384/.571 as a 25 year old in AAA). Given the statistics, all seven of these guys deserve an everyday job in the majors. Once you get the scouting opinion, six of these seven deserve an everyday job (Delwyn Young is considered a fourth outfielder in the end). Taking those six along with Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre, it would be nice if they could find a way to get all but Pierre on the field everyday (teams need to learn that the ability to get on base is more important than the ability to take the next one). However, that would leave them with five infielders and two outfielders, which keeps Pierre in the lineup. So who gets kept out of the everyday lineup? It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dodgers make the mistake of 2007 all over again and play Nomar Garciaparra, Pierre, Furcal, and Kent at the expense of LaRoche, Hu, and Young. It would be nice to see the team bench Garciaparra and trade Furcal for some pitching help since you can never have too much of that.

Moving to the rotation, the Dodgers are hoping for Jason Schmidt to make a full recovery in time for spring training, but everyone rehabs differently. Since Schmidt suffered a shoulder injury, his velocity will let you know if he's ready. The rest of the rotation will be made up of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and 23 year old Chad Billingsley (that Logan White really knows how to run a scouting department). The fifth spot in the rotation could be up for grabs among Esteban Loaiza, Mark Hendrickson, and Eric Stults. If you're wondering where all the young arms are (other than Billingsley), 19 year old Clayton Kershaw is regarded as the best left handed pitcher in the minor leagues, if not the best regardless of handedness. Kershaw made it up to AA, but after only five starts there, he's probably due to return to Jacksonville for next year. Splitting time between Low-A and AA, he had a 2.95 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 122 innings.

In the later innings, the Dodgers have turned to Joe Beimel, 23 year old Jonathan Broxton, and Takashi Saito to hammer things down, and they haven't disappointed. Beimel will be due arbitration, and I think Saito hasn't even reached arbitration yet. Given that, all three will be back next year and could be joined by 23 year old Jonathan Meloan. Meloan has not pitched well in his four innings in the majors, but at AAA, he dominated with 91 strikeouts and a 2.03 ERA over 66.2 innings.

Weaknesses

Other than the aforementioned fifth starter spot and Colletti's affinity for experience over talent, the Dodgers don't have many weaknesses. Sometimes, a great scouting department really makes the general manager's job much easier.

Overall

The Dodgers are set up well for both 2008 and the foreseeable future. Following next year, they'll have some decisions to make with Kent (free agency), Lowe (free agency), and Penny (2009 team option for $8.75M), but the Dodgers are in an enviable position going forward.

In another story that is far from breaking news (see last post regarding Homer Bailey, which turned out right), Juan Pierre is downright terrible. But I could have told you that years ago as he hasn't had an OBP over .330 since 2004. Anyway, I'm watching the Mets/Dodgers game on CW11, and they mentioned that Jack McKeon always batted Pierre leadoff and Luis Castillo second. Now that Grady Little is batting Juan Pierre second, they think that second is better suited to Pierre's tastes and even use OBP as a reason. However, if he doesn't have an OBP good enough for leadoff, why is it all of a sudden good enough for second?

I took the Dodgers lineup from Sunday and plugged it into the great Lineup Analysis tool available over at Baseball Musings. Here are the results.

Actual Lineup

Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Luis Gonzalez
Nomar Garciaparra
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Eric Stults

Lineup Analysis Best Lineup

Luis Gonzalez
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Nomar Garciaparra
Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Eric Stults

I'm surprised that Furcal is placed in the seven spot, but further inspection makes me believe that he is best suited there. Nomar, Furcal, and Pierre all have lower OBP than the rest of the lineup, so it makes sense that they're at the bottom of the lineup, consuming the fewest at-bats. One interesting by-product of this lineup is that Furcal and Pierre are freer to run at the bottom of the order because the risk is lower without the big bats coming up, and the reward isn't as minimized as the risk because the on-base guys are coming up at the top of the order. You don't need power guys to drive in guys from second after their steals. A single will bring them home just as well as a double or homer.

While I did use the analysis tool in trying to find the optimal lineup, it should be noted that their actual best lineup would look something like this.

Optimal Lineup

James Loney
Matt Kemp
Luis Gonzalez
Russell Martin
Wilson Betemit
Andre Ethier
Rafael Furcal
Jeff Kent
Pitcher

The Dodgers should just realize that the Pierre and Nomar signings are sunk costs, just as they were when the ink was still wet. Bench those two guys and play the better young players (Kemp and Betemit), who on top of being better also have potential to get even better. Betemit has gotten a raw deal due to his low batting average, but his OBP and SLG (.366 and .497) haven't taken the same hit. Just as they were at the start of the season and just as they were at the time of the signings, Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra are overrated and deserve to be on the bench watching Matt Kemp and Wilson Betemit put nearly one more run on the board every night (5.565 to 4.770 runs per game according to the Lineup Analysis tool).

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

It took a while, but the series lives on. I want to get this finished quickly, so most of my comments will be held back to save time.

Replacement Level
85 R, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 16 SB, .284 AVG

First Tier
1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets
2. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Second Tier
3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies
5. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles

Third Tier
6. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers
7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers
8. Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays
9. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers

Hall and Glaus obviously only qualify as shortstops, but they do provide mega-power at the position. They are held back by lack of RBI opportunities (Hall will probably bat second) and AVG, respectively.

Fourth Tier
10. Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals
11. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks

Lopez could be eligible at second in mid-April, but I'm in denial and listing him at SS. I just can't believe that the Nationals will actually choose to start Cristian Guzman over Ron Belliard. If Lopez qualifies at second, I would place him at the bottom of the second tier of second basemen.

Fifth Tier
13. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
15. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians

If J-Honey returns to 2005 form, he will zoom up the charts. If he performs like last year, he's not worth having in fantasy leagues. Somewhere in between sounds right to me.